Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the market is more influenced by macro - expectations. Wait for the adjustment opportunity after the macro - positive factors are exhausted, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [6][7][72]. Summary by Directory Report Summary - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% on December 11, 2025, the third rate cut in 2025, and will start "Reserve Management Purchases" on December 12, with the first - month purchase of about $40 billion in short - term Treasury bonds. The central government emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy for 2026 [6]. - Domestically, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and the output increase is limited. In December, although it is the traditional consumption off - season, the overall consumption has not declined significantly, with consumption resilience remaining. The aluminum - water ratio remains high, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered a continuous accumulation stage. As of December 11, the inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday. The current low inventory level still supports aluminum prices [6]. Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The Fed's rate cut led to a decline in the US dollar index, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has not entered continuous accumulation, and the overseas aluminum supply - demand remains tight [10]. - **Bearish factors**: December is the traditional consumption off - season [10]. Data Analysis - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In October 2025, the domestic output of aluminum bauxite was 4.7723 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. The supply in Henan has recovered, while that in Shanxi is still tight. In October, the import volume was 13.77 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.30% and a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. With the end of the rainy season in Guinea, the import volume is expected to increase [21][24]. - **Alumina**: In October, the output was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of November 13, the operating capacity was 89.559 million tons/year, with the weekly operating rate dropping 0.81% to 81.18%. As of the end of November, the operating capacity was 96.6 million tons/year, a month - on - month increase of 200,000 tons/year [29]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the output increased by 1.13% year - on - year and 3.52% month - on - month. The aluminum - water ratio increased by 1.4 percentage points to 77.7%. As of the end of October, the operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. In November, production of some enterprises may be restricted by environmental protection policies [32]. - **Aluminum Processing**: The weekly operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 61.8%, continuing the weak off - season trend [34]. - **Inventory and Price**: As of December 11, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from Monday. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly to 520,800 tons, while the SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 7.25% to 123,630 tons in the week of December 5. On December 11, the Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum average price premium was - 60 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was - 28.51 US dollars/ton, with both premium ranges narrowing [44][48][52]. - **Recycled Aluminum**: In November, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 682,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,800 tons. As of December 5, the operating rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry was 61.5%, unchanged from the previous week. In October, the import volume of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 33.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.7% year - on - year. As of December 12, the weekly social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy was 73,100 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week, and the in - plant inventory was 58,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week [56][60][64][68]. Market Outlook - For aluminum alloy, the shortage of scrap aluminum is difficult to ease, with cost support remaining. The demand side has full orders during the peak season, and the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [70]. - The current fundamentals have no significant contradictions, and the market is more influenced by macro - expectations. Wait for the adjustment opportunity after the macro - positive factors are exhausted, and it is recommended to take a bullish approach on dips [72].

来源：智通财经 今日，人民银行公布11月金融数据。数据显示，2025年11月末社会融资规模存量为440.07万亿元，同比 增长8.5%。其中，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款余额为267.42万亿元，同比增长6.3%。 11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额112.89万亿元，同比 增长4.9%。流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。前十一个月净投放现金9175亿元。 贷款方面，11月末，本外币贷款余额274.84万亿元，同比增长6.3%。月末人民币贷款余额271万亿元， 同比增长6.4%。从结构上看，普惠小微贷款余额为35.88万亿元，同比增长11.4%，制造业中长期贷款余 额为14.94万亿元，同比增长7.7%，上述贷款增速均高于同期各项贷款增速。 数据显示，初步统计，2025年前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿 元。 权威专家对智通财经记者解读，今年以来，宏观政策加大逆周期调节力度，对提振内需、稳定经济发挥 了积极作用，也为金融总量合理增长提供了支撑。 "当前社会融资规模和M2增速比名义GDP增速高出约 ...

新华社消息，中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。保持必 要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，加强财政科学管理，优化财政支出结构，规范税收优惠、财政 补贴政策。要优化地方政府专项债券用途管理，继续发挥新型政策性金融工具作用，有效激发民间投资 活力。高质量推进城市更新。坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能。深化拓展"人工智能+"，完善人工 智能治理，创新科技金融服务。深入推进中小金融机构减量提质，持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革。 责任编辑：山上 关键词阅读：逆周期 投资 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 继往开来——学习中央经济工作会议 摘要 宏观经济 2025年12月12日 | 宏观国债研究员：刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3063825 | 交易咨询证号： Z0016580 联系方式： liuyang18036@greend h.com 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年12月12日星期五 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 12月11日闭幕的中央经济工作会议对2026年经济工作做出指导 。延续了去年的"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针 对性协同性"，"要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度 宽松的货币政策"。相比去年提出的"加强超常规逆周期调节"，今 年表述为"加大逆周期和跨周期调节"，新提出"发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应"。我们理解可能会从超常规过渡到常规，更加重视 跨周期调节，也就是从更长远的视角来制定中短期的政策。 对于财政政策我们关注到"保持必要"四个字，我们预计2026 年财政赤字率可能会保持在4%，新增地方政府债务规模约4万亿元， 超长期国 ...

核心观点 中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。在12月政治局会议的指导精神下开展工作部署。我们认 为在经济工作稳中求进的同时，整体政策取向把握两条主线： 一是更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，二是加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。 如果国际经贸斗争超预期，则政策取向将加大逆周期调节力度；如果外部环境和外需基本稳定，则更侧 重于跨周期调节。 内容摘要 >>一、坚持内需为主导 >>二、创新驱动壮大新动能 会议强调"坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能"。2026年作为十五五开局之年，有望进一步加快发展新 质生产力。"十五五"建议稿对新兴产业和未来产业的发展方向做出指引，在新兴产业方面，加快新能 源、新材料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展；在未来产业方面，推动量子科技、生物 制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等成为新的经济增长点。 会议提出，制定一体推进教育科技人才发展方案。我们认为教育要更好地为"新质生产力"服务，培养与 科技创新相适应的人才。科技创新已成为影响产业变革的最大变量，这些都对教育的学科专业设置提出 了更高要求。 投资于人将与科技创新相结合，重点培育科技人才，响应 ...

定调稳中求进、提质增效，重提跨周期调节。 和去年12月的政治局会议相比，更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策的政策基调没有变化。最大的不同在于，去年的"稳中求进，以 进促稳"换成了"稳中求进、提质增效"，"加强超常规逆周期调节"换成了"加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度"。在经历今年的超常规政策后，即便国际经贸环境迅速变化，去年的政策目标，尤 其是稳住股市这一目标，基本顺利完成，明年经济增长的高质量就成为了政策关注的重点。通 稿中的新提法"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应"，和去年充实政策工具箱的表述相比，也说 明明年将更加注重政策落地的效果。 政策节奏上，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。 这一提法最早出现在今年4月的政治局 会议通稿中，本次重提也表明决策层对经贸斗争的长期性有充分认知。经历今年的几轮谈判 后，中美经贸关系逐渐趋于稳定，因此本次通稿中对"外部冲击"着墨不多，但明年临近美国中 期选举，经贸形势仍有生变可能性。当国际经贸斗争趋于激烈时，需要下更大力气稳定国内经 济，而当国际经贸斗争趋于缓和时，需要进一步推动结构性改革等中长期议题，这为理解明年 的增量政策节奏提供了参考。 Q： 请问重阳投资， 如何 ...

Core Points - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, outlined key strategies for economic work in 2026, emphasizing the need to fully tap economic potential and focus on high-quality development [1] - The conference identified five "musts" for economic work, with a strong emphasis on internal demand and innovation as primary growth drivers [1] Group 1: Internal Demand and Consumption - The conference highlighted the importance of releasing consumption potential through various measures, including the implementation of special actions to boost consumption and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims to significantly increase the resident consumption rate, focusing on enhancing consumption capacity, willingness, and optimizing supply structure [2] - Policies introduced by six departments aim to provide a clear path for consumption growth, emphasizing service consumption and targeted supply for different demographics [2][3] Group 2: Investment and Infrastructure - The conference addressed the decline in infrastructure investment in the second half of 2025, proposing an increase in central budget investment and optimizing the implementation of key projects [4] - Infrastructure investment in 2026 is expected to focus on high-quality development, with emphasis on new infrastructure, regional coordination, and enhancing public service infrastructure [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The conference called for optimizing supply and addressing "involution" competition, with a focus on expanding effective supply and improving industry governance [5][6] - The establishment of a unified national market and the elimination of local protectionism are key strategies to enhance competition and improve market conditions [6] Group 4: Macroeconomic Policy - The conference outlined two main directions for macroeconomic policy: increasing counter-cyclical adjustments and enhancing the quality and efficiency of policies [7] - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with a projected fiscal deficit rate of around 4% and a focus on multiple objectives, including stabilizing growth and supporting innovation [8] - Monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, balancing the need for economic stability and reasonable price recovery while supporting fiscal policy efforts [9]

12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 会议首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述，还首次提出将"存量政策和增量政 策"纳入宏观政策取向一致性评估。 在宏观政策相关的诸多新表述背后，多位受访者认为，明年的政策制定可能不会过度关注短期内的刺激 效果，更多着眼于"十五五"整体经济的长远发展规划，既关注新增政策的出台，也重视已有政策的落实 落细，体现对宏观政策协同以及落地效果的重视。 招联首席研究员董希淼也指出，"灵活"表明将根据内外部环境变化和经济发展需要，适时运用货币政策 工具，该出手时就出手；"高效"表明运用降准降息等工具时，要更多考虑政策有效性和针对性，既要加 大力度支持经济增长，也要加强防范资金空转、地方债务等风险。同时，要进一步畅通货币政策传导， 推动金融"活水"以更高效率滴灌实体经济和普通大众。 货币政策空间进一步加大 节奏将呈现小幅、灵活的特点 每年中央经济工作会议对于降息降准等工具运用的表述，都是市场关注的焦点。此次会议明确，明年货 币政策将继续适度宽松，但首次使用了"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具"的表述。 在业内看来，此次会议通过"灵活高效"的四字表述，释放出了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 outlines the economic work for 2025 and sets the direction for 2026, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic demand in the short term and strengthening internal capabilities in the medium to long term [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy maintains a "more proactive and effective" tone, focusing on internal conditions and medium to long-term issues, with a shift in external environment assessment from "adverse" in 2024 to neutral in 2025 [1] - It is expected that the macroeconomic policy will continue the positive tone established in 2025 into 2026 [1] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Investment - The emphasis is on domestic demand, with clear strategies for investment and service consumption, aiming to "stop the decline and stabilize investment," while maintaining a stable narrow deficit ratio [1] - The use of new policy financial tools will continue to support investment, and reforms will be implemented to promote service consumption, stimulating demand through supply [1] Group 3: Social Stability - Ensuring stable livelihoods remains a priority, with measures in healthcare, education, employment, and medical care, indicating a focus on both the quantity and quality of supply to stabilize livelihoods [1] - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain relatively stable, balancing growth stability and expectations [1] Group 4: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy will continue to be more proactive, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and expenditure levels, with the deficit ratio expected to remain stable in 2026 [2] - There will be a focus on standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies, aiming to address local protectionism and "involution" competition [2] Group 5: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will continue to adopt an "appropriately loose" stance, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [2] - The shift from "timely" to "flexible and efficient" indicates a greater focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy, with an emphasis on both short-term and long-term adjustments to address structural and deep-seated economic issues [2]

Group 1: Market Interest Rate and Bond Information - DRO01 closed at 1.28 with a -1.14bp change, DR007 at 1.45 with a -0.05bp change, GC001 at 1.26 with a -15.50bp change, GC007 at 1.51 with a 0.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with a 0.20bp change, and LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a 0.00bp change [3] - 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.34 with a 0.70bp change, 5 - year at 1.62 with a -0.10bp change, 10 - year at 1.83 with a -1.40bp change, and 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.13 with a -1.30bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 180.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 62.2 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Central Bank Policy and Economic Outlook - This week, there are 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 107.6 billion, 156.3 billion, 79.3 billion, 180.8 billion, and 139.8 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The Political Bureau Meeting of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that next year's economic work should adhere to making progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency, continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [4] Group 3: Stock Index and Futures Market - The CSI 300 closed at 4552, down 0.86%; the SSE 50 at 2977, down 0.39%; the CSI 500 at 7083, down 1.02%; and the CSI 1000 at 7312, down 1.30%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8571 trillion yuan, an increase of 78.6 billion yuan from the previous day [5] - IF当月 closed at 4540, down 0.8%; IH当月 at 2970, down 0.4%; IC当月 at 7074, down 0.7%; and IM当月 at 7305, down 0.9% [5] - IF trading volume was 106,663, down 13.1%; IF open interest was 269,076, down 2.7%; IH trading volume was 46,276, down 9.6%; IH open interest was 93,141, down 3.7%; IC trading volume was 112,902, down 3.1%; IC open interest was 248,093, down 1.6%; IM trading volume was 191,043, up 7.7%; IM open interest was 368,357, down 0.2% [5] Group 4: Market Analysis and Investment Suggestions - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected overnight, but there was a large divergence within the Fed on the future rate - cut rhythm, with contradictions between inflation recovery and employment pressure [6] - The stock index weakened in a volatile manner throughout the day yesterday. The Politburo Meeting released limited incremental information recently, and the Central Economic Work Conference is expected to make more specific arrangements for next year's economic work [6] - In the short term, be vigilant against the "buy - the - rumor, sell - the - news" adjustment after the meeting policies are implemented. In the long run, the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year, providing a layout window. Investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and use the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [6] Group 5: Futures Contract Premium and Discount Information - IF premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 12.61%, 6.54%, 4.50%, and 4.15% respectively [7] - IH premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 11.08%, 4.92%, 1.89%, and 1.87% respectively [7] - IC premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 5.47%, 9.60%, 9.83%, and 10.63% respectively [7] - IM premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 4.61%, 12.37%, 12.55%, and 12.91% respectively [7]