她分析称，尽管当前市场预期与荷兰合作银行均倾向于美联储将在9月启动降息，以应对逐渐疲软的劳 动力市场，但鲍威尔仍有可能在讲话中避免释放明确的宽松信号，转而强调通胀风险或维持政策灵活 性。这一谨慎态度或将短暂提振美元，延缓其下行趋势。弗利强调，货币政策路径仍取决于经济数据的 演变，而鲍威尔的措辞将成为短期美元走势的关键风向标。 周四（8月21日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报98.29，涨幅0.04%，开盘价为98.24。荷兰合作银行外汇 策略师简·弗利（Jane Foley）在最新报告中指出，若美联储主席鲍威尔在即将召开的杰克逊霍尔年会上 对降息议题表现出审慎立场，市场投机者可能迅速回补美元空头头寸，从而为美元带来阶段性支撑。 今天，美元指数短线阻力在98.40--98.45，短线重要阻力在98.55--98.60。今天美元指数短线支持在98.05- -98.10，短线重要支持在97.90--97.95。可以在98.60---98.05的区间下限买入，有效破位20个点止损，目 标在区间的上限。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.5%, with two members voting against this decision [1] - Federal Reserve members expressed concerns about rising threats to the U.S. economy, highlighting that economic growth in the first half of the year was "tepid" [1] - Despite low unemployment rates, inflation remains high, with members pointing out uncertainties related to tariffs and the potential for inflation expectations to become unanchored [1] Group 2 - The majority of Federal Reserve members are more concerned about inflation risks than labor market conditions, leading to the decision to keep interest rates unchanged [1] - Only Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller voted against maintaining the current rate, advocating for a 25 basis point cut to prevent further weakening of the job market [1] - Since January, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly held rates steady, facing criticism from President Trump, who has pressured the Fed to lower rates [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve, particularly his call for the resignation of Fed Governor Cook, indicating potential legal implications for Cook [1] - The minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting reveal that inflation risks have overshadowed concerns about the labor market, leading to internal divisions regarding interest rate policies [1] - NATO member countries reaffirmed their support for Ukraine during a recent video conference, emphasizing the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace [1] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising from around 3311 to a peak of 3351, driven by Trump's demands regarding the Federal Reserve [2] - The market's reaction to the Fed's meeting minutes was anticipated, with gold showing a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart [2] - Despite the recent bullish trend, the medium-term outlook for gold remains bearish, with targets set at 3245 and potentially down to 3000-2950 [5] Group 3 - Upcoming economic data releases, including initial jobless claims and manufacturing statistics for August, are expected to influence market sentiment [6] - The market is at a critical juncture, with potential resistance levels identified at 3358-60 and 3370-75, while support is seen at 3330 and 3320 [7] - The overall market behavior suggests a pattern of initial declines followed by recoveries, with traders preparing for potential volatility as the September Fed meeting approaches [9]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 index has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, reflecting investor sentiment shifting away from technology stocks towards sectors with relatively lower valuations [1] - The Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw declines of 0.24% and a slight increase of 0.04%, respectively [1] Technology Sector - Major technology stocks experienced widespread declines, with Intel dropping approximately 7% and other companies like Google, Amazon, Apple, and Tesla falling over 1% [1] - Microsoft, Nvidia, Netflix, Meta, and AMD also saw minor decreases [1] Retail Sector - Mixed retail earnings reports are influencing market evaluations, with Target's stock falling 6.3% after announcing a CEO change and maintaining its previously lowered annual guidance [1] - Estee Lauder's shares dropped 3.7% due to tariff-related challenges impacting its annual profit outlook [1] Construction and Materials - James Hardie Industries, a building materials supplier, saw its stock plummet over 34% after warning about ongoing challenges in the North American renovation and new construction markets [1] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.33%, with notable movements in popular Chinese stocks such as NetEase, which increased by 1.7%, while JD.com, Alibaba, and Pinduoduo saw minor declines [2] Commodities - The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil increased by $0.86, or 1.38%, closing at $63.21 per barrel [2] - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.99%, reaching $3391.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures increased by 1.49%, closing at $37.89 per ounce [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The July meeting minutes indicate that most officials believe inflation risks outweigh concerns about the labor market, with a consensus that "upward inflation risks are more severe" [2] - The Federal Budget Committee forecasts a federal budget deficit of $22.7 trillion over the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than earlier predictions by the Congressional Budget Office [1] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The New Zealand Reserve Bank lowered its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.00%, aligning with expectations [3] - The Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut its rate by 25 basis points to 5%, marking the fourth rate cut of the year [4] - The Swedish central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2%, consistent with expectations [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Eurozone economic growth may slow down this quarter, according to ECB President Lagarde, despite reduced uncertainty from US-EU agreements [2] - The UK's July CPI rose by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 3.6%, marking the fastest growth since January 2024 [5] - Japan's July exports fell by 2.6% year-on-year, the largest decline since February 2021, with a significant drop in automobile exports by 28.4% [5]

在7月货币政策会议上，大多数美联储官员强调通胀风险超过对劳动力市场的担忧，随着关税问题发 酵，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)内部分歧不断扩大。7月29日至30日会议纪要显示，官员们承认他们对 通胀上行和就业疲软感到担忧，但"多数与会者认为，在这两个风险中，通胀上行风险更大"。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the majority of Federal Reserve members believe that the risks associated with inflation outweigh those related to employment [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the Federal Reserve's focus on inflation management as a priority in their monetary policy decisions [1] - It suggests that the current economic environment is prompting a reassessment of the balance between inflation control and employment stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that most officials prioritize inflation risks over employment risks, suggesting a shift in focus towards managing inflationary pressures [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Inflation Risks - Majority of officials expressed that inflation risks are currently more significant than employment risks, indicating a potential tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation [1] Tariff Impact - Many officials noted that the effects of tariffs are becoming more apparent and will require time to fully manifest, suggesting ongoing economic adjustments related to trade policies [1]

Group 1 - The focus of investors is on the upcoming Federal Reserve annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, particularly the speech by Chairman Powell on Friday, which is expected to be a significant turning point for the gold market [2] - The release of the July Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes on Wednesday may provide further insights into the interest rate path, with concerns about the labor market increasing due to recent weaker-than-expected data [2] - If economic slowdown signals strengthen, expectations for interest rate cuts may rise, benefiting gold prices; conversely, a hawkish tone from Powell could compress gold's rebound potential [2] Group 2 - Currently, gold prices are experiencing weak support around $3,330, with a potential for a slight breakdown leading to further downward movement [1][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is under pressure, with a formation of a descending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart, and attention is on the support level around $3,310 [4] - The daily trend shows a narrow range of fluctuations, with short-term moving averages indicating a weak trend, suggesting a cautious approach to gold price movements [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The zinc industry is rated as "Pressured Downward" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The zinc market is under pressure and showing a downward trend, with various indicators such as prices and spreads reflecting this situation [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,360 yuan/ton, down 0.64%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,796.5 dollars/ton, down 1.62% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 95,738 lots, an increase of 12,516 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 10,973 lots, an increase of 3,256 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 96,755 lots, an increase of 20,408 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 193,998 lots, an increase of 3,010 lots [1] - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium/discount was -50 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -5.22 dollars/ton, down 4.69 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 32,538 tons, an increase of 12,518 tons; LME zinc inventory was 75,850 tons, a decrease of 475 tons [1] **News** - At the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, different institutions have different expectations for Powell's speech. Nomura expects no "clear commitment", BofA expects a hawkish stance, and Morgan Stanley expects emphasis on inflation risks [2] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of zinc is -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [2][3]