据央视新闻消息，当地时间9月17日，美联储最新的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要 显示，美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年 12月以来的首次降息。利率决议公布之后，美股出现波动，纳指一度跌超1%。截至收盘，三大指数涨 跌不一，道指涨0.57%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500指数跌0.1%。 理查德·罗伯茨称，这是一场牛市，而且抬头低头皆为牛市。 罗伯茨认为，这是个非常有趣的市场，连风险资产也是值得关注的。他补充道，"若看到加密货币等资 产借此腾飞，也毫不意外。" 0:00 南方财经记者 施诗、杨雨莱 "一旦美联储开启降息周期，将向全球市场打开流动性水龙头，对风险资产是利好。"纽约联储银行前信 贷风险主管理查德·罗伯茨(Richard Roberts)对南方财经记者表示。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates this year and next, supporting a bullish outlook for gold prices despite short-term fluctuations [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 17, gold prices opened at $3689.51 per ounce, initially declined to $3660 before rebounding, reaching a high of $3707 after the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut [3]. - Following the rate cut, gold prices dropped to a low of $3646.07 but closed at $3659.77, reflecting a daily decline of $29.74 or 0.81% [3][5]. - The market anticipates mixed outcomes from upcoming economic data, but overall, the sentiment leans towards supporting gold prices [5]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The current interest rate cut cycle is expected to lead to a total of three rate cuts (75 basis points) this year and one next year, which will likely drive gold prices higher [5]. - Factors such as global monetary policy easing, weakening of the US dollar credit system, persistent geopolitical risks, and institutional demand for gold are expected to sustain a bullish trend for gold [5][6]. - The target price for gold remains at $4200 or higher, indicating a strong bullish foundation for the commodity [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The weekly chart shows gold prices have consistently bounced off the midline support and are expected to maintain an upward trend, supported by the upper Bollinger Band [6]. - The daily chart indicates that despite a recent pullback, the overall upward trend remains intact, with higher lows suggesting bullish momentum [8]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3650 and $3640, while resistance levels are at $3685 and $3706 [9].

Group 1 - The global manufacturing investment is expected to rise, with a focus on overseas resource products, industrial goods, consumer goods in Europe and the US, and supply chain companies [1] - Resources with global pricing power include oil and gas, marine engineering, mining, and shipbuilding sectors [1] - Industrial goods with increasing overseas market share include engineering machinery, forklifts, and high-tech equipment [1] - Consumer goods, particularly hand tools in the US, showed significant performance during the last interest rate cut cycle [1] - Companies deeply involved in the global industrial supply chain are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The global PMI reached a 14-month high in August, with 18 out of 33 countries showing growth, particularly in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US [2] - Germany's fiscal stimulus has significantly impacted its manufacturing sector, with the manufacturing PMI rising above the 50 mark for the first time in August [2] - The US is promoting manufacturing return through external tariffs and internal tax cuts, leading to increased construction spending, with a focus on traditional industries like metal manufacturing [2] Group 3 - US manufacturing inventory levels are at historical lows, initiating a replenishment cycle after 20 months of active destocking [3] - Retailers are leading the destocking process, which is now transitioning into a replenishment trend, positively affecting manufacturing and wholesale sectors [3] - Different sub-sectors of machinery are experiencing varying levels of expansion, with construction machinery showing the strongest recovery [3] - The recovery in industrial goods is expected to be resilient and sustainable, while consumer goods are more sensitive to interest rates and have a stronger recovery potential [3]

今天凌晨，由于受到受美联储利率决议以及美联储鲍威尔讲话影响，金融市场出现极为剧烈的波动。美国 联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)周三宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率从4.25%-4.50%降至4.00%-4.25%， 符合市场预期。这是去年12月以来FOMC首次行动。FOMC去年曾实施三次降息，但之后一直"按兵不 动"。 回顾2015-2024年的六次美联储降息周期，黄金走势呈现明显规律性。在降息预期发酵阶段（政策落地前3 个月），金价平均上涨18%，如2019年6-9月期间累计涨幅达21%。唯一例外是2024年9月，由于降息幅度 超预期且伴随地缘冲突，黄金与风险资产出现同涨。而当前市场正处于"预期兑现"向"政策消化"过渡的敏 感期，历史经验提示需警惕短期回调风险。 美联储决议后，现货黄金一度飙升至3707.48美元/盎司，创下历史新高，但随着美元反弹，加之投资者获 利了结，金价自高位大幅下滑。在鲍威尔讲话后，金价一度跌至3646.00美元/盎司。 十年降息周期中的黄金"魔咒" | 日期 | 品种 | 方向 | 开仓时间 | 开仓点位 | 平仓点位 | 盛亏点 | 是否持仓过夜 | | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. The Canadian central bank also cut rates. Hong Kong aims to assist mainland tech firms in financing, promote RMB - denominated trading of Hong Kong stocks, and build a regional gold reserve hub [1]. - Gold has long - term upward drivers due to factors like the Fed's rate - cut cycle, weak U.S. employment data, and central banks' gold purchases, but short - term adjustments may occur after the expected rate cut [2]. - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of tight concentrate supply and high smelting output, along with mixed downstream demand [3]. - The Chinese stock index has entered a high - level consolidation phase in September. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun, with different index characteristics for offensive and defensive strategies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News of the Day - **International News**: On September 18, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, with the dot - plot indicating another 50 - basis - point cut in 2025 and a 2026 median rate of 3.4% [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Cyberspace Administration of China requires leading enterprises to take on the responsibility of tackling "neck - stuck" technologies in key areas like chips [6]. - **Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public comments on a mandatory national standard for intelligent connected vehicles' combined driving assistance systems. From January to July, the sales of passenger cars with combined driving assistance systems reached 7.7599 million, a 21.31% year - on - year increase [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.63%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.85%, ICE No. 11 sugar fell 1.93%, and other commodities had various changes in price on September 17 compared to September 16 [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance. The Chinese stock index rose, with the power equipment sector leading the gain and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.40 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased on September 16. September's trend is more volatile, and the market is in a high - level consolidation phase. The long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just started [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond falling to 1.77%. The central bank increased net reverse - repurchase operations. With the Fed's rate cut, the domestic central bank has more policy space, and the bond price has stabilized [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.52% at night. Eight countries decided to increase daily oil production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 - million - barrel voluntary cut may be partially or fully restored [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.67% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol inventory along the coast increased significantly. Methanol is short - term bearish [14]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Supply is increasing, but with the arrival of the peak consumption season, demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices rebounded. The current market is mainly driven by supply and demand. After continuous declines, the short - selling pressure has eased, and the stable oil price provides support. Terminal demand recovery may support the price rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures are consolidating. The inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased last week. The market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the future depends on consumption and policy changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated more after the Fed's rate - cut decision. Gold has long - term upward drivers but may face short - term adjustments [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell 0.84% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is high. Downstream demand is mixed, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell 0.76% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and smelting output is expected to rise. Short - term supply may exceed demand, and zinc prices may be weakly volatile [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is increasing, while demand shows a mixed trend. The inventory is decreasing. Futures prices may be highly volatile, and the price is under pressure from the expected resumption of production [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend at night. The short - term market is under pressure but also supported by policy expectations [23]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore demand is supported. Global iron ore shipments have decreased, and port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The steel market has a small supply - demand contradiction. The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is facing challenges, and the market is in a short - term adjustment phase [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The USDA report had a neutral - bearish impact on the market. With the improvement of Sino - U.S. trade relations, the domestic supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: The prices of oils and fats were weakly volatile at night. The MPOB report had a negative impact on palm oil, but the impact has been mostly digested. The market is expected to be volatile [28]. - **Sugar**: International raw sugar prices are expected to be weak due to increased supply. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventory but is also under pressure from imported sugar and new - season beet sugar. The domestic sugar price is expected to follow the international trend and be weak [29]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum due to supply pressure. The domestic cotton market is entering the new - flower acquisition period, and the price is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the selling - hedging pressure after the large - scale listing of new cotton [30]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was weak. During the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies' cargo - booking pressure increased, and price cuts intensified. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and attention should be paid to the follow - up price - cut rhythm of shipping companies [31].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant strength, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising over 4%, reaching a nearly four-year high, and the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.78%, approaching the important 27,000-point mark [1][2] - Major technology stocks such as SenseTime and Baidu saw increases of over 15%, while Alibaba rose by 5.28%, marking its highest level since October 2021, with a market capitalization returning to 300 billion HKD [1] - The positive market sentiment is driven by multiple factors, including favorable external conditions, anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) by leading internet companies [5][6][10] Group 2 - Fund companies believe that the Hong Kong stock market's recovery is supported by low valuations, smooth US-China trade negotiations, expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, accelerated domestic AI developments, and the relative scarcity of assets compared to A-shares [2][4] - The market is expected to benefit from a new round of interest rate cuts, with the potential for increased liquidity to attract more foreign investment into the Hong Kong market [6][10] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index remains low compared to other major global indices, providing an attractive investment opportunity despite recent price increases [6][12] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is particularly sensitive to global liquidity conditions, and the anticipated weakening of the US dollar could enhance the attractiveness of Hong Kong-listed companies to foreign investors [10][14] - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market has typically performed well in the 12 months following interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 31.7% [10] - Key sectors to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy vehicles, and technology, particularly in the context of AI and internet companies, which are expected to continue showing strong performance [14][15]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw collective gains on September 17, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.95% [1] - The A500 ETF (512050), which tracks the CSI A500 Index, rebounded with a rise of 0.88%, reaching a new historical high, and recorded a trading volume exceeding 4.9 billion yuan, leading its category [1] - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 18, aligning with market expectations, and indicated further cuts in the coming years, with a projected median rate of 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 [1] Group 2 - Multiple institutions released research reports suggesting that the current interest rate cut cycle differs from previous ones, with potential positive performance for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] - Huaxin Securities indicated that the current rate cut cycle is expected to be deeper and longer due to weak economic conditions, leading to a trend of opportunities in rate cut trading, benefiting risk assets and the AH market [1] - Bank of China Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market could benefit from global liquidity shifts and domestic profit turning points, with a focus on scarce technology assets and high-dividend state-owned enterprises during the rate cut cycle [1] Group 3 - The new generation core A500 ETF (512050) and A500 Enhanced ETF (512370) facilitate investors in strategically allocating to core A-share assets amid the global liquidity easing cycle initiated by the Fed [2] - The A500 ETF tracks the CSI A500 Index, employing a dual strategy of industry-balanced allocation and leading company selection, covering all 35 sub-industries and integrating value and growth attributes [2] - Compared to the CSI 300, the A500 ETF is overweight in new productivity sectors such as AI, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy, showcasing a natural "barbell" investment strategy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a weakening labor market and rising inflation, with expectations for further rate cuts in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales for August showed a strong performance with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, marking the 11th consecutive month of positive growth [2][16]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, while core inflation remains at 3.1% [2][16]. - China's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year in the first eight months, while expenditure grew by 3.1% [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates expectations for two more rate cuts this year and one in the next year, reflecting a relatively hawkish policy path [1][4]. - The recent rate cut has led to increased volatility in gold and silver prices, with market participants reacting to the Fed's decisions and economic indicators [2][16]. - The market is observing the impact of trade negotiations and the ongoing concerns regarding inflation from tariffs, which are influencing gold prices positively in the long term [2][17]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - In the copper market, prices have decreased by 0.84%, with tight supply conditions for concentrates and high growth in smelting output [3][18]. - The steel market is experiencing stable profitability, with iron and steel production recovering, while steel inventories are accumulating [22][23]. - The agricultural sector is facing mixed signals, with soybean planting area increased but production estimates lowered, leading to a neutral to bearish outlook for soybean prices [25]. Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is seeking public opinion on mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles, which is expected to be officially released next year [7]. - The National Cybersecurity Administration emphasizes the need for leading enterprises to focus on key technology breakthroughs, particularly in chip development [5]. Group 5: Commodity Market Trends - The crude oil market is adjusting production levels in response to stable global economic growth and favorable market fundamentals [11]. - The lithium carbonate supply is expected to see a slight increase, while demand for ternary materials is projected to decline, indicating potential price pressures in the lithium market [20]. - The rubber market is expected to experience short-term price fluctuations due to improved supply conditions and seasonal demand increases [13].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant strength recently, driven by multiple favorable factors, including low valuations, progress in US-China trade negotiations, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, accelerated advancements in AI, and the relative scarcity of assets compared to A-shares [2][5][6]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,908.39, up 469.88 points or 1.78%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index surged over 4%, reaching a nearly four-year high [4]. - Notable stock performances included SenseTime and Baidu, both rising over 15%, and Alibaba increasing by 5.28%, marking its highest level since October 2021 with a market capitalization returning to HKD 3 trillion [2]. Factors Driving Market Recovery - External environment disturbances have decreased, with smooth progress in US-China trade talks and reduced geopolitical risks, enhancing risk appetite for Hong Kong stocks [7]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which could lower the risk-free rate and support liquidity in the Hong Kong market [7]. - Accelerated AI advancements have been reported by leading internet companies, alleviating concerns about a slowdown in AI progress and boosting market sentiment [7]. Valuation and Investment Opportunities - Despite recent gains leading to valuation recovery, Hong Kong stocks still present attractive investment opportunities, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and new consumption sectors, which remain undervalued [15][16]. - The Hang Seng Index's current price-to-earnings ratio is considered low compared to other major global indices, indicating potential for further investment [8][16]. - The anticipated return of funds due to the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could attract more overseas capital into the Hong Kong market, enhancing its appeal [8]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch in the Hong Kong market include the innovative pharmaceutical industry, new energy, automotive, and technology sectors, particularly those related to AI and internet services [16][17]. - Historical data suggests that sectors such as semiconductors, automotive parts, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology tend to perform well in the 12 months following interest rate cuts, providing a reference for current investment strategies [17].

（原标题：时报图说｜历次降息周期 A股表现如何？） ...