周五公布的密歇根大学7月份的报告显示，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心反弹，在7月初升至五个月来的最高水平，人们对经济和通胀的预期持续改善，通 胀预期也显著回落。 美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值61.8，预期61.5，前值60.7。尽管如此，该消费者信心指数仍低于去年全年水平。 分项指数方面，7月密歇根大学消费者的现况指数初值66.8，预期63.9，前值64.8，改善明显；预期指数初值58.6，预期56.9，前值58.1。 不过，如果宣布进一步加征关税或通胀回升，消费者信心可能会受到抑制。 消费者对当前个人财务状况的看法有所改善，可能受益于美国股市的反弹。此次调查于7月14日结束，距美国总统特朗普签署预算案已有一周多时间，该预 算案包括延长减税并为打工小费收入者提供新减免。 此次消费者信心回升主要受到共和党人和政治独立人士信心改善的推动。 消费者信心影响着未来几个月的经济增长。悲观的消费者情绪会抑制支出水平、从而影响经济复苏，乐观的消费者情绪则有助于未来经济。 （文章来源：华尔街见闻） 市场备受关注的通胀预期方面，7月密歇根大学1年通胀预期初值4.4%，为2月以来的最低，低于预期的5%，前值为5%；5年通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Consumer Price Index indicates that tariffs are driving up goods inflation, which raises a "slight concern" for the Federal Reserve's Goolsbee [1] Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index data shows a direct correlation between tariffs and increased goods inflation [1]

雪佛龙(CVX.N)：石油行业将不得不像其他行业一样应对关税。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes the importance of avoiding an economic hard landing [1] - Ongoing tariffs may trigger a chain reaction of impacts on the economy [1] - There has been no observed increase in long-term inflation expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that tariffs are essentially a form of taxation [1] Group 1 - Waller emphasized that tariffs impact consumers by increasing prices on imported goods, which ultimately affects the overall economy [1] - The statement highlights the ongoing debate regarding the economic implications of tariffs and their role in trade policy [1]

美联储理事沃勒：想要看看关税在三个月和六个月对通胀的影响。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Strong U.S. economic data is putting pressure on gold prices, with the market awaiting clearer prospects regarding interest rate cuts and trade policies [1] Economic Data Impact - Gold futures experienced a slight increase amid relatively light trading, but are expected to decline slightly this week due to uncertain Fed rate cut outlook and resilient U.S. economic data [1] - Strong initial jobless claims and retail sales data have led the market to remain cautious ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting [1] Market Sentiment - Despite the pressure, gold prices have risen by 27% year-to-date, influenced by geopolitical risks and concerns over dollar-denominated assets due to a weakening dollar [1] - The recent price movements of gold have been characterized by a range-bound trading pattern as the market awaits further clarity on U.S. trade policies, tariffs, and interest rate cut prospects [1]

Economic Outlook - The market anticipates that tariffs will lead to economic growth slowdown and rising inflation in the coming months, but significant opportunities for long or short positions in overall duration have not been identified yet [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell advocates for patience regarding interest rates, suggesting that the Fed may prioritize employment goals and consider rate cuts later in the year as inflation is expected to decline [1] - Global central banks are adopting different policies in response to regional dynamics, leading to a general divergence between the economy and the markets [1] Government Bonds - In the Eurozone, the market expects the European Central Bank to further cut rates after a 175 basis point reduction, with long-term yields facing upward risks due to signs of demand recovery and low inflation expectations [3] - Japan is experiencing inflation pressure, with nominal GDP growth exceeding 5% year-on-year, but concerns over tariffs may hinder GDP growth and market confidence [3] - Investment opportunities may arise in UK government bonds as fears of fiscal irresponsibility lead to increased term premiums, despite signs of a weakening job market [3] Equities - The company maintains a moderate overweight in global equities, expecting positive earnings growth across major regions, although valuation remains a concern due to low risk premiums indicating market over-optimism [5] - Japanese equities are favored over U.S. equities due to valuation differences and ongoing corporate governance reforms, although potential policy headwinds may limit further overweighting [5] - U.S. equities are underweighted due to high valuations and market over-reliance on a few large companies for performance, with expectations for broad earnings growth being delayed [5][6] Credit Markets - Credit spreads have tightened back to historical lows after an initial widening, with a moderate overweight in credit spreads deemed acceptable in a non-recession scenario [8] - U.S. high-yield bonds have a total return of 6%-7%, attracting investors seeking arbitrage opportunities, supported by improved credit quality and low default rates [8] Commodities - The company holds a neutral view on commodities, with gold benefiting from structural factors and geopolitical concerns, although a cautious approach to new positions is advised [10] - Oil allocation has been slightly reduced due to expectations of oversupply by year-end, presenting a potential shorting opportunity, with risks associated with significant negative spreads [10]

澳大利亚财政部长查默斯：更大的关税担忧是全球需求不确定性。 ...

澳大利亚财政部长查默斯：将我们关税视为经济自残行为。 ...