隔夜，现货黄金在经历早盘下探后强劲反弹，最终收于4477.28美元附近，涨幅约0.5%。今日欧市盘中，黄金小幅下跌，目前在4475美元附近徘徊。 降息150个基点？ 目前，市场正密切关注将于当地时间周五发布的美国2025年12月非农就业报告。这是自2025年10月美国政府停摆六周、导致关键经济数据收集工作中断数 月以来的首次恢复发布。 隔夜，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数涨0.55%，纳斯达克指数跌0.44%，标普500指数涨0.01%。 消息面上，美国上周首次申请失业金人数不及预期。 美国劳工部发布的数据显示，截至1月3日当周的首次申请失业金人数经季节性调整后为20.8万，较前一周增加8000人，但略低于21万的预期值。截至12月 27日当周续请失业金人数191.4万人，预期190万人，前值自186.6万人修正至185.8万人。 另外，美联储货币政策走向也备受市场关注。 隔夜，美联储理事米兰表示，预计在2026年降息约150个基点。此举有望创造约100万个就业岗位，同时不会引发通货膨胀。米兰表示，很难说政策是中性 的，基础通胀水平基本已经回落至美联储2%的目标附近。预计美国经济今年将保持强劲 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the December non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate, which could influence monetary policy and silver prices [1][3]. Economic Data Expectations - There is a significant divergence in market expectations for December non-farm payrolls, with estimates ranging from 25,000 to 155,000. The consensus from FactSet is 55,000, while the Wall Street Journal expects 73,000 and Reuters anticipates 60,000. The unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% [3]. - Economic forecasts suggest that even strong data may be misleading, with projections indicating that 2025 employment growth could be the weakest in decades, excluding 2020. The U.S. Navy Federal Credit Union predicts only 710,000 jobs added in 2025, marking the worst performance since 2003 outside of recession periods [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - According to CME data, there is a nearly 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, with only an 11% chance of a 25 basis point cut. Recent Fed meeting minutes suggest that a rate cut in January is unlikely [3]. - Future rate cuts are contingent on the labor market; a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% or lower may support maintaining rates, while an increase above 4.7% could prompt cuts. The baseline expectation is that no rate cuts will occur during Powell's tenure [3]. Silver Trading Strategy - Silver prices have shown volatility, strengthening bullish momentum supported by the EMA50, with a prevailing upward trend expected in the short term following positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [4]. - A breakout above $83.94 would indicate a restoration of the upward trend, while a drop below $70.07 could shift the primary trend to bearish, potentially accelerating prices down to the mid-term correction range of $64.79 to $60.25, which aligns with a dense support area near the 50-day moving average of $59.60 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by short-term passive selling due to the BCOM annual rebalancing, mid-term focus on U.S. non-farm payroll data, and long-term support from low interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. dollar index has slightly increased, trading around 99.106, while gold prices are at $4470.89 per ounce, reflecting a 0.15% decline [1]. - The BCOM annual rebalancing, which started on January 9, is expected to lead to passive selling of approximately 240 million ounces (6800 tons) of gold, potentially causing short-term volatility [3]. - The market anticipates the U.S. non-farm payroll data to be a key indicator, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs; a significant deviation from this could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [3]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Geopolitical complexities and rising global fiscal debt are increasing the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with institutions maintaining a bullish consensus on gold prices [4]. - Major financial institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with HSBC predicting $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, and Morgan Stanley and CITIC Securities adjusting their targets to $4800 and $5100 respectively [4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are above the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $4315.87, indicating a bullish trend, with technical indicators suggesting that the downward pressure is diminishing [5][6]. - The MACD indicator shows a reduction in bearish momentum, while the RSI is at 56, indicating a neutral stance with potential for further upward movement [5][6]. - A breakthrough above the $4500 level could strengthen bullish sentiment, while a drop below the 200-day EMA may signal a deeper correction [6].

Gold Market - The recent adjustment in gold prices has allowed them to recover previous losses, despite the CME raising margin requirements for precious metals for the third time in a month, which is interpreted as a necessary measure to maintain market order rather than an end to the bull market [2][8] - The increase in margin requirements indicates a significant shortage of precious metal inventories, which cannot meet the strong demand from investors and speculators, thus supporting the ongoing bull market [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are likely to continue rising, with a key support level at $4,440 [2] Oil Market - International oil prices are currently in a sideways trend, supported by heightened market tensions due to U.S. actions against Venezuela, but the long-term outlook remains troubled by oversupply [3] - A Goldman Sachs survey indicates that over 59% of institutional investors are bearish or slightly bearish on the oil market, marking the most pessimistic outlook in nearly a decade [3] - The IEA reports that global oil supply is expected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026, leading to a projected surplus of 4.09 million barrels per day, equivalent to 4% of global demand [3] Dollar Index - The dollar index has recently reversed its downward trend, gaining over 1.3% since late December, but this upward momentum may not be sustainable due to anticipated significant interest rate cuts following the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairman [4][5] - The new Fed chairman is expected to support President Trump's push for lower interest rates, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasizing the need for the Fed to stimulate investment [5] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of support from moving averages, with a potential for new highs as it forms a bullish continuation pattern [6] Copper Market - Copper prices have returned to the moving average system, indicating that the adjustment in divergence may be complete, with an upward trend likely to continue [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The geopolitical risk from the US's tough action against Venezuela boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but the trading sentiment of the platinum and palladium market weakens due to concentrated long - position reduction. The Fed's potential balance - sheet expansion provides bottom support for the precious metals market [7]. - The supply shortage of platinum persists due to long - term structural constraints in major producing areas, and the industrial demand remains resilient, especially in the automotive industry. In contrast, the demand for palladium is expected to weaken as it is over - concentrated in the automotive catalyst field and affected by the popularization of new - energy vehicles. The market is shifting from supply shortage to surplus. In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support platinum and palladium prices, while in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely to continue [7]. - The operating ranges are: for London platinum, the upper resistance is $2500 per ounce and the lower support is $1900 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is $1900 per ounce and the lower support is $1500 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The US - Venezuela situation boosts the safe - haven attribute of precious metals, but trading sentiment weakens due to long - position reduction. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion provides support [7]. - Platinum supply shortage persists due to structural issues in major producing areas, and industrial demand is resilient. Palladium demand is expected to weaken as the market shifts to surplus, but the bullish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices [7]. - In the short term, the US - Venezuela situation may support prices; in the long term, the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" trend is likely [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The platinum and palladium markets rebounded this week, showing a volatile and upward trend [8]. - As of January 9, 2026, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main contract 2606 was at 499.05 yuan/gram, up 17.37% week - on - week; the platinum main contract 2606 was at 599.80 yuan/gram, up 13.76% week - on - week [10]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium long - position net holdings differ significantly, with palladium showing a net outflow. As of December 30, 2025, NYMEX platinum long - position net holdings were 23,636 contracts, down 6.95% month - on - month; palladium long - position net holdings were - 1546 contracts, up 5.21% month - on - month [11][15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened [16]. - As of January 8, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 625,014.69 ounces, down 4.26% month - on - month; palladium inventory was 211,305.82 ounces, up 0.61% month - on - month [24]. - The price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold significantly increased at the beginning of 2025 [25]. - The rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices rises [27]. - Recently, the positive correlation between platinum prices and NYMEX platinum inventory and the US dollar index has weakened marginally [31]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - As of November 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally [40]. - The total global demand for platinum and palladium shows a moderate downward trend, and the global supply of platinum and palladium declines [45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded steadily [54].

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general decline, with only Shanghai aluminum rising by 1.42%. Shanghai nickel led the decline with a drop of 2.67%, while other metals fell by less than 1% [1] - In the external market, base metals collectively rose, with London tin increasing by 1.84%, nickel by 1.72%, copper by 1.17%, and aluminum by 1.16% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rising by 0.53% and silver by 2.69%, while domestic gold increased by 0.68% and silver fell by 0.9% [1] Black Metals - The black metal sector showed mixed results, with stainless steel rising by 0.25%, while rebar and hot-rolled coil both fell by over 1%, with rebar down 1.1% and hot-rolled coil down 1.02% [1] - In the coking coal sector, coking coal fell by 0.71% and coking coke dropped by 1.83% [1] Macro Indicators - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, with food prices increasing by 1.1% and non-food prices by 0.8% [5] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [5] Renewable Energy - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced guidelines for industrial green microgrid construction, mandating that newly built renewable energy generation facilities should have a self-consumption ratio of at least 60% [6][7] E-commerce Logistics - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the e-commerce logistics index for December 2025 was 113.6 points, reflecting a 0.5-point increase from the previous month [8] - The increase in the index was driven by improvements in supply-side metrics, while demand remained stable [8] Real Estate Financing - Recent policy guidance allows for the extension of loans for projects on the "white list" of the real estate financing coordination mechanism for up to five years, a significant increase from the previous maximum of two and a half years [9] Currency and Oil Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.15% to 99.01, amid concerns over labor demand and upcoming economic data releases [11] - Oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 0.93% and Brent by 0.97%, driven by geopolitical concerns regarding supply disruptions [12]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is unlikely to significantly alter market expectations for Federal Reserve policy unless there is a major surprise in the data, as current market pricing is firmly anchored to a path of easing starting mid-year [1] - The firm expects non-farm payroll growth of approximately 70,000, which aligns with the mainstream consensus, and believes that if the result is close to expectations, it will reinforce the existing macro narrative rather than disrupt it [1] - The market is currently pricing in two complete rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the first 25 basis point cut expected around late April [1] Group 2 - If non-farm data falls below 50,000, it will be interpreted as below the economic breakeven employment growth rate, potentially causing investor concerns about a sharp slowdown in growth [2] - Conversely, if employment numbers exceed 125,000, it may prompt the market to reassess the timing of the Fed's first rate cut, pushing expectations to June [2] - Overall, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the data release will not trigger "dramatic volatility," as positioning and volatility pricing indicate limited interest in significant fluctuations [2]

2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数 据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日 ——标普500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据 盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出 炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言而喻 ——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期， 要么会增强市场对美联储可能连续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管John Briggs就表示，12月 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold initially fell but later recovered, closing up 0.47% at $4477.42 per ounce, while spot silver declined for the second consecutive day, dropping 3.76% to $78.19 per ounce due to an impending sell-off of futures contracts worth billions [1] - International crude oil prices rebounded amid geopolitical crises affecting major oil-producing countries, with WTI crude rising 3.61% to $58.33 per barrel and Brent crude increasing 3.79% to $62.49 per barrel, reaching a two-week high [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement approximately 150 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, with discussions ongoing regarding the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve [1] - In Venezuela, U.S. projections suggest that oil production could increase by 50% within 18 months, while there are plans to control the Venezuelan oil company to lower oil prices to $50 per barrel [1] - Venezuela reaffirmed its commitment to deepen economic and trade agreements with China [1] Group 3 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 3 was recorded at 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000, with the previous value revised from 199,000 to 200,000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for December is highly anticipated, with expectations of a moderate recovery in the job market that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in January [1][4]. Employment Data Expectations - The consensus forecast for December non-farm employment is an increase of 70,000 to 75,000 jobs, a slight rise from November's 64,000 [1][5]. - Predictions for private sector job growth range from 23,000 to 155,000, with no institution forecasting negative growth [5]. - Factors influencing job growth include a potential boost from holiday retail hiring and a decrease in government employment due to hiring freezes [5]. Unemployment Rate Insights - The unemployment rate is expected to drop from 4.6% to 4.5%, which could support the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [4][7]. - Some analysts predict a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.7%, which could prompt a 25 basis point rate cut [7]. - Broader labor market issues are emerging, with new graduates facing difficulties in job hunting, potentially underestimating the true unemployment situation [7][8]. Policy Implications - The upcoming non-farm report is crucial for the Fed's January policy meeting, with mixed opinions among decision-makers regarding rate cuts [9]. - Market pricing currently favors a pause in rate cuts, but strong employment data could shift this outlook [9]. Market Reactions and Strategies - Wall Street is preparing for potential volatility, with the S&P 500 index expected to fluctuate around 1.2% on the data release day [10]. - Scenarios for employment data suggest that job growth between 0 to 105,000 could positively impact the stock market, while stronger data might lead to declines due to rising bond yields [12]. - Defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples may attract investment as safe havens amid high stock valuations [10].