Core Viewpoint - The company has demonstrated strong performance in Q1, driven by effective efficiency measures and solid business fundamentals, with positive contributions from various business segments [1][2]. Group 1: Q1 Performance - The Catalytic Business Group showed strong results, particularly in automotive catalysts, benefiting from its market position and customer coverage [1]. - The Recovery Business Group also performed well, with rising prices of precious metals enhancing the performance of precious metal refining and management businesses [1]. - Demand for gold and silver as safe-haven investments supported the jewelry and industrial metals sectors amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 2: Special Materials and Battery Solutions - The Special Materials Business Group's overall performance met expectations, with the Battery Materials Solutions Group also aligning with forecasts [2]. Group 3: Impact of US Tariff Policy - The new US tariff policy, effective from April, is expected to have limited direct impact on the company's operations by 2025, thanks to customer contract structures and a flexible global supply chain [3]. Group 4: 2025 Outlook - The company confirmed its 2025 outlook, projecting adjusted EBITDA to be between €720 million and €780 million, assuming stable metal prices and no significant new developments [4].

日本突然沉默了。 5月2号，美日第2轮关税谈判结束，东京那边，一反常态地安静得出奇。没有通稿，没有细节，甚至连一句完整的成果通报都没有。只留下赤泽亮正那句"坦 诚且富有建设性"。听起来像是无功而返，也可能是——谈崩了。 这反常的安静背后，不简单。 事实上，这并不是一次普通的贸易磋商。从日本财务大臣到首相本人，在谈判前后陆续发声。力度、用词，明显升级。尤其是财务大臣加藤胜信的一句话， 分量极重。他说，日本手中持有的大量美国国债，是"一个筹码"。这不是一句客套话。是警告，也是试探。美国国债，是日本多年来稳定对美关系的重要资 产。现在被提上台面，本身就是一种示意：必要时，日本也可以掀桌子。 谁都知道，这场谈判的焦点，不在农产品，也不止关税。是日本汽车，是制造业的命根子。就在同一天，首相石破茂面对媒体表态：绝不能接受对日本汽车 加税。他说，加税会直接导致失业。更关键的是，日本"不会为了仓促达成协议而损害国家利益"。 这句话，比什么都清楚。 美方的策略一向直接，想要逼迫对方让步，就释放压力信号。而这次，日本没接。反而开始反压。从沉默到发声，再到节奏上的放慢，整个布局，像是从被 动变主动。日本似乎不急了。这个"不急"，其 ...

Domestic Economic Recovery - During the May Day holiday, inter-regional personnel flow increased significantly, with approximately 630 million trips made, representing a growth of 37.1% compared to 2019 and 5% compared to 2024 [1][4][6] - Various modes of transportation saw growth, with road travel accounting for 570 million trips, a 37.2% increase from 2019, and rail and air travel also showing significant increases [6][9][11] - The subway passenger volume reached a historical high, with major cities reporting an average of 63.21 million trips per day, a 2% increase from 2024 and 18.8% from 2019 [11][10] - Domestic tourism was robust, with ticket bookings for scenic spots increasing nearly 20% year-on-year, and rural tourism orders growing over 40% [14][15] - The film market underperformed, with box office revenue dropping 51.6% year-on-year during the first three days of the holiday [17] Real Estate Sales - New home sales were at a historical low for the same period, with a cumulative sales area of approximately 325.8 million square meters, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year [21][23] - In contrast, second-hand home sales reached a historical high, with a cumulative sales area of 259.1 million square meters, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [23] Global Asset Performance - Global stock indices mostly rose during the May Day holiday, with the MSCI global index increasing by 2.7% [2][24] - The U.S. stock market saw gains across major indices, with the industrial sector performing the best [26] - The bond market experienced mixed results, with U.S. Treasury yields rising while most other countries' bond yields fell [30][31] - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while the Chinese yuan strengthened against the dollar [36] Overseas Economic Developments - The U.S. job market remained stable, with expectations of three interest rate cuts this year, while trade tensions with Europe continued to influence monetary policy [3][38][40] - U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed a contraction of -0.3% due to increased imports, which were driven by tariff expectations [41] - The U.S. and China are expected to ease trade tensions, with ongoing negotiations regarding tariffs [48]

Core Viewpoint - Apple is facing significant challenges due to U.S. tariff policies, which are expected to result in a loss of approximately $900 million in the upcoming fiscal quarter, highlighting the adverse impact of "economic nationalism" on the company [1][3]. Financial Impact - Following the earnings report, Apple's stock price fell by 3.74% to $205.35, marking a cumulative decline of over 15% year-to-date [3]. - The company's production costs are rising due to new tariffs on key components such as displays, chip packaging, and motherboard modules, leading to compressed profit margins and uncertain delivery timelines [3][4]. Regulatory Challenges - Apple is also facing regulatory scrutiny from the European Union, which has identified violations of the Digital Markets Act, resulting in potential fines amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars [4]. - The company's previously advantageous "systemic dividends" from its closed ecosystem are now under threat from regulatory actions [4]. Market Position and Growth Concerns - Apple is losing its growth momentum and strategic advantage as it contends with a weakening iPhone market, lack of innovation in iPads, and regulatory pressures on its service business [6][8]. - The company's business model, which has relied on brand dominance, Chinese manufacturing, and global user profits, is being challenged by geopolitical tensions and a shift towards de-globalization [6][8]. Broader Implications - The situation with Apple reflects a larger collapse of the globalization structure that has supported U.S. tech companies for the past two decades, positioning Apple as a primary example of this trend [6][8]. - Investors are reassessing Apple's future, as the company struggles to maintain its valuation amid declining growth prospects and increasing regulatory pressures [8].

Group 1 - The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has evolved into a significant geopolitical crisis affecting European security, with leaders in Europe closely monitoring the situation [1][2] - Russia's vast territory and nuclear capabilities create a sense of vulnerability among neighboring countries, despite its relatively small GDP compared to regions like Guangdong, China [2] - Historical precedents of failed confrontations with Russia have led to a cautious approach among European nations, balancing defense strategies with energy dependencies on Russia [4][6] Group 2 - NATO's military deployments in Eastern Europe reflect a psychological response to historical conflicts, revealing divisions within the alliance regarding military support for Ukraine and energy negotiations with Russia [4][11] - The emergence of pro-Russian movements in neighboring countries like Moldova and Kazakhstan indicates a potential expansion of Russian influence, raising concerns about future territorial ambitions [7] - The reliance on nuclear deterrence in Europe highlights the inadequacy of conventional military forces against Russia, with fears of nuclear incidents further complicating the security landscape [9][13] Group 3 - The economic repercussions of sanctions against Russia have led to significant inflation and supply chain disruptions in Europe, causing public discontent and political tensions within the EU [11][13] - The internal discord among EU member states regarding energy policies and military strategies undermines their collective ability to effectively counter Russian aggression [11][13] - The long-term consequences of strategic miscalculations regarding Russia are becoming evident, with calls for a reassessment of Europe's geopolitical stance and energy dependencies [13]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.4.30」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅（%） | 周涨跌 | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2506 | -3.77 | -51.90 | 1324.30 | | | EC2508 | -6.43 | -103.50 | 1505.70 | | | EC2510 | -4.29 | -56.40 | 1258.60 | | | EC2512 | -1.93 | -28.60 | 1450.00 | | | EC2602 | -1.26 | -16.60 | 1300.00 | | | EC2604 | -0.47 | -5.60 | 1194.40 | | 现货 | 指数名称 | | | 收盘价 | | | SCFIS ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.04.30」 贵金属市场周报 市场情绪持续修复，短期回调压力仍存 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：本周贵金属市场呈高位震荡回调态势，伴随美国政府就关税问题的态度反转并释 放中美贸易缓和信号，市场风险偏好边际修复，金价回调压力显现。地缘方面，尽管俄乌局 势仍有反复，但普京近期释放和谈信号缓解市场紧张情绪。经济数据方面，美国达拉斯联储 商业活动指数创下疫情以来新低，4月消费者信心连续第五个月下滑，职位空缺环比走弱， 显示经济基本面承压，强化市场对年中降息的押注。尽管美联储5月按兵不动已成市场共识， 但年中降息预期有所升温，推动美债收益率下行。关税方面，特朗普近日表达放宽对华关税 的意愿，而中方亦宣布对部分美国产品实施关税豁免。此外，特朗普政府正寻求通过取降低 汽车零部件进口关税，以减少汽车关税对美国市场的影响，整体来看关税风险区域下行，但 不确定性犹存。资金面来看，尽管CFTC黄金净多头寸回落至14个月新低，显示短线多头情绪 有所降温，但全球央行购金趋势延续。白银则在宏观衰退预期边际缓解与工业需求预期改善 的双重驱动下表现相对坚挺，金银比维持在历史高位水平， ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices on April 30 is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical developments, capital flows, and technical analysis rather than a single cause [1]. Macroeconomic Factors - Strong economic data from the U.S. has reduced the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with indicators such as GDP growth, consumer confidence index, and manufacturing PMI suggesting increased economic resilience and manageable inflation pressures [4]. - The strengthening of the U.S. dollar, driven by positive economic data, has put additional pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar typically leads to decreased demand for gold priced in dollars [4]. - Signs of de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Middle East) have diminished market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Enhanced policy stability from major economies has further reduced market concerns about uncertainty, weakening gold's appeal as a hedge [4]. Capital Flows - There has been a continuous outflow of funds from global gold ETFs, such as SPDR Gold Shares, indicating a cautious outlook from institutional investors regarding gold's short-term prospects [5]. - The attractiveness of risk assets, such as U.S. equities, has increased, leading to a shift in capital away from the gold market [5]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for gold prices have been breached, triggering stop-loss sell orders in algorithmic trading, which exacerbated the price decline [8]. - A wave of profit-taking from investors who previously held bullish positions on gold has intensified selling pressure [8]. Short-term Influences - Changes in central bank policy expectations, particularly from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, could increase the holding costs of gold, putting further downward pressure on prices [8]. - Declines in prices of other commodities, such as oil and copper, may negatively impact gold due to an overall decrease in market risk appetite [8]. Future Considerations - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's policy direction and economic data changes, the persistence of geopolitical conflicts, and the pace of central bank gold purchases and capital flows [9].

Group 1 - The geopolitical and trade turmoil during the initial 100 days of President Trump's second term has caused significant concern among European leaders, marking a departure from previous U.S. government interactions [1] - The European Union is facing increasing uncertainty in two main areas: trade and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with potential tariffs on EU goods and ongoing trade disputes with other partners [1] - European Central Bank policymakers anticipate that economic growth in Europe will be negatively impacted by trade tensions, with inflation effects remaining unclear [1] Group 2 - The Austrian central bank governor highlighted unprecedented uncertainty, indicating that monetary policy decisions may need to be delayed until clarity is achieved [2] - The Dutch central bank governor compared the current uncertainty to the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the negative impact of U.S. tariff actions on growth [2] - The acting German finance minister noted that U.S.-European relations are not at a crisis point yet, suggesting that more events are needed to break the existing trust [2] Group 3 - Concerns regarding U.S. support for Ukraine under Trump's administration have raised alarms in Europe, with EU leaders expressing their commitment to supporting Ukraine while questioning the sustainability of U.S. aid [3] - Kaja Kallas emphasized the need for increased pressure on Russia to facilitate peace in Ukraine, reflecting the urgency of the situation [3] - Trump's initial claims of quickly resolving the conflict were retracted, and while discussions for a ceasefire were initiated, progress has been limited [3]

该机构下调其对欧元区未来两年的增长预测，每年下调0.2%，2025年为0.8%，2026年为1.2%。 Kammer上周表示："对经济前景构成压力的是关税和贸易紧张局势，而不是财政方面的积极影响。" 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 4月29日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 785.14 | 0.47% | 433745 | 143821 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，4月29日上海黄金现货价格报价783元/克，相较于期货主力价格（785.14元/克）贴水2.14元/ 克。 国际货币基金组织（IMF）欧洲部主任Alfred Kammer表示，德国基础设施支出的增加将在未来几年提 振欧洲经济增长，但不足以抵消美国关税带来的预期拖累。 IMF上周下调了欧元区的增长前景，由于特朗普总统不稳定的关税政策，IMF也下调了美国、英国和许 多亚洲国家的增长前景。 "我们看到的是，我们对欧洲发达经济体有重大下调……而对于新兴欧元区国家来说，在这两年的时间 里，经济增长将翻 ...