原油经历贸易战暴跌及修复行情后短期处于相对稳态,重点关注后期供需超预期的变化。上周美国汽油表需大 幅走强,亦有消息称尼日利亚丹格特炼厂渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解受到提振并带动海外炼 化利润出现修复,关注北美驾驶旺季临近油品需求超预期好转的持续性。供应端俄乌、伊核、巴以均处地缘缓 和大趋势中,5/50PEC+会议亦存在继续加快增产的可能,供给增量、地球风险缓和或成为边际变化氢点，继续 持有低成本偏空期权组合对冲油价下行风险。 【與東簽紙號無裝 俄罗斯上周燃料油发运蛋有所回升,新加坡燃料油库存持续增加,FU裂解转为震荡,后续关注FU裂解到达高位 后强势能否持续;尼日利亚丹格特炼厂20万桶/天的渣油催化裂化产汽油装置进入检修,汽油裂解走强对主产品 低硫燃料油裂解构成提振。今日LU5月令约涨幅高达5.9%. 仓库仓单增加31000吨,关注LU近月强势能否持续。 【沥青】 五一节前市场备货需求增加,周度沥青出货量为44.2万吨,环比上升7.5万吨,同比上升高达17.3万吨。截至4 月24日,样本炼厂库存环比下降7.1万吨至86.2万吨;样本社会阵环比下降1.3万吨至193.5万吨,厂库与社库均 去库。供需 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that recent gold price movements are influenced by geopolitical factors, monetary policy, and market sentiment, with a short-term outlook leaning towards a bearish trend and potential technical corrections [1] Group 2 - Short-term trend analysis shows that gold prices have retreated from a historical high of $3500, with daily charts displaying a "shooting star" pattern and weekly declines exceeding 1%, suggesting short-term downward pressure [3] - A key support level is identified at $3260; if this level is breached, the bearish trend may strengthen, potentially leading to further declines to $3221 or even $3100 [3] Group 3 - Market sentiment has cooled due to easing tensions in US-China trade relations and signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [4] - Profit-taking has increased as gold prices have fallen from their highs, contributing to short-term volatility [5] Group 4 - Mid-term risks include geopolitical uncertainties, with fluctuating statements from Trump regarding tariffs and the independence of the Federal Reserve, alongside escalating global trade risks, which could trigger renewed safe-haven demand [6] - The interplay between expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and a strengthening dollar may diminish gold's appeal to overseas buyers, thereby suppressing prices [7] - There is a risk of technical breakdown if the $3260 support level is lost, which could lead to significant selling pressure and increased correction magnitude [8] Group 5 - Short-term trading strategy suggests focusing on buying during pullbacks and selling during rebounds, with resistance levels at $3343-$3353 and support levels at $3300-$3290 [9] - For medium to long-term positioning, adjustments should be made based on geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policy signals, with a recommendation to consider reducing positions for risk management if the $3260 level is breached [10]

如果您希望可以时常见面，欢迎标星收藏哦~ 来源：内容 编译自编辑日报 ，谢谢 。 今年上半年中国补贴政策和对等关税议题，对品牌在面板的操作策略造成不小的影响，间接牵动面 板驱动IC（Driver IC）的价格走势。根据TrendForce最新调查，第1季面板驱动IC平均价格季减 约1%至3%，第2季仍有小幅下滑的趋势，但变动幅度有限，显示近年价格持续下跌的趋势出现缓 和。 从需求面分析价格跌势趋缓原因，一是由于品牌厂、面板厂调整备货节奏，库存逐渐回复到健康水 位，二是中国去年开始实施的补贴政策刺激需求回升，激励驱动IC出货表现逐季成长。从供应面 来看，因为成熟制程的晶圆代工价格相对稳定，成本面未再出现剧烈波动，有助整体报价保持平 稳。 TrendForce表示，近期市场仍存在变数，首先是原物料金价持续飙升，近日一度突破每盎司3,300 美元，创下新高。由于面板驱动IC封装需使用金凸块（gold bump），金价调涨将增加厂商材料成 本，尽管目前售价未因此调整，但若金价持续走高，业者很有可能会反映相关压力在报价上。 地缘政治是另一项潜在风险，尤以美中贸易政策的不确定影响最大。美国的对等关税虽然尚未直接 针对面板 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper stabilized and rebounded, with the main contract of Shanghai copper rising 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential impact of Trump's policies on tariffs have affected copper prices. Currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. On the industrial side, domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory is 203,450 tons, with a slight decrease last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] - The PMI is declining, the copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. Exchange inventories remain high, while bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [8][10][14][18] - Processing fees are recovering slowly, CFTC non-commercial net long positions are flowing out [22][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.74% to close at 77,440 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors affected copper prices, and currently, sentiment has improved. In China, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. Domestic spot trading is average, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory decreased slightly last week, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 54,858 tons to 116,753 tons compared with last week [3] 3.2 Fundamentals (Inventory Structure) - **PMI**: The PMI is declining [8] - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The copper market was in a tight balance in 2023 and will be in surplus in 2024. The 2018 - 2024 China annual supply - demand balance sheet shows details of production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [10][13] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories remain high, and bonded zone inventories remain at a low level [14][18] 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are recovering slowly [22] - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [24] - **Spot - Futures Spread**: No specific information provided - **Import Profit**: No specific information provided - **Warehouse Receipts**: No specific information provided

Group 1 - Trump demands that U.S. commercial and military vessels be allowed to pass through the Panama Canal and Suez Canal for free, emphasizing their importance for global trade and military mobility [1] - The Panama Canal Authority regulates the tolls for the Panama Canal, and there are no agreements contrary to this regulation, as stated by the Panamanian president [1] - The U.S. and China are the two main users of the Panama Canal, while the Suez Canal is crucial for connecting Europe and Asia, handling about 10% of global maritime trade [3] Group 2 - Egypt reported a significant decline in Suez Canal revenues by 60%, amounting to a loss of $7 billion [4] - The U.S. military has been conducting attacks against Houthi positions since January 2024, with operations intensifying during Trump's presidency, aimed at mitigating threats to maritime shipping [4]

中共中央政治局会议：统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政 策。 中国一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增，同比增长0.8%。 中国六部门：下调离境退税起退点至200元，现金退税限额上调至2万元。 国家市场监管总局：长和港口交易各方不得采取任何方式规避反垄断审查。 今年核电项目开闸，国常会核准10台新机组，拉动超2000亿投资。 特朗普：谈成200份协议，美日协议"非常接近"，关税不太可能再暂缓90天。 美联储金融稳定报告：多种资产估值处高位，美债收益率高企，贸易升至头号风险。 俄方称普京与美特使确认，俄愿无先决条件与乌谈判，双方讨论了恢复俄乌直接谈判的可能性。 泽连斯基公布与特朗普会晤细节，强调实现全面、无条件停火。 美伊第三轮间接会谈结束，伊朗会后称双方仍存在分歧；媒体称特朗普表示愿与哈梅内伊或佩泽 希齐扬会面。 印巴周四晚在克什米尔实控线附近小规模交火，巴防长发出"全面战争"警告；地缘冲突升级，周 五印度股债汇三杀。 提醒：周一中国国新办将就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况举行发布会。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Donald Trump demands that U.S. ships, including military and commercial vessels, be allowed free passage through the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal, claiming that these waterways would not exist without the U.S. [1] - Panama's President José Raúl Mulino responds indirectly, stating that the Panama Canal Authority controls toll matters and that there are no conflicting agreements [1][2] - The U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth visited Panama and expressed the desire to sign an agreement ensuring U.S. naval vessels have "priority and free" passage through the Panama Canal [2] Group 2 - The Panama Canal is crucial for U.S. commercial shipping and military deployment, with 40% of U.S. container cargo transported through it annually [2] - The Suez Canal, which has been a significant maritime route since its opening in 1869, is now facing security risks due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4] - The Suez Canal has seen a 60% drop in revenue, resulting in a loss of $7 billion for Egypt, which heavily relies on canal income for its national budget and foreign reserves [5]

高额关税、政策变动，新能源普及的挑战不再是技术或者商业。 文 丨 李梓楠 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 2023 年 5 月，世界是一副大病修复的模样。中国正在经历短暂的报复性消费，一度被疫情打断的中美 高级官员会晤和企业家互访逐渐恢复。特斯拉 CEO 马斯克在那个月底来到北京，被至少三位部长单 独接待。 特斯拉是中美合作的典范，上海工厂让特斯拉成为万亿美元科技巨头，也带动中国供应链做出电动车 的诸多工程最优解。当时最新展出的特斯拉人形机器人里，关键零件的供应名单上列着一批中国公 司。仅仅在两年前，即便相互之间存在诸多不信任，世界上最大的两个经济体依然在一些领域探索更 深入的合作。 在北京，马斯克还和当时的特斯拉二号人物，负责中国和北美业务的高级副总裁朱晓彤一起见了宁德 时代董事长曾毓群。宁德时代建议双方通过技术授权方式合作在美国建厂造电池。 当时，拜登政府补贴美国本土新能源产业的《通胀削减法案》刚开始生效，特斯拉从宁德时代进口的 电池享受不到政府补贴，每辆美国产标准续航版 Model 3 会少 3750 美元的补贴。 特斯拉和宁德时代找了一个灵活的合作方式。宁德时代不在美国工厂持有股份，而是取技术授权 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte's family business is planning to acquire 43 port assets globally from Li Ka-shing's CK Hutchison Holdings, marking a significant shift in the ownership of strategic port infrastructure [1][3]. Group 1: Players Involved - The port dispute has evolved into a five-way contest involving Li Ka-shing, BlackRock from the U.S., Chinese regulatory bodies, Panama's interests, and now the Aponte family [3]. - Gianluigi Aponte controls Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), one of the largest private shipping companies globally, which has significant influence in the port investment sector through its subsidiary, Terminal Investment Limited (TiL) [4]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - TiL is preparing to take over over 40 ports from CK Hutchison, excluding two key ports near the Panama Canal, which are expected to be controlled by BlackRock [4]. - The involvement of BlackRock, a major U.S. asset management firm with strong political ties, raises concerns about the potential for U.S. influence over these strategic assets, especially in light of Trump's previous statements about reducing Chinese presence in the Panama Canal area [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Context - The sale of port assets by Li Ka-shing is interpreted as a strategic move to divest from a politically sensitive environment, as the ports have become focal points in the geopolitical tug-of-war between the U.S. and China [9]. - The situation reflects a historical pattern where Panama has been a battleground for international power dynamics, with the U.S. previously exerting control over the canal and now attempting to regain influence through capital means [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing developments signify a complex interplay of international capital and geopolitical interests, with Aponte's involvement potentially being a precursor to further strategic maneuvers in the region [10]. - For China, the focus remains on maintaining a broad and deep global trade network rather than being overly reliant on specific ports, indicating a strategic resilience in its international trade approach [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The trade relationship between Japan and the United States is significantly impacted by the recent tariff policies initiated by the Trump administration, leading to widespread concern among Japanese industries about the negative effects of "reciprocal tariffs" [1][6]. Industry Impact - Over half (52.3%) of surveyed companies reported that "reciprocal tariffs" have a "negative" impact, with only 1.3% indicating a "positive" effect [2]. - The manufacturing sector is the most affected, with 64.4% of manufacturing companies reporting negative impacts, followed by wholesale (56.4%), transportation (51.5%), and agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and mining (51.2%) [2][3]. - Among the 5,314 surveyed companies, 46.2% stated that the tariffs would have no impact, while 30.3% felt there would be slight negative effects, and 22.0% anticipated significant negative impacts [2]. Specific Industry Responses - The manufacturing industry, particularly the automotive sector, is identified as a "disaster zone" due to the high negative impact from tariffs [3]. - In the manufacturing sector, non-ferrous metal manufacturing reported the highest negative impact at 83.3%, followed by steel (79.4%) and rubber products (79.1%) [3]. - The retail sector had the highest percentage of companies reporting a positive impact at 3.6%, with other sectors like real estate and wholesale showing minimal positive responses [4]. Company Strategies - A significant portion (65.1%) of companies reported having "no special" countermeasures in response to the tariffs, indicating a lack of immediate strategic planning [5]. - Among those considering responses, 9.7% plan to reduce inventory, and 9.0% may cancel or reduce capital investments [5]. - Companies are primarily focused on assessing the impact of tariffs rather than implementing proactive measures [5]. Policy Concerns - The highest concern among surveyed companies is the tariff policy, with 54.7% indicating it as a primary focus, particularly among larger enterprises [6]. - The construction, manufacturing, and financial sectors show the highest levels of concern regarding tariff policies [6]. Government Response - The Japanese government, represented by the economic revitalization minister, emphasizes the urgency of addressing the tariff situation, labeling it a "national crisis" [7].