Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is described as an independent institution, with the President having the right to express opinions [1]

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin expressed interest in becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair and believes aggressive rate cuts are appropriate at this time [1][2] - Sumerlin stated that a reduction of 50 basis points in the key interest rate is a straightforward decision given the current yield structure, weak labor market, and stable inflation [1] - The range of candidates to succeed current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is broad, with Sumerlin's stance on interest rates aligning with President Trump's push for monetary easing [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin confirmed that he was contacted by the White House last week and mentioned his close relationship with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is playing a key role in selecting the next chair [2] - He emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence, especially in light of President Trump's unprecedented public criticism of Powell and the FOMC [2] - Other candidates for the position include current board member Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former board member Kevin Warsh, and about six other candidates [2]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, nominated by Trump for the Federal Reserve, is a significant figure who supports Trump's economic agenda, but his unconventional views may clash with mainstream economic thought within the Fed [1][2] Summary by Sections Nomination and Background - Miran is nominated to replace Kugler, who resigned with six months left in her term, meaning Miran's term could last until January 31, 2026, if confirmed by the Senate [1] - His non-mainstream economic views are expected to be highlighted during the Senate Banking Committee confirmation hearing [1] Economic Views - Unlike most mainstream economists, Miran believes that Trump's tariffs on trade partners will not lead to inflation, suggesting that the Fed should have cut rates earlier this year as Trump has advocated [1][2] - He stated there is "no evidence" that tariffs have caused inflation, arguing that predictions of such effects have consistently failed [2] Relationship with the Federal Reserve - Miran's views align closely with Trump's unconventional economic vision, which centers on trade policy reform [2] - He has previously co-authored a paper opposing the independence of the Federal Reserve, although he has softened his stance recently, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence in a CNBC interview [3][4] Consensus and Influence - Miran's extreme views on tariffs are not shared by any current Fed officials, who acknowledge that tariffs could raise inflation to some extent [5] - If confirmed, Miran would need to build consensus within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to align the Fed's policies with Trump's preferences, a role typically held by the Fed Chair [6] Future Prospects - Analysts suggest that Miran could be a dark horse candidate for the next Fed Chair, given his close relationship with Trump and his support for the administration's policies [6]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $38.20, with a recent price of $38.32, reflecting a 1.10% increase from the opening price of $37.88 [1] - The highest price reached today was $38.35, while the lowest was $37.83, indicating a bullish short-term trend for London silver [1] Group 2 - President Trump suggested that interest rates should be lowered by at least 3%, bringing them to a range of 1.25% to 1.50% [3] - Analysts warn that the ongoing political tension between Trump and the Federal Reserve could undermine investor confidence, potentially leading to a surge in silver prices [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership is contributing to increased market volatility, with concerns about the independence of the Fed worsening the situation [3] Group 3 - Swissquote's senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya emphasized that attacks on the Federal Reserve's independence could have severe consequences, including a potential collapse of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [4] - Ozkardeskaya highlighted that the Fed's credibility is crucial for its ability to support financial markets through bond purchases, and losing this credibility would severely impact the dollar and U.S. debt [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor safe-haven assets, as significant actions from the Federal Reserve may be anticipated in the fall [4] Group 4 - London silver has shown a slight rebound, stabilizing near the 10-day moving average, with the RSI indicator trending upwards [6] - The support level for silver is around $37.50, with potential upward movement towards $38.40-$38.50 if it stabilizes above the $38 mark [6] - Key support levels to watch are $37.65 and $37.35, while resistance levels are at $38.05 and $38.30 [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the conflicting signals from recent economic data, particularly the July CPI, which has led to a decrease in market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, subsequently impacting the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [1][2][4] - The July CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%, marginally exceeding the market expectation of 3.0%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][2] - The market's reaction to the potential interest rate cut has been mixed, with the dollar index dropping by 0.5% to 97.85, typically favorable for gold, yet gold prices have shown weakness, with the Shanghai gold futures contract down 0.08% to 776.46 CNY per gram and spot gold down 0.07% to 3345.210 USD per ounce [2][4] Group 2 - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, particularly with the nomination of Milan as a potential board member, which could raise concerns about the politicization of monetary policy if he advocates for more accommodative measures [3] - The relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve appears strained, as evidenced by the pressure exerted on Powell regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, which may undermine market confidence in the Fed's credibility [3] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in gold prices is influenced by three main factors: a reduction in the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut from 70% to 55%, a rebound in tech stocks attracting investment away from gold, and technical resistance around the 3350 USD per ounce level prompting profit-taking by some investors [4] Group 3 - The outlook for gold remains uncertain in the short term, with expectations of continued volatility, particularly in light of upcoming non-farm payroll data and statements from Federal Reserve officials [5] - If economic slowdown risks are confirmed by future data, renewed expectations for rate cuts could support a rebound in gold prices; conversely, if inflation remains sticky, gold may face further adjustments [5] - Long-term factors such as global geopolitical risks, trends towards de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases are expected to provide a supportive floor for gold prices, suggesting structural investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - Former St. Louis Fed President Brad discussed his recent conversation with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin regarding the search for a new Fed Chair, expressing his willingness to advance in any way desired [2] - President Trump is a vocal critic of current Fed Chair Powell, whose term lasts until mid-May next year, and is looking for a successor who aligns with his views on interest rate cuts [2] - Mnuchin is compiling a list of candidates that includes NEC Director Hassett, former Fed Governor Warsh, current Fed Governor Waller, and former President Bush's economic advisor Summers [2] Group 2 - Brad supports lowering interest rates, stating that tariffs do not lead to inflation but have slowed the economy this year, predicting that the Fed will adopt this view [2][3] - He emphasized the importance of preparing for success in the role of Fed Chair, aiming for low and stable inflation while respecting the Fed's independence under the Federal Reserve Act [3] - White House Economic Council Chair Milan refuted the belief that tariffs would lead to long-term higher prices, stating there is no evidence of inflation caused by tariffs [3][4] Group 3 - Following the release of the CPI report showing a July inflation rate of 2.7%, which is above the Fed's 2% target but slightly below Wall Street expectations, Brad predicted that the FOMC would begin cutting rates in September, potentially reducing the benchmark rate by a full percentage point within the next year [3] - Both Milan and Brad highlighted the importance of Fed independence, especially in light of Trump's public criticisms of policymakers for not cutting rates [4] - Trump reiterated his demand for a 3 percentage point rate cut, criticizing Powell for being "late" in his decisions, while Brad acknowledged Trump's right to his opinion based on his experience in the real estate market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the concerns regarding the Treasury Secretary's comments on the selection criteria for the next Federal Reserve Chair, suggesting a potential challenge to the Fed's independence [1] - The article discusses the need for the new Fed Chair to redefine the Fed's functions, indicating that its current mission has expanded beyond monetary policy to include broader economic responsibilities [1] - The emphasis on "forward-looking thinking" by the Treasury Secretary raises questions about the balance between relying on historical data and anticipating future economic changes, which could lead to decision-making risks [1] Group 2 - The article reflects the U.S. government's expectations and pressures on the Federal Reserve to adapt its strategies in a rapidly changing global economic landscape [1] - It raises concerns about the potential blurring of the Fed's focus on monetary policy if it takes on too many economic functions, which could expose it to political pressures [1] - The discussion points to the challenge of balancing independence and flexibility for the Federal Reserve in addressing complex economic issues in the future [1]

圣路易斯联储前总裁布拉德表示，（关于接任美联储主席职位的可能性）上周与贝森特进行了交谈。如 果美联储的目标是稳定的较低通胀率，且美联储独立性得到尊重，愿意接受美联储主席一职。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the gold market are attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions, trade tariff developments, and monetary policy discussions, highlighting gold's multifaceted nature as a commodity, financial asset, and currency [5]. Commodity Attributes - The impact of tariffs on gold prices has become more pronounced, particularly due to the U.S. imposing a new "reciprocal tariff" of 39% on Swiss gold bars, which led to a temporary halt in gold shipments from Swiss refineries to the U.S. [7] - A subsequent reversal occurred when the White House announced an exemption for imported gold bars from tariffs, causing a significant drop in the New York-London gold premium, although it remained above normal levels, indicating ongoing market uncertainty [7]. Financial Attributes - The market has experienced fluctuating sentiments regarding U.S.-Russia relations, with optimism about potential talks being tempered by President Trump's comments, reflecting the complexities of geopolitical dynamics and their influence on risk sentiment [9]. - The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and central bank gold purchases are contributing to a shift away from globalization, with the likelihood of immediate peace agreements being low due to competing interests among major powers [9]. Monetary Attributes - The independence of the Federal Reserve is not expected to be a major market driver in the short term, as current Chairman Powell's term is nearing its end, and the selection of a new chair will take time [11]. - A potential risk lies in the upcoming FOMC meeting, where a rate cut could lead to the reintroduction of interest-bearing Treasury issuance, possibly pushing 10-year U.S. Treasury yields towards 5%, which would exert downward pressure on gold prices [11]. Market Outlook - Despite short-term expectations of geopolitical easing and tariff exemptions boosting risk sentiment, the trends of de-globalization and weakening dollar credibility persist, making the gold-silver ratio at 85-90 more attractive for long positions compared to high-priced gold [13].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting on July 30, 2025, despite increasing pressure for a rate cut [2][3] - The shift towards a dovish stance among Federal Reserve officials has become more pronounced, with predictions of potential rate cuts in September [2][3][4] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added compared to the expected 115,000, has raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2 - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, which has contributed to market uncertainty regarding economic prospects [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a close Trump ally, to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to influence the Fed's decision-making process, potentially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [6][7] - The anticipated rate cuts may benefit traditional industries with high debt levels, such as real estate, but the overall impact remains uncertain due to conflicting economic policies [8][9]