Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance in the first half of 2025, with significant sector differentiation and a focus on internal demand and domestic policy catalysts [3][4][5][7][8]. Market Performance - A-shares closed higher this week, with major indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 showing strong gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index lagged behind [3]. - The market exhibited an "N-shaped" trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.2% from the beginning of the year to June 27 [4]. - Sector performance varied significantly, with non-ferrous metals and banking sectors leading with gains of 18.0% and 13.5%, respectively, while coal and real estate sectors faced declines of 12.6% and 7.4% [5]. Fund Flows - The A-share market saw active trading in the first half of the year, with an average daily turnover exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [6]. - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 1.6 billion yuan, while the issuance of equity funds rebounded significantly, surpassing 250 billion units [6]. Future Outlook - The index is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short term, with external risks potentially easing but still requiring vigilance regarding U.S. policies [7]. - Three main investment themes are highlighted: 1. Domestic consumption, driven by policy support for expanding domestic demand 2. Domestic substitution, focusing on performance certainty and thematic investments 3. Sectors currently underweight by funds, which may see long-term interest due to regulatory changes [8].

2025 年 6 月 28 日 策略研究 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 ——策略周专题（2025 年 6 月第 4 期） 要点 本周 A 股收涨 本周 A 股收涨。本周 A 股主要宽基指数均收涨，创业板指、中证 500 等指数涨幅 靠前，上证 50、上证指数涨幅靠后。从市场风格来看，本周主要风格指数均收涨， 小盘成长、中盘成长涨幅居前，而大盘价值、大盘成长涨幅靠后。分行业来看，申 万一级行业大多收涨，计算机、国防军工等行业涨幅靠前，石油石化、食品饮料等 行业跌幅靠前。 2025 年上半年市场回顾：蓄势跃升 市场上半年呈"N 型"走势，上证指数小幅收涨。从上半年的市场表现来看，受海 内外多重因素交织影响，A 股上半年走势较为震荡，年初至 6 月 27 日，上证指数 上涨 2.2%。分阶段来看，市场上半年的走势可以分为"震荡上行——震荡调整— —震荡上行"三个阶段，整体呈"N 型"走势。年初至 3 月中旬，AI 产业加速发展 与政策暖风共振，A 股市场震荡上行；3 月下旬至 4 月上旬，受特朗普"对等关税" 影响，A 股市场震荡调整；4 月中旬至年中，国内政策积极发力，叠加中美贸易摩 擦阶段性缓和，市场震 ...

自5月20日起，"十五五"规划编制工作开展网络征求意见活动。今年"十五五"规划相关工作节点比以往 开始得还要早，充分显示出党中央对五年规划的重视。 当前制定"十五五"规划的内外部大环境相较于"十四五"期间发生了明显变化。 从国内环境看，相比于"十四五"规划，党的二十大报告根据形势的变化和认识的深化，在2035年远景目 标的阐述上作出一定调整，进一步明确了基本实现现代化的方向指引，这也将为"十五五"规划的编制锚 定目标方向。此外，当下国内经济面临的稳增长压力比五年前更复杂，一些中长期的困难和挑战已经浮 现，比如人口问题、外部的输入性风险等。 《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》(以下简称《决定》)共提出300多项 重要改革举措，目前正在陆续出台实施，"十五五"规划也会将与之相关的改革举措纳入其中。特别是 《决定》对"完善市场经济基础制度"作出的部署安排非常重要，涵盖产权保护、市场准入、公平竞争、 社会信用体系等四个基础性制度。这关乎我国市场经济的竞争力和社会信心，近期有关的法律规定已陆 续出台，"十五五"期间各地各有关部门要将这些基础性制度真正贯彻落实，才能为经济发展带来积极效 应。从下一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gradual recovery of industrial product prices and the implementation of domestic demand expansion policies are expected to maintain a positive trend in domestic demand, leading to a slight recovery in the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises in the second half of the year, influenced by a low base from the previous year [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first five months, the total profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the first four months, but a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [1]. - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in May alone saw a year-on-year decline of 9.1% [1]. - Despite the decline in profit, the gross profit and revenue of industrial enterprises continued to grow, with gross profit increasing by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing to a 3 percentage point increase in overall profit [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with profits increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, contributing 2.4 percentage points to the overall profit of large-scale industrial enterprises [2]. - Among the eight industries in equipment manufacturing, seven reported profit growth, with significant increases in the electronics, electrical machinery, and general equipment sectors, achieving year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 11.6%, and 10.6% respectively [2]. - The aerospace, aviation, and maritime industries experienced rapid growth, with profits increasing by 56.0% year-on-year, and the shipbuilding and related equipment manufacturing sector saw an impressive profit growth of 85% [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact and Future Outlook - The implementation of "two new" policies has effectively stimulated domestic demand, leading to positive profit performance in related industries [3]. - The general and specialized equipment sectors benefited from large-scale equipment renewal policies, with profits increasing by 10.6% and 7.1% year-on-year, respectively, contributing 0.6 percentage points to the overall profit growth [3]. - The outlook for the next phase suggests that with ongoing recovery in market conditions and industrial product prices, along with strengthened domestic demand policies, the profit growth of large-scale industrial enterprises may show slight recovery in the second half of the year [3].

请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 宏观 稳固基础，波动改善 ——2025 年一季度国内经济回顾及中期展望 2025 年 6 月 27 日 宏观研究/主题报告 投资要点： 展望 2025 年，外部环境面临较大不确定性，我国全力巩固经济基本面， 着力实现"四稳"目标，实际 GDP 增速有望维持在 5%左右，经济或延续 波动改善。5 月中美关税问题边际缓和，短期我国出口或仍保持韧性，不过 未来仍存不确定性。国内政策更加积极，讲求针对性、有效性。在大力提振 消费、促进房地产市场回稳的基础上，以市场化方式深化供给侧结构性改革， 促进价格合理回升。节奏上，"两新""两重"等政策加码，以及"抢出口" 效应下，一季度经济增速已稳中有升，部分经济前瞻指标有所改善；二季度 专项债和特别国债加快发行使用，降准降息落地，政策协调配合加强，外需 压力可控，但内生动能不稳定，经济增速或微幅回落；三季度外部环境仍不 确定，叠加财政、促消费政策效应进入到相对平稳的阶段，届时经济增速可 能放缓较为明显；四季度政策大概率加力对冲，尤其是财政政策加码可能性 更大，对消费和投资的推动效果更为直接。需求结构上，消费、基建首先受 益于政策驱动， ...

证券研究报告 关税影响显现，5 月工企利润同比转负 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 27 日│中国内地 动态点评 5 月工业企业利润数据点评 今年 5 月工业企业盈利同比增速较 4 月的 3%明显回落至-9.1%，出口相关 的中游制造业量价有所承压、或显示关税政策对企业利润率及订单的影响 显现，下游部分消费品行业或受促销影响、呈现"量增价跌"，亦对盈利形 成扰动。整体而言，工业企业收入同比增速从 4 月的 2.6%继续回落至 0.8%， 与 5 月出口增速放缓相印证，出口链相关行业盈利回升态势受阻，关税影响 或逐步凸显，电气机械、仪器仪表、专用设备、计算机通信等行业利润率及 收入增速均有回落；同时，油价及黑色系价格下跌对石化及煤炭开采等行业 利润率回升持续形成压制，对应中下游的石化加工相关行业盈利边际改善； 此外，汽车、服装、文教娱乐用品等行业营收增速回升，但盈利增速走弱， 或显示出购物节促销等因素对价格的拖累。 往前看，7 月 9 日"对等关税"豁免期后关税政策仍有较大扰动，外需不确 定性或对后续出口订单带来扰动，尤其是对企业利润率的影响或逐步显现。 内需层面，"以旧换新"政策补贴使用过半，虽然三四季度补贴 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is positioned as a major consumer market with significant investment and consumption potential, aiming to transition into a "super-sized consumer nation" while enhancing its income levels and wealth distribution [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Contributions and Market Expansion - China's economy continues to grow steadily despite external shocks, contributing positively to the global economy [2]. - The Chinese market is expanding in both size and quality, creating new opportunities for international trade [2][3]. - China has a consumption level of nearly 50 trillion yuan, over 50 trillion yuan in investments, and more than 20 trillion yuan in imports, indicating vast growth potential [3]. Group 2: Transition to a High-Income Nation - The goal of becoming a high-income country is essential for achieving the status of a super-sized consumer nation, with both objectives being interdependent [3][4]. - Enhancing the income and wealth levels of all residents is crucial for this transition, which requires a phased approach to realize this vision [4]. Group 3: Strategies for Increasing Domestic Demand - The focus is on increasing household income and creating new avenues for consumer spending to boost domestic demand [5]. - Various strategies have been proposed, including active fiscal and monetary policies, increasing pension levels for rural residents, and issuing consumption vouchers [5]. - The emphasis is on improving income distribution and wealth accumulation mechanisms to achieve common prosperity and expand the middle-income group [5].

金融加力支持高质量发展 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 6 月策略月报 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 2025 年 06 月 27 日 | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 固本强基，向新向好 改革深化稳市场信心 政策加力支持金融开放与高质量发展 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] 策略研究|策略月报 [Table_Title] 策 略 月 报 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 6 月 A 股主要股指普遍上涨：截至 6 月 25 日收盘，上证综 指收报 3,455.97 点，较 5 月末上涨 3.24%。分结构看，本 月 A 股主要股指普遍上涨。其中，上证 50、沪深 300 指数 涨幅较大。 ⚫ 市场流动性有所改善：截至 6 月 25 日，6 月 A 股限售解禁 ...

Group 1 - The market saw a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing 1.6 trillion, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3450 points for the year [1] - The brokerage sector experienced a substantial rise, driven by the acquisition of a virtual asset license by Guotai Junan International, alongside industry consolidation, regulatory reforms, and low valuations as the main catalysts for the increase [1] - The outlook for the brokerage sector remains positive, with a focus on holding positions after valuations become reasonable [1] Group 2 - Attention is drawn to two key factors: the impending deadline of July 9 for US tariff negotiations, which may impact China based on outcomes with Europe and Japan, and the emphasis on technological independence and domestic demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - There are multiple industry news, company earnings, and international developments that warrant attention [1]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Bank successfully invested in JD Technology's first "export to domestic sales" themed ABS product, aligning with the national strategy to "smooth the national economic cycle" [1] Group 1: Investment and Financial Strategy - Citic Bank invested 160 million yuan in the "He Yu 7-5 Asset-Backed Special Plan" priority A shares, which is the first of its kind in the market [1] - The project aims to utilize at least 50% of the raised funds for purchasing goods from "export to domestic sales" suppliers, supporting foreign trade enterprises transitioning to domestic markets [1] - The investment is part of a broader strategy to enhance the supply chain by providing efficient and low-cost transformation funding for foreign trade companies facing international market challenges [1] Group 2: Economic Impact and Policy Alignment - The initiative responds to national policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade and expanding domestic demand, promoting a positive cycle of supply and demand in the domestic market [1] - By introducing high-quality international export goods, the project aims to enrich domestic market supply and activate domestic consumption potential [1] - Citic Bank's collaboration with JD Technology exemplifies the practical implementation of the dual circulation development strategy, enhancing the integration of financial services in the consumer sector [1][2] Group 3: Future Directions - Citic Bank Beijing Branch plans to deepen strategic cooperation with leading companies like JD Technology in key national support areas, continuously innovating supply chain financial service models [2] - The bank aims to optimize financial resource allocation to contribute to the smooth operation of the national economic cycle and the construction of a new development pattern [2]