让 优 秀 被 发 € 175 - 6 ■ th th 16 D 扫码咨询 扫码报名 参部件年度贡献奖 中国汽公 申报第十届铃轩奖 主 流 车 企 研 发 采 购 专 家 评 选 年 度 零 部 件 推 CC . 17 作者 / 吴 静 编辑 / 黄大路 设计 / 张 萌 从身家千万，到穿仓破产，仅用了三个交易日。 2025年8月8日，周五，华南一家期货公司客户手中持有碳酸锂主力合约1750手，账户权益为1620万元。 周六周日平安无事，但是周一，8月11日，开盘后，碳酸锂期货突然直接封死涨停，账户权益骤降至700余万元，保证金使用率升至240%。 8月12日，期货公司以涨停价88840元/吨挂单集合竞价平仓，导致该客户每手净亏损11880元，总亏损不仅耗尽本金1600万元，还导致穿仓损失464万 元。 随后，"投资人做空碳酸锂期货穿仓亏完1600万本金倒欠464万"的消息就登上热搜。这一惨剧的导火索正是一则宁德时代矿产停产消息。 8月11日，宁德时代在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证 延续申请，待获得批复后将尽早恢复生产。 虽然 ...

Market Dynamics - Since the beginning of 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have alternated in performance, with Hong Kong stocks stabilizing in Q1 driven by the internet sector, followed by new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals in Q2, leading to a compression of the AH premium to approximately 120 by June 2025 [2] - In July and August, A-shares continued to perform strongly while Hong Kong stocks faced pressure from tightening liquidity and competition in the platform economy [2] Funding Environment - The liquidity situation is improving, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority passively injecting liquidity in April and May, leading to a temporary drop in HIBOR to near zero; however, by late June, excess liquidity was being withdrawn, and HIBOR rose rapidly to around 4% in August [3] - The Hong Kong dollar has moved away from the 7.85 weak-side guarantee, and the HIBOR-SOFR overnight interest rate spread has returned to a normal range of about 0.36%, indicating that the most stringent phase of the funding environment is likely over [3] Fundamental Outlook - The consensus EPS forecast for the Hang Seng Index for 2025 was revised down from 6.7% in early July to 2.35% by the end of August, primarily due to lowered profit expectations in the platform economy and increased competition in food delivery [4] - However, earnings expectations for sectors such as materials and healthcare within the Hong Kong Stock Connect have been significantly upgraded, and regulatory constraints on unfair competition are expected to reduce price wars in instant retail [4] - With the release of mid-year reports and a shift in outlook for Q4 towards "AI empowerment and efficiency recovery," the internet sector is anticipated to see a rebound in expectations [4] Long-term Framework - The long-term bullish logic for A/H shares is supported by policies and wealth migration, emphasizing a balance between an effective market and proactive government intervention [5] - The dynamic balance aims to stabilize the market while enhancing capital market functions through measures such as mergers and acquisitions, registration system deepening, and attracting long-term capital [5] Structural Changes in Funding - There is a noticeable acceleration in the entry of long-term funds such as social security, insurance, and wealth management into the market, with a clear trend of increased allocation to ETFs and institutional investments [7] - The decline in deposit and wealth management yields has created an "asset shortage" environment, suggesting that both residents and institutions have room to increase their equity allocation [7] Industry and Sector Trends - Emerging sectors such as AI computing chains, semiconductor equipment and materials, military technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robots are advancing from technology to commercialization [8] - This trend is beneficial for platform-based internet companies in AI commercialization as well as for hard technology and its upstream supply [8] External Variables and Capital Inflow - Historically, there is a strong negative correlation between the US dollar index and the Hang Seng Index; if the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle in September and the dollar weakens in Q4, the previously high short-selling ratio in Hong Kong stocks may trigger a short-covering rally [9] - The potential for overseas capital to flow back into A/H shares is expected to increase [9] September Outlook - The market may experience fluctuations due to external interest rates and internal expectations, but the tightest phase of the funding environment has passed, and the fundamental narrative of "AI empowerment" is set to unfold [10] - Valuations and risk premiums remain attractive, suggesting that in a "fluctuating-upward" rhythm, sectors such as technology internet (AI), innovative pharmaceuticals, high-dividend stocks, and cyclical leaders with "anti-involution" characteristics are more cost-effective main lines [10] Strategy and Allocation - The strategy focuses on capturing rebound opportunities and the main line of "qualitative change," with a shift from "price wars" to "AI efficiency" in the internet/technology sector [10] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is viewed positively, with September being a key window for positioning [10] - In the new consumption sector, performance is prioritized, emphasizing differentiation [10] - High-dividend and "anti-involution" sectors are also highlighted, with a focus on selecting companies with stable cash flow and sustainable dividends [10] Valuation Insights - The forecasted PE for the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 20.3 times, which is around 30% lower than levels seen since July 2020 [11] - The Hang Seng Index's TTM PE is about 12.3 times, significantly lower than that of the S&P 500, Nikkei, and European stocks [11] - The risk premium of the Hang Seng Index relative to 10-year government bonds is about 6.4%, making it attractive to global capital [11] Core Logic - Following the mid-year reports, the impact of "involution" is weakening, and the narrative for Q4 is shifting towards "AI empowerment," with a focus on commercialization and efficiency [12] - The direction includes AI applications, advertising efficiency improvements, and collaboration in cloud and computing services [12] - The strategy emphasizes holding quality leaders with strong execution capabilities during the concentrated period of academic and medical insurance directory catalysts in Q3 and Q4 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The seminar highlighted the positive outlook for China's economy in 2025, with a projected GDP growth of around 5%, driven by strong consumption and external demand, despite underlying challenges in supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Economic Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP growth was recorded at 5.3%, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 at 5.2%, indicating that a growth rate of 4.7% in the second half would suffice to meet the annual target [2]. - Key economic indicators showed robust performance, with new productive forces developing positively and effective risk prevention in key areas [2]. Consumption and External Demand - Social retail sales in May increased by 6.4% year-on-year, the highest in nearly two years, driven by holiday effects, early promotional activities, and substantial subsidies exceeding 300 billion yuan for major consumer goods [3]. - Exports played a crucial role in stabilizing growth, contributing nearly one-third to GDP growth in the first half, as companies rushed to ship goods to avoid U.S. tariffs [3]. Financial Indicators - Financial data indicated a narrowing gap between M1 and M2, suggesting a recovery in corporate confidence, while the growth of social financing was primarily driven by government bond issuance, which accounted for 33.6% of total social financing [4]. Policy Focus for the Second Half - The focus for the second half of 2025 will be on boosting domestic demand through consumption and infrastructure investment, as external demand may face pressures [5][6]. - The government is expected to enhance fiscal support to stimulate consumption and initiate major infrastructure projects to stabilize investment growth [6]. Long-term Economic Strategy - To address the core issue of supply exceeding demand, long-term reforms are necessary, including income distribution reforms to increase residents' income and create a more balanced economic growth model [6][7]. - The current low-price environment poses challenges for corporate profitability, necessitating a comprehensive approach that includes fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms [7].

新华财经上海9月4日电（记者杜康）钢铁行业在"反内卷"背景下，上半年率先通过行业自律减量与成本 管控，实现利润边际改善。行业人士认为，钢铁行业"反内卷"路径清晰，未来行业集中度将进一步提 升。 宝钢股份半年报显示，公司2025年上半年营收1513.7亿元，同比下降7.3%；归母净利润48.8亿元，同比 增长7.4%。经营性现金流166.47亿元，同比大增190%，盈利能力保持行业前列，经营业绩保持行业第 一。公司董事长邹继新表示，将聚焦中高端产品，中高端钢材的竞争力相对较强，无论贸易壁垒和关税 壁垒如何，只要有需求，其市场表现总会优于中低端产品。 新钢股份2025年上半年营收175.12亿元，同比下降18.33%；归母净利润1.11亿元，实现扭亏为盈。公司 称，公司成立产销研专项攻关团队，高端品种材销量全面提升。其中，热卷高端品种增幅97.6%，优 钢、硅钢增幅超20%，中厚板增幅18.4%，优棒品种率增至70%。 半年报显示，"反内卷"已成为跨行业共识：光伏、锂电、汽车等新兴产业强调技术升级与效率优先，钢 铁等传统行业通过行业自律和成本管控率先实现盈利修复。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

业内人士认为，汽车行业"反内卷"的成效将在下半年逐渐显现，具备品牌和技术优势的公司有望率先突 围。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)汽车行业的"反内卷"最为直观。新能源车补贴退坡、竞争加剧后，多家沪市车企在 2025年半年报中明确提出"反内卷"，强调走差异化和效率化路线。 长城汽车（601633）股份有限公司2025年上半年营收908.69亿元，同比增长41.67%；归母净利润63.37 亿元，同比增长74.15%。公司认为，"以旧换新"政策持续释放消费潜力，内需市场显著回暖，成为行业 增长的重要支撑。汽车行业需加强政策引导与自律规范，通过倡导"反内卷"理念，避免同质化竞争与资 源内耗，共同推动中国汽车产业高质量发展，迈向"汽车强国"的目标。 上海汽车集团股份有限公司2025年上半年营收2995.88亿元，同比增长5.23%；归母净利润60.18亿元， 同比下降9.21%。公司在半年报中表示，汽车行业竞争激烈，整体盈利水平持续承压，强自律、反内 卷、稳预期、促发展的要求进一步凸显。公司全力以赴开拓市场，整车销量实现两位数增长，经济运行 保持企稳回升势头，经营韧性得到巩固增强。 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The photovoltaic sector has been significantly impacted by "involution," leading companies to emphasize the importance of "de-pricing wars" in their half-year reports [1][3] - Major photovoltaic companies in the Shanghai market are focusing on technological upgrades and cash flow improvements as core strategies for the second half of the year [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Longi Green Energy reported a revenue of 32.813 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 14.83%, with a net loss of 2.569 billion yuan, although the loss has narrowed compared to previous quarters [1] - Tongwei Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 40.509 billion yuan, down 7.51% year-on-year, with a net loss of 4.955 billion yuan; the company maintained a 30% global market share in high-purity silicon and reported a 31.33% increase in component sales [2] - JinkoSolar's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 31.831 billion yuan, a decline of 32.63%, with a net loss of 2.909 billion yuan; the company has focused on overseas markets, achieving over 60% of its shipments internationally [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - Longi Green Energy aims to lead industry standards and improve product quality to promote industry progress and development, with a goal to achieve breakeven in gross profit and expenses by Q4 2025 [1] - Tongwei emphasizes the synergy between its "green energy" and "green agriculture" sectors to enhance operational efficiency amid industry challenges [2] - Industry experts suggest that the key to "de-involution" in the photovoltaic sector lies in technological iteration and self-discipline, with leading companies potentially stabilizing the industry by moving away from price competition [3]

Non-Banking Financials - China Ping An (601318.SH) reported a revenue of 500.1 billion and a net profit of 68 billion for H1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% and a decline of 8.8% respectively [2][8] - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased by 3.7% to 77.7 billion, while the net assets rose by 1.7% to 944 billion [2][8] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance grew by 39.8%, and the combined ratio (COR) for property insurance improved by 2.6 percentage points to 95.2% [2][8] Pharmaceuticals - Zai Lab (688266.SH) achieved a total revenue of 376 million, marking a 56.07% increase year-on-year, although it reported a net loss of 73 million [13][14] - The company’s key product, Gika Xini, was approved for market, expected to generate significant revenue [14][15] - The pipeline includes promising candidates like ZG005 and ZG006, which are in various stages of clinical trials and have shown strong efficacy [15][16] Utilities and Environmental Protection - China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) reported a revenue of 40.973 billion, a 9.43% increase, but a net profit of 5.67 billion, down 3.66% year-on-year [18][19] - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of 0.02 per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [20] - The company has 19 units under construction or approved, with a total capacity of approximately 22GW, ensuring long-term growth [20] Medical Devices - Haitai New Light (688677.SH) reported a revenue of 266 million, a 20.50% increase, and a net profit of 74 million, up 5.52% [22][23] - The company’s medical endoscope revenue reached 207 million, with significant growth in overseas markets [23][24] - The gross margin for the company improved to 65.84%, driven by increased sales and operational efficiency [23][24] Construction and Building Materials - Jianghe Group (601886.SH) reported a revenue of 9.339 billion, a decrease of 5.86%, but a net profit increase of 1.69% to 328 million [30][31] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio of 51.82%, indicating strong investor returns [30][31] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with significant growth in orders from international markets [31][32] Transportation - Shentong Express (002468.SZ) achieved a revenue of 25.02 billion, a 16.02% increase, but faced a net profit decline of 3.73% [37][38] - The company’s market share reached 12.9%, with a significant volume of 6.54 billion parcels processed [38][39] - The company is focusing on digital transformation and improving customer service to enhance profitability amid competitive pricing pressures [39][40]

宁波杉杉股份（600884）有限公司2025年上半年营收98.58亿元，同比增长11.78%；归母净利润2.07亿 元，同比大幅增长逾10倍。公司表示，云南一体化生产基地完成石墨化工艺升级，自主研发的厢式炉工 艺在石墨化加工中成本优势显著，其通过大箱体提升负极材料有效容积，实现了装炉量增加和单位成本 下降，进一步降低石墨化加工成本，提升产品整体盈利水平。 本报讯(记者毛艺融)在锂电产业链上，"反内卷"成为行业共识。行业人士认为，锂电行业新需求不断释 放，人工智能数据中心(AIDC)、海外市场、储能市场、商用车电动化等都在带来市场增量。 业内人士认为，"反内卷"正推动锂电行业由盲目扩产转向质量和效率竞争，具备成本优势与技术积累的 企业率先受益。 在需求拉动下，龙头企业产能偏紧、出现扩产需求，锂电行业显现出即将走出周期底部的向好迹象。多 家公司在半年报中提出要"减无序扩张、提良率、控账期"，行业盈利修复已率先体现在负极材料环节。 浙江华友钴业（603799）股份有限公司2025年上半年营收371.97亿元，同比增长23.78%；归母净利润 27.11亿元，同比增长62.26%。公司依托镍、钴产业链一体化和产品结构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, with a notable loss in Q2 due to falling industrial silicon prices and operational challenges [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, down 26.34% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, a decrease of 140.60% year-on-year [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 4.548 billion yuan, a decline of 42.11% year-on-year and 13.02% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -657 million yuan, down 245.87% year-on-year and 352.93% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The gross profit margin was 7.92%, down 15.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -4.23%, down 11.41 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Market Conditions - The industrial silicon price significantly decreased in Q2 2025 due to weak raw material prices and macroeconomic pessimism, leading to a decline in sales volume and prices [2]. - The company sold 214,600 tons of industrial silicon in Q2, down 47.2% year-on-year and 17.4% quarter-on-quarter, with an average selling price of 7,337.8 yuan per ton, down 36.2% year-on-year [2]. Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to alleviate the downward price trend in the market, benefiting the company as it focuses on eliminating low-price competition and phasing out outdated capacity [3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are gradually improving, with expectations for industrial silicon prices to stabilize and recover as market demand rebounds [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is leveraging its advantages in industrial chain collaboration to strengthen its position as a dual leader in industrial silicon and organic silicon [4]. - Efforts include reducing energy consumption in industrial silicon production and enhancing product quality through technological upgrades and process optimization [4]. - New product developments, such as amino silicone oil and organic silicone emulsions, are positioned to meet international standards and cater to various industries [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 23.082 billion, 29.376 billion, and 31.269 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.019 billion, 2.121 billion, and 2.677 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its industry leadership and growth potential despite current challenges [4].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on September 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component down 2.83% to 12118.70 points, and the ChiNext Index down 4.25% to 2776.25 points [1] - The total trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 25,819 billion yuan, an increase of 1,862 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector showed strong performance, with retail, beverage manufacturing, food processing, tourism and hotels, beauty care, dairy, duty-free shops, and prepared dishes all rising [4] - According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, domestic tourism is expected to reach 1.43 billion trips during the summer of 2025, recovering to 112% of the level in the same period of 2019, with travel service imports and exports exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first time [4] - Data from the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday bookings indicate a 230% year-on-year increase in outbound travel inquiries and a 30% increase in domestic long-distance travel bookings compared to pre-pandemic levels [4] - A report from Caitong Securities highlights that the Ministry of Commerce plans to introduce several policies to expand service consumption in September, which will directly stimulate dining consumption, particularly benefiting wedding banquets and group meals [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic Equipment Sector - The photovoltaic equipment sector remained active, supported by a new action plan from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation aimed at achieving high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry [6] - The plan emphasizes the need to eliminate "involution" competition and promote orderly layout in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries, while also implementing quality management for photovoltaic components and lithium battery products [6] - Recent price increases in photovoltaic glass, with a reported rise of 2 yuan per square meter for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass, are expected to enhance profitability for leading photovoltaic glass manufacturers [6] - According to CITIC Securities, the photovoltaic industry chain is likely to see a reasonable price recovery and profit restoration, with a focus on technological innovation as a key to overcoming homogenized competition [6]