消息称欧佩克+或超预期增产 金十数据5月30日讯，消息人士称，欧佩克+ 可能在周六的会议上讨论7月份将石油产量提高超过41.1万 桶/日的方案。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-30 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 供应预期增大，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 晨会纪要 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

能源化工丨日报 2025 年 05 月 29 日 广金期货研究中心 能源化工研究员 马琛 020-88523420 期货从业资格证号： F03095619 投资咨询资格证号： Z0017388 关注部分地区石油供应中断，油价上涨 核心观点 一、欧美原油期货价格上涨 5 月 28 日（周三），纽约商品期货交易所 WTI 7 月原油即期合约 收盘上涨 0.95 美元/桶，至 61.84 美元/桶，涨幅 1.56%。洲际交易所 布伦特 7 月原油即期合约收盘上涨 0.81 美元/桶，至 64.9 美元/桶，涨 幅 1.26%。 欧佩克+将于本周六举行另一轮谈判，届时可能达成进一步加速 7 月石油增产的协议。代表们称，周六参会的 8 个正逐步增产的欧佩克 +成员国，可能同意 7 月每日增产 41.1 万桶，与 5 月和 6 月的增幅一 致。 三、上周美国原油和汽油库存下降 美国石油协会(API)公布的数据显示，上周美国原油和汽油库存下 降，馏分油库存上升。API 报告显示，截至 5 月 23 日当周，美国原油 库存减少 424 万桶，汽油库存减少 52.8 万桶，馏分油库存增加 130 万桶。分析师此前预测，上周美国 ...

Group 1 - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain its current oil production quota plan, reaffirming the overall crude oil production levels established in December last year, with a planned reduction of approximately 2 million barrels per day by the end of next year [1] - A key focus is on a subgroup of eight member countries that will decide on increasing oil production by 410,000 barrels per day during a meeting on Saturday, with expectations to raise this figure to 1.37 million barrels per day by July [1][2] - There is skepticism regarding the actual implementation of the announced production increases, with estimates suggesting that up to one-third of the planned increase may not materialize, resulting in a more modest increase of 1.1 million barrels per day by July [2][4] Group 2 - Iraq has reduced its production to official target levels but has not fully complied with its compensatory cuts, while Kazakhstan has increased its production significantly above its adjusted targets [4] - If Iraq and Kazakhstan maintain their production levels from March to April, the overall increase in production by July could drop from 1.37 million barrels per day to 972,000 barrels per day, a reduction of nearly 30% [4] - Not all new oil supplies will enter the global market, as demand in the Middle East typically surges during the hot summer months, potentially consuming a significant portion of Saudi Arabia's increased production [6]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in oil production by 1.37 million barrels per day, but actual supply growth may be significantly lower due to various constraints [1][4] - The agreed production increase from March to July includes contributions from several member countries, with Saudi Arabia contributing the largest increase of 167,000 barrels per day [5] - Compliance issues from countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan raise concerns about their ability to meet production targets, potentially reducing the actual supply increase to 972,000 barrels per day, which is only 71% of the nominal increase [7] Group 2 - Domestic oil consumption in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, is expected to rise significantly during the summer peak, potentially consuming over 80% of the increased production from Saudi Arabia alone [7] - Historical data indicates that Saudi Arabia's domestic oil consumption surged by 460,000 barrels per day from March to July last year, suggesting a similar trend could occur this year [7]

| 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年05月29日 | | 原油 | なな女 | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 液化石油气 文☆☆ | | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 沥青 | なな女 | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 受美国国际贸易法院暂停特朗普部分关税生效的影响,风险资产市场情绪总体修复,SC07合约日内涨幅达2.98%。 昨日第39届OPEG+部长级会议宣布维持25-26年产量基线不变，并将根据成员国最大可持续产能制定2027年产量基 线、5月31日自愿减产8国的快速增产指引仍令市场担忧。上周API美原油库存超预期下降423.6万桶，关注今晚EIA 库存结果。原油市场短期受特朗普关税避阻影响需求预期得到提振，但特朗普政府上诉后胜出并重新实施关税 ...

Group 1: OPEC+ Decisions and Production Capacity - OPEC+ decided to maintain current production quotas and will establish a mechanism to assess each member's production capacity as a reference for the 2027 output baseline [1][2] - The introduction of the production baseline clause is seen as a policy basis for potential future capacity releases and quota arrangements [2] - OPEC+ currently produces about half of the world's oil and has implemented three voluntary production cut plans since 2022, with one plan led by eight member countries limiting production by 2.2 million barrels per day [4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Outlook - International oil prices fell below $60 in April due to OPEC+ production increases and concerns over global economic weakness [5] - OPEC has revised its global economic growth forecast down to 2.9% for this year, while maintaining a 3.1% forecast for next year, indicating ongoing trade-related uncertainties [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its global oil demand growth forecast, expecting an increase of 740,000 barrels per day next year, driven by strong production from non-OPEC+ countries [6] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors and Market Competition - Geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Iran nuclear situation are expected to disrupt supply [8] - The release of OPEC's voluntary production limits is anticipated to be completed by September, potentially leading to a significant increase in global oil inventories [8] - The current market environment suggests a competitive struggle for market share, with oil prices unlikely to rise significantly without positive economic data [8]

每周一景： 云南玉龙雪山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【固收 】 转债市场信用冲击风险可控 2024 年 6-8 月转债市场发生信用冲击，评级下调只是诱因，深层次原因在于权益市场持续下跌。 2024 年共有 64 只转债被下调评级， 6 月为评级下调的高峰，达到 40 只。 2022 年 6 月和 2023 年 6 月被 下调评级的转债数量分别为 25 只和 26 只，但均未引发市场的剧烈反应。因此，评级下调只是诱因， 2024 年转债大面积跌破面值的深层次原因在于，权益市场 2022-2024 年持续下跌，转债的平价整体处 于低位，同时， 2024 年权益市场退市规则进一步趋严、个别转债信用风险暴露、正股上涨预期趋弱、大 量转债即将进入回售期或到期，当平价和债底均无法支撑转债的价格，转债的定价锚失效，转债的供需平 衡迅速被打破。过度悲观带来的超卖行为导致大量转债被错误定价。 下调评级的理由通常是几方面的结合： 行业格局恶化，景气度走弱；连续 2 年亏损，或首年亏损幅度较 大（盈利能力大幅恶化），存在商誉减值、存货和营收款减值等侵蚀利润的风险；偿债指标较差，负债率 较高，未来资本支出较高，显示偿债能力较弱；负 ...

大豆市场"明牌增产"为何不敢跌？巴西玉米收获延迟，短期供应缺口风险几何？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose slightly, but the market lacks strong drivers. The main logic is the dynamic game between OPEC+ production - increase expectations and Russia - sanction risks. - In the short - term, observe opportunities to short on rebounds. WTI is expected to fluctuate in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [440, 500]. In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a band - trading strategy. [2] Methanol - The inland methanol market has downward valuation pressure. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are divided. The port has entered a inventory - accumulation period. - Suggest to short MA09 contract on rallies. [5] LLDPE and PP - Spot prices continue to fall, and overall trading is weak. LLDPE has inventory - reduction expectations before early June, while PP will face increasing supply pressure after late May. - Short PP on rallies; the LP spread is expected to widen. [9] Urea - The urea market is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 1900 yuan/ton around the Dragon Boat Festival. Pay attention to signals such as wheat - harvest progress in northern Anhui, port pre - collection scale, and the operating rate of Shanxi's fixed - bed plants. [19] Styrene - The pure benzene market price is weak, but there is an expected turnaround as styrene plants resume operation. - The styrene port inventory has started to accumulate, and the 3S products have limited driving force. Adopt a short - selling strategy for near - month contracts. [30] Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, but short - term support is strong. Consider a long - position around 6600 and a short - spread between PX9 - 1. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, but support is strong at low processing fees. Pay attention to polyester production cuts. Consider a long - position around 4600 and a short - spread between TA9 - 1. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for EG9 - 1. - **Short - fiber**: Processing fees may recover. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread. - **Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Follow PTA's single - side strategy and expand the processing - fee spread in the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range. [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited, and demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand and high valuations. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a long - spread strategy for 6 - 9 contracts. - **PVC**: The market is weak due to poor sentiment. Long - term contradictions are prominent, but short - term supply pressure is limited. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading and a short - selling strategy for the 09 contract above 5100. [39][40] 3. Summary by Catalog Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.00%); WTI increased by 0.35 to 61.24 dollars/barrel (0.57%); SC decreased by 3.90 to 453.50 yuan/barrel (-0.85%). [2] - **Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.40 to 207.55 cents/gallon (0.19%); NYM ULSD increased by 0.50 to 208.44 cents/gallon (0.24%); ICE Gasoil decreased by 3.75 to 606.00 dollars/ton (-0.62%). [2] - **Product Crack Spreads**: Most crack spreads showed small changes, with some increasing and some decreasing. [2] Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2505 decreased by 64 to 2229 yuan/ton (-2.79%); the MA2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 48 to 21 yuan/ton (-69.57%). - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.2 to 33.401% (-0.52%); port inventory increased by 0.6 to 49.0 million tons (1.34%). - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.0 to 74.51% (-1.31%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate increased by 7.9 to 83.54% (10.39%). [5] LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: L2505 decreased by 73 to 6986 yuan/ton (-1.03%); PP2509 decreased by 33 to 6896 yuan/ton (-0.48%). - **Operating Rates**: PE device operating rate decreased by 1.43 to 78.0% (-1.80%); PP device operating rate increased by 0.28 to 76.8% (0.4%). - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 2.94 to 49.8 million tons (-5.57%); PP enterprise inventory decreased by 1.12 to 59.3 million tons (-1.85%). [9] Urea - **Futures Prices**: 01, 05, and 09 contracts all showed slight decreases. - **Raw Material and Production Costs**: Most raw material prices were stable, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 50 to 2120 yuan/ton (-2.30%). - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.30 to 20.48 million tons (1.49%); factory inventory increased by 10.02 to 91.74 million tons (12.26%). [14][17][19] Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.6 to 64.1 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Styrene's East - China spot price increased by 75 to 7900 yuan/ton (1.0%); EB2506 decreased by 28 to 7313 yuan/ton (-0.4%). - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene port inventory increased by 0.5 to 12.8 million tons (4.1%); styrene port inventory decreased by 1.8 to 7.5 million tons (-19.0%). [27][28][30] Polyester Industry - **Raw Material Prices**: Brent crude oil (July) decreased by 0.65 to 64.09 dollars/barrel (-1.0%); CFR Japan naphtha increased by 1.0 to 567.0 dollars/ton (0.2%). - **Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price remained at 6990 yuan/ton; polyester bottle - chip price decreased by 81 to 5941 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Operating Rates**: Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.9 to 69.4% (2.8%); polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.1 to 95.0% (1.2%). [34] Chlor - alkali Industry - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 62.5 to 2750 yuan/ton (2.3%); East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price decreased by 60 to 4700 yuan/ton (-1.3%). - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.1 to 86.9% (1.3%); PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.9 to 73.1% (-1.2%). - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East - China factory inventory decreased by 0.4 to 19.1 million tons (-1.9%); PVC total social inventory decreased by 2.0 to 37.8 million tons (-4.9%). [39][40]