Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]

Group 1 - The dominant logic in the bond market since May 2025 is major asset allocation rather than "fundamentals + liquidity" [9][10][11] - The low interest rate environment has led to a significant change in residents' asset allocation behavior, with bonds being viewed as "low odds assets" compared to other higher value assets [10][11] - Key indicators to observe the intensity and sustainability of fund diversion include the scale of asset management products, the rate of new resident accounts, margin balances, and non-bank deposits [11][12] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" narrative has altered the macroeconomic discourse, shifting from "weak demand + falling prices" to a focus on improving corporate profitability and potential inflation [17][19] - The bond market's response to "anti-involution" should not be overestimated in the short term, but its long-term impact on price improvement and valuation reassessment is significant [19][20] Group 3 - The bond market should focus on three main expectation differences: external demand, liquidity expectations, and policy expectations, particularly on the demand side [21][22] - The risks in the bond market are gradually being released, with potential pressures from fund diversion and crowded trading structures expected in August to October 2025 [22][24] Group 4 - The expansion of credit bond ETFs presents both opportunities and risks, with potential for increased market volatility and the need for caution regarding component bonds [27][29] - Short-term strategies for credit bonds may involve exploring yield spreads, while caution is advised for long-duration credit bonds and ETFs as they approach profit-taking windows [30][32] Group 5 - The progress of the Southbound Bond Connect expansion offers investment opportunities, particularly in local government bonds and international agency bonds [33][34] - The performance of dim sum bonds is expected to remain strong, with a focus on short-duration sovereign bonds and high-quality local government bonds [34] Group 6 - The approach to low-volatility convertible bonds should shift towards trading rather than allocation, as their trading range narrows [36] - High-volatility convertible bonds should be viewed through a lens of allocation, especially if strong redemption announcements are made [37] Group 7 - The optimal fixed income combination should include short pure bonds as a base, supplemented by mid-to-low-rated convertible bonds and dividend stocks for a balanced portfolio [38]

Report Overview - The report is the "Weekly Report on the Operation of Major Asset Classes (20250811 - 20250815)", analyzing the performance of global and domestic major asset classes during the week from August 11th to August 15th, 2025, and providing price outlooks [1][3][6] Global Major Asset Performance Global Stock Market - Global major stock markets generally rose, with the Asia - Pacific region leading in gains and emerging markets outperforming developed markets. The VIX index oscillated at a low level weekly [8] - MSCI Asia - Pacific had a weekly increase of 2.44%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.65%. In the Americas, IPSA Chile 40 had a weekly increase of 2.57% [11][12] Global Bond Market - Fed officials' statements had significant differences. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 6BP to 4.33% weekly, and the bond market oscillated. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [12] - The global bond index had a weekly increase of 0.01%, the global government bond index decreased by 0.05%, and the global credit bond index increased by 0.21% [13] Global Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index continued to decline weekly, with a weekly drop of 0.43%. Most major non - US currencies appreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate oscillated [14] Global Commodity Market - International precious metal prices declined. Russian oil sanctions expectations cooled, and international oil prices oscillated. Non - ferrous metals and agricultural products had mixed price movements [19] Domestic Major Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market - A - share major broad - based indices generally rose weekly, with the average daily trading volume of the two markets increasing compared to the previous week. The growth style was more prominent. Communication and comprehensive finance led in gains, while banks and steel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index had a weekly increase of 1.70% [21] Domestic Bond Market - The bond market declined weekly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24] Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oilseeds led in gains, while precious metals underperformed. The Nanhua Commodity Index had a weekly increase of 0.52% [25][26] Major Asset Price Outlook - The market is short - term focused on the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. Attention should be paid to whether Fed Chairman Powell's speech releases signals related to monetary policy [3][28]

Group 1 - The current market rally is driven by a reassessment of confidence in the Chinese economy, which has shown resilience despite external pressures such as tariffs [1][2] - Significant events in various sectors, including AI, pharmaceuticals, and military, have bolstered market confidence in Chinese assets [1] - The market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend, differing from previous years, with a more gradual increase in stock prices and less reliance on high-risk funding [3] Group 2 - The overall profit growth has not fully materialized, indicating that the current market sentiment is more about restoring confidence rather than immediate financial performance [3] - Institutional investors are gradually reallocating funds from the bond market to the stock market, reflecting a rational assessment of valuations [3] - The market has not seen a significant influx of retail investors, with new account openings and fund subscriptions remaining stable [3]

Core Viewpoint - The asset management industry is undergoing significant changes, necessitating a transformation in product systems, core research capabilities, and customer service frameworks to adapt to market dynamics and client needs [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Changes - The asset management market has experienced substantial shifts, with traditional asset scarcity continuing while the equity market shows signs of improvement [3]. - There is an acceleration in the reallocation of household wealth, with deposits flowing out of traditional accounts and increasing demand for wealth management products [3]. Group 2: Product System Transformation - The focus should shift from "deposit-like" products to genuine asset management products, requiring a complete overhaul of the product system [4]. - The new product offerings must align with market trends and client risk preferences, providing a diverse range of stable investment options [3][4]. Group 3: Core Research Capability Development - The company is concentrating on building a systematic and platform-based research framework, particularly in multi-asset and multi-strategy allocation [4][5]. - The goal is to ensure that the systematic and platform-based construction is effectively implemented across the organization [3][4]. Group 4: Customer Service System Construction - Establishing a robust ecosystem that integrates clients, channels, and asset management companies is crucial for transitioning from "deposit-like" to asset management models [4]. - A well-constructed customer service system is a prerequisite for successful transformation and product innovation [4]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Perspective - Core assets such as equities and bonds are vital for asset management companies, with an emphasis on embracing market volatility in the bond market and moving away from bearish mindsets in the equity market [4][5]. - The current market environment necessitates a diversified approach to investment strategies, moving beyond traditional single fixed-income strategies [5]. Group 6: Industry Competition and Differentiation - The asset management industry faces challenges related to competition, including issues of "involution" where companies engage in homogeneous competition [6]. - To achieve differentiation, companies should focus on a comprehensive financial service model that integrates product offerings with customer asset allocation and wealth management, rather than solely pursuing yield [6].

Group 1 - The short-term logic of the bond market may have shifted from "fundamentals + liquidity" to "asset allocation" since July, with the bond market under pressure despite a relatively loose funding environment [6][10][28] - The 10-year government bond yield has shown an upward trend, primarily due to the thin safety cushion of fixed-income products and the cooling of fixed-income assets under the asset allocation effect [6][10][28] Group 2 - Key clues to the evolution of bond market logic include: 1) Reallocation of resident assets due to declining deposit rates since 2022, leading to a weakening of the bond market's profit-making effect [14][16] 2) An increase in residents' risk appetite, with equity assets potentially becoming the focus of asset reallocation [17][20] 3) Low odds and win rates for bond assets, as long-term bond yields have already priced in future rate cuts [18][21] Group 3 - The critical points for the rebalancing of stock and bond value include: 1) The relative comparison of dividend yields and bond yields [30] 2) Fund flows, with a potential shift in investor enthusiasm from bonds to stocks [30] 3) Changes in fundamentals, where unexpected pressures on the economy could lead to a resurgence in the bond market [30] Group 4 - The bond market strategy indicates that while risks are being released, a cautious judgment is maintained, with the 10-year government bond yield around 1.7% being unattractive [28][31] - The bond market may experience volatility from August to October, with the yield expected to range between 1.65% and 1.80%, and the potential for a steepening yield curve [28][31]

Core Insights - The global asset landscape has shifted towards a new paradigm characterized by the dominance of safe-haven assets and the differentiation of risk assets [2][3] - Client demands are evolving in three significant ways: moving from "single track" to "all-weather solutions," shifting from "relative returns" to "absolute returns + drawdown control," and transitioning from "local allocation" to "global multi-market, multi-strategy" [2][4] Industry Challenges - The asset allocation landscape faces several challenges, including pricing anchor drift due to frequent event risks such as tariffs and geopolitical issues, leading to significant estimation errors in traditional macro models [4] - There exists a paradox of "asset scarcity" alongside a "high yield demand" on the liability side, with a notable shortage of long-duration safe assets domestically [4][5] - The industry is experiencing a talent bottleneck, with a significant gap in professionals who understand both macroeconomic factors and quantitative analysis [4][5] Required Solutions - The industry needs to address three critical pain points: 1. Strategy homogenization and talent shortages, necessitating the translation of macro narratives into actionable structured tools [4][5] 2. Mismatches between product forms and liquidity, highlighting the need for innovative vehicles that offer tiered maturities and layered liquidity [5] 3. Disconnection between global allocation and local service, requiring enhanced localized research and compliance frameworks to capitalize on emerging market opportunities [5] Future Outlook - The asset management industry is at a pivotal moment, requiring deeper communication and collaboration among peers to transform uncertainties into excess returns and foster long-term value for clients [5]

Core Insights - Jianghai Securities reported significant growth in its financial performance for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching 726 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 81.17%, and net profit attributable to shareholders soaring by 1311.6% to 288 million yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Brokerage business generated 209 million yuan in revenue, up 21.11% year-on-year [1] - Investment banking revenue decreased by 16.53% to 30 million yuan [1] - Proprietary trading revenue surged by 211.77% to 406 million yuan [1] - Asset management revenue increased by 6.49% to 10 million yuan [1] - Credit business revenue rose by 112.59% to 39 million yuan [1] Business Strategy and Development - The company attributed the surge in proprietary trading revenue to improved asset allocation capabilities and enhanced investment strategies, leading to greater predictability and stability in overall investments [2] - The equity investment strategy focused on quantitative outsourcing, effectively mitigating risks from market volatility, while the fixed income business developed a balanced approach between bond and multi-asset investments [2] Operational Footprint - As of June 30, 2025, Jianghai Securities operated 59 branches, including 20 subsidiaries and 39 business offices, with a strong presence in Heilongjiang province [2] - The operational network is designed for comprehensive coverage in Heilongjiang and extended reach to coastal areas and provincial capitals [2] Compliance Issues - The Heilongjiang Securities Regulatory Bureau issued a warning to Jianghai Securities' Mudanjiang Suifenhe Cultural Street Securities Office for failing to manage employee conduct and customer complaints effectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "fixed income +" products have regained popularity in the context of a recovering equity market, with a total market size reaching 1.55 trillion yuan as of June 30, reflecting a 7.1% growth from the previous quarter [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The recognition of "fixed income +" funds is attributed to their strong performance this year, with some top-performing products returning over 5% year-to-date and over 10% in the past year [2] - The Guangfa Jiyu fund, managed by Zeng Gang, achieved a 6.70% return year-to-date, significantly outperforming its benchmark of -1.01% [2] - Over the past year, the fund's net value growth rate reached 13.10%, ranking in the top 10% among ordinary bond funds [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy of "fixed income +" products focuses on balancing risk and return, with two main management approaches: selecting low-volatility assets and considering the overall proportion of risk assets [1][3] - Zeng Gang's management style is characterized by a "balanced and flexible" approach, dynamically adjusting positions based on market changes [2] - The Guangfa Jiyu fund has shown flexibility in its asset allocation, with significant adjustments in convertible bond holdings in response to market conditions [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a low interest rate and low yield environment, with limited short-term risks [3] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are anticipated to perform well in the second half of the year, supported by China's manufacturing advantages and potential improvements in competitive dynamics in certain industries [3] - The outlook suggests that competitive leading enterprises will enhance their investment value, with overall corporate profitability likely to rise amid the backdrop of U.S.-China competition [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Global Economic Environment**: The global economy is experiencing a dual easing of monetary and fiscal policies, particularly benefiting Europe and China, leading to a phase of economic moderation that supports exports and overall growth [1][5] - **US Economic Resilience**: Despite fluctuations in non-farm payroll data, the US job market remains stable with an unemployment rate around 4.2%, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in September and December to address uncertainties [1][11] Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth Forecast**: The US GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, which is a healthy decline from potential growth rates, avoiding recession risks [1][8][9] - **China's Export Outlook**: The postponement of the US-China joint communiqué negotiations provides stability for Chinese exports, which are expected to improve, with trade surpluses likely to reach new highs [1][5][14] - **Domestic Demand Risks**: China's economic slowdown in the second half of the year is primarily driven by domestic demand, particularly in infrastructure and real estate, with expectations for the real estate market to stabilize by Q3 of the following year [1][16][17] Additional Important Content - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: Stocks are viewed as having better relative value compared to bonds, with short-term optimism for the pharmaceutical and TMT sectors, and a one-year outlook favoring machinery and automotive industries [1][20] - **Commodity Price Outlook**: A bearish outlook on oil prices is noted, with copper prices expected to slightly decline, and precious metals prices likely to remain capped due to limited impact from Fed rate cuts [1][23][24] - **Real Estate and Oil & Gas Sector Evaluation**: The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization but lacks conditions for sustained recovery, while the oil and gas sector is advised to be avoided due to strong supply expectations and weak demand [1][24][25] Conclusion - **Overall Economic Stability**: The US economy is projected to maintain a relatively stable trajectory despite challenges, with the potential for a new round of interest rate cuts initiated by the Federal Reserve in response to economic uncertainties [1][12][13]