【导读】全球资管巨头骏利亨德森投资公司目前正考虑减仓10%美国资产 据彭博社报道，全球资管巨头骏利亨德森投资公司目前正考虑减少其对美国资产的敞口，中国是其资金 转向目的地之一。 减仓10%美国资产 资金可以转移到欧洲、中国、中东和拉丁美洲 骏利亨德森首席执行官Ali Dibadj在本周对媒体的邮件中表示，"鉴于美国例外论出现了裂痕的迹象，我 们可能会看到10%的客户风险敞口或管理资产从美国资产中退出并重新配置。资金可以转移到欧洲、中 国、中东和拉丁美洲。" 骏利亨德森投资资产管理规模为3790亿美元。Dibadj表示，"如果美国例外论破灭，大量资金可能会从 美国资产中转移。即使转移的比例很小，也意味着资金会大量流向其他地方。" 他补充称，与此同时，中国与美国脱钩并推动科技领域的自力更生，这也给中国资产带来了一些投资机 会。许多全球投资者目前已对特朗普在关税和美联储独立性等问题上的反复无常感到厌倦。 对此，Dibadj还表示，在关税争端获得持久性解决方案前，不确定性可能持续高企。今年迄今为止，标 普500指数已累计下跌了10%，而除美国以外的MSCI全球指数上涨了4.4%。如果这一趋势持续下去，这 将是这一美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the potential end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, suggesting that U.S. assets may no longer outperform global counterparts, leading to a shift in investment strategies towards other regions and asset classes [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - The decline of the dollar and the peak of dollar assets began in January, coinciding with the bond market's reaction to U.S. legislators [2][3]. - U.S. fiscal spending is a significant factor in the potential end of "American exceptionalism," with global capital seeking new investment destinations [2][3]. - The U.S. market may enter a five-year cycle of underperformance compared to global markets, with the perception of "oversold" conditions needing reevaluation [2][3][4]. - The U.S. asset performance is increasingly resembling that of emerging market countries, indicating a transition into a weak dollar era [2][3][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical and Policy Implications - The current geopolitical landscape is characterized as multipolar rather than binary, challenging the "pseudo-Cold War model" that investors often rely on [2][3]. - The U.S. government's focus on bond yields over stock performance suggests a strategic approach to managing economic downturns [2][3]. - Trade negotiations with countries like Japan and South Korea may be too late to restore confidence and mitigate impacts on capital and consumer behavior [2][3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Future market winners are expected to include Canada, Europe, Japan, non-aligned countries, and commodities, while the U.S. is likely to be a significant loser [3][4]. - There is a growing optimism towards Latin American assets, which are currently undervalued and exempt from recent tariffs [3][4]. - The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to diversify away from overexposed U.S. assets and consider emerging markets and commodities as viable alternatives in a weak dollar environment [3][4].

关税战正在让世界加速"卖出美国"。 不到半个月，美国市场两度出现"股债汇"三杀情形：一天之内，被视为"全球资产定价之锚"的美国国债遭抛售，并伴随着美股大跌、美元历史性走低。 这些信息向世界传递一个清晰信号：资金正在加速逃离美国。 过去，经济动荡会促使资金回流美元和美债。如今，彭博社形容，华盛顿已成为动荡的中心。美元和美国国债，这些传统避风港，突然变得不那么有吸引 力。 美国"股债汇"同步重挫的情形相当罕见。自1971年以来，美国市场仅有6个月出现过类似情况。上一次要追溯到两年前，当时美联储坚持紧缩政策以抑制 通胀预期，市场担忧美国经济衰退风险提升。 今昔迥异。 本次抛售风暴的核心原因是投资者担忧美联储的独立性遭到侵蚀。 近期，美国政府与美联储的矛盾频繁出现，美联储主席鲍威尔被接连要求立即降息，白宫承认"正在研究"解除鲍威尔职务的可能性。 尽管此种情况发生的概率很小，但有关表态引起市场不安，美股一度下行。 分析师们则普遍认为，对美联储的攻击，主要是想让其为即将到来的经济疲软"背锅"。"股债汇"三杀上演后，又试图安抚市场情绪。 《华尔街日报》援引美国参议院银行委员会原主席格拉姆的话说，本届政府已在国际贸易政策方面 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the U.S. financial hegemony, exacerbated by Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, leading to a loss of confidence in the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [1][2][4]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Policies - Trump's recent criticisms of the Federal Reserve, including threats to dismiss Chairman Powell, have intensified trade tensions and prompted a reassessment of key assets supporting U.S. economic dominance [3][4]. - The so-called "Trump trade," which was initially seen as a boost to the "American exceptionalism," is now perceived as a "sell-off" of American assets, raising concerns about the role of U.S. households as the "last buyers" in the global economy [5][6]. - The shift towards protectionist policies under Trump has damaged the U.S. reputation, leading to a decrease in investor confidence and a reluctance to invest in U.S. assets [8][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Since April 2, the S&P 500 index has dropped nearly 10%, resulting in a market capitalization loss of approximately $4.8 trillion [10]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index has fallen over 7% this year, marking the worst start since its inception in 2005, while U.S. Treasury yields have seen their largest weekly increase in over 20 years [11][12]. - The traditional relationship between the dollar and bond yields has weakened, indicating a general market aversion to U.S. assets and skepticism towards traditional safe-haven tools [11][13]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - Foreign investors hold approximately $19 trillion in U.S. equities, $7 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, and $5 trillion in corporate bonds, accounting for 20% to 30% of the U.S. market [7]. - Despite the current loss of confidence in U.S. credit, there are no viable alternatives in the market, as the euro lacks the necessary depth and political stability to compete with the U.S. dollar [14][15]. - Rebuilding trust in U.S. financial systems will be a long and challenging process, but no other country currently possesses the capability to replace the U.S. in financial markets [16].

要说折腾，现在特朗普称第二，没人敢称第一。之前用对等关税，差点把美债打到崩盘。上周特朗普说 考虑撤换美联储主席，使美联储的独立性受到质疑，投资者对美国经济的信心再次受到打击，对冲基金 大举抛售美元兑几乎所有货币，导致美元指数暴跌100多点，一度跌破98关口。 | 序号 代码 t | | 名称 | . 最新 | 淵鉄 | 涨幅% | 买一个 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | USDX | 美元指数 | 98.02100 | -1.21400 | -1.22 | | -9.64 | | 2 | USDSGD | 美元兑新加坡元 | 1.30158 | -0.01007 | -0.77 | 1.30152 | -4.30 | | 3 | USDJPY | 美元兑日元 | 140.56750 | -1.61150 | -1.13 | 140.56450 | -10.38 | | ব | USDHKD | 美元兒港币 | 7.76105 | -0.00082 | -0.01 | 7.76100 | -0.08 | | ...

衡量美元对六种主要货币汇率变化的美元指数过去数月来大幅震荡走低。截至北京时间4月21日12时，洲 际交易所美元指数报98.40，跌幅0.98%，跌破99关口，为2022年4月以来首次。 分析人士认为，美元指数前期走低主要受美国经济增速下调和经济衰退可能性增加驱动，近日该指数大幅 下跌则是进一步受到投资者对美元信心动摇和资金从美国流出的影响。有媒体刊文称，美国贸易政策反复 变动，世界开始质疑美元作为世界储备货币的作用。 "特朗普关税政策正在毁掉美元" 德意志银行日前警告，美国政府的政策决定可能导致全球"去美元化"加剧，市场参与者在重新评估美元作 为世界储备货币的吸引力。 德国《每日新闻》网站刊文认为，特朗普的关税政策正在毁掉美元。美国近期关税政策朝令夕改且常常自 相矛盾，有很大的随意性和不可预测性，在这种情况下，企业缺乏对美政策确定性的明确预期。用德国商 业银行外汇专家安特耶·普雷夫克的话说，"损害已经造成，信任已经摧毁"。美元作为避风港的地位正在迅 速崩溃，市场开始质疑美元作为世界储备货币的作用。只要全球经济事务中所有参与者都存在这种不确定 性，美元就不太可能大幅复苏。 △《纽约时报》刊文"美元持续下跌 其' ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in market expectations from "American exceptionalism" to concerns about liquidity challenges in the U.S. market, particularly in light of upcoming corporate debt maturities and the potential impact of U.S. monetary policy [1][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. market recently experienced a rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, indicating heightened market volatility and uncertainty [1]. - The dollar index has surpassed the psychological level of 100, with expectations that it may continue to rise in the second and third quarters of the year [3]. - Funds are shifting from high-yield U.S. markets to lower-yield, more liquid markets like Japan, raising concerns about global liquidity [5]. Group 2: Debt and Liquidity Risks - The article highlights that all crises are essentially debt crises disguised as other narratives, with historical examples illustrating how corporate debt maturity spikes can lead to market turmoil [7][10]. - Current liquidity indicators suggest that a liquidity crisis is just beginning, with specific metrics indicating that the market has not yet reached critical levels of risk [19]. - The article outlines three key observation markers for liquidity: the spread between onshore and offshore dollar liquidity, the dollar index's decline rate, and the OAS (option-adjusted spread) for U.S. investment-grade and high-yield bonds [16][18]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios - Three scenarios are proposed for future market developments: - Pessimistic: Both the White House and the Federal Reserve do not compromise, leading to a prolonged period of economic stagnation and declining risk appetite [22]. - Baseline: Either the White House or the Federal Reserve makes concessions, potentially stabilizing the market and improving risk sentiment [22]. - Optimistic: The White House proactively compromises, leading to a reversal in market sentiment before significant corporate bankruptcies occur [22].

美国通胀超预期降温，3月核心CPI创四年来最低同比增速，并且CPI近五年来首次环比下降。但关税战升级的威胁压倒了通胀放缓的利好，成为 市场关注的焦点，投资者担忧情绪重占上风，美股、美元这类美国资产遭抛售，避险资产瑞郎、日元、黄金全线上涨。 据央视新闻，中国商务部周四回应中方是否就关税问题与美展开谈判表示，谈，大门敞开；打，奉陪到底；外交部驻港公署发言人致信媒体阐明 中方严正立场，信中提到，妄图挥舞关税大棒逼迫世界各国打电话认输的野蛮人永远不要指望等到中国的电话。 美股未能保住周三的大反弹，周四三大美股指一度至少跌超5%，标普500指数曾跌超6%、接近熔断。美元指数创2022年以来的最大单日跌幅。 长债抛售升温，继续推升长期美国国债的收益率，十年期美债收益率一度升超10个基点。不过，美国3月CPI公布后，长债收益率曾收窄升幅，两 年期美债收益率降幅扩大、一度跳水超10个基点。 避险货币瑞郎和日元强劲反弹，瑞郎兑美元一度涨近4%，创2015年来最大盘中涨幅。同为避险资产的黄金加速上涨，现货黄金时隔一周再创盘 中历史新高。国际原油因贸易战持续的担忧而重回跌势，美国能源部EIA报告因关税及其对经济影响的不确定性而大幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign investors' stance on the US stock market is wavering, with Morgan Stanley indicating that the market may face deeper adjustments if foreign capital begins to question the "American exceptionalism" narrative and withdraws from the US market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "fast money" has exited the market, with hedge fund net exposure dropping to 37%, currently rising to 39%, which is in the 2nd percentile since 2010 [2]. - Macro systemic leverage has decreased to the 14th percentile, following a sell-off of $375 billion in stocks [2]. - Retail investors have not capitulated yet, and long-term investment clients of QDS have not shown panic selling [2]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Concerns - Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings in US stocks over the past 30 years, currently owning 18% of US equities [2]. - If this group begins to question the "American exceptionalism" and reduces their investments in US stocks, it could lead to more downside risks in the market [2]. Group 3: Tactical Outlook - QDS anticipates that stocks may be more likely to rise than fall in the coming week, but the market is expected to retest lows in the coming months due to the impact of tariff shocks and slow-moving investor sell-offs [5]. - Recent signs of capitulation include hedge fund net exposure falling below 40% and the VIX index exceeding 50, but a complete correlated sell-off has not yet occurred [6]. Group 4: Key Issues Influencing Market Direction - Four major issues are highlighted as critical for market direction: - Fundamentals: The impact of tariffs will take months to fully manifest, with historical data showing that a 20% drop in the S&P 500 typically indicates a recession [7]. - Federal Reserve: The Fed's response to economic slowdown may lag behind the situation, as indicated by Powell's comments suggesting they are not in a hurry [7]. - Foreign Flows: Actual funds, especially from outside the US, could have the most significant downside impact on the market [8]. - Financial Leverage: While much leverage has been removed from the system, not all has been, and the market is shorting Gamma values [8].

观众朋友们早上好,欢迎回来。今天早上的这个会议,我们弧线地解读一下昨天晚上特朗普新公布的新一轮的关税计划。美东时间4月2日,北京时间4月3日凌晨,特朗普签署了对等关税相关的一个行政令。 计划开始实施新一轮的全面关税针对昨天晚上关税计划具体内容是怎么样然后跟市场预期相比的话哪些超预期哪些低于预期对吧以及后面潜在的一些疑问或需要去关注的事情大家让市场的走势是怎么样我们今天接下来就挨个做一个介绍首先让我们看一下这次关税的核心的内容 有两个大的部分,第一个部分是对等关税的行政令,第二个它还签了另外一个行政令,就是针对中国的一个小额关税的,当然我们也会前台的提到。那么这个对等关税里面主要的框架是分两个部分,一个是10%的基准关税,另外一个是更高的对等关税。 是这两个部分那么特朗普说了对所有国家会征收一个10%的基准关税这个是在4月5号的凌晨生效那第二呢会对美国贸易逆差比较大的这些国家征收个性化的互惠对等的更高关税这个会在4月9号的时候去生效这里面包含的国家的范围就非常非常的广比如说大家之前在这个计划公布之前 关注度比较高的像欧盟对吧欧盟给到的是20%然后日本呢给到的是24%那越南呢这个新兴设想的国家呢反而是比较高啊越南 ...