中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 短期关税风险影响减少，市场风险偏好回升。中长期看美国财政扩张既成事实， 多国财政继续扩大，多国央行继续购买黄金，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然 | | | | 较多，长期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-785】 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 双宽松政策对白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支撑较强，受基本金属和黄 | | | | 金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 特朗普称即将对铜进口加征 50%关税，美铜爆拉 10%创历史新高，建议铜多单继续 | | | | 持有，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 累库，国内消费淡季，锌窄幅震荡，长期看，锌供增需弱，把握逢高空机会。 | | | | 沪锌关注区间【21800，22500】 | | 铅 | 反弹承压 | 原生铅冶炼厂检修后 ...

Group 1: New Zealand and Australia Economic Outlook - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the official cash rate unchanged in July, adopting a wait-and-see approach for future rate adjustments [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may allow the market to interpret potential rate changes and will decide based on economic data released before the August monetary policy statement [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand might indicate that economic activity in Q1 2025 could exceed expectations, although subsequent indicators show a slowdown in economic momentum [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia did not cut rates in July as widely anticipated, but future rate cuts remain a possibility, contingent on upcoming inflation data [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation risks have become more balanced, suggesting that while there is no immediate pressure to cut rates, it may be delayed rather than canceled [2] Group 2: Japan's Economic Challenges - Mizuho Securities analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan should maintain its current policy amid external uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs [3] - The potential for a 25% tariff on Japanese imports by the U.S. starting August 1 adds uncertainty and could negatively impact Japan's exports and overall economic performance [3] - Mitsubishi UFJ Securities economists believe that U.S. tariffs will challenge Japan's economy, especially in exports and capital investment, prompting the government to consider broader economic stimulus measures [3] - Japan's central bank plans to slow the pace of its bond purchase reduction starting April 2026, considering market stability and participant feedback [3] Group 3: Singapore's Economic Performance - DBS Group economists indicate that Singapore's economy may avoid technical recession in Q2 2025 due to early shipments by export companies, which temporarily supported actual export growth [4] - While short-term export data appears strong due to early deliveries, long-term challenges loom for Singapore's export sectors, particularly electronics and biopharmaceutical manufacturing, due to potential U.S. tariff measures [4]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 大限将至贸易谈判仍有较多问题存在。另外市场关于美国财政法案讨论较多， | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 但是已经落地，财政扩张既成事实，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然较多，长 | | | | 期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-790】 | | | | 美国财政大扩张，部分国家数据积极，白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 撑较强，品种特性弹性较大，受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间 | | | | 思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面对铜支撑有力，铜测试下方缺口上沿支撑， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜 | | | | 关注区间【78500，80500】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 累库，国内消费淡季，锌承压回落，长期看，锌供 ...

Group 1: Fiscal Impact - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, raising the deficit rate by 3-4 percentage points compared to 2010-2019 levels[2] - The average deficit rate over the next decade is projected to reach 6.4%, potentially increasing to 6.7% if certain tax cuts are extended beyond 2028[2][3] - The bill's implementation may lead to a fiscal deficit of approximately 7% in 2026, with short-term growth support for Q4 2025 and 2026[1][3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation - The bill is anticipated to provide short-term economic growth support, but its long-term effectiveness is expected to diminish, potentially exacerbating inflation[3][4] - Independent institutions estimate that the bill will only contribute an additional 0.4% to U.S. GDP over the next decade, significantly lower than the White House's estimate of 2.4%-2.7%[3] Group 3: Social and Political Consequences - The bill may worsen income and welfare distribution in the U.S., intensifying political polarization, as high-income individuals and corporations benefit more from tax cuts[5] - The average annual tax cut for the wealthiest families is projected to be $12,000, while the poorest families may face a net loss of $1,600 annually[5] Group 4: Debt Sustainability Concerns - The bill could further undermine U.S. debt sustainability, with total government debt expected to rise from 124% of GDP[4] - The vision of reducing the deficit post-2029 is considered overly optimistic, with potential increases in interest costs and lower-than-expected GDP growth[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Economic cycle: Tariff easing does not slow the cycle. Assuming the Fed's monetary policy remains cautious in the short - term (before the August central bank annual meeting), the constrained monetary liquidity (-0.42) is unlikely to change. After the short - term rebound of production and consumption indicators, the macro - economy may return to the cycle adjustment state. The real economic cycle has been more positive than expected since November 2024. As risk events land in the second and third quarters, the cycle bottoming process is expected to accelerate. The short - term economic cycle, especially the overseas economic cycle, is downgraded, and attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - demand decline on asset prices in the third quarter [8]. - Macro strategy: The US dollar may have only weakened temporarily in the first half of the year due to policy fluctuations and will turn to a safe - haven - driven rise in the second half as trade risks materialize. Gold's rise is cautious as the economic contraction effect of Tariff War 2.0 remains to be seen. The "Big Beautiful" bill expands the total scale of US Treasury bonds, and fiscal sustainability depends more on changes in interest - rate expectations. Interest rates may turn neutral from rising in the third quarter. A - shares have long - term attractiveness, and the yield curve should be steepened strategically after risks subside [9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Real Economic State: Tariff Easing Does Not Slow the Cycle - Short - term economic heat has rebounded. Production (+0.70) has improved month - on - month, and consumption (-0.02) has also significantly recovered (+0.37). However, forward - looking indicators and price - type indicators suggest that the macro - cycle has not improved significantly. With the Fed's cautious policy in the short - term, the constrained monetary liquidity (-0.44) is unlikely to change, and the macro - economy may return to adjustment after the short - term rebound [16]. Economic Growth: Short - term Inventory Replenishment Brings Resilience - Since mid - 2022, the global macro - cycle has been under pressure. As of May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI heat value is - 0.51 (-0.09), still in an "unfavorable" state. Except for Europe, the global macro - economic climate has slowed or declined to varying degrees [19][20]. Inflation: The Sound of Asset Price Bursting - The downward trend of macro - prices continues. Since August 2024, the global inflation heat value has been in a "cold" state. As of May 2025, it is - 0.47, up 0.11 percentage points month - on - month, and the risk of price adjustment remains. In June, there was a short - term rapid price increase, which may signal a cycle change [21][23]. Market Cycle Pricing: Focus on RMB Assets - The market's downward pricing remains unchanged. The real economic cycle has been more positive than expected since November 2024. As risk events land in 2025, the cycle bottoming process will accelerate. The short - term economic cycle, especially the overseas one, is downgraded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the third - quarter macro - demand decline on asset prices. High - interest - rate economies should focus on debt - fluctuation risks, while low - interest - rate economies should focus on the pressure of reduced real demand [26]. US Treasury Bond Liquidity: The US Cycle Continues to Be Pressured - The US debt - ceiling issue affects the US dollar. In 2025, the restart of the debt - ceiling issue increased the refinancing pressure of US Treasury bonds, and the market's macro - expectations of the US and Europe led to a decline in the US dollar index in the first half of the year. The resolution of the debt - ceiling issue is crucial for stabilizing US Treasury bond liquidity. The "Stablecoin Act" has limited short - term effects. The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating may speed up the resolution of the debt - ceiling issue. The focus in the second half of the year is on the increase of the debt ceiling and the change of the Fed's balance - sheet policy [30][38][40]. High Energy Prices: A Stress Test for Non - US Cycles - There is a divergence in the money - market liquidity between China and Europe. The ECB cut interest rates in June, and its balance sheet has been shrinking. The People's Bank of China cut interest rates and reserve - requirement ratios in May, and its balance sheet has been expanding. High energy prices may affect the European economy, while China focuses on balancing debt leverage and improving real - economy liquidity [50]. Macro Strategy: Bearish but Not Short - Selling, Rising After a Slow Start - Global macro - policies are turning. The market needs to re - balance inflation expectations and interest rates. The US dollar may turn to a safe - haven - driven rise in the second half of the year. Gold's rise is cautious, and US Treasury bond interest rates may turn neutral. A - shares have long - term attractiveness, and the yield curve should be steepened strategically after risks subside [64][65][66]. Overseas Macro: Policy Aims to Expand, but Pressure Looms - The Fed's monetary policy is on standby. The short - term easing of the tariff war has improved the US financial conditions, but fiscal uncertainties remain. The Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates due to potential price pressure and needs a "low" and "moderate" interest - rate level [67]. Domestic Macro: Waiting for the Release of External Pressure - China's short - term economic data is relatively stable, but private - sector demand is under pressure. With the reduction of external "non - interest - rate - cut" constraints, domestic macro - policies may expand in the third quarter. However, there is a risk of a further decline in macro - data in the second half of the year [69].

Core Points - The "Big Beautiful Plan" represents a significant fiscal expansion gamble by the U.S. government, aiming to stimulate economic growth through a combination of tax cuts, increased spending, welfare cuts, and borrowing [2][5] - The plan includes unprecedented tax cuts totaling $3.8 trillion over ten years, directly benefiting businesses and households, particularly targeting Trump's core supporters [5] - The plan also proposes a substantial increase in defense and border security spending, amounting to $144 billion over ten years, with $80 billion allocated specifically for combating illegal immigration [5] - Many social welfare programs are set to be cut, including Medicaid, student loan subsidies, and food stamps, reflecting a strategy to appeal to Republican supporters [5] - The plan raises the U.S. debt ceiling by $4 trillion, creating concerns about future fiscal deficits and potential economic instability [5][6] Financial Implications - Wall Street has expressed caution regarding the plan, with concerns that its risks outweigh potential benefits, estimating a total cost of $2.3 trillion against projected revenues of only $1.028 billion [8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley warn that the plan could lead to a significant depreciation of the dollar, threatening its status as the global reserve currency [8] Global Economic Impact - The plan is expected to resonate globally, as it coincides with simultaneous monetary and fiscal stimulus measures in Europe and China, potentially leading to a new round of economic recovery [9][10] - China's central bank is likely to adjust its monetary policy in response to the U.S. actions, focusing on stimulating domestic consumption and economic growth through fiscal measures [10] Conclusion - The "Big Beautiful Plan" is not merely an economic policy but a gamble that could significantly impact both the U.S. and global economies, ushering in a period of uncertainty and challenges [12]

Report Summary Key Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill was passed by the US House of Representatives, and President Trump will sign it on Saturday morning. The bill will cut medical and food safety net programs and cancel dozens of green energy incentives, increasing the US debt by $3.4 trillion to $36.2 trillion [1]. - On July 3, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 4.30%, with a change of 0.04% from the previous trading day, and the 10 - 2 - year spread was 0.47%, down 5 basis points from the previous trading day [3]. - For the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market on July 3, 2025, the gold trading volume was 31,568 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day, and the silver trading volume was 585,448 kg, up 12.30% from the previous trading day [7]. Market Data Futures Market - On July 3, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 779.02 yuan/gram and closed at 781.28 yuan/gram, up 0.68% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 189,582 lots, and the open interest was 175,461 lots. The night - session closed at 775.68 yuan/gram, down 0.40% from the afternoon close [2]. - On July 3, 2025, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 8,784 yuan/kg and closed at 8,944 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 427,766 lots, and the open interest was 272,055 lots. The night - session closed at 8,926 yuan/kg, up 0.67% from the afternoon close [2]. Position and Volume Changes - On the Au2502 contract on July 3, 2025, long positions changed by - 52 lots, and short positions changed by - 66 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 267,542 lots, down 11.96% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, long positions were 601 lots, and short positions increased by - 523 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 923,327 lots, down 47.09% from the previous trading day [4]. ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 947.966 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons, up 22.62 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Arbitrage Tracking - On July 3, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 0.14 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 733.00 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 87.35, down 1.54% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 91.57, with a change of - 0.93% from the previous trading day [6]. Strategies - **Gold**: Cautiously bullish. In the short - term, it is recommended to buy low and sell high between 740 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. In the medium - to - long - term, start to lightly build long - term positions from the 760 yuan/gram level [8]. - **Silver**: Cautiously bullish. Temporarily buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range recommended between 8,640 yuan/kg and 8,660 yuan/kg, and set the stop - loss at 8,620 yuan/kg [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - **Options**: Put on hold.

日本政府努力维稳市场效果显现，周四日本30年国债拍卖需求强劲，但全球对政府财政扩张的担忧持续，仍然推高了日本国债 收益率。 本周四，日本财政省进行了最新的30年期国债拍卖。表面看起来需求还不错，投标倍数达到3.58，是今年2月以来最高的水平， 也远高于6月拍卖时的2.92，过去12个月平均水平为3.33。 分析称，这个投标倍数说明，想买的资金数量是发行量的3.58倍，显示认购需求不差。相比5月那次惨淡的长债拍卖，这次结果 已经救场了不少。 但细看也有隐忧，中标的最低价格比市场预期要低，反映出一部分资金是保持谨慎的，部分买家为了弥补风险要求更高收益 率。 明治安田资产管理公司资深投资经理Shuichi Ohsaki评论称，这次拍卖有一定的需求，但也能看出市场相当谨慎。这次拍卖感觉 有点弱，但不太可能引发债市动荡。 全球赤字焦虑推高长期收益率 彭博策略师Mark Cranfield也认为，这次拍卖整体数据还算稳健，投标倍数提高到3.58是个亮点，但最低中标价格低于预期。真 正的考验还在二级市场，30年债收益率2.8%左右的收益率，相比年内高点3.2%并不特别有吸引力。同时，英国债市的波动也可 能再度引发全球主要经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Big and Beautiful" bill, which has passed procedural voting in the U.S. Senate, is expected to implement a significant portion of President Trump's policy agenda, potentially impacting the U.S. capital markets and global investors profoundly [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The bill is projected to increase the U.S. federal government's debt by approximately $3.8 trillion over the next decade, leading to a larger fiscal deficit and necessitating more government bond issuance [7]. - The increased fiscal deficit may weaken the international purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and could lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates, further affecting the dollar's exchange rate [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Morgan Stanley predicts that the bill's provisions may extend key tax cuts beneficial to individuals and corporations, but the rising U.S. deficit raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, leading to a bearish outlook on the dollar [7]. - The bill's fiscal stimulus and anticipated interest rate hikes are expected to benefit financial stocks, particularly banks, due to expanded loan spreads enhancing profitability [9]. - Key sectors such as industrials, communication services, and energy may benefit from tax provisions aimed at promoting growth, although rising deficits could lead to prolonged high interest rates, increasing borrowing costs and suppressing asset valuations [9]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Effects - The bill significantly reduces subsidies for clean energy sources like wind and solar, which could adversely affect renewable energy companies reliant on policy support [11]. - Adjustments to investment tax credits for energy storage facilities may provide marginal benefits to the U.S. large-scale storage industry, potentially benefiting domestic companies with strong U.S. market presence, such as Sungrow Power Supply, Canadian Solar, and CATL [11]. - The expansion of U.S. fiscal policy and private sector recovery is expected to drive global asset valuations upward, with the A-share market likely to rise amid a weak dollar trend and supportive policies [11].

风险提示：地缘局势变动，关税政策变动，美国经济超预期恶化。 期货（期权）研究报告 利空因素逐步消化，下半年谨慎看涨 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 行情回顾：上半年油价整体先跌后涨，由 Q1 的低波动阶段转入 Q2 的 高波动阶段。Q1 围绕的核心是特朗上台后政策预期和 OPEC+增产预 期，油价震荡下行；Q2 的特点是超预期，4 月份的关税及增产超预期， 导致油价大幅度下行，5 月份在关税谈判好于预期后震荡修复，6 月份 中东局势的超预期发展使得油价大幅上行，原油从低波动阶段转入高波 动阶段。 下半年行情展望：我们对下半年油价的观点是谨慎看涨。从宏观上看， 美国短期经济虽有压力，但底部有美联储降息支撑，而减税法案带来的 新一轮财政扩张可能支撑经济中长期向好；从基本面上看，下半年供需 存在过剩压力，Q4 压力大于 Q3，但供应端的利空已被逐步计价，偏低 的油价反过来会抑制 OPEC+及页岩油厂商的增产意愿，美国原油库存 处于近五年低位的情况下，油价向上弹性较高。因此整体来看，我们认 为下半年油市处于一个利空因素被逐步消化的过程，同时考虑到 OPEC+增产周期下的过剩 ...