Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations and aimed at supporting consumer and business confidence amid a slower economic recovery [2][4][5]. Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut the OCR was made after a discussion between maintaining the rate at 2.5% and lowering it to 2.25%, with a vote of 5 to 1 in favor of the reduction [4]. - The committee believes that lowering the OCR will help bolster consumer and business confidence and mitigate risks associated with a slower economic recovery [5]. Economic Indicators - The annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 3% in the September quarter, reaching the upper limit of the central bank's target range of 1% to 3% [7]. - The OCR's significant reduction since August 2024 is expected to support economic activity recovery, with inflation projected to return to around 2% by mid-2026 [8]. - The committee noted improvements in short-term economic activity indicators, suggesting a moderate GDP growth in the September quarter [8]. Leadership Transition - The recent monetary policy meeting was the last chaired by acting chair Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Blayman set to officially take over as the new chair [11]. - Blayman is perceived as a dovish member from her time at the Swedish central bank, which may signal a tendency towards more accommodative policies in the future [11]. Labor Market and Demographics - New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to 5.3%, the highest since Q4 2016, reflecting weak economic conditions and reduced hiring demand [12]. - There is a notable outflow of young people from New Zealand, with approximately 73,000 citizens expected to leave between September 2024 and September 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [12].

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-26 美10月联邦预算赤字高企 贵金属价格走强 市场分析 通胀数据方面，美国9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，均较前值明显加速，显示美国通胀在9月重新 升温。同时，美国9月零售销售环比增长0.2%，连续四个月正增长但显著放缓，且低于市场预期，汽车销售四个月 来首次下滑。财政数据方面，美国财政部表示，受近期联邦政府"停摆"影响，10月份联邦政府预算赤字高达2840 亿美元；财政端压力进一步凸显。一位财政部官员表示，由于许多联邦机构"停摆"43天，导致部分款项（例如政 府雇员的工资）的支付延迟，2026财年第一个月的预算结果被推迟发布。美联储方面，美联储主席选拔进入最后 阶段，美国财政部长贝森特称，总统特朗普预计将在圣诞假期前决定下一任美联储主席人选。此外，美联储理事 米兰发表最新讲话称，当前货币政策阻碍了经济发展，美国经济需要大幅降息。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-25，沪金主力合约开于935.60元/克，收于946.50元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.74%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于942.56元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic fundamental data is weak. The central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, and market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which has a certain support for the prices of Treasury bond futures. The current main contract has shifted to the March 26th contract, and it is recommended to plan for the contract shift [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. The T2603 contract fell by 0.11%, and the open interest increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2]. | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Inter - period Spread | Inter - period Spread Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2603 | 102.422 | 102.418 | 0.004 | 0.00% | 61793 | 33194 | 4247 | - 0.048 | - 0.054 | | TS2606 | 102.470 | 102.472 | - 0.002 | 0.00% | 2226 | 288 | 69 | | | | TF2603 | 105.980 | 105.995 | - 0.015 | - 0.01% | 129492 | 82221 | 14505 | 0.020 | 0.015 | | TF2606 | 105.960 | 105.980 | - 0.020 | - 0.02% | 3177 | 1872 | 806 | | | | T2603 | 108.220 | 108.335 | - 0.115 | - 0.11% | 234165 | 115185 | 24142 | - 0.055 | 0.005 | | T2606 | 108.275 | 108.330 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | 6562 | 3430 | 977 | | | | TL2603 | 115.16 | 115.58 | - 0.420 | - 0.36% | 135646 | 123788 | 16728 | - 0.150 | - 0.050 | | TL2606 | 115.31 | 115.63 | - 0.320 | - 0.28% | 11304 | 6154 | 2138 | | | Spot Market - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 1.4bp, the DR007 rate dropped 3.28bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 2bp. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.96bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.12bp [2]. | Key - term Treasury Bonds | Yesterday's Yield | Previous Day's Yield | Change (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6M | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0.1 | | 1Y | 1.41 | 1.40 | 0.24 | | 2Y | 1.43 | 1.43 | - 0.25 | | 5Y | 1.60 | 1.59 | 0.5 | | 7Y | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.03 | | 10Y | 1.83 | 1.82 | 0.96 | | 20Y | 2.18 | 2.16 | 1.7 | | 30Y | 2.17 | 2.16 | 1.35 | | Yield Spread (bp) (10 - 2) | 30.12 | 29.33 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (10 - 5) | 27.92 | 26.64 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (5 - 2) | 2.20 | 2.69 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (30 - 10) | 34.23 | 33.84 | | Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield dropped 3bp, the 10 - year German Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10 - year Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 1.9bp [2]. | Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds | Yesterday's Yield | Previous Day's Yield | Change (bp) | Internal - External Yield Spread (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US 2Y | 3.43 | 3.46 | - 3.0 | - 200.2 | | US 5Y | 3.55 | 3.61 | - 6.0 | - 195.2 | | US 10Y | 4.01 | 4.04 | - 3.0 | - 218.1 | | US 30Y | 4.67 | 4.68 | - 1.0 | - 249.9 | | German 2Y | 2.000 | 1.990 | 1.0 | - 57.2 | | German 10Y | 2.770 | 2.770 | 0.0 | - 94.1 | | Japanese 2Y | 0.975 | 0.959 | 1.6 | 45.3 | | Japanese 10Y | 1.811 | 1.792 | 1.9 | 1.8 | Macro - news and Industry Information - The central bank increased open - market operations, with a net daily withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan and a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net monthly investment of 100 billion yuan, which was the 9th consecutive month of increased roll - over. Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined, and the market capital was loose. The US September PPI increased 0.3% month - on - month due to rising energy costs, and the core PPI growth rate of 0.1% was lower than expected. Many Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields continued to fall. In October, household and corporate deposits continued to flow to the non - bank sector with higher returns. Industrial production and consumption growth rates slowed down year - on - year, and the investment decline widened, mainly due to the real - estate drag. The decline in commercial - housing sales widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to fall month - on - month and were still in the adjustment process [3]. - From January to October, China's full - sector foreign direct investment was $144.34 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; the newly - signed contract value of foreign - contracted projects was $210.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. Local government special bonds are in a peak period of issuance for government investment funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan of special bonds on November 28th, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. The total scale of local government special bonds invested in government investment funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [3]. - US President Trump said that his team had made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the 28 - point peace plan initially drafted by the US had been refined, with only a few differences remaining. Trump instructed envoy Steve Witkoff to go to Moscow to consult with Russian President Putin. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the Ukrainian side expected President Zelensky to visit the US as soon as possible in November to complete the final steps and reach an agreement with US President Trump [3]. - In the money market, most interest rates showed mixed trends. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank deposit market for the 1 - day variety decreased by 0.07BP to 1.318%, the 7 - day variety decreased by 1.62BP to 1.4541%, and the 14 - day variety decreased by 1.11BP to 1.5317%. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank lending in the inter - bank deposit market for the 1 - day variety increased by 0.04BP to 1.3386%, the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.21BP to 1.4922%, the 14 - day variety increased by 3.35BP to 1.5503%, and the 1 - month variety decreased by 9.6BP to 1.504%. US Treasury bond yields fell across the board. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield fell 3.62 basis points to 3.459%, the 3 - year yield fell 2.23 basis points to 3.452%, the 5 - year yield fell 2.79 basis points to 3.564%, the 10 - year yield fell 3.07 basis points to 3.996%, and the 30 - year yield fell 2.05 basis points to 4.650% [3].

Core Points - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations [1][3] - The decision was made after a discussion between maintaining the OCR at 2.5% and reducing it to 2.25%, with a 5:1 vote in favor of the latter [3] - The RBNZ aims to support consumer and business confidence and mitigate risks associated with slower economic recovery compared to inflation targets [3][5] Economic Indicators - The annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 3% in the September quarter, reaching the upper limit of the RBNZ's target range of 1% to 3% [4][5] - The RBNZ anticipates that inflation will decline to around 2% by mid-2026, despite current pressures from high gasoline and food prices [5] - The unemployment rate in New Zealand increased to 5.3%, the highest level since Q4 2016, reflecting weak economic conditions [8] Leadership Transition - The recent monetary policy meeting was the last chaired by Acting Governor Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Blighman set to take over as the new RBNZ Governor [8] - Blighman is perceived as a dovish member from her time at the Swedish central bank, which may signal a future inclination towards more accommodative policies [8] Demographic Trends - New Zealand is experiencing a significant outflow of young people, with approximately 73,000 citizens expected to leave for Australia between September 2024 and September 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [9]

来源：金融界AI电报 斯里兰卡央行：理事会认为，当前的货币政策立场将有助于引导通胀朝着5%的目标水平发展。预计通 胀率的上升速度将比此前预测的更为缓慢，并在2026年下半年趋近目标水平。预计核心通胀将以温和的 速度加速上升。中期通胀预期仍围绕通胀目标保持稳定。随着外汇流动性改善，卢比贬值压力得到缓 解。斯里兰卡法定准备金率设定为2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered the official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, aligning with market expectations and aiming to support consumer and business confidence amid a slower economic recovery [1][3]. Monetary Policy Decision - The decision to cut the OCR was made after a discussion between maintaining the rate at 2.5% and lowering it to 2.25%, with a 5:1 vote in favor of the latter [3]. - The committee noted that the reduction in OCR is intended to bolster confidence and counteract the slower-than-expected economic recovery [3]. Economic Indicators - The annual consumer price inflation rate rose to 3% in the September quarter, reaching the upper limit of the monetary policy target range of 1% to 3% [3]. - The committee anticipates that inflation will decline to around 2% by mid-2026, despite current pressures from high gasoline and food prices [3]. - Economic activity indicators have shown improvement since the June quarter, suggesting a moderate GDP growth for the September quarter [4]. Labor Market and Migration - There are initial signs of stabilization in labor demand, with increases in job vacancies and total hours worked [4]. - New Zealand is experiencing a significant outflow of young people, with nearly 73,000 citizens expected to leave for Australia between September 2024 and September 2025, marking an 8% increase year-on-year [8]. Leadership Transition - The recent monetary policy meeting was the last chaired by acting chair Christian Hawkesby, with Anna Blayman set to take over, who is perceived as a dovish member from her time at the Swedish central bank [7]. - Market expectations regarding Blayman's future policy stance are mixed, with some analysts predicting a potential shift towards a "neutral to hawkish" approach [7].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡整理。近期央行公开市场操作灵活，保持流动性合理充裕。由于年内 政策面加码的必要性不强，预计年内保持 7 日逆回购利率 1.4 ...

Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a one-year term, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan for the month, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [2] - The combined net injection from MLF and reverse repos in November reached 600 billion yuan, maintaining liquidity levels consistent with the previous month [2] - The central bank's monetary policy has become more precise and balanced, with cautious use of traditional tools, indicating a potential for rate cuts or reserve requirement ratio reductions by year-end [3] Personal Pension Funds - As of November 23, 2025, 97% of personal pension funds have achieved positive returns, with 296 out of 305 Y-share funds yielding positive results since inception [4] - The performance of index-type Y-share funds has significantly outperformed, with 13 funds exceeding a 30% return and four funds surpassing 40% [4] - Despite the overall positive performance, there remains a gap between the actual performance of personal pension funds and investor expectations, particularly in terms of stability versus profitability [5][6] Charging Battery Regulations - New safety standards for mobile power banks are expected to be published in December 2023, with implementation set for June 2026, leading to the invalidation of existing 3C certifications [7] - Compliance with the new standards is projected to increase manufacturing costs by approximately 30%, impacting the profitability of charging battery manufacturers [7][8] AI Industry Developments - Alphabet's market capitalization is nearing $4 trillion, driven by advancements in AI technologies, including the Gemini 3 model and new TPU developments, with a stock price increase of nearly 69% this year [9] - OpenAI has launched a free AI shopping search feature, enhancing its commercial capabilities and aiming to drive incremental sales for e-commerce platforms [11][12] - Nvidia has issued a detailed memo refuting allegations of financial misrepresentation, emphasizing its adherence to strict payment terms and clarifying its investment strategies amid scrutiny from short-sellers [13][14] Oil Market Outlook - JPMorgan forecasts that Brent crude oil prices may average between $57 and $58 per barrel in 2026 and 2027, with potential declines to around $30 per barrel unless production cuts are implemented [15][16] - The global oil supply is expected to outpace demand growth significantly in the coming years, contributing to a bearish outlook for oil prices [15][16]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for over 5 years, unchanged for six months since a 10 basis points cut in May [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to strong macroeconomic performance driven by unexpected export growth and rapid development in new productivity sectors, leading to reduced demand for counter-cyclical adjustments [1][2] - The average weighted interest rate for new corporate loans in October was 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, down about 8 basis points year-on-year [2] Group 2 - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain relatively loose social financing conditions, adapting to changes in the economic and financial landscape [2][3] - The central bank plans to deepen interest rate marketization reforms to enhance the quality of LPR quotes, ensuring they accurately reflect market rates and encouraging financial institutions to adhere to risk pricing principles [3] - The monetary policy will focus on achieving stable growth while optimizing the structure, with expectations for more proactive measures to support economic recovery in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year [3]

美联储理事米兰（Stephen Miran）呼吁大幅降低利率以支持美国劳动力市场，他认为当前货币政策过于 紧缩，正在推高失业率。 米兰主张通过一系列50个基点的降息，尽快将利率降至中性水平。他明确指出失业率攀升是货币政策过 紧的直接结果。 不过米兰也承认，随着降息进程的推进，快速行动的必要性将会降低。他对2026年经济前景表达了相对 乐观的态度，并强调几乎所有的通胀超标都是"幻觉"，主要源于住房市场的供需失衡和货币政策的滞 后效应。 金融市场目前预计美联储将在12月9日至10日的会议上降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间从目前 的3.75%至4%进一步下调。 劳动力市场疲软成降息主要理由 米兰将失业率上升直接归因于过紧的货币政策。他表示： 我们必须认识到失业率一直在上升，这是货币政策过于紧缩的结果。 最新数据显示，9月份失业率从8月的4.3%升至4.4%。 他警告称，如果美联储不继续以相当快的速度降息，货币政策将"扼杀所有积极发展的萌芽"，劳动力市 场将无法实现应有的复苏。Miran强调： 我们将成为失业率持续上升的源头，这并非好事。 他指出，近期的就业数据应该促使更多委员会成员认同继续降息的必要性。 周二 ...