Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures increased by over 0.8%, currently priced at $65.65 [1] - Following President Trump's order for military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, G7 foreign ministers urged Iran to resume cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) [1]

巴西国家石油局：巴西5月原油产量达到367.9万桶/日，同比增长10.9%。 ...

Key Points - The article highlights important financial data and events to be monitored on July 2, 2025, including U.S. API crude oil inventory and Eurozone unemployment rate [1] - It lists specific times for the release of various economic indicators, such as U.S. Challenger job cuts and ADP employment figures [1] - The article emphasizes the significance of EIA crude oil inventory data, including Cushing and strategic petroleum reserve inventories, which are crucial for understanding market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects ongoing volatility in international oil markets, with expectations of a potential decrease in the next pricing cycle due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][6]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of July 1, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, marking the sixth price increase of the year and the first consecutive three increases [2][3]. - The average reference price for crude oil was reported at 70.61 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 4.74% [2]. - Following the latest adjustment, the retail prices for 92-octane gasoline will range between 7.5 and 7.6 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will be between 7.1 and 7.3 yuan per liter [2]. Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 9 yuan more, while logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons will see an increase of about 7.6 yuan per 100 kilometers driven [3]. - Consumers using a small car with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers will incur an additional cost of 13 yuan before the next price adjustment [3]. International Oil Price Trends - The recent pricing cycle experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with oil prices initially rising due to concerns over supply disruptions, followed by a sharp decline after a ceasefire agreement [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that while the geopolitical situation has stabilized, uncertainties remain, and the market is cautious about making bold predictions [4]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of a price decrease in the next adjustment cycle, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 290 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [6]. - The upcoming pricing window is expected to open on July 15, 2025, with market conditions indicating a likely negative change rate at the start of the new cycle [6]. Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting towards OPEC+ and their potential production increases, which could influence future oil supply and demand dynamics [5]. - The performance of major Chinese oil companies, referred to as the "three barrels of oil," has been closely tied to international oil price movements, with recent stock fluctuations reflecting geopolitical developments [7].

Group 1 - Saudi Arabia is exporting crude oil at the fastest rate in over a year, with an increase of 441,000 barrels per day (approximately 7%) to 6.36 million barrels per day, reflecting its strategic determination to regain market share in the global oil market [1] - The surge in exports coincides with OPEC+'s accelerated crude oil production plans, benefiting consumers despite regional shipping disruptions due to the Israel-Iran conflict [4] - The increase in exports is notable as it occurs during the summer season when domestic demand for oil typically rises, suggesting that Saudi Arabia may release a larger proportion of oil supply after summer [4] Group 2 - In June, Saudi Arabia exported approximately 190 million barrels of crude oil through its Gulf and Red Sea ports, responding to U.S. President Trump's calls for lower oil prices [4] - The current temperature in Riyadh has exceeded 40 degrees Celsius, leading to a significant increase in domestic oil demand for power generation and desalination, yet Saudi Arabia still achieved substantial export growth [5] - OPEC+ has approved a total production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for May to July, which is three times the original plan, with Saudi Arabia allowed to increase production by 167,000 barrels per day each month [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that domestic refined oil prices are set to increase for the third time, effective from July 1 at 24:00, due to fluctuations in international oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][3] - According to Zhaochuang Information, the reference crude oil change rate is currently at 5.41%, leading to an expected increase in retail prices of gasoline and diesel by 235 and 225 yuan per ton respectively, which translates to an increase of 0.18, 0.19, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline, and 0 diesel [1][3] - The increase in fuel costs for consumers is illustrated with examples: filling a 50L tank of 92 gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan, while a small private car with a monthly mileage of 2000 km will see an increase of approximately 13 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment window on July 15 [3] Group 2 - The logistics industry will experience a significant impact, with a heavy-duty truck running 10,000 km per month and consuming 38L per 100 km facing an increase of around 337 yuan in fuel costs before the next price adjustment [3] - Despite the recent easing of geopolitical tensions leading to a drop in international oil prices, the upcoming summer demand peak in the U.S. is expected to provide support for oil prices, indicating a potential for continued volatility in the market [3] - The new pricing cycle may present a downward adjustment expectation for domestic refined oil prices, with the next adjustment window scheduled for July 15 at 24:00 [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-01 中国液体化工低库存，美国石油 低库存，能化延续震荡 国际原油期货延续震荡整理态势，美国又在积极促成俄乌之间的谈 判。从原油基本面情况看，当前全球整体库存逐步攀升，欧美经济体尤其 是美国石油库存却压力较小。美国原油商业库存、库欣库存和柴油库存均 位于五年同期最低，作为全球最大的原油消费国，美国的低库存将对油价 形成支撑，国内化工亦有支撑。 板块逻辑： 化工品中整体仍是震荡态势。我们关注到液体化工的库存近期有分 化。纯苯和苯乙烯的华东港口库存周度攀升，且已经升至五年同期最高； 另一方面乙二醇的港口库存持续下滑，将至五年同期最低。高库存说明供 给压力在与日俱增，极低的乙二醇库存则说明一旦有装置扰动，期价就可 能有较强的向上动力。聚酯链中的PX和TA也延续强基差格局，低库存和高 基差品种表现将强于其他品种。 原油：延续震荡整理，美国月报显示该国产量创纪录 LPG：基本面宽松，但市场仍对地缘风险担忧，PG盘面或震荡 沥青：欧佩克+增产或超预期，沥青高估值等待回落 高硫燃油：欧佩克+增产或超预期，高硫燃油重回弱势 低硫燃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis indicates that the asphalt market in the second half of the year will experience limited supply growth, with refinery production depending on profit margins and downstream demand [1] Supply Analysis - Limited capacity release is expected in the second half, with refinery production influenced by production profits and downstream demand [1] - High dilution asphalt discounts are likely to have a limited impact on independent refinery restarts [1] - Adjustments in fuel oil and dilution asphalt consumption tax refund policies may boost refinery processing profits and operational levels [1] - Maintenance plans for some petrochemical plants in Shandong during July and August will limit asphalt supply increases [1] - Southern petrochemical asphalt production is expected to decrease, alleviating supply surplus pressures [1] - Asphalt inventories at refineries and social storage are at near five-year lows, with significant inventory reductions and strong price support from manufacturers [1] Demand Analysis - The issuance of new local government special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second half, although debt repayment and other projects may squeeze construction funding [1] - Export pressures may increase, while infrastructure investment could ramp up, but actual workload may remain low [1] - The rainy season moving north in the south will gradually restore domestic asphalt demand [1] - Demand was weak in June and July in South China and the Yangtze River Delta, but increased project construction in the north supports demand [1] - From August to October, demand is expected to increase due to project acceleration, with some highway projects entering the paving stage [1] Cost Analysis - The crude oil market experienced high volatility in the first half due to tariff policies and geopolitical conflicts [1] - OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production in the third quarter, with stable output in the fourth quarter, although export growth may lag behind production increases in the next 2-3 months [1] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. has decreased, with supply growth in the second half relying on non-OPEC+ and non-U.S. countries [1] - The summer demand peak in overseas markets is anticipated to boost transportation fuel demand in Europe and the U.S. in the third quarter [1] - EIA and IEA predict an oversupply in the crude oil market in the third and fourth quarters, with inventory accumulation pressures persisting [1] - Tight supply-demand conditions in the third quarter may support a rebound in oil prices to $70 per barrel, while the price center may shift down to $55 per barrel in the fourth quarter [1] Strategic Insights - The first half of the year saw an oversupply of asphalt in South China, leading to lower prices and a shift in pricing center due to low-cost resources moving north [1] - The second half is expected to see some supply growth, contingent on processing profits, with increased demand during peak seasons, although overall demand for the year remains weak [1] - The valuation in the first half was considered high, with recommendations to short the crack spread at high prices and to monitor changes in South China warehouse receipts [1]

Core Insights - The benzene and styrene industry is expected to face a specific landscape in the second half of 2025, with a loose supply of benzene and several new production lines coming online [1] - Domestic maintenance peaks have passed, and local supply remains stable, while imports are projected to remain high at 45-50 [1] - Downstream demand for caprolactam and aniline is struggling to rebound, leading to limited growth in non-styrene downstream demand [1] Benzene Market Analysis - The benzene market is characterized by a loose supply situation, with domestic production and imports expected to meet demand [1] - Inventory levels are anticipated to increase slightly, with a phase of inventory destocking expected [1] - The overall valuation of benzene is likely to remain under pressure due to high imports and weak downstream demand [1] Styrene Market Analysis - The styrene market is facing limited positive fundamentals, with weakening demand support from the home appliance sector in the second half of the year [1] - The profitability of the styrene industry is expected to decline, leading to potential reductions in production capacity [1] - Styrene's demand is increasingly reliant on benzene, enhancing its bargaining power within the industry chain [1] Price Dynamics - The price spread between styrene and benzene may experience a slight decline in the second half of the year but is expected to remain at a medium to high level [1] - The high inventory levels in the styrene market may lead to both styrene and benzene accumulating inventory [1] Oil Price Impact - Uncertainty in the market is largely influenced by crude oil prices, with a downward trend expected in the long term [1] - Recent geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases falling short of expectations have led to rising oil prices, which could shift market dynamics [1] - If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may trigger a replenishment of inventory, affecting the price spread between styrene and benzene [1] Strategic Recommendations - Assuming a high probability of declining crude oil prices, the strategy suggests shorting styrene and taking advantage of the styrene-benzene price spread during dips [1]

原油日报 | 2025-07-01 欧佩克考虑继续增加生产配额 市场要闻与重要数据 1、纽约商品交易所8月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌41美分，收于每桶65.11美元，跌幅为0.63%；8月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌16美分，收于每桶67.61美元，跌幅为0.24%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.30%，报498元/桶。 2、路透社数据显示，哈萨克斯坦今年的石油产量可能比预期高出2%，达到每日200万桶，原因是大型油田的产量 预计将增加。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、美国能源信息署（EIA）数据显示，得克萨斯州4月份原油产量升至577万桶/日，为自去年11月以来最高水平。 （来源：Bloomberg） 4、欧佩克+将在七月会议上考虑延长其大规模增产，因领导者沙特正带头努力夺回市场份额。欧佩克+八个主要国 家已同意在过去三个月中每天大幅增产41.1万桶。八个成员国在7月6日开会时，欧佩克+可能会在8月再次将石油日 产量提高41.1万桶。欧佩克+领导国俄罗斯的态度也发生了值得注意的转变，在上次会议上，俄罗斯曾短暂反对7 月再次加速增产。但近期消息显示，如果欧佩克+认为有必要，莫斯科现在可能更愿意接受新的增产措 ...