Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand remains weak, putting pressure on the overall fundamentals of iron ore. It is predicted that iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. In the entire sector, coking coal and coke are relatively weaker, and an arbitrage strategy of shorting coking coal and coke and going long on iron ore can be considered [10][11]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - On December 16, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures oscillated upward, opening with an upward trend, oscillating in the afternoon, and closing at 761.0 yuan/ton, up 1.06% [7]. - The table shows the prices, trading volumes, and open interest of steel and iron ore futures main contracts on December 16, including RB2605, HC2605, SS2602, and I2605 [5]. - Another table presents the open interest of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on December 16, covering RB2605, HC2605, SS2602, J2601, JM2605, and I2605 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On December 16, the main iron ore overseas quotes rose by 1 US dollar/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 1 - 3 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - Technical Analysis: For the iron ore 2605 contract, the daily KDJ indicator shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The daily MACD indicator's green bar is narrowing [9]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Supply: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil significantly increased, and the arrivals also rose. As the end of the year approaches, overseas mines may increase their shipments to meet their targets [10]. - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products reached a new low since late February, with the output of construction steel dropping most significantly. The average daily hot - metal output has declined for four consecutive weeks and is now below 2.3 million tons. Although steel mill profits have recovered, due to the seasonal weakness of terminal demand, the enthusiasm for steel mills to resume production is still low, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak [10][11]. - Inventory: Steel mills are restocking as needed. The inventory available days have increased by 1 day to 20 days compared to last week. Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching 154 million tons, a new high since April 2022, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly [11]. 3.4 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission's Party Group pointed out in an article in Qiushi magazine that efforts should be made to stabilize bulk consumption, implement the policy of replacing old consumer goods with new ones, and carry out key projects in consumption - supporting facilities such as elderly care, childcare, health, and cultural tourism. It also mentioned measures to regulate market competition and remove unreasonable consumption restrictions [12]. - The Hainan Provincial People's Government announced that Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start the whole - island customs closure on December 18 [12]. 3.5 Data Overview The report provides multiple charts showing various data related to the iron ore and steel industry, including prices, shipments, arrivals, production, inventory, and utilization rates, with data sources from MySteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][22][23] etc.

今 日 早 评 【短评-白银】美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国11月非 农就业人口增加6.4万人，高于市场预期的5万人，但失业率却 意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。另外，10月非农就 业大幅减少10.5万人，远超预期的下降2.5万人，8月和9月也合 计下修3.3万人。评：美国就业数据整体偏弱，支持明年降息， 但是不一定在1月份降息，整体来看，降息周期对白银依然偏多 支撑。关注是否出现逼空行情。 投资咨询中心 2025年12月17日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】全国重质纯碱主流价1257元/吨，近期价格 偏弱；纯碱周度产量73.54万吨，环比+4.48%；纯碱厂家总库存 149.43万吨，周下降2.88%；浮法玻璃开工率73.84%，周度- 0.89个百分点；全国浮法玻璃均价1090元/吨，环比上日持平； 全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5822.7万重箱，环比下降2.04%。 评：浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存下降，华东市场区域窄幅整理操 作，原片企业多稳价出货为主 ...

Market Overview - On December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.11% to 3824.81 points, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.1% to 3071.76 points [1] - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones decreased by 0.62% to 48114.26 points, and the S&P 500 fell by 0.24% to 6800.26 points, whereas the Nasdaq rose by 0.23% to 23111.46 points [1] Economic Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated that the global economy is expected to maintain moderate growth, but uncertainties remain. Domestic challenges persist, yet the long-term positive trends and advantages of the Chinese economy are unchanged [2] - The advantages highlighted include the socialist system, large market size, complete industrial system, and rich talent resources, which are expected to become more prominent [2] - Active flows of factors and innovation are anticipated to inject new momentum into development, with investment and consumption growth expected to recover next year [2] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new regulations for platform economy, including the "Live E-commerce Supervision Management Measures" and "Network Trading Platform Rules Supervision Management Measures" [3] - The China Securities Association has established a mechanism for collecting complaints regarding unfair competition among information technology service providers in the securities industry [3] IPO and Market Activity - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has welcomed over 100 new listings since 2025, raising more than 270 billion HKD, with over 300 listing applications currently being processed for 2026 [4] - Nasdaq plans to extend trading hours to 23 hours per week, marking a step towards all-day trading [6] Corporate Governance - Douyin Group has introduced a trial "Community Finance Industry Convention" aimed at regulating financial content creators and ensuring professional qualifications [5] - 360 Group has issued a statement addressing malicious defamation against its founder, asserting compliance with legal and regulatory standards [8]

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 12 月 16 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1353 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1353 亿元，中标量 1353 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 1173 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 180 亿元 。 2. 资金面 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 虽然适逢月度税期时点，银行间市场周二整体流动性依然偏松，存款类机构隔夜回购加权利率（ DR001 ）进一步下行至 1.27% 附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 3.67% （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近，较上日小幅上行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率 （*数据来源：Wind-利差分析） 6. 国债期货收盘 30 年期主力合约跌 0.19% 10 年期主力合约涨 0.05% 5 年期主力合约涨 0.03% 2 年期主力合约跌 0.02% （*数据来源：Wind-国债期货） | ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic News - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to enhance residents' consumption willingness and capacity, and to actively expand effective investment space [1] - The commission plans to focus on releasing residents' consumption potential and implementing special actions to boost consumption [1] - There will be efforts to stabilize major consumption and implement policies for replacing old consumer goods [1] Group 2: Financial Risk Management - The Shenzhen Municipal Financial Office emphasizes the need to effectively prevent and resolve various financial risks, controlling new risks and managing existing ones [2] - The approach includes tailored strategies for each enterprise and accelerating the resolution of financial risks related to key real estate companies [2] - There will be a crackdown on illegal financial activities and enhanced inter-departmental collaboration for risk identification and rapid response [2] Group 3: Currency Exchange Rates - The offshore RMB against the US dollar reached a new high since October 2024, peaking at 7.04 [5] - The onshore RMB also hit a maximum of 7.04 against the US dollar, marking a new high since October 2024 [5] Group 4: Economic Projections - A prediction states that it is entirely possible for China's per capita GDP to reach $23,000 by 2035, requiring an average annual growth rate of 5% over the next 11 years [6] - The current economic conditions suggest that the growth rate needed may be higher than 5% due to a decline in total population [6] - The forecast does not consider exchange rate fluctuations or significant inflation issues in the coming years [6] Group 5: Market Policy Outlook - There is an expectation for more policies to be introduced to support the construction of a large domestic market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the need to boost domestic consumption and enhance residents' consumption capacity through various strategic initiatives [1] Group 1: Enhancing Consumption Willingness - The government plans to implement special actions to stimulate consumption and stabilize major consumer goods [1] - Policies will include trade-in programs for consumer goods and the promotion of new consumption scenarios through brand leadership, standard upgrades, and new technology applications [1] - Support will be provided for emerging economic sectors such as the first-release economy, event economy, and e-commerce [1] - Key projects will be launched in areas like elderly care, childcare, health, and cultural tourism to meet the demands of consumption upgrades and population aging [1] Group 2: Strengthening Consumption Capacity - Employment policies will be prioritized to stabilize and expand job opportunities, with a focus on optimizing the entrepreneurial environment [1] - A plan to increase residents' income share in national income distribution and improve labor remuneration in the initial distribution is outlined [1] - The government will enhance inclusive policies aimed directly at consumers and increase funding for social welfare expenditures [1] - Efforts will be made to promote equal access to basic public services and support for childbirth and parenting [1]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 螺纹热卷日报 1/ 10 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3250 元（+10），北京敬业 3120 元（-），上海鞍钢热 卷 3270 元（+30），天津河钢热卷 3180 元（+10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢价整体维持震荡偏强走势，煤焦依然领涨。钢材现货成交一般，上午低价 成交较好，基差收缩。上周钢联数据公布，五大材继续减产，但减产速度有所放缓， 其中螺纹减产速度更快，而热轧由于利润上升出现增产铁水产量延续下滑；钢材总库 存继续下滑，社库去库而厂库有所累积；受季节性影响，钢材表观需求加速去化，其 中螺纹需求降幅大于热卷，冷轧需求受制造业支撑仍然上涨。预计本周铁水产量继续 下滑，但高炉利润有所修复，后续主动减产驱动有限；12 月煤矿受环保因素影响供应 可能再度收缩，钢厂也存在补库预期，pb ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analyses, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on December 16, 2025, and gives resistance and support levels for each contract. Some futures like platinum, palladium, and polysilicon are expected to reach new highs [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 16, 2025, stock index futures are likely to oscillate weakly. For example, IF2512 has a resistance at 4575 and 4600 points and a support at 4511 and 4500 points. In December 2025, IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are expected to oscillate strongly in a wide range [2][19]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On December 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract T2603 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 107.75 and 107.61 yuan. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 111.1 and 110.4 yuan [2][39][42]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: - **Gold**: On December 16, 2025, the gold futures main contract AU2602 is likely to oscillate weakly and test the support at 970.6 and 963.3 yuan/gram. In December 2025, it is expected to oscillate strongly in a wide range [45]. - **Silver**: On December 16, 2025, the silver futures main contract AG2602 is likely to oscillate strongly and attack the resistance at 15200 and 15600 yuan/kilogram. In December 2025, it is expected to reach a new high [53][54]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: On December 16, 2025, platinum and palladium futures main contracts PT2606 and PD2606 are likely to oscillate strongly and reach new highs [3][59][60]. - **Base Metal Futures**: - **Copper**: On December 16, 2025, the copper futures main contract CU2602 is likely to oscillate in a wide range. In December 2025, it is expected to reach a new high [63]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: On December 16, 2025, the aluminum futures main contract AL2602 is likely to oscillate weakly, while the alumina futures main contract AO2601 is also likely to oscillate weakly. In December 2025, the aluminum continuous contract is expected to oscillate strongly, and the alumina continuous contract is expected to reach a new low [70][71][75]. - **Nickel and Tin**: On December 16, 2025, nickel and tin futures main contracts NI2601 and SN2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. In December 2025, the nickel continuous contract is expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range, and the tin continuous contract is expected to oscillate strongly [79][82]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: - **Polysilicon and Lithium Carbonate**: On December 16, 2025, polysilicon and lithium carbonate futures main contracts PS2605 and LC2605 are likely to oscillate strongly in a wide range. The polysilicon contract is expected to reach a new high [88][89][90]. - **Steel - related Futures**: On December 16, 2025, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures main contracts RB2605, HC2605, I2605, JM2605, FG605, and SA605 are expected to have different trends. For instance, rebar and hot - rolled coil are likely to oscillate in a wide range, iron ore is likely to oscillate strongly, and the rest are likely to have weak or wide - range oscillations [4][6][95][98]. - **Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Methanol**: On December 16, 2025, crude oil, fuel oil, PTA, and methanol futures main contracts SC2602, FU2603, TA605, and MA605 are likely to oscillate weakly [6][120][124][126]. - **Agricultural Futures**: - **Soybean Meal and Palm Oil**: On December 16, 2025, soybean meal and palm oil futures main contracts M2605 and P2605 are likely to oscillate weakly [7][131][133]. Macro - information and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: - The article "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" by General Secretary Xi Jinping is published in Qiushi Journal, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand [8]. - China's economic data for November shows that industrial added - value, service production index, and retail sales have different growth rates, while fixed - asset investment and real - estate development investment decline [8]. - The housing price data of 70 cities in November shows that the second - hand housing prices decline, and the new - housing prices have different trends in different - tier cities [9]. - Six departments issue a plan to promote the high - quality development of service outsourcing [9]. - The National Energy Work Conference deploys key tasks for 2026, including increasing wind and solar power generation capacity [9]. - The State Council Food Safety Office deploys food safety work during festivals and important meetings [9]. - **International News**: - European leaders plan to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [10]. - There is resistance to the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the new Fed Chairman [10]. - Fed officials express their views on the economy, inflation, and unemployment rate [10]. - International commodity futures have different price trends, such as platinum and palladium rising, and crude oil falling [11]. - The exchange rates of major currencies fluctuate, including the US dollar index falling [13].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need to implement a strategy to expand domestic demand, focusing on enhancing consumer willingness and capacity, and actively expanding effective investment space [1][6]. Group 1: Domestic Demand and Consumer Behavior - Insufficient domestic demand is identified as a major challenge for China's economic operation, with a low consumer rate of 39.9% in 2024, which is 10-30 percentage points lower than developed countries, particularly in service consumption [1][6]. - The NDRC plans to release consumer potential by enhancing consumer willingness through actions such as stabilizing major consumption and implementing a trade-in policy for consumer goods [7][8]. - There is a focus on increasing consumer capacity by prioritizing employment policies, stabilizing and expanding employment through various channels, and implementing a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Landscape - The NDRC notes that the aging population and changes in demographic structure are leading to a natural decline in real estate investment growth, while some manufacturing investments face issues of low-level duplication and homogenization [1][6]. - The NDRC highlights the need to optimize government investment structure, increasing the proportion of investments in people's livelihoods and advancing "two new" and "two heavy" projects to enhance investment efficiency [8]. - There is a call to improve the environment for private investment by establishing long-term mechanisms for private enterprises to participate in major projects and enhancing the role of government investment funds to stimulate private investment [4][8].

顺应消费升级、人口老龄化、促进出生人口增长等需要，在养老、托育、健康、文旅等消费配套设施领 域实施一批重点项目。 国家发改委在《求是》杂志发表文章《坚定实施扩大内需战略》中指出，着力释放居民消费潜力。 一方面，大力提升居民消费意愿。深入实施提振消费专项行动。加力稳定大宗消费，实施好消费品以旧 换新政策。强化品牌引领、标准升级、新技术应用，打造一批带动面广、显示度高的消费新场景。支持 首发经济、赛事经济、电子商务等发展。顺应消费升级、人口老龄化、促进出生人口增长等需要，在养 老、托育、健康、文旅等消费配套设施领域实施一批重点项目。大力实施城市更新，抓好停车场、老旧 电梯更新等民生微项目。进一步拓展入境消费，提升便利化水平。 另一方面，切实增强居民消费能力。强化就业优先政策，多渠道稳定和扩大就业，优化创业促进就业政 策环境，支持重点群体就业。实施城乡居民增收计划，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳 动报酬在初次分配中的比重，努力实现居民收入和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同 步。加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出。健全社会保障体系，稳步推进 基本公共服务均等化，加大生育 ...