Group 1: US Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls in May slightly exceeded expectations, but previous two months' data were significantly revised downwards; unemployment rate remains stable, and average hourly earnings were better than expected; bets on Fed rate cuts have decreased [2] - Fed's Harker calls for patience, stating that it is not the time for preemptive measures [2] - Fed Governor Bowman suggests proposing changes to the regulatory ratings for large banks; regulatory agencies will soon announce proposals to enhance the supplementary leverage ratio [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - ECB Governing Council member Holzmann expresses differing opinions on this week's interest rate decision, stating that the current nominal neutral rate is around 3% [3] - ECB Governing Council member Vujcic indicates that the current round of rate cuts is nearing its end [4] - ECB Governing Council member Centeno states that interest rates will stabilize around 2% for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Other Central Bank Developments - New Zealand's Chief Economist Conway mentions that lower interest rates will promote economic growth in the second half of the year [4] - The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering slowing the pace of its bond purchase reduction [5] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida states that Japan is gradually entering a phase of rising interest rates [5] - Bank of England member Green notes a short-term rebound in prices, but deflationary trends will continue [5] - ECB Governing Council member Escrivá suggests that the path for the benchmark interest rate may require slight adjustments [5]

Core Insights - A total of 182 ETF funds experienced net inflows from financing, while 26 funds saw net outflows from securities lending [1] - Significant inflows were observed in several ETFs, including the Sci-Tech 50 ETF, Hang Seng Medical ETF, Nasdaq Technology ETF, Gold ETF, and Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF, with net inflows of 74.72 million, 39.34 million, 34.99 million, 34.77 million, and 25.32 million respectively [1][3] - Conversely, two ETFs, the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 1000 ETF, experienced substantial net outflows from securities lending, totaling 61.32 million and 19.96 million respectively [1][5] Financing Net Inflows - The top five ETFs with the highest net inflows included: 1. Sci-Tech 50 ETF (74.72 million) 2. Hang Seng Medical ETF (39.34 million) 3. Nasdaq Technology ETF (34.99 million) 4. Gold ETF (34.77 million) 5. Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (25.32 million) [3][8] Securities Lending Net Outflows - The top two ETFs with the highest net outflows from securities lending were: 1. CSI 500 ETF (61.32 million) 2. CSI 1000 ETF (19.96 million) [5][10] Recent Trends in Financing - Over the past five days, 62 ETFs have seen continuous net inflows from financing, with the leading ones being the Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF, Hong Kong Financial ETF, Computer ETF, Digital Economy ETF, and Rare Earth ETF, with net inflows of 15.33 million, 4.46 million, 60.40 million, 5.46 million, and 2.27 million respectively [6][8] - The Computer ETF has shown accelerated inflows, totaling 60.40 million over the last five days [6] Recent Trends in Securities Lending - Eight ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows from securities lending, with the most significant being the CSI 500 ETF and CSI 1000 ETF, with net outflows of 135 million and 148 million respectively over the last five days [6][10] - The CSI 1000 ETF has seen a notable outflow, reaching 3.59% of its trading volume [8]

2025 年 06 月 08 日 月初或现资金面高点——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《股债性价比转向债券之后—— 资产配置周报》2025-06-02 2、《首推债券——资产配置周报》 2025-05-25 3、《债底保护价值凸显》2025-05- 25 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 4 月实体部门负债增 速录得 9.0%，前值 8.7%，符合我们之前的预期。预计 5 月实 体部门负债增速稳定在 9.0%附近，后续重回缩表。按照两会 公布的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降至 8%附近。金融部门方面，上周资金面边际上有所松弛，但或 出现月内高点。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出："使社会 融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目 标相匹配"，这表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没有任何动 摇，中国仍然处于边际缩表过程之中，大规模化债进一步降 低了地方政府融资成本、以及发生大规模 ...

当美股市场刚刚经历30多年来最强劲的5月行情后，基金经理们却发现自己处于进退两难的境地。 他们不仅错过了这轮反弹，还必须在当前高位做出一个可能决定全年业绩的关键决定： 是追涨入场，还是等待回调？ 表面来看，当前市场似乎没有太多值得恐惧的因素。美国企业持续交出稳健的盈利表现，经济衰退的概率并未飙升，特朗普的关税政策预计很快将变得更加明 朗。 然而，机构投资者正面临着俄乌冲突升温、第899条款的不确定性、政治风险回归、潜在的贸易报复性税收以及美元走弱等多重深层风险。尽管仅距历史新高 2.3%， 当前标普500似乎在6000点遇到短期阻力位。 数据显示，在上周五之前，该股指连续七个交易日的涨跌幅均未超过0.6%，创下自去年12月以来最长的 平静期。 虽然焦虑情绪持续，但除了特朗普关税因素外，没人能指出去杠杆化的催化剂。Wealth Alliance总裁兼董事总经理Eric Diton表示： 要让美股重返历史新高，我们必须消除不确定性，但在贸易混乱得到解决之前，大多数催化剂都难以捉摸。 经济数据疲软，市场却"麻木"狂欢 对于美股交易员而言，当前市场似乎没有太多值得恐惧的因素。美国企业持续交出稳健的盈利表现，经济衰退的 ...

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 06 月 08 日 基金久期回升——债市晴雨表 【债市情绪】上周债市情绪指数为 115.8，较前值回落 0.1；债市情绪扩散指数 49.0%，较前值回落 6.8 个百分点。 【机构久期】上周五基金久期为 2.17 年，较前一周五回升 0.02 年；农商行久期 为 2.85 年，较前一周五回落 0.01 年；保险久期为 6.79 年，较前一周五回落 0.01 年。 【杠杆率】上周质押式回购余额为 11.3 万亿元，较前值回升 0.3 万亿元；大行 净融出余额为 4.1 万亿元，较前值回升 0.3 万亿元；债市杠杆率为 103.5%，较 前值回升 0.1 个百分点。 【二级成交】上周从换手率来看，30Y 国债换手率为 1.7%，较前值回落 0.2 个 百分点。10Y 国债换手率为 0.9%，较前值回落 0.6 个百分点；10Y 国开债换手 率为 28.5%，较前值回升 2.3 个百分点；超长期信用债换手率为 0.53%，较前 值回落 0.12 个百分点。 【配置力量】债市配置力量来看，上周债基新发行份额为 98 亿元，较前值持平； 风险偏好来看，股市风险溢价为 2.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are in a dilemma after the strongest May performance in over 30 years for the US stock market, facing a critical decision that could determine their annual performance: whether to chase the rally or wait for a pullback [1][2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is currently 2.3% away from its historical high, facing short-term resistance around 6000 points, with a notable calm period where the index's daily fluctuations did not exceed 0.6% for seven consecutive trading days [2][4] - In May, the Nasdaq rose by 9% and the S&P 500 increased by 6%, marking the best May performance in over 30 years [4] Economic Indicators - Despite a lack of fear factors in the market, economic data appears weak, and the probability of recession has not surged, with US companies continuing to report solid earnings [2][3] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core readings, raising the year-over-year figure to 2.9%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4][5] Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing sense of complacency among investors, with concerns about potential risks being overshadowed by a belief that trade and tariff risks are under control [6][7] - The market is experiencing a divergence in trading volume, with the lowest trading volume of the year occurring recently, indicating underlying market disagreements [10] Political and Trade Risks - Political risks are resurfacing, particularly with the breakdown of relations between Trump and Musk, which led to a sell-off in the S&P 500 and an 18% drop in Tesla's stock [8] - The introduction of the 899th clause, which could impose retaliatory taxes on countries deemed to have "unfair foreign tax practices," is raising concerns among investors regarding its potential impact on various sectors [8] Global Market Comparison - The S&P 500 has underperformed the MSCI global index (excluding the US) by nearly 12 percentage points in 2025, marking the worst relative performance since 1993 [6] - The gap in absolute returns between the S&P 500 and the German DAX index is about 20%, which widens to approximately 30% when adjusted for currency fluctuations [8]

美联储理事鲍曼：银行监管机构将在不久的将来公布建议，以完善提高补充杠杆率。 ...

证券研究报告 固收 供求支撑下的波段与品种增厚—— 2025 年中期信用债展望 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 06 日│中国内地 中期策略 报告核心观点 高等级二永债可随利率波段交易，但空间较窄，对交易要求较高，负债端稳 定机构逢调整增配。1-3 年优质城农商行信用风险可控，可适当下沉挖掘， 增厚票息。TLAC 非资本工具关注扩容及与二级资本债比价机会。券商、保 险债交易活跃度低，以逢高配置为主。私募永续债方面，可关注 2 年以内主 流城投、中短久期地产国企及优质电力、交运、公用事业等品种配置机会。 消金小微类 ABS 放量，震荡市可品种挖掘。公募 Reits 兼顾一二级机会， 一级关注如 IDC、文旅等新资产上市和扩募机会，二级可逢市场调整增配基 本面稳健项目。 展望下半年，利率或延续震荡市格局，信用债胜在供需关系略好，存款搬家 带来非银增量需求，但理财整改、债基负债端不稳定，信用债中短端需求好 于长端。供给方面，城投严监管下，仍以央国企产业、国股行二永债为主， 关注科创债扩容、城投转型等带来的机会。化债下信用风险可控+实体融资 缓慢修复，信用利差仍有下行机会，但空间或不大且波动较多。建议继续以 震荡思路 ...

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从行业分布来看，机械设备行业表现最为突出，共有8只个股获得超百万元融资净买入。计算机行业有4只个股上榜，基础化工行业则有3只个股入选。这种 行业集中度反映出杠杆资金对特定板块的关注程度存在明显差异。 市场表现与交易活跃度 获得融资净买入超百万元的个股在市场表现方面呈现分化态势。6月3日这些个股平均上涨0.98%，其中九菱科技、优机股份、梓橦宫涨幅居前，分别上涨 8.57%、8.14%、7.42%。同时有13只个股出现下跌，路桥信息、三友科技、安徽凤凰跌幅相对较大。 交易活跃度方面，获融资净买入超百万元个股的加权平均换手率达到4.77%，高于当日北交所股票4.65%的日均换手率。优机股份、三友科技、胜业电气等 个股换手率表现突出，日换手率分别为27.43%、24.69%、20.83%，显示出较高的市场关注度和资金参与程度。 北交所融资融券市场呈现活跃态势，杠杆资金对部分个股表现出明显偏好。6月3日数据显示，北交所融资融券余额合计53.94亿元，较前一交易日减少224.57 万元。融资余额为53.93亿元，较前一交易日减少256.75万元，连续2个交易日出现下降。融券余额为112.49万元，较前一交易日增加32. ...