长江期货棉花月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-06-03 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 反弹结束，震荡回落 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 02 供应端分析：新季全球供应仍显宽松 03 需求端分析：下游需求总体尚稳 04 逻辑与展望：震荡回落 目 录 05 02 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 01 5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 5月郑棉大幅反弹后震荡运行，宏观层面，月初中美开始接触直至联合声明发布，中美关税战趋向缓和，市场 情绪有所缓解，期价从低位一路上行，达到月内最大涨幅，5 月 28 日，美国联邦贸易法院裁决阻止了特朗普 对等关税，后续对等关税发展如何需暂时观望，不确定性较大。基本面来看，市场前期部分积压订单逐步发运， 有少量订单回流，但棉类产业链传导不明 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-06-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，特朗普关于中美关税言论和美豆种植天气良好影响，美豆短期千 点关口上方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕 探底回升，美豆带动和国内油厂豆粕库存处于低位，进口巴西大豆到港增多和中美关税 谈判后续交互影响，短期回归区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2830（华东），基差-138，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存20.69万吨，上周12.17万吨，环比增加70.01%，去年同期76.06万吨， 同比减少72.8%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. tariffs on China continues as the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) ruled that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal, but the government has appealed this decision, leading to further complications in U.S.-China trade relations [2][3]. Tariff Details - The CIT identified four specific tariffs as illegal, including a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, a 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to fentanyl smuggling issues, a 10% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese products, and small tariffs on goods valued under $800 [4][3]. - Since February, the Trump administration has significantly increased tariffs, reaching as high as 145% on certain Chinese imports by April [5][6]. Legal Proceedings - Following the CIT's ruling on May 28, the Trump administration sought a stay of execution from the Federal Circuit Court, which allowed the tariffs to remain in effect while further materials are submitted by both parties [3][6]. - The CIT's decision was initiated by a lawsuit from the Freedom and Justice Center, representing five small U.S. businesses affected by the tariffs, marking the first legal challenge against Trump's tariff policies [8]. Market Impact - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to persist, affecting cross-border e-commerce sellers who are advised to prepare for ongoing volatility [7]. - Despite the challenges, many e-commerce sellers remain optimistic, believing that the U.S. will struggle to find alternatives to the Chinese supply chain and that they can adjust prices if tariffs increase [7][8].

核 心 内 容 月度商品价格预测： 黄金区间震荡，铜、油震荡上行 内需： 房销量改善，而车小幅回落；服务消费表现分化。 ①新房销量增速升，二手房和乘用车降，家电月均销售价同比增速涨多跌少。5月新房销量增速降幅继续收窄，其中一二线级城市增速降幅略有走扩，三四线呈现 大幅收窄态势；而二手房延续价升量跌。商品消费中，乘用车零售小幅回落、而批发上升，半钢胎开工率维持稳定。本周家电销售均价多有回升，月均销售价同比 增速涨多跌少。 ②服务消费表现分化。上周电影票房有所改善，同比降幅收窄；四大一线城市至海口的机票价格续升；酒店每间可售房收入虽然有所下降，但同比增速上行。不 过，商圈人流指数续降，同比增速放缓。 外需： 抢出口接棒抢转口，美关税政策有所反复。 ①5月集装箱吞吐量和离港船只载重等出口数量指标有所回落，考虑到去年同期基数大幅抬升，预计出口增速将有所下行。 ②中国至美国港口集装箱预订量周同比继续回升，而传统转口贸易地区港口停靠量周同比大幅回落，指向抢出口接棒抢转口。 ③美国国际贸易法院裁定特朗普对等关税政策因越权而暂停生效，但后续又允许关税暂时继续生效，最终裁决情况未知，后续需关注最新进展。 ①化工链下游工厂投机性 ...

中美关税战爆发以来，美国商务部的工作量那叫一个"忙"，前脚是对华关税政策就改了好几遍，如今后脚又出手就停 了一些关键的美国技术的对华出口。 中美联合声明生效两周，按理说，中美关税战本应迈向新节点。 可没想到，特朗普政府次上演变卦戏码又让一切陷入了僵局，此次美国暂停对华商飞（COMAC）出售产品和技术的 许可证的到底想做什么呢？ 此番对华开启限制航空发动机技术出口许可这事，说白了就是特朗普政府迫于现实想出来的"以退为进"法子。 中美降税的问题日内瓦会晤召开时已经有了基本定调，但这对美国来说根本就是一碟吃不饱的开胃菜。 美国想要的不光是一中方坐下来谈判，还妄想利用关税战的契机实现利益最大化。 那美国为什么过了两周才开始变卦呢？往深了说，这背后就是美国打的三个如意算盘。 第一，美国忌惮中国航空业的快速崛起，早就在开始设套，施压抵制我国国产大飞机在航空领域的自主突破。 虽说中美之间一直有航空发动机技术出口的合作，但中方对自主发动机的深耕从来没有停止过。 如今，国产C919暂时用着美法合资的LEAP-1C发动机，可在11年前中方的自研发动机CJ-1000A就提上了日程。 CJ-1000A是专门给中方C919大飞机量身定 ...

自特朗普上台以来，他就迫不及待地采取了关税手段，针对我国发起经济攻势。自2月份起，美国接连三个月加大对我国的 关税力度，尤其是到了4月，关税的压力变得更加沉重。显然，特朗普急于阻止我国日益增长的经济势头，深怕美方被甩得 越来越远。于是，他采取了极端手段，歇斯底里地将矛头指向我国，妄图制止我国的发展。然而面对美国的咄咄逼人，我国 始终表现得沉着冷静。 每当美方加大税率的同时，我国都能以同样的方式做出回应，而其他国家往往无法做到这一点。美国在加税后很快就感受到 压力，最终不得不开始妥协。最近的一次中美对话再次证明，美方在这场博弈中输了，甚至美国官员万斯公开表示，美国霸 权时代已经宣告终结。 回顾过去，曾经中美关系在某些时期还是友好相处的，那时候我国的发展速度较慢，美方还曾主动伸出援手，助力我国走向 更好的未来。无疑，那段日子是双方关系中最为和谐的一段，但这一美好时光如今已不复存在。 特朗普在首次担任总统时，将矛头直指我国，专注于经济领域的对抗。这一行为迫使我国不得不做出反击，并正式拉开了中 美对抗的序幕。从2018年至今，美国始终在各个领域与我国针锋相对，中美之间的对抗越来越加剧，显然这种局面是美国自 己的所作所 ...

Group 1: Copper - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Copper prices show strong resilience due to US tariff policies despite the domestic market entering the off - season. There are concerns about supply due to the shutdown of the Kamoa copper mine [1] - Summary: - Intraday View: Fluctuate between 77,500 - 79,000 [1] - Medium - term View: Fluctuate between 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - Core Logic: Macro - Trump postponed EU tariffs, increasing market risk appetite; Supply - LME available inventory dropped to a one - year low, and the Kakula copper mine in Congo stopped production; Demand - US tariff policy boosted import demand, while domestic downstream demand declined; Inventory - LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased [1] Group 2: Protein Meal - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The trend of soybean meal being stronger in the far - term than the near - term is weakening. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options on near - term soybean meal contracts and holding the "long soybean oil 2509 - short palm oil 2509" position [4][6] - Summary: - Intraday View: Soybean and rapeseed meal continue to fluctuate widely [2] - Medium - term View: The far - strong and near - weak trend of soybean meal weakens [4] - Reference Strategy: Sell the out - of - the - money put option of soybean meal 2509 - P - 2850 [4] - Core Logic: As of May 27, the basis of soybean meal spot - 09 was negative. There may be positive factors from US soybean shipments and weather speculation. Domestic soybean meal has the characteristic of "not following the rise of the external market". The US biodiesel policy and RVO obligations have uncertainties. South American soybean production is finalized, and the focus shifts to North America. Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, while Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to decline [4][5][6] Group 3: Petroleum Asphalt - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: In the short term, asphalt prices face upward pressure due to factors such as rainfall and funds. In the long term, with the increase in supply and weak demand, if oil prices decline, asphalt prices are expected to follow a weak trend [8][10] - Summary: - Intraday View: Operate under pressure [7] - Medium - term View: Oscillate weakly [7] - Reference Strategy: Sell at high prices [8] - Core Logic: Supply - Local refineries are in a loss - making state, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has declined. Production is expected to increase in May. Demand - Rainfall in some areas and poor project funds have led to weak demand. Inventory - Asphalt plant inventory has decreased, while social inventory has increased. Cost - Oil price fluctuations are large, and there is support from raw material costs [8][9]

在全球经济与政治的大舞台上，局势常常风云变幻，波澜壮阔。而其中一场极为引人注目的戏剧，莫过 于中美之间的关税战。这并非一场普通的贸易摩擦，而是如同一场紧张激烈的战争，波及的范围广泛、 影响深远，世界各国无不对此高度关注。特别是在这场关税战的背后，不仅能看到全球贸易格局的变 化，还能感受到各国纷纷重新审视自己与美国关系的复杂局面。尤其是欧洲国家的态度变化，更是耐人 寻味。 中美关税战：一场精彩的反击战 中国在关税战中的亮眼表现无疑为其他国家提供了有益的借鉴，尤其是欧洲国家纷纷效仿中国的强硬策 略，敢于与美国展开对抗。看到中国的成功，欧洲国家开始一一表态，显然不再对美国的关税威胁低 头。欧盟作为一个经济大国，在对美国的关税谈判中采取了坚决的态度，明确表示，如果美国不降税， 欧盟将进行报复。 欧盟的态度背后有着强大的底气。在钢铁、铝和汽车等领域，美国对欧盟征收了25%的进口关税，几乎 对其他所有商品征收10%的"基准关税"，并且准备进一步加征20%的"对等关税"，这让欧盟遭受了重大 损失。面对美国的不断施压，欧盟决定勇敢反击。 然而，关税战并没有持续太久。美国消费者发现，原本物美价廉的中国商品变得昂贵，生活成本随之 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various asset classes and industries. It maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas, and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, the US inflation expectation structure is stable with short - term fundamental resilience, while in China, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Different industries and asset classes are expected to show different trends, mostly in a state of oscillation [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Tariff and US debt concerns are the main drivers of market volatility in May. The EU has requested an extension of the tariff negotiation deadline to July 9, which was approved by President Trump. The US House of Representatives passed a large - scale tax - cut and spending bill, increasing concerns about US debt. US retail sales in April increased slightly by 0.1%, and the May manufacturing and service PMIs were better than expected [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: April's domestic economic data showed resilience, and policy expectations were generally stable. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation was completed. The 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPRs were both cut by 10BP in May, and major state - owned banks lowered deposit rates. Investment and consumption growth in April slightly slowed down but remained resilient. Fixed - asset investment from January to April increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1% year - on - year in April [6]. - **Asset View**: In the large - scale asset category, the report maintains the view of more volatility and a preference for safe - haven assets overseas and a structural market in China. It suggests strategic allocation of gold and non - US dollar assets. In the overseas market, the US inflation expectation structure is stable, and the short - term fundamentals are resilient. In the Chinese market, the growth - stabilizing policies maintain their stance, and the export resilience and tariff relaxation support the Q2 economic growth. Bonds have allocation value after the capital pressure eases, and stocks and commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The proportion of small - cap and micro - cap trading volume shows a downward trend, and the stock index discount is converging, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and attention should be paid to the option market liquidity, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations, with an expected oscillation [7]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals continued to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, with an expected oscillation [7]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. The short - term trend is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Demand continues to weaken, and both futures and spot prices are falling. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The arrival of shipments has been continuously low, and port inventories have decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, and port inventory changes, with an expected oscillation [7]. - **Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coke enterprises are having difficulty in shipping. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The pressure to reduce inventory is increasing, and market sentiment is low. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish than expected stance, and weaker - than - expected domestic demand recovery, with an expected oscillation and increase [7]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The event of revoking mining licenses has not been finalized, and the aluminum oxide market oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - expected resumption of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends, with an expected oscillation and decline [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of production increase is strengthened, and oil prices continue to face pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies, the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and the US sanctions on Iran, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **LPG**: Demand continues to weaken, and LPG maintains a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Concerns about tariffs have subsided, and the over - expected scale of EG maintenance has boosted futures prices. Attention should be paid to the terminal demand for ethylene glycol, with an expected oscillation and increase [9]. Agriculture - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of pigs stopped falling before the festival, but the futures market remained weak. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies, with an expected oscillation and decline [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillate slightly. Attention should be paid to demand and production, with an expected oscillation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guangdong Hongqiang New Materials Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Hongqiang"), maintains a stable credit rating despite a decline in profitability due to the deep adjustment in the real estate industry, with expectations of continued revenue and cash flow contributions from its competitive advantages in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces [2][5]. Financial Performance - The company's total assets increased from 20.06 billion in 2022 to 28.87 billion in 2025, while the equity attributable to shareholders rose from 15.16 billion to 16.71 billion during the same period [2]. - The company's operating income decreased from 7.61 billion in 2023 to 6.75 billion in 2024, with a net profit drop from 0.86 billion to 0.03 billion [3]. - The net cash flow from operating activities turned negative at -0.21 billion in 2024, compared to 1.76 billion in 2023 [3]. Industry Context - The concrete admixture market is under pressure due to a slowdown in construction and new project starts, directly impacting the demand for concrete admixtures [10][12]. - The overall demand for concrete admixtures is weak, with the industry facing intensified competition and declining prices, leading to a significant drop in revenue for companies like Hongqiang [10][14]. - The company holds a leading position in the concrete admixture market in Guangdong and Guangxi, with over 50% of its revenue coming from the South China market, maintaining a gross margin above 30% [2][5]. Credit Rating and Outlook - The credit rating agency has assigned a stable outlook for Hongqiang, reflecting its competitive advantages in key regions despite ongoing industry challenges [5]. - The company’s net debt at the end of 2024 was 0.63 billion, indicating manageable financial risk [5]. Investment Projects - The company has utilized the proceeds from its convertible bonds to expand into the chemical sector, with projects entering trial production by the end of 2024 [2][19]. - The new projects aim to enhance revenue sources and improve cost advantages through upstream integration in the supply chain [19][20]. Customer and Market Dynamics - The customer base primarily consists of regional concrete mixing stations, which are closely tied to the real estate sector, exposing the company to risks associated with the ongoing real estate downturn [18]. - The company has established long-term partnerships with major infrastructure construction firms, but the overall contribution from these clients remains low [18].