Group 1 - The preliminary report from the University of Michigan indicates a decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 55.4 in September, marking the lowest level since May and a second consecutive month of decline [1][2] - The report highlights that the long-term inflation expectations have risen for two consecutive months, contributing to increased uncertainty in the economic outlook [2] - The decline in consumer confidence suggests potential reductions in consumer spending, which could negatively impact overall economic growth [2] Group 2 - Analysts point out that the ongoing decrease in consumer confidence reflects the dual pressures of slowing growth and rising inflation facing the U.S. economy [2] - The increase in the probability of personal unemployment among consumers indicates heightened concerns about job market stability, which weighs heavily on consumer sentiment [2] - Recent data shows that in August, U.S. employers added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [2]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in each of the remaining three meetings this year, accelerating the timeline from previous expectations of cuts only in September and December [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates consecutively starting from next week's meeting, reaching a target range of 3.00%-3.25% by January 2024, with additional cuts anticipated in April and July 2026 [1] - The market anticipates a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meeting, with a 7.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut, although Standard Chartered is the only institution predicting a 50 basis point cut this month [1] Group 2 - The U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, both exceeding expectations [1] - Despite ongoing inflationary pressures, market expectations for rate cuts remain largely unaffected [1] - The Federal Reserve's previous rate cuts from September to December last year totaled 100 basis points, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%, but the Fed has paused cuts five times this year due to inflation risks from tariff policies [2]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently experiencing a volatile upward trend, trading around $3646.18 per ounce, following a slight decline of 0.2% to $3632.49 per ounce [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, driven by geopolitical risks, inflation pressures, and expectations surrounding U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy [2] - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose by 2.9% year-on-year, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - Despite a recent pullback from a record high of $3674.36, the overall bullish trend for gold remains intact, with support levels identified around $3620 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $66.07 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped by 0.5% to $62.00 per barrel, reflecting ongoing market pressure [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global supply growth will outpace expectations by 2025 due to OPEC+ production plans, while OPEC maintains a positive outlook for global demand growth [6] - The oil market is currently facing a dual challenge of increasing supply and demand uncertainties, with OPEC+ deciding to raise production quotas starting in October [6] - Technical analysis indicates that oil prices are in a weak downward trend, with short-term resistance levels at $65.0-$66.0 and support levels at $62.0-$61.0 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, inflation pressure in the US still exists, but the rebound is relatively limited, supporting the Fed's August rate cut. The increase in the weekly initial jobless claims in the US highlights the downward risk in the job market and boosts the expectation of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, which supports precious metal prices. However, the strong performance of domestic and overseas bond markets restricts the attractiveness of gold, while silver benefits from risk improvement and shows a strong performance similar to industrial products. Before the rate cut is implemented, precious metal prices are expected to remain at a high level, and long positions can be held, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [5]. - In the long - term, due to the Fed's rate - cut expectation, continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - On September 11, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 830.78 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.28% to 9,798 yuan/kilogram [5]. Price and Spread Data - **Price Data**: On September 11, compared with September 10, London gold spot rose 0.2%, COMEX silver fell 0.2%, AG (T + D) fell 0.3%, London silver spot rose 0.1%, AU2510 fell 0.3%, COMEX gold fell 0.3%, AG2510 remained unchanged, and AU (T + D) remained unchanged [5]. - **Spread Data**: For spreads on September 11 compared with September 10, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 17.1%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 16.3%, the spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) increased by 1.2%, the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 22.0%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.4%, the AU2512 - 2510 spread increased by 12.0%, the AG2512 - 2510 spread increased by 15.0% [5]. Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: For COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on September 10 compared with September 9, the number increased by 14.52%, and for COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, it increased by 7.83%. The number of gold ETF - SPDR positions increased by 16.43%, and the number of silver ETF - SLV positions decreased by 14.79% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: On September 10 compared with September 9, SHFE gold inventory increased by 0.96%, COMEX silver inventory remained unchanged, SHFE silver inventory increased by 0.47%, and COMEX gold inventory increased by 9.14% [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On September 11 compared with September 10, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 2.06%, NYWEX crude oil decreased by 0.04%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.08%, the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, and VIX increased by 1.56% [5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is preparing to restart a rate-cutting cycle, diverging from other major central banks that are nearing the end of their easing cycles [1][2] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut rates by 25 basis points next week, with a cumulative reduction of nearly 70 basis points by the end of the year, and some institutions do not rule out a 50 basis points cut [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained its rate at 2% and lowered its inflation forecast for 2027 to 1.9%, with a 50% probability of a rate cut around mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The Bank of Japan is the only major central bank tightening its monetary policy, with potential for a rate hike by the end of the year despite domestic political uncertainties [1] - The Bank of Canada is expected to restart rate cuts next week due to weak economic conditions and rising unemployment, with two more cuts anticipated by January next year [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has already cut rates by 25 basis points last month and is expected to cut again in October and by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but remain in a strong upward trend, with significant support from geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [2][3] - As of September 12, spot gold is trading around $3635.18 per ounce, having seen a slight decline of 0.2% from the previous day, but still close to the record high of $3674.36 set earlier in the week [2] - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by 38%, influenced by U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations [2] Group 2 - Recent U.S. economic data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, marking a seven-month high, while initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, indicating a weakening labor market [2] - These mixed signals have led to increased volatility in the market but ultimately reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing further support for gold prices [2] - Technical analysis suggests that gold remains above the 5-day moving average, indicating no signs of a top and maintaining a strong bullish trend, with potential targets of $3660 and $3675 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the impact of economic indicators and Federal Reserve monetary policy on gold prices, highlighting a strong consensus on an imminent interest rate cut [1][2] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with a recent peak at $3674.36 per ounce, reflecting a 38% increase year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation pressures [1][2] - The latest U.S. economic data indicates a mixed picture, with a consumer price index (CPI) increase of 2.9% year-on-year, the highest in seven months, alongside a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, suggesting a weakening labor market [1][2] Group 2 - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, with a 91% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reinforcing expectations for a looser monetary policy [2] - The low interest rate environment is expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset, despite some signs of buyer fatigue in recent price movements [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish sentiment in the gold market, with a potential resistance level at $3650 and support around $3610, suggesting a cautious trading approach [3][5]

Core Insights - The core consumer price index in the U.S. rose in August as expected, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1] - The Trump administration's global tariff policy has impacted the prices of certain goods, while rising service costs may exert longer-lasting pressure on overall inflation [1] - Despite recent weak employment data, the market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate cut of the year in the upcoming meeting [1] - If inflation remains strong, the potential for further rate cuts in the future may be limited [1]

Group 1 - LME copper prices reached a weekly high of over $10,000 per ton, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - On September 10, LME three-month copper rose by $99, or 1%, closing at $10,013.00 per ton, marking the third test of the $10,000 psychological level this month [1][2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for August showed a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, lower than the expected 3.3%, indicating relatively modest inflationary pressures [4] Group 2 - LME three-month zinc prices increased by $30.5, or 1.07%, closing at $2,886.5 per ton, driven by supply concerns as zinc inventories have decreased by nearly 75% since mid-April [5] - Other base metals also saw price increases, with LME three-month aluminum up by $2.5, or 0.1%, at $2,625.0 per ton, and LME three-month lead rising by $10, or 0.51%, to $1,987.0 per ton [6][7] - LME three-month nickel and tin prices also experienced gains, with nickel up by $41, or 0.27%, at $15,146.0 per ton, and tin rising by $597, or 1.76%, to $34,606.0 per ton [8][9]

Group 1 - Global markets showed significant turmoil with US stocks reversing previous gains and entering a new downtrend, while US Treasury yields plummeted and gold prices reached an all-time high, indicating a market pricing in a potential recession [1] - Two key events next week are expected to have a major impact on the market: the annual revision of US employment data and the release of the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming revision of US employment data is anticipated to be significant, with expectations of a substantial downward adjustment that could heighten recession concerns and influence Federal Reserve policy decisions amid increasing economic uncertainty [1] - The August CPI data will be crucial for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September, with diverging market expectations potentially leading to increased volatility depending on whether the CPI data is higher or lower than anticipated [2][3] - There is an expanding gap between market expectations and those of the Federal Reserve, with the market pricing in multiple rate cuts, which could lead to significant market fluctuations following the release of key data [3]