今夜，全球市场都在盯着美联储。 北京时间9月18日凌晨，美联储将公布利率决议结果和经济预期，凌晨2点30分，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。这可能是全球投 资者最不敢错过的一场"直播"。 对于是否会降息，似乎已经没了悬念——综合各种经济数据、各方表态和机构预测来看，美联储时隔九个月重启降息已经是板上钉钉。 7月30日，美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社发 但别以为一切已成定局，真正牵动市场的，还有三大悬念： 一是降息的幅度。 不过，鉴于通胀率仍高于美联储2%的目标，且特朗普关税措施可能在未来数月进一步推高通胀，这使得部分美联储决策者对过快行动持 谨慎态度。 另外，对降息较为保守的一方认为，移民政策导致劳工供给大跌，并非劳动需求出了严重问题。 所以目前来看，降25个基点仍是主流预测。 二是投票还会不会"打架"。 美联储上次的议息会议，多达两位理事投票反对美联储当时按兵不动的决定，这可是三十多年来头一遭。很多人觉得，这俩人的态度， 可能就是特朗普一直施压的效果。 特朗普一直以来都没掩饰他对降息的渴望，又是喊话又是批评，可谓软硬兼施，但鲍威尔一直在"硬刚"。 随着白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬· ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a key interest rate decision in the second half of 2025, with a 95.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - A rate cut is anticipated to trigger a liquidity turning point in global financial markets, affecting the performance of U.S. stocks, emerging markets, and commodities [1][3] Group 2 - In the U.S. stock market, technology growth is expected to remain the main focus, while traditional cyclical sectors may perform relatively flat [3][5] - The Nasdaq 100 index, primarily composed of technology stocks, is likely to continue its upward trend post-rate cut, benefiting companies like Apple and Microsoft due to reduced financing costs [4] - Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks typically experience a "rate cut trade" lasting around three months, suggesting limited concern for immediate pullbacks [6] Group 3 - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, may attract new capital as the U.S. dollar weakens post-rate cut [7] - A-shares in sectors like AI computing and semiconductors are expected to benefit from valuation expansion due to low interest rates, while Hong Kong tech stocks may recover from previous pressures [8] Group 4 - In the commodities market, gold and silver are seen as having greater opportunities compared to oil, with gold historically showing an 83% success rate in the ten trading days following rate cuts [9] - The appeal of gold is heightened by reduced opportunity costs and rising geopolitical risks, while silver benefits from both its safe-haven and industrial demand [9] Group 5 - The "雪球三分法" (Snowball Three-Part Method) is proposed as a strategy for investors to navigate the differentiated market conditions post-rate cut [11] - This method emphasizes asset, market, and timing diversification to capture opportunities across various sectors while mitigating risks associated with single markets [12] Group 6 - Asset diversification can lower volatility, as evidenced by a significant reduction in maximum drawdown when incorporating gold into traditional stock-bond portfolios during rate hikes [13] - Market diversification allows for capturing opportunities across global markets, reducing the impact of correlated movements between different asset classes [16] Group 7 - Timing diversification through regular investment can alleviate concerns about market timing, allowing investors to benefit from long-term trends without the stress of buying at peak prices [17]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate a rate cut in September, with discussions focusing on the magnitude of the cut, speculated to be between 25 to 75 basis points, with a 74% probability for a 75 basis point cut as of September 14, 2025[2][11] - Historical data indicates that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to changes in U.S. monetary policy due to the linked exchange rate system between the Hong Kong dollar and the U.S. dollar[10] Group 2: Historical Performance of Hong Kong Indices - In previous rate cut cycles, the three major Hong Kong indices (Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index) typically exhibit a volatile pattern in the 30 trading days leading up to the cut, followed by a period of adjustment post-cut[22][29] - The Hang Seng Tech Index tends to show smaller declines immediately after a rate cut and greater gains in the subsequent period compared to the other indices[29][31] Group 3: Market Reactions Post Rate Cut - On average, the three indices tend to decline in the two trading days before the cut, rise on the day before, and then drop on the day of the cut and the following two days[33][39] - After a rate cut, the Hang Seng Tech Index has historically shown a stronger recovery, with average returns of 1.03% in the four weeks following the cut, compared to 0.08% for the Hang Seng Index[19][24] Group 4: Comparison with Previous Rate Cut Cycles - The current environment is more complex than previous rate cut cycles in 2019 and 2024, with persistent inflation and economic slowdown concerns[49][51] - Historical examples of "recessionary rate cuts" show that the performance of the indices can vary significantly based on economic fundamentals and corporate earnings, indicating that a recessionary context does not guarantee a decline in stock prices[56][62] Group 5: Risk Factors - Potential risks include historical data bias, extrapolation risks, and the possibility that the magnitude and frequency of rate cuts may be lower than expected[61]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 3.9% probability of a 50 basis point cut, which has positively impacted gold prices, pushing them from approximately $3,310 to a peak of $3,702 in the past month [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Cuts and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady after three cuts totaling 100 basis points since September of last year, leading to concerns about a potential economic recession [3]. - Recent economic indicators, including a weak job market and easing inflation pressures, have bolstered expectations for an interest rate cut [3][6]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - 95% of investors view the upcoming rate cut as a "preemptive cut," which historically tends to support asset price increases more effectively than "recessionary cuts" that are reactive to economic downturns [6]. - In the last 30 years, gold has averaged a 32% increase during Fed rate cut cycles, with the current cycle seeing a 41% increase in gold prices [7]. Group 3: Key Factors Supporting Gold Prices - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, purchasing over 1,000 tons annually since 2022, which is a significant bullish factor for gold [7]. - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern instability, have enhanced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [7]. - A weakening dollar and expectations of declining real interest rates are anticipated to further elevate gold prices, as historical trends show a negative correlation between gold prices and real interest rates [7]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Projections - Following dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, market expectations for a September rate cut have remained above 90%, indicating that the cut is largely priced in, but there may be short-term adjustment pressures [11]. - Long-term bullish factors for gold remain intact, with potential price targets reaching $4,000 as the upward trend may just be beginning [11].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool [2][3] - The rationale behind the rate cut includes addressing economic slowdown and stimulating recovery by reducing borrowing costs for businesses and consumers [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators Influencing the Decision - Recent economic data, such as a significant drop in non-farm payrolls to 22,000 in August and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, suggest a weakening job market [3] - Consumer spending, which accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. GDP, is likely to be affected by limited income growth due to the weak job market [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Historically, in a preemptive rate cut environment, U.S. stock markets tend to show resilience, supported by lower financing costs for companies [5] - Rate-sensitive sectors, particularly technology and small-cap stocks, are expected to perform well during this period [5] - Bond prices are anticipated to rise as a result of the rate cut, with long-term bonds benefiting the most [5] Group 4: Global Market Impact - A weaker dollar is expected as a result of the rate cut, which may lead to capital flowing into emerging markets, particularly in Asia [6][7] - Commodity prices, especially gold, are likely to rise during the rate cut cycle, with historical data showing a high success rate for gold in such periods [7] Group 5: A-shares Market Outlook - The anticipated rate cut is viewed positively for the A-shares market, with expectations of increased foreign investment and improved market liquidity [9] - Sectors such as technology and finance are expected to benefit from lower financing costs and improved economic outlook [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown and a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to finalize the meeting's participant list just before the meeting is unprecedented, indicating potential internal conflicts among officials [2][4]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is approximately 96%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [6]. - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [8]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts and Predictions - The internal division within the Federal Reserve may be more pronounced than in previous meetings, with some officials advocating for a larger rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [11][12]. - The addition of Milan to the Federal Reserve is expected to strengthen the faction supporting more aggressive rate cuts, while the hawkish side remains significant [12]. Group 3: Dot Plot and Future Rate Cuts - The dot plot will be closely watched for indications of future rate cuts, particularly regarding the number of cuts expected in 2025 and the potential for increased divergence in 2026 predictions [13][14]. - Analysts predict that the dot plot will show two rate cuts for the year, with the possibility of an adjustment based on internal disagreements [17][20]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically shows positive returns in the 12 to 24 months following the Federal Reserve's first or resumed rate cuts [22][23]. - In periods of strong economic performance with limited rate cuts, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials tend to outperform, while defensive sectors gain traction during more aggressive rate cuts [26][30]. - Gold prices historically rise when the Federal Reserve cuts rates amid high inflation, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [26].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point rate cut due to recent slowing employment growth [1] - Market consensus anticipates a 25 basis point cut, but there are expectations for a 50 basis point cut or continued cuts until 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions to Rate Cut - CICC believes the upcoming rate cut is a "preventive" measure, indicating a gradual recovery of the U.S. economy, with potential overheating risks [2] - The market is expected to shift from "easing trades" (bonds strong, stocks weak) to "recovery trades" (stocks strong, bonds weak) over a transition period of 1-3 months [2] Group 3: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares saw collective gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.16%, and ChiNext Index up 1.95% [3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23,767 billion yuan, a slight increase of 353 billion yuan from the previous day [4] Group 4: Sector Performance and Trends - The ChiNext Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, and CSI 500 Index reached new highs [5] - The recent K-line patterns of the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index show strong offensive characteristics, with key sectors like communication equipment and new energy driving the indices [6] Group 5: Broker Stocks and Market Dynamics - Major brokerage stocks, including CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan, experienced significant selling pressure, indicating they are not yet in a primary upward trend [7] - The market is characterized by rotation among major sectors, with human-shaped robots, automotive, communication, and AI sectors generally rising [7] Group 6: Future Outlook and Key Sectors - The communication equipment sector's index is being closely monitored for potential new highs, while AI hardware stocks are expected to lead the market [8] - The solid-state battery sector shows a promising upward trend, warranting attention on core stocks [8]

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing volatility, with the main contract dropping to a low of 9890.00 yuan and currently trading at 9916.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.67% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Silver prices are expected to follow gold price fluctuations, with a continued bullish outlook [2] - The recent U.S. retail sales data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, indicating economic resilience and supporting silver demand [2][3] - The market is anticipating future interest rate cuts, which could lead to a bullish trend for silver before the cuts are realized [3] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Everbright Futures suggests that silver will continue to rise alongside gold, but warns of short-term volatility risks and recommends a strategy of buying on dips [2] - Ningzheng Futures emphasizes that silver is likely to experience a bullish trend before the anticipated interest rate cuts, with a focus on gold's impact on silver prices [3] - Industrial Futures notes that silver remains in a bullish configuration, advising to hold existing long positions and consider new purchases on price corrections [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, with a high probability of a 25 basis points or 50 basis points cut, while a 75 basis points cut would exceed expectations [2] - The Fed's previous rate cut cycle lasted only three to four months, with a total reduction of 100 basis points, indicating a stronger need for rate cuts this year compared to last year [6] - Market predictions suggest that by mid-2026, the terminal rate may drop below 3%, alleviating the high interest payment burden in the U.S. [6] Group 2 - The distinction between preventive rate cuts and recessionary rate cuts is significant, with preventive cuts being less frequent and less impactful compared to recessionary cuts, which tend to last longer and have a greater magnitude [6] - The longest rate cut cycle historically lasted 40 months, while the shortest was less than two weeks, with average cycles typically ranging from 12 to 25 months [6] Group 3 - A new rate cut cycle by the Fed may lead to a decline in the attractiveness of the U.S. dollar, potentially causing a drop in the dollar index, which could benefit assets like gold, industrial metals, real estate, and stocks [7] - Gold is expected to benefit directly from a declining dollar, as it typically has an inverse relationship with the dollar, and it also serves as a hedge against inflation [7] Group 4 - Emerging market stocks are likely to benefit more than other markets during a new Fed rate cut cycle, as a declining dollar can lead to capital inflows into these markets [8] - High dividend-paying assets may see increased attractiveness as terminal rates decline, making them more appealing to investors [8] Group 5 - The real estate market is expected to recover due to Fed rate cuts, particularly benefiting real estate companies with significant overseas debt, as their repayment pressures will decrease [9] - However, the recovery of the real estate market will depend on various factors beyond just interest rates, including the establishment of a new upward trend [9] - The market has partially priced in the benefits of the Fed's expected rate cuts, suggesting that the actual impact may not be as pronounced if the cuts align with market expectations [9]

Group 1: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.19% to 839.74 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.41% to 10,043.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.13% to 3,729.90 US dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.01% to 42.92 US dollars/ounce [1] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.04%, and the US dollar index was reported at 96.65 [1] - For precious metals, prices and trading volume data for various contracts such as Au(T+D), London Gold, SPDR Gold ETF, Ag(T+D), London Silver, SLV Silver ETF, etc., showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3] - Detailed data on gold and silver prices, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other aspects of COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc., were provided, along with changes and historical quantiles [5] Group 2: Market Outlook - The key retail data released yesterday exceeded market expectations, suppressing the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The month-on-month value of US retail sales in August was 0.6%, significantly exceeding the expected 0.2%. After the data was released, precious metal prices declined in the short term [1] - The most important event currently influencing the Fed's monetary policy is the Fed's interest rate meeting early tomorrow morning. The strong retail data will reduce the probability of an overseas recession in the medium term. If the Fed cuts interest rates, it will be a "preventive interest rate cut" rather than a "recessionary interest rate cut," which is a more significant positive factor for silver with strong industrial attributes [1] Group 3: Historical Performance and Current Situation - Historically, gold has benefited from the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, while silver price increases have been driven by expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy [2] - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting has marked the beginning of a new round of interest rate cut cycles by the Fed. The possibility of Hassett becoming the Fed Chairman means a fundamental change in the nature of the Fed's monetary policy, shifting from a decision based on employment and inflation data to a policy tool of the US President. Both in terms of expectations and reality, the current macro - background is favorable for the price increase of precious metals, especially silver [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 816 - 860 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9,710 - 10,800 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 5: Graphical Analysis - Multiple graphs were presented, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and the US dollar index, actual interest rates; the relationship between Shanghai Gold price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai Gold; the relationship between COMEX silver price, trading volume, and open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai Silver; the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and prices; the total positions of gold and silver ETFs; and the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [7][9][11]