（来源：福能期货） 来源：福能期货 仍存,期权可逢低头入看涨期权午币价差策略。 1、近期美联储三把手威廉姆斯、理事沃勒及戴利相继发表鸽派发言,提振 市场对于美联储12月降息预期,美联储12月降息预期骤然升温。 2、9月非农就业意外大增11.9万人,失业率却升至四年来最高的4.4%,非 农就业数据喜忧参半。 3、中长期来看,受全球政治经济不确定、美元信用体系冲击等因素影响下, 金价牛市基础仍存。建议前期多单可逢高减持,底仓可考虑买入浅虚值看 跌期权进行保护。 品种解析(仅供参考) 铜:三季度多家矿企再度下调年度生产计划,铜矿供应下降到负值。下游对 86000元/吨以下价格接受度较高,并且随着下游企业的点价增多,部分此前 加工端的卖空套保头寸也得以平仓,预计短期铜价偏强震荡运行。 氧化铝/电解铝:当前氧化铝价格触已触及现金成本,但氧化铝仍未出现实质 性减产,基本面维持偏弱格局。在短期供应端暂无新增扰动因素的背景下, 预计期价仍将以偏弱整理为主。电解铝方面,海外电解铝厂减产21万吨及预 计明年3月再度减产37万吨的预期加剧了海外铝供需紧张的担忧,叠加国内库 存仍在去化,预计短期沪铝下方支撑较强。 铅:供需矛盾缓和, ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and rising inflation, along with dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, have increased expectations for a rate cut in December, leading to a rise in gold prices [1] - As of the market close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.78% to $4126.3 per ounce, while the China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.73% and the Gold Stock ETF (159562) rose by 1.91% [1] - The data released shows that the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, with core PPI increasing by 0.1%, indicating a notable acceleration in inflation [1] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales grew by 0.2% month-on-month in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of positive growth but significantly slowing down and falling short of market expectations [1] - The decline in auto sales for the first time in four months further reinforces the market's expectations for a rate cut in December [1] - Analysts from CITIC Futures noted that the weakening consumer data solidifies expectations for monetary easing, while ongoing uncertainties in the Russia-Ukraine and Middle East situations support safe-haven demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December is rising, which is supporting the bullish sentiment in gold prices despite some short-term fluctuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On November 25, international gold prices fluctuated, opening at $4134.54 per ounce and trading within a range of $4120 to $4152, ultimately closing at $4130.55, down $3.99 or 0.0975% [1][3]. - The day saw a trading range of $49.19, with a low of $4109.87 and a high of $4159.06 [1]. Economic Indicators - Weak retail sales data and persistent inflation pressures are contributing to the potential upward movement in gold prices [4]. - Upcoming economic data, including initial jobless claims and durable goods orders, are expected to create volatility in gold prices, with a focus on the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicating economic weakness [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating a potential for a rebound, with expectations of reaching $4300 in the near term [9]. - The daily chart shows gold maintaining support above the 30-day moving average, with bullish sentiment prevailing [11]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve, which could further support gold prices, suggesting that any short-term pullbacks may present buying opportunities [7][9]. - Historical trends indicate that corrections during rate-cutting cycles often lead to favorable entry points for investors [7].

具体来看，美国商务部25日发布数据显示，美国9月份零售销售额环比增长0.2%，低于市场预期的0.4% 和8月份的0.6%。 同时，美国劳工部25日发布数据显示，美国9月份生产者价格指数环比上涨0.3%，而8月份则意外下降 0.1%。 转自：新华财经 汇丰银行表示，尽管近期市场波动，但由于各国央行和散户投资者的强劲需求，黄金价格仍保持上涨趋 势。 新华财经纽约11月25日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价 25日下跌5美元，收于每盎司4165.2美元，跌幅为0.12%。 当日早盘金价一度触及11月14日以来的高点，因发布的美国经济数据喜忧参半，叠加美联储官员近期的 讲话，支持了对12月美联储继续降息的预期。 美国自动数据处理公司25日发布报告显示，截至11月8日的四周内，美国私营企业平均每周裁员13500 人，较前一周大幅增加。 同日美国人口普查局发布数据显示，美国8月份企业库存环比持平，基本符合预期。但美国全国房地产 经纪人协会（NAR）发布的数据显示，美国10月份待售房屋销量较9月份增长1.9%，但较去年同期下跌 了0.4%。 另外，世界大型企业联合会25日发布的数据 ...

I think that the economy calls for interest rate cuts. I think the economy calls for large interest rate cuts to get monetary policy to neutral as quickly as we can. Monetary policy is exerting, you know, restriction on the economy.It's holding the economy back. It's pushing the employment the unemployment rate gradually upward. And I don't think that's appropriate given the economic outlook.So, I think it's the right thing to cut interest rates rather quickly. The chorus for more Fed action on rate cuts is ...

黄金技术面分析：黄金昨天大涨之后，今天短线调整，不过整体来说黄金还是高位偏强势的震荡，还是 有望继续上涨，那么黄金能冲击4200吗？ 黄金4小时级别来看，目前存在着高点不断上移，低点不断上移的趋势，但是在4小时级别拉一根黄金分 割线来看，黄金上方受到0.618的压制，也就是上方受到4155的压制，开始下跌，但是下方受到顶底转 换的支撑，也就是4110的位置，最终收线是在4110之上，所以今天需关注4110以及下方整数关口4100的 支撑，可以尝试做多，更多推荐4100的位置。MACD指标来看，快慢线前期处于粘合状态，但是在昨 晚上美联储降息预期升温的时候迎来发散，今天晚上美盘有可能持续发散，需关注上方4155的破位，如 果破位，即将到达4200的位置。 1小时级别均线持续向上散发保持多头排列，回顾日内黄金走势，整体保持上涨格局，短线受阻4150- 4160区域回撤，这里需要主要的是，黄金突破上涨一路基本没有大的回撤动作，欧盘回落也仅仅是回踩 4110一线之后就继续上涨，短线继续保持上涨态势，美盘回落4100上继续逢低做多即可。上方关键的压 制位与4小时级别相同，都是4155的位置，但是今天一天并没有向下回踩4 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in the equity market, with the Wande All A index rising by 1.24% and a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 858 billion yuan compared to the previous week [1] - The U.S. stock market showed a significant rebound, with the Nasdaq index increasing by 2.69%, attributed to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2] - The report highlights a strong performance in the technology sector, particularly with Google’s stock rising by 6.31% due to its AI strategy [2] - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks reached 112 billion HKD, indicating confidence in the recovery trend of the Hong Kong market [4] Equity Market Summary - The report notes that the ChiNext index experienced a brief rise before a sustained decline, suggesting ongoing market divergence regarding upward momentum [3] - The light module sector saw a significant increase of 8.21%, driven by released demand following a cautious investment attitude [2][3] - The report suggests that the market is still in a consensus-building phase, with investors cautious about the potential for further declines in the U.S. market and geopolitical tensions [3] Bond Market Summary - The bond market experienced volatility, with long-term interest rates showing limited upward movement initially, followed by a sell-off in long bonds later in the day [4][5] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the bond market is weak, with adjustments in long-duration bonds being influenced by market news [6] - The net redemption strength for bond funds was reported at -0.09, indicating manageable outflows compared to previous significant redemption points [5] Commodity Market Summary - The commodity market showed signs of recovery, particularly in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.48% and 2.75% respectively [6] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded by 4.47%, driven by strong demand and expectations of supply recovery [7] - The report notes a decline in coking coal prices due to increased supply and reduced demand from steel and coke enterprises [8]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected slowdown in U.S. retail sales growth highlights a decrease in consumer spending amid a weakening labor market and temporary inflation caused by tariffs, yet the resilience in retail sales supports the narrative of a "Goldilocks" economic environment in the U.S. [1] Retail Sales Data - In September, U.S. retail sales showed a modest increase of 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.4% growth, following a strong 0.6% increase in August. Excluding autos and gas, sales rose only 0.1% [5][6] - Among 13 categories, 8 recorded growth, primarily in gas stations and personal care stores, while auto sales declined for the first time in four months, and spending on electronics, clothing, and sports goods also decreased [6][8] Consumer Behavior - The data indicates that middle and low-income consumers are becoming more cautious due to rising inflation and employment challenges, leading to a pause in spending [5][7] - Retailers like Walmart and TJX have noted that shoppers are increasingly seeking discounts and essential goods, while Home Depot has warned of delayed large home purchases [7] Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the OBBBA tax cuts from the Trump administration will significantly boost economic growth starting in 2026, alongside the temporary nature of inflation from tariffs and ongoing AI infrastructure investments by tech giants [1] - The NRF forecasts a record number of shoppers during the upcoming Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping weekend, which could provide a significant boost to the U.S. economy in Q4 and 2026, as consumer spending accounts for 60%-70% of GDP [9][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following the retail data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 80% probability of a rate cut according to CME FedWatch Tool [3][4][7] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to cut rates, reflecting concerns over consumer affordability [7]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected slowdown in U.S. retail sales growth highlights a cautious consumer spending environment amid a weakening labor market and temporary inflation due to tariffs, reinforcing the narrative of a "Goldilocks" soft landing for the economy [1][5][9] Retail Sales Data - In September, U.S. retail sales rose by only 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of the expected 0.4% increase, following a strong 0.6% growth in August [5][6] - Excluding autos and gas, sales increased by just 0.1%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending momentum [5][6] - The "control group" sales, a key indicator for GDP calculations, declined by 0.1%, marking the first drop in five months [8] Consumer Behavior - The data suggests that middle and low-income consumers are feeling the pressure from inflation and employment challenges, leading to more cautious spending [5][7] - High-income consumers continue to support overall spending, but there are signs of strain among lower-income shoppers, with many seeking discounts and essential goods [7][9] Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley economists predict that the OBBBA tax cuts and the temporary nature of inflation from tariffs will contribute to a strong economic growth effect starting in 2026, supporting the "Goldilocks" narrative [1] - The upcoming Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping events are expected to significantly boost consumer spending, which accounts for 60%-70% of U.S. GDP [9][10] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Following the retail data release, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with an 80% probability of a cut according to CME FedWatch Tool [3][4][7] - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the decision to cut rates, reflecting concerns over consumer affordability [7]