去年这时候，我跟朋友们说得最多的一句话是"拿得住就行"。 回头看，确实对——只要没被震下车，AI、高股息、黄金，随便拿一个，收益都不差。 但今年开年这一个月，你有没有发现一个变化：市场变得"难做"了。 不是不涨，是涨得让人心慌——今天追进去，明天就回调；刚割了肉，又拉起来。板块轮动快得像电风 扇，赚钱效应还在，但节奏一错，就两头挨打。 所以今年我给自己的关键词，换成了四个字：谨慎乐观。 这就是分化——资金在用脚投票，只认实锤，不认故事。 所以今年要想赚钱，光靠"拿得住"不够了。你得问自己三个问题： 别急着划走，我知道很多人一听到"谨慎"就觉得是看空。不是的。恰恰相反，我对后市的判断，比去年 更乐观——大行情还处在初期，后面空间巨大。 但为什么还要"谨慎"？ 因为行情的形态变了。去年是普涨，水涨船高，只要在场就能赚钱。今年是分化，水还在，但船开始分 道扬镳。有的船能借着产业趋势一路向北，比如AI算力、光模块、存储芯片，订单排到年底，业绩看 得见摸得着；有的船，全靠情绪推着走，涨得快跌得更快，比如那些蹭概念的AI应用、没有核心技术 的机器人公司。 你看港股那边，智谱一天跌22%，MiniMax跌13%。 为什么？ ...

Global Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,082, up 2.53% for the day and 5.66% year-to-date, driven by strong performances from major stocks like Tencent and Hong Kong Exchanges [3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 3.34%, indicating a renewed interest in technology stocks [3] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of approximately HKD 20.2 billion, highlighting a shift towards "core assets + technology" allocation [3] - The offshore RMB strengthened, breaking through 6.89, nearing a three-year high, amidst calls from the Ministry of Commerce for the U.S. to lift unilateral tariffs [3] Sector Performance - The Hang Seng Financial Index increased by 2.29%, with a year-to-date rise of 8.12% [2] - The Hang Seng Industrial Index rose by 2.77%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 3.03% [2] - The Hang Seng Real Estate Index saw a 2.25% increase, with a significant year-to-date rise of 23.95% [2] - The Hang Seng Utilities Index gained 0.90%, with a year-to-date increase of 9.27% [2] U.S. Market Reaction - Major U.S. indices, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq, all fell over 1%, influenced by renewed tariff uncertainties and concerns over AI impacts [3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped over 5 basis points to 4.02%, marking a near three-month low as investors sought safe-haven assets [3] - Gold prices surged over 2%, while silver rose approximately 4%, reflecting a flight to safety amid market volatility [3] Investment Sentiment - The report indicates a cautious sentiment among investors due to the resurgence of tariff risks and AI-related fears, leading to significant sell-offs in high-valuation sectors [3] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies has weakened investor confidence in U.S. assets, contributing to a decline in the U.S. dollar index over two consecutive days [3]

Key TakeawaysWall Street is aggressively selling off software stocks as investors fear that advanced AI tools, such as Anthropic’s Claude, will disrupt traditional SaaS business models and erode profit margins.China’s ChiNext Index surged 2%, leading a broader rally in Chinese growth stocks as domestic sentiment improves despite volatility in neighboring Hong Kong markets.The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) climbed above 0.5950, capitalising on a weakening US Dollar driven by renewed uncertainty over President Tru ...

On February 19, Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize-winning economist and ‘The Road to Freedom’ author, joined CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the state of the economy and argued that conditions are poor and likely to deteriorate. Challenging more optimistic views, Stiglitz addressed the debate over why tariffs have not sparked an immediate inflationary explosion. He explained that economists must consider the counterfactual: what inflation would have been without the tariffs. He noted that while inflation was ...

【中信策略】代码膨胀，实物稀缺 1）CodingAgent的爆发使大家对全球代码规模的扩张及传统软件应用被颠覆产生了极大的焦虑，大量工作流将快 速被AI替代。 短期内能源的增长远低于代码和token消耗总量的增长。 支付能力短期跟不上产品扩张和算力消耗，我们大概率会经历一个全社会代码膨胀、执行力过剩、竞争加剧和资 本投入回报受损的过程。 2）我们根 【中信策略】代码膨胀，实物稀缺 1）CodingAgent的爆发使大家对全球代码规模的扩张及传统软件应用被颠覆产生了极大的焦虑，大量工作流将快 速被AI替代。 2026年以来美股两组合的累计收益差距扩大了64个百分点，而A股两者分化尚不明显。 随着全球市场的联动以及流动性溢价的消散，我们认为中国资产最终也会反映"实物稀缺"和"代码膨胀"的分化。 短期内能源的增长远低于代码和token消耗总量的增长。 支付能力短期跟不上产品扩张和算力消耗，我们大概率会经历一个全社会代码膨胀、执行力过剩、竞争加剧和资 本投入回报受损的过程。 2）我们根据不同行业物理依赖度和监管/情感壁垒，划分为受损区（低依赖、低壁垒）、重塑区（低依赖、高壁 垒）、堡垒区（高依赖、高壁垒）、受益区（高 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 海外模型大厂融资落地，算力链条迎来新动 力 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2026 年 02 月 24 日 证券分析师 黄诗涛 执业证书：S0600521120004 huangshitao@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -4% 2% 8% 14% 20% 26% 32% 38% 44% 2025/2/24 2025/6/22 2025/10/18 2026/2/13 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《地产链有望继续震荡向上》 2026-02-08 《建筑、建材 2025Q4 公募基金持仓 低位回升，持仓集中度有所下降》 2026-02-08 东吴证券研究所 1 / 19 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周（2026.2.7–2026.2.13，下同）：本周建筑材料板块（SW）涨跌幅 2.86%，同期沪深 300、万得全 A 指数涨跌幅分别为 0.36%、1.11%，超 额收益分别为 2.50%、1.74%。 ◼ 大宗建材基本面与高频数据：（1）水泥：本周全国高标水泥市场价格为 ...

2025年，我国造船业三大指标继续领跑全球——全球船东看向中国 数据来源：中国船舶工业行业协会 2025年，中国造船业再次交出了一份亮眼的成绩单：造船业三大指标继续领跑全球，连续16年保持世界 第一。 工业和信息化部近日发布的数据显示，2025年，中国全年造船完工量5369万载重吨，占世界总量的 56.1%；新接订单量10782万载重吨，占世界总量的69.0%；手持订单量27442万载重吨，占世界总量的 66.8%，再创新高。这不仅是一组亮眼的贸易数据，更是中国制造业深度融入全球产业分工、服务世界 经济的生动写照。从"造船大国"到"服务全球"，中国造船业正以开放的姿态，为全球航运业提供着不可 或缺的"中国动力"。 近九成船舶出口 2025年，从欧洲到东南亚，从北美到中东，国际船东纷纷将订单投向中国船厂。 中船集团广船国际为新加坡EPS建造的11.1万吨大型液化天然气（LNG）双燃料原油/成品油船首制 船"ATLANTIC PEARL"号签字交船；山船重工为希腊Dynacom公司建造的11.5万吨冰区加强型成品油轮 与为Arcadia公司建造的首艘11.5万吨原油轮近日同步开工；希腊船东Danaos和德国船东A ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the impact of AI on the economy and employment, highlighting a potential crisis in global intelligence by 2028 [1] - The term "ghost GDP" is introduced, referring to economic output that does not circulate in the real economy, indicating a disconnect between reported economic growth and actual consumer activity [1] Core Insights and Arguments - AI capabilities are improving, leading to increased layoffs in white-collar jobs, which in turn reduces consumer spending and puts pressure on corporate profits [1] - Companies are responding to profit pressures by investing further in AI, creating a cycle of continuous AI capability enhancement [1] - Nominal GDP is experiencing mid to high single-digit growth, driven by AI agents that do not require breaks, sick leave, or insurance, thus pushing productivity to new highs [2] - There is a growing wealth disparity, as those who hold computational power are becoming richer while real wage growth is collapsing [3] Additional Important Content - The initial wave of layoffs began in early 2026, as human jobs were replaced by AI, leading to expanded profit margins and unexpectedly high corporate earnings, which subsequently drove stock prices up [1] - The S&P 500 approached 8000 and the Nasdaq surpassed 30000 in October 2026, indicating significant market performance during this period [1]

招商电新】AIDC观点更新20260223 近两天复盘了一些春节期间发生的变化，感叹一句：Everything is stillallabout AI. 春节期间发生的几大事件如下： 1）新模型轮番登场、openclaw等应用场景带动tokens的使用量暴增，AI资本开支正循环逻辑强化。 2）AI需求爆发，带着上游原材料库存见底，各类产品涨价（存储、mlc 其他：美国储能OBBB法案细化等 ➡投资方面的思考： 近两天复盘了一些春节期间发生的变化，感叹一句：Everything is stillallabout AI. 春节期间发生的几大事件如下： 1）新模型轮番登场、openclaw等应用场景带动tokens的使用量暴增，AI资本开支正循环逻辑强化。 2）AI需求爆发，带着上游原材料库存见底，各类产品涨价（存储、mlcc、光纤等） 3）cybercab量产落地，无人驾驶时代进一步接近 4）机器人春晚表现亮眼，正如海外报告指出的：硬件能力惊艳、AI能力待验证 5）春节前GEV、VRT等财报表现亮眼，缺电液冷等逻辑经财报再一次强化 招商电新】AIDC观点更新20260223 第一，国内链要重视：相较于前期我们关注 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Gaming Industry Key Companies and Highlights - **Century Huatong**: Achieved notable rankings in the global mobile game export list for January, with "Whiteout Survival" at second, "Kingshot" at third, "TTM" at tenth, and "Truck Star" at twenty-ninth. The company has a high overseas game revenue share, with new games "TTM" and "Truck Star" showing significant growth in December and January [1][2] - **Giant Network**: The game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to innovate during the Spring Festival, with a daily active user (DAU) surpassing 100 million by January 31. The new game "Famous Generals Kill" was launched on December 19 [2] - **37 Interactive Entertainment**: The mini-program game "Survival for 33 Days" has consistently ranked in the top five, with the RO in Hong Kong and Macau launched on January 15. The company has a rich pipeline of new products [2] - **Kongzhong Network**: The "Legend Box" is expected to create platform growth, and the AI companion application "EVE" is scheduled for launch on March 14 [2] - **G-bits**: Launched a new Three Kingdoms-themed SLG game "Nine Muwu" on December 18 [2] - **Perfect World**: The key game "Yihuan" has completed its third test with high ratings on Bilibili and Taptap [2] - **Xindong Company**: Launched "Xindong Town" overseas on January 8 and "Diver Dave" on February 6 [2] Market Opportunities - **Overseas Expansion and Female Market Growth**: The Chinese market is projected to generate sales revenue of 168 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 14.08%, with a user base of 679 million, up 0.72% year-on-year [2] - **Global Market Trends**: The mobile gaming market is shifting from user growth to consumption power enhancement, with projected revenues of $81.7 billion in 2024, reaching a three-year high. Chinese self-developed games are expected to generate $9.5 billion in overseas revenue in the first half of 2025, an 11% year-on-year increase [3] - **Female-oriented Games**: The market size for female-oriented games is expected to reach 8 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 124.1%, significantly outpacing the overall market [3] Policy and Technological Impact - **Regulatory Environment**: By 2025, the issuance of domestic game licenses is expected to exceed 140 per month, with a shift towards industry support and encouragement for game exports and gaming as a new consumption driver [3] - **AI and Technology Integration**: The application of AI in gaming has progressed significantly since 2023, enhancing product development and advertising efficiency. Emotional companion games are highlighted as a promising direction for AI gaming, with a focus on "EVE" from Kongzhong Network [3][4] - **Investment in Emerging Technologies**: Companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Century Huatong are investing in brain-machine interface technologies, while Giant Network collaborates with Volcano Engine on AI NPCs [4]