Group 1: Electricity Market - In the first ten months of this year, the total electricity market transaction volume reached 54,920 billion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.9% and accounting for 63.7% of the total electricity consumption, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The intra-provincial transaction volume was 41,659 billion kilowatt-hours, up 6.6% year-on-year, while the inter-provincial and inter-regional transaction volume was 13,261 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% [2] - Green electricity transaction volume reached 2,627 billion kilowatt-hours, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 39.4% [2] Group 2: A-Share Market - On the 25th, the A-share market experienced a rally with nearly 4,300 stocks rising, and the ChiNext index increased by nearly 2%, previously rising over 3% [5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 844 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [5] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices rebounded above $4,100 per ounce, driven by dovish signals from key Federal Reserve officials, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rising from over 30% to 81.1% [9] - As of 25th, the December gold futures price was reported at $4,124.5 per ounce, reflecting a 0.74% increase [9] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Market - Sales of Oseltamivir surged by 237% over the past week due to a rapid increase in flu activity, with the H3N2 strain being more transmissible this year [10] - The sales of another antiviral, Maviroc, also saw a significant increase of 180% [10] Group 5: Corporate Developments - The company behind the "Fugui Bird" brand announced that the brand has been taken over by a new operating entity, which continues all business activities, clarifying that the bankruptcy of "Fugui Bird Co., Ltd." is an independent corporate action with no legal or operational ties to the current brand [11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have stabilized below $4150, reaching a new high in over a week, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with an implied probability of about 80% according to the CME Group FedWatch tool [3][4]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, are providing additional support for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. Price Movements - Gold has reached a one-and-a-half-week high but has struggled to maintain upward momentum, with slight increases observed during the European session [3]. - The dollar index remains near multi-month highs, which has limited the upside for gold prices despite the dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve [3]. Technical Analysis - ICMarkets indicates that strong overnight gains have validated multiple support levels, including an upward trend line extending from late October and the 200-period EMA on the 4-hour chart [6]. - There is a significant possibility for gold prices to push towards the $4177-$4178 range and challenge the $4200 psychological level [6]. - If gold prices fall below the $4132-$4130 range, it may present a buying opportunity, with strong support expected around $4110-$4100 [6].

Core Viewpoint - Multiple fund managers have issued warnings regarding the premium risk of their QDII funds, indicating that over 20 funds may be affected by secondary market trading price premiums, despite the majority showing strong performance this year [1][3]. Group 1: Premium Risk Warnings - On November 25, several fund management companies, including Huaxia, GF, and Huitianfu, announced premium risk warnings for their QDII funds, affecting more than 20 products [3]. - The funds involved track indices such as the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and MSCI US 50, with these indices showing significant gains of 18.38%, 18.07%, and 14% year-to-date, respectively [3]. - The warnings are not new; for instance, Huaxia Nomura Nikkei 225 ETF has issued premium risk alerts up to 30 times since November [3]. Group 2: Market Performance and Fund Management Actions - As of November 21, 92.16% of the 689 QDII funds reported positive returns this year, with some funds, like Huitianfu Hong Kong Advantage Mixed QDII, achieving returns exceeding 122% [6]. - In response to the premium risks, 165 QDII funds have suspended subscriptions or limited large subscriptions, with some funds imposing strict limits on subscription amounts [7][8]. - The tightening of QDII quotas has led to a supply-demand imbalance, contributing to the premium phenomenon as investors rush to buy into these funds [5][8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The premium risk is exacerbated by a failure in the arbitrage mechanism due to the suspension of the primary market for subscriptions and redemptions, making it difficult to correct the premiums quickly [5]. - High-frequency trading and speculative activities have further amplified price volatility in the QDII funds, particularly those allowing T+0 trading [5]. - Analysts suggest that investors should wait for market adjustments before purchasing QDII funds to avoid chasing high prices, while also being mindful of the overall market conditions and potential risks [8].

Core Viewpoint - The global copper prices are experiencing volatility due to liquidity pressures and market uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The market previously anticipated a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, but this expectation has dropped to around 40% due to emerging domestic issues in the U.S. [1] - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have intensified, complicating the central bank's ability to manage market expectations effectively [1] Group 2: Economic Influences - Recent events such as the U.S. government shutdown and delays in the release of key economic data have contributed to the current market volatility [1] - The end of the year is typically a time for institutions to realize profits, making the Federal Reserve's actions a catalyst for portfolio adjustments [1] Group 3: Commodity Market Impact - The fluctuations in policy expectations have led to a turbulent trading environment for commodities, particularly in the context of copper prices [1]

Market Overview - The cryptocurrency market capitalisation has risen by 1.5%, now standing at $3.1 trillion, marking a second consecutive day of increase [1] - On Tuesday morning, the market capitalisation rose back above $3 trillion, with 85 of the top 100 coins experiencing price increases [2] - The total crypto trading volume is currently at $144 billion [1] Price Movements - Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 0.7% to $87,692, while Ethereum (ETH) rose by 2.7% to $2,916 [2][3] - XRP recorded the highest increase among the top coins, up 7.9% to $2.23, followed by Solana (SOL) with a 4.5% increase to $136 [3][4] - Among the top 100 coins, 85 recorded increases, with Rain (RAIN) seeing a significant rise of 113% to $0.007829 [4] Market Sentiment and Influences - Market sentiment has improved after three days, although it remains in the extreme fear zone [2] - The increase in market activity is attributed to US stock gains and growing confidence in a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut in December [5] - Bitfinex analysts noted that the scale of loss realisation indicates how top-heavy the market had become [6] ETF Activity - On Monday, US BTC spot ETFs experienced outflows of $151.08 million, while ETH ETFs recorded inflows of $96.67 million [2] IPO Activity - Asia is witnessing an IPO boom, with Bitkub's Hong Kong listing plans potentially benefiting the overall market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation phase, with multiple long and short factors at play. The Fed's expectations boost copper prices, but uncertainties bring potential risks. The supply - side disturbances and structural support from the new energy sector provide bottom - line resilience [1][2]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend. Overseas supply shortages and low inventory levels will continue to provide support, while the domestic off - season demand restricts the upward price space. The zinc market may present mainly structural opportunities [3][4]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range. Although the inventory is at a high level, the firmness of polysilicon boosts the price of industrial silicon [5]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain high in the short term and fluctuate within a range in the medium term. The implementation of new energy - consumption standards will improve the supply - demand pattern [6]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain high in the short term and rise with oscillations in the medium term, despite high supply and inventory pressures [8]. - Refined tin prices are expected to remain high. Global tin ore supply shortages and low domestic processing fees provide support for tin prices [9][10]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Macro**: Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, and the probability of a December rate cut has increased again due to dovish remarks [1]. - **Supply**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, but long - term pressure may ease. Domestic smelters are in losses, leading to production restrictions. Overseas supply remains tight [1]. - **Demand**: Domestic copper product start - up rates have rebounded, with strong exports, but domestic demand is divided. New energy vehicles support copper demand, while high prices suppress downstream purchasing [1]. - **Inventory**: Global visible inventories show a differentiated trend, with LME inventories down 43% year - on - year and COMEX inventories up 3.5 times [1]. - **View and Strategy**: Intraday and medium - term views are both oscillatory, with an oscillatory operation strategy [1]. Zinc - **Macro**: Fed rate - cut expectations are divided, and the probability of a December rate cut has decreased. The US government shutdown risk has eased, but the impact on zinc prices is limited [3]. - **Supply**: Global zinc concentrate supply is tightening, with falling processing fees. Domestic imports have decreased, and domestic mine supply is also tightening [3]. - **Demand**: The pattern is "strong overseas, weak domestic". Galvanized sheet exports support zinc prices, while domestic demand improvement is limited [3]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory is at a historically low level, while domestic inventory is higher than last year [3]. - **View and Strategy**: Intraday and medium - term views are both oscillatory, with an oscillatory operation strategy and a strategy of selling wide - straddle option combinations [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: In October, China's industrial silicon output was 452,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.75% [5]. - **Demand**: In October, polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of November 20, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 548,000 tons, at a seven - year high [5]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - term view is range - bound (8,900 - 9,000), medium - term view is also range - bound (8,800 - 9,300), with a bullish strategy [5]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: In October, polysilicon output was 134,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [6]. - **Demand**: In October, China's silicon wafer output was 60.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 31.36% [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, the social inventory of polysilicon was 271,000 tons and is still accumulating [6]. - **Policy Impact**: New energy - consumption standards will reduce effective domestic polysilicon production capacity, improving the supply - demand pattern [6]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - term view is high - level operation (53,000 - 54,000), medium - term view is range - bound (50,000 - 60,000), with a bullish strategy [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Price**: On November 24, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) dropped 270 yuan to 92,100 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5,920 yuan in the past 5 days and 19,030 yuan in the past 30 days [8]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, China's battery - grade lithium carbonate output was 68,360 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67% [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 31, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 84,234 tons, still at a high level [8]. - **News Impact**: News of a lithium mine's potential复产 led to a limit - down in lithium carbonate futures on November 21 [8]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - term view is high - level operation (90,000 - 92,000), medium - term view is oscillatory upward (80,000 - 100,000), with a bullish strategy [8]. Refined Tin - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State's resumption of production is difficult, and Indonesia is cracking down on illegal tin mining, intensifying global tin ore supply shortages [9]. - **Processing Fee**: As of November 24, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Jiangxi was 8,000 yuan/ton, at a low level [10]. - **Inventory**: As of November 24, the SHFE tin inventory was 5,884 tons [10]. - **View and Strategy**: Short - and medium - term views are high - level operation (280,000 - 300,000), with a strategy of selling SN2601 - P - 260000 [9][10].

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年11月25日16时30分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡反弹，沪金主力收涨1.48%，沪银主力收涨2.75%。①核心逻辑，短期避险方面，中美会谈利空兑现，地缘异动风 险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。俄乌、中东等地缘异动风险仍存 。③货币属性方面，美联储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美国11月工厂活动降至四个月新低， 需求疲软导致库存积压。美国9月就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.4%。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市 场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至80%附近。美元指数和美债收益率下行遇阻偏强；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡 偏弱，人民币贬值利多内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's internal calls for interest rate cuts are rising again, with the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December at 81%. The precious metals market has strongly rebounded and broken through the previous shock range. In the short term, there are no clear positive factors in the precious metals market, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations may continue to fluctuate. Gold prices are likely to move in a range. In the long term, the US debt pressure is intensifying, investors' confidence in the US dollar is weakening, and gold is still attractive as a hedge against US dollar credit. The central bank's gold purchases also support long - term gold prices. The focus ranges are 920 - 960 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2602 contract and 11700 - 12500 yuan/kg for the Shanghai Silver 2602 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai Gold main contract closing price: 946.5 yuan/gram, up 16.18; Shanghai Silver main contract closing price: 12127 yuan/kg, up 319. - Shanghai Gold main contract open interest: 181169 lots, up 16549; Shanghai Silver main contract open interest: 366660 lots, up 19192. - Shanghai Gold main contract top 20 net positions: 110012 lots, up 3392; Shanghai Silver main contract top 20 net positions: 88690 lots, down 2786. - Gold warehouse receipts: 90423 kg, down 3; Silver warehouse receipts: 540572 kg, up 8273 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price: 925.39 yuan/gram, down 2.11; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price: 11818 yuan/kg, down 97. - Shanghai Gold main contract basis: - 4.93 yuan/gram, down 5.49; Shanghai Silver main contract basis: 10 yuan/kg, down 225 [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings: 1040.86 tons, up 0.29; Silver ETF holdings: 15511.81 tons, up 253.89. - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions: 231956 contracts, down 20952; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions: 46217 contracts, down 3522. - Total gold supply (quarterly): 1248.76 tons, up 42.73; Total silver supply (annually): 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4. - Total gold demand (quarterly): 1313.07 tons, up 86.25; Total global silver demand (annually): 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of gold: 22.26%, up 0.14; 40 - day historical volatility of gold: 28.43%, up 0.04. - At - the - money call option implied volatility of gold: 24.37%, up 2.28; At - the - money put option implied volatility of gold: 24.38%, up 2.29 [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US and Ukraine completed a new 19 - point peace agreement draft, but sensitive issues remain to be decided. European countries warned that an agreement cannot be quickly reached, and Russia said the peace plan is not constructive. - Fed Governor Waller advocated a December interest rate cut due to a weak labor market. San Francisco Fed President Daly supported a rate cut next month, believing the risk of a sudden deterioration in the job market is greater [2]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index rebounding for the second consecutive day, closing up 0.69% and surpassing 26,000 points at one point [2] - Southbound funds recorded a net inflow of approximately 11.2 billion HKD, with Alibaba receiving over 5.6 billion HKD in net purchases [2] Large Technology Stocks - Major technology stocks contributed significantly to the market's strong performance, with Baidu, Xiaomi, Kuaishou, Alibaba, NetEase, Meituan, and Tencent all closing higher [5][6] - Alibaba's trading volume reached 23.218 billion HKD, while Xiaomi's was 12.795 billion HKD [6] Precious Metals and Commodities - The expectation of a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy has led to increased interest in precious metals, with gold stocks gaining traction [10] - Notable increases were seen in companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and China Silver Group, which rose by 4.86% and 3.28% respectively [10][11] Autonomous Driving Sector - Stocks in the autonomous driving sector saw significant gains, with Hesai Technologies rising over 13% and Pony.ai increasing by 9.32% [12][13] - Recent contracts secured by Hesai and RoboSense with major automotive manufacturers indicate a growing investment in autonomous driving technology [13] Financial Sector - Major financial stocks experienced broad gains, with China Life and China Merchants Bank both rising over 2% [15][16] - Analysts predict a double-digit growth in new insurance premiums for 2026, driven by strong investment returns in Q3 [15] Airline Sector - Airline stocks faced significant pressure, with China Eastern Airlines dropping nearly 6% and other major airlines also declining [17][19] - A reported increase of approximately 56% in flight cancellations to Japan has negatively impacted ticket bookings, leading to a 29% decrease in future bookings compared to mid-November [18][19]

【#金价涨回4100美元#上方，#美元走软金价反弹#】受近期美联储重要官员连续释放的"鸽派"信号推 动，市场对美联储12月降息预期持续升温。25日，芝商所"美联储观察工具"最新数据显示，美联储12月 降息25个基点的预期概率已从上周的30%多，升至目前的81.1%。受此预期变化影响，美元走软，国际 金价延续反弹势头，25日欧洲交易时段涨回每盎司4100美元关口上方。截至北京时间25日16时42分，纽 商所12月黄金期价报每盎司4124.5美元，涨幅为0.74%。（总台央视记者 高岩） 来源：@央视财经微博 ...