光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心大幅反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 | | | | 55.94 美元/桶，涨幅 1.21%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.76 美元 | | | | 至 59.68 美元/桶，涨幅 1.29%。随后在电子盘时间，油价再度拉 | | | | 涨。SC2601 夜盘以 424.9 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.38%。 | | | | 特朗普下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，受此影响， | | | | 油价低位反弹。特朗普在社交媒体上发文说，认定委内瑞拉现政 | | | | 府是"外国恐怖组织"。近来，特朗普多次公开宣称，美国将开 | | | | 始对加勒比海地区的"毒贩"实施陆地打击，并提及委内瑞拉和 | | | 原油 | 哥伦比亚。一个星期前，美国在委内瑞拉海岸扣押了一艘受制裁 | 震荡 | | | 的油轮。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，上周美国原油库存减少，汽 | | | ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 南美地缘升温，油价短线反弹。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美地缘不确 | | | | 定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮，油价短线反弹；核心驱动：淡季供给 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油 | | ★ | | 激增，美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注 | | | | 变量：美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端油价短线反弹，中长期承压。成本端原油，短线有所反弹，大趋势 | | LPG | | 仍向下；供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 | | ★ | 空头反弹 | 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上 | | | 升。 | | | | | 期现共振下跌，LP 价差大幅收缩。停车比例小幅提升至 14%，LL 加权毛 | | L | | 利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯裂解超预期检修难度 | ...

摘要今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于980元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报981.61元/ 克，涨幅0.09%，最高触及984.03元/克，最低下探978.37元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四(12月18日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于980元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报981.61元/克，涨 幅0.09%，最高触及984.03元/克，最低下探978.37元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 17日俄罗斯总统普京出席俄国防部扩大会议时表示，俄方"将一如既往地准备谈判，并准备和平解决近 年来出现的所有问题"，虽未具体说明是哪些问题，但他指出2022年俄乌冲突升级的始作俑者并非俄罗 斯，"乌克兰的破坏势力受到西方支持，实际上是西方自己发动了这场战争，我们只是想结束它"。 意大利总理梅洛尼在议会再次重申，即使在组建欧洲多国部队的情况下，意大利也不会向乌克兰派兵。 梅洛尼表示，将继续支持乌克兰，因为一旦乌克兰崩溃，将对欧洲安全产生直接影响。她还呼吁谨慎使 用俄罗斯被冻结资产，并表示意大利支持继续冻结俄罗斯资产。 据报道，美国政府近期持续向欧盟成员国施加压力，意图在12 ...

普京：准备和平解决"近年来出现的所有问题" 当地时间17日，美国参议院以67票赞成、30票反对的投票结果，确认亿万富翁私人宇航员贾里德·艾萨克曼担任美国国 家航空航天局（NASA）第15任局长。 当地时间12月17日，在美国总统特朗普下令全面封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮后，市场对地缘政治风险担忧升 温，推动油价走高，国际原油价格上涨近2%。 （央视新闻、新华社） 美俄代表本周末或在迈阿密举行会谈 俄罗斯总统普京17日出席俄国防部扩大会议时说，俄方"将一如既往地准备谈判，并准备和平解决近年来出现的所有问 题"。 两位知情人士当地时间12月17日透露称，美国和俄罗斯官员预计将于本周末在美国迈阿密举行会晤。相关计划仍在制 定中。 一位知情人士透露，俄罗斯代表团预计包括俄罗斯直接投资基金总裁德米特里耶夫，美方代表团则包括美国中东问题 特使威特科夫和特朗普女婿库什纳。 美封锁委内瑞拉油轮，国际油价上涨近2% 美参议院确认亿万富翁艾萨克曼出任美航天局局长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The situation in Venezuela's oil sector is becoming increasingly critical due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions, which may lead to a significant reduction in oil production and impact global oil prices [3][6]. Group 1: Oil Storage and Production - Venezuela's main oil storage facilities and docked tankers are rapidly filling with crude oil, expected to reach maximum storage capacity in about 10 days [3]. - Following the seizure of a tanker and U.S. plans to block other sanctioned vessels, Venezuela's oil storage capacity is under severe strain, potentially forcing the state-owned oil company to shut down some oil wells [5]. - The Amuay refinery, Venezuela's largest, has resumed production after a power outage, with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels, crucial for domestic fuel supply and oil exports [5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Prices - Geopolitical risk concerns have escalated, driving oil prices higher, with international oil prices rising over 3% following U.S. President Trump's order to fully block all sanctioned tankers entering or leaving Venezuela [6]. - Trinidad and Tobago's Prime Minister stated that the country does not intend to get involved in the U.S.-Venezuela conflict, emphasizing national security and interests [7]. - The Trinidad and Tobago government has allowed U.S. military aircraft to temporarily use its airports, which Venezuela criticizes as part of a hostile agenda against it [9]. Group 3: International Reactions - UN Secretary-General Guterres has called for restraint from both the U.S. and Venezuela, urging adherence to international law to maintain regional peace [10]. - President Trump has labeled the current Venezuelan government as a "foreign terrorist organization" and ordered the blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers [10].

Report Summary of Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil futures contract 2602 is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being volatile and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle Viewpoints - For the crude oil 2602 contract, the short - term trend (within one week) is volatile, the medium - term trend (two weeks to one month) is volatile, and the intraday trend is strong [1]. Price and Market Conditions - Saudi Arabia has lowered the selling price of its main crude oil varieties to Asia to the lowest level in five years, and global crude oil inventories are continuously accumulating, indicating increasing supply pressure in the crude oil market. The weakening of the crude oil market's monthly spread and refined oil cracking spread also shows a weak supply - demand structure in the oil market [5]. Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela has increased the geopolitical risk premium [1][5]. Market Performance - On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a volatile and strong trend with a slight rebound. It is expected that on Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures will maintain a strong pattern [5].

汇通财经APP讯——在2025年年末的全球金融市场中，价格犹如脱缰野马般强劲上扬，受到美国就业数据疲软、美联储降息预期重燃以及地缘政治紧张局势 升级等多重因素的合力推动，周三（12月17日）黄金价格继续攀升，盘中最高曾触及4348.70美元/盎司，收报4338美元/盎司附近，涨幅接近1%。与此同 时，价格更是突破66美元大关，创下历史新高66.88美元/盎司，铂金也触及逾17年最高点。周四（12月18日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于 4340美元/盎司附近，本交易日重点关注特朗普的全国讲话和延迟公布的美国11月CPI数据。 就业数据疲软点燃降息预期 美国11月就业数据发布后，市场情绪迅速转向乐观，尽管新增就业岗位达到6.4万个，超出预期，但失业率意外升至4.6%，创下2021年9月以来最高水平。这 一数据揭示了劳动力市场的潜在疲软迹象，投资者普遍解读为美联储可能加速降息的信号。黄金作为非孽息资产，在低利率环境下往往表现出色，因为降息 会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而吸引更多资金流入。 除了经济数据的影响，国际地缘政治局势的恶化也为黄金提供了强劲支撑。美国总统特朗普周二下令封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of the U.S. decision to fully block all oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, which has led to an increase in international oil prices by nearly 2% due to heightened geopolitical risk concerns [1]. Group 1 - On December 17, the U.S. President Trump ordered a complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers related to Venezuela [1]. - Following this announcement, Brent crude oil futures rose by 99 cents, approximately 1.7%, reaching $59.91 per barrel [1]. - West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased by 97 cents, about 1.8%, to $56.24 per barrel [1].

谷歌与Meta Platform 片软件支持 亚马逊宣布重组人工智 (国际宏观) 地缘政治扰动推动油价 【市场回顾】 北京时间12月18日，日韩股市开盘齐跌；甲骨文百亿美元数据中心融资受阻；谷歌正与Meta Platforms合作，扩大对AI芯片的软件支持；亚马逊宣布重组其 人工智能相关项目团队；市场对地缘政治风险担忧升温，推动油价走高。 甲骨文百亿美元数据中 当地时间12月17日，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.02%报24072.25点，法国CAC40指数跌0.25%报8086.05点，英国富时100指数涨0.92%报 9774.32点。 【个股资讯】 据英国金融时报，甲骨文在AI基础设施扩张计划上遭遇重大挫折，其最大的数据中心合作伙伴Blue Owl Capital已决定不再支持一项价值100亿美元的数据中 心项目。甲骨文随后回应称，该项目的谈判仍然按计划进行，整体推进情况符合预期，且交易中不包括Blue Owl Capital。 谷歌正与Meta Platforms合作，扩大对AI芯片的软件支持。谷歌和Meta Platforms项目旨在让TPU在AI程序构建工具PyTorch上良好运行 ...

Market Overview - On December 17, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.47%, S&P 500 down 1.16%, and Nasdaq down 1.81% [1] - Major technology stocks experienced significant declines, with Oracle dropping over 5%, Tesla down over 4%, and Nvidia down nearly 4%, resulting in a market value loss of $164.8 billion (approximately 1160.8 billion RMB) [2][3] Sector Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 3.78%, with notable declines in ASML, ARM, AMD, Broadcom, TSMC, and Intel, all dropping over 3% [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index decreased by 0.73%, with individual stocks like Huya down over 4% and several others, including NIO and Li Auto, down over 3% [3] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil prices surged, with an increase of over 3% during trading, closing up more than 2.9% due to geopolitical concerns following U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers [4] - Silver reached a new historical high at $66 per ounce, while gold was reported at $4338 per ounce [5] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping to $86,104 per coin, reflecting a decrease of 1.87% [6] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 150,000 traders experienced liquidation in the crypto market [5][7] Economic Indicators - According to CME data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is 24.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 75.6% [7]