Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of soybean meal futures will follow the price of US soybean futures and continue the phased rebound trend, and the overall market is expected to be volatile and strong. The price of palm oil futures will be volatile and strong as well [6][8]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [6][7] - **Core Logic**: Optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations enhance the expectation of good US soybean exports. Entering the weather - sensitive period, potential extreme weather risks in US soybean - producing areas this summer make US soybean prices easy to rise and hard to fall. The trading logic of the domestic soybean meal market mainly depends on import costs, so short - term soybean meal futures prices will follow the US soybean futures prices [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and strong; Reference view: oscillating and strong [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Board will release monthly data on June 10. Expected moderate growth in production will push up inventory. There is export competition between Indonesia and Malaysia. In China, increased palm oil purchases will supplement supply and raise inventory. So the short - term palm oil futures prices will be volatile and strong [8]. Other Information - For soybean meal 2509, factors affecting the market include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - For soybean oil 2509, influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]. - For palm 2509, factors are Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7].

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 6 月 9 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 6 月 6 日万得全 A 缩量下跌，节后三连涨的走势暂时终止，指数现货方面， 沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.09%、0.12%、0.14%、 0.23%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期货方面，期货表现整体强于现货，IF、IC 主力合约分别收涨 0.09%、0.03%，IH、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.01%、0.02%（按 前一交易日收盘价为基准计算）。 分板块来看，有色金 ...

Market Overview - The Wande All A index closed at 5156.21 on June 6, 2025, up 1.61% from May 30, 2025, while the China Convertible Bond index rose by 1.08% during the same period[1] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wande All A index has increased by 2.68%, and the China Convertible Bond index has risen by 4.67%[1] U.S.-China Relations - The recent U.S.-China summit led to a positive market response, with expectations of easing trade tensions, although the U.S. raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%[2][34] - Non-farm payrolls data showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above expectations, leading to a decrease in interest rate cut expectations for the year[35] Investment Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a rotation strategy, focusing on technology opportunities, as the technology sector shows low crowding and potential for upward movement[3][40] - The TMT sector's crowding index rose from 8.7% at the end of May to 27.5%, indicating increased interest in technology stocks[43] Convertible Bonds - Convertible bond valuations have improved across various price levels, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity rising by 0.81 percentage points to 47.28%[27] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring stock performance and credit events for potential investment opportunities in convertible bonds[55] Risks - The report highlights risks associated with accelerated style rotation in equity markets and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the trends of various agricultural products. After the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents on June 5th, the market's optimism about the trade situation increased, which had different impacts on different agricultural products. Some products were boosted by this positive sentiment, while others were affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and weather conditions. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Soybean Meal - **Trend**: Strongly rising. The 2509 contract was boosted by trade optimism and rising import costs. The price broke through the 3000 - integer mark, showing technical strength [1][2]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 2980, and the resistance level is 3050 [2]. (2) Cotton - **Trend**: Breaking upward. The 2509 contract was driven by the positive sentiment of trade optimism. Although the fundamentals remained unchanged, the market expected an increase in cotton - textile product exports. However, the downstream demand was in the off - season, which limited the upward space [3]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and go long with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13330, and the resistance level is 13475 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - **Trend**: Rising first and then falling, closing with a shadow - line negative candle. The expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production and inventory limited the increase, while the increase in export volume provided some support. The domestic inventory increased, and the demand was weak [5]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 8058, and the resistance level is 8186 [5]. (4) Soybean Oil - **Trend**: Strongly rising. Driven by the positive sentiment of Sino - US trade relations, the price rebounded technically. However, the large arrival of imported soybeans increased the supply, which might limit the increase [7]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 7686, and the resistance level is 7750 [7]. (5) Sugar - **Trend**: Falling first and then rising, rebounding at a low level. Affected by the decline in ICE raw sugar futures prices, Zhengzhou sugar opened lower, but the high domestic sugar sales rate and low inventory provided support [9]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. The support level for the 2509 contract is 5688, and the resistance level is 5741 [9]. (6) Corn - **Trend**: Continuously rising. Supported by tight supply and declining port inventory, the price showed a stable upward trend [11]. - **Strategy**: Go long with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2329, and the resistance level is 2350 [11]. (7) Live Pigs - **Trend**: Oscillating and falling, continuing the weak trend. High inventory in the breeding end and weak downstream demand in the off - season put pressure on the price [14]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2509 contract is 13380, and the resistance level is 13545 [14]. (8) Eggs - **Trend**: Continuously falling. High egg - laying hen inventory and weak post - festival demand, along with storage difficulties in the rainy and hot season, led to downward pressure on the price [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Go short with a light position. The support level for the 2507 contract is 2850, and the resistance level is 2889 [19]. (9) Apples - **Trend**: Rising first and then falling, with oscillating prices. The peak season of fruit listing affected apple sales, but low inventory and the expected reduction in some western regions provided some support [21]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions. The support level for the 2510 contract is 7651, and the resistance level is 7800 [24]. (10) Peanuts - **Trend**: Rising and then falling, continuously closing with negative candles. Affected by the volatility of the oil market, the price showed an oscillating trend. Limited supply at the grass - roots level, weak downstream consumption, and cautious purchasing by traders contributed to this situation [23]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term. If the 10 - day moving average is broken again, go short with a light position. The support level for the 2510 contract is 8400, and the resistance level is 8450 [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic bean futures prices follow the fluctuations of the external market. The soybean futures prices in the US are still affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a trend of being more likely to rise than fall. The main trading logic in the short - term is the weather theme, and the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the supply - demand environment has significantly improved, which supports the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic palm oil futures prices. If the trading logic of oils returns to fundamentals, palm oil is expected to become the leading variety [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. With the continuous release of optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of good US soybean exports is increasing. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6][7]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic involves Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand. The strong export of Malaysian palm oil and improved supply - demand environment support the domestic palm oil futures prices [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消 费2570万吨。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。4月份我国棉花进 口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14544，基差1279（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.08%, and ChiNext Index up 0.08% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,378.22 points with a slight increase of 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index reached 10,152.55 points, up 0.08% [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.22% to 42,427.74 points, while the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.01% to 5,970.81 points [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huatai Securities reported a 2.9% month-on-month increase in lithium battery production for June, with total battery production reaching 107.7 GWh, driven by demand from new energy vehicles and favorable export conditions [4] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates a continued recovery in the small home appliance sector, supported by trade-in policies and low base effects, leading to improved profitability for companies in this space [5] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential trading opportunities arising from adjustments in monetary policy and market dynamics [6] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Huaxi Securities noted that some funds may have begun to position themselves in the technology sector, driven by positive market sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite potential risks from fluctuating tariff policies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines are negotiating a significant order for hundreds of Airbus aircraft, marking a potential shift in the aviation market dynamics between China and the U.S. [2][5] Group 1: Potential Order Details - The ongoing negotiations may involve approximately 300 aircraft, with estimates ranging from 200 to 500 units [5] - The deal could include a substantial number of wide-body aircraft, particularly the A330neo model [6] - If finalized, this order could become the largest aircraft purchase in China's history and rank among the largest globally [6] Group 2: Market Context - Boeing has not secured any major orders from China since 2017, facing challenges due to trade tensions and safety concerns surrounding the 737 Max [6][7] - In contrast, Airbus has been gaining a competitive edge in the Chinese market, highlighted by a previous order of about 300 single-aisle aircraft valued at approximately $37 billion in 2022 [6] - The evolving trade policies under both the Biden and Trump administrations have further pushed China towards Airbus [7] Group 3: Implications of the Order - The potential deal is seen as a symbolic achievement for China-EU relations and may signal China's trade stance towards the U.S. [5] - The upcoming visit of European leaders to China could coincide with the finalization of this order, emphasizing the importance of this transaction [5][6] - The recovery of the global aviation industry and ongoing technological advancements will continue to influence the competitive landscape of the aerospace manufacturing sector [8]

2025 年 06 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆反弹、菜粕偏弱，豆粕或仍震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4134 | +15（+0.36%） | 4122 -8（-0.19%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2935 -31 | （-1.05%） | 2947 +8（+0.27%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1041 | +6.5（+0.63%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 294.3 -0.2 | （-0.07%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 较昨-100至-70； 2850～2880， +20或持平； 7-9月M2509-40/-20/+0； | 6-7月M2509-60， | 持平； 较昨 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the China-U.S. trade relations and their implications for global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Trade Relations** - The trade relationship remains complex with mutual dependence despite friction. China is enhancing trade cooperation with ASEAN, EU, and other non-U.S. regions to maintain export resilience, employing a transshipment trade strategy effectively [1][3][5]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has increased U.S. import costs, with average tariffs around 16% and potential increases to 20%. In contrast, some Chinese exports face tariffs as high as 50%, negatively impacting U.S. economic conditions [4][5]. 3. **Short-term Export Performance** - China's exports are expected to grow by 7% in Q2 2025, but a decline is anticipated in the latter half of the year due to the expansion of global tariffs. The overall GDP forecast for China is approximately 4.75% for the year [9][10]. 4. **U.S. Economic Growth Projections** - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to around 1% from an initial estimate of nearly 2%. This decline is significantly influenced by tariff impacts [8]. 5. **Real Estate and Fiscal Policy in China** - China's real estate investment has underperformed expectations, with potential fiscal stimulus measures anticipated in the second half of the year, including special bonds to support the economy [10]. 6. **Currency Trends** - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate, potentially reaching around 7 by the end of the year. This is influenced by the current economic conditions and capital flows [12][13][23]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics** - The trade war has led to a significant shift in global trade patterns, with China increasing exports to regions like ASEAN and Africa to offset losses from the U.S. market [3][6]. 8. **Long-term Economic Relations** - In the long run, the economic relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to evolve amidst geopolitical divisions, with China focusing more on non-U.S. partners [7]. 9. **Market Sentiment and Investment Risks** - Current market sentiment is weak due to ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to significant declines in exports and economic growth in the latter half of the year [26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation and Monetary Policy** - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and rising inflation expectations are leading to tighter monetary policies, with little likelihood of a new Plaza Accord [11]. 2. **Emerging Market Currencies** - Emerging market currencies are facing uncertainty due to trade dynamics and economic challenges, limiting their potential for appreciation [15]. 3. **Commodity Market Outlook** - A bearish outlook is projected for commodities like oil and steel, with expectations of price declines due to oversupply and weak demand [22]. 4. **Investor Behavior** - Investors are advised to be cautious with U.S. Treasury bonds due to volatility risks and potential dollar depreciation impacting returns on dollar-denominated assets [13][18]. 5. **Future Liquidity Conditions** - The potential for rapid liquidity release in the market is anticipated, depending on the economic recovery trajectory, which could influence asset allocation strategies [25].