Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3,351.89, with a slight increase of 0.17% from the previous session, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The highest price reached today was $3,351.89, while the lowest was $3,340.99, showing a range of fluctuation within the trading session [1] Group 2 - A senior economist warns that inflation momentum is clear, and if US-Japan tariff negotiations succeed, an interest rate hike in October is possible [2] - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year and the next, as companies shift from temporary cost-pass-through strategies to more permanent price transmission mechanisms [2] Group 3 - Gold prices are currently experiencing a high-level consolidation, with potential risks of a downturn to around $3,000 or $2,600, but the bullish trend remains intact as long as prices stay above the May moving average [3] - If gold prices break below the May moving average support, they could drop to the $3,000 level, but the likelihood of this happening is considered low due to multiple expected interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [3] - Current indicators suggest a bearish signal, indicating a potential for a pullback, but any decline is expected to find support near the middle moving average, presenting a buying opportunity [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's tariff pressure is escalating, leading to games among countries in negotiation, counter - measures, and buffering. Domestically, China's June economic data is better than expected, with exports and imports improving and the trade surplus expanding. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold is in shock, while silver has started a catch - up rally, and it is expected that the catch - up rally of silver will continue [4][5]. - Copper: The LME's visible inventory has increased, and Lun copper is under pressure at high levels. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. - Aluminum: The social inventory of aluminum has increased significantly, and Shanghai aluminum has reduced positions and adjusted. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina: There is no obvious supply - demand contradiction, and alumina will maintain a shock [10]. - Zinc: With the macro and micro factors in a tug - of - war, zinc prices will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Lead: Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. - Tin: The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. - Industrial silicon: Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate: The impact of mine - end disturbances is limited, and lithium prices will oscillate. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event [17][18]. - Nickel: The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. - Crude oil: There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. - Steel products: The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices of steel products will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. - Iron ore: The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. - Palm oil: India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's tariff pressure is escalating. The EU warns of counter - tariffs on $720 billion of US products, Trump threatens Russia with 100% secondary tariffs, Brazil requests tariff reduction and postponement, and the US starts a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports. The dollar index rose above 98, and the stock and commodity markets had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Domestically: China's June exports and imports were better than expected, the trade surplus expanded, and the financial data marginally improved. A - shares rose with reduced volume, and the bond market is in a short - term shock [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.35% to $3352.10 per ounce on Monday. The current gold price is in shock [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 1.40% to $38.41 per ounce on Monday. Silver has started a catch - up rally, reaching a new high in nearly 14 years. It is expected that the catch - up rally will continue [4][5]. 3.3 Base Metals Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper's main contract was weakly oscillating, and Lun copper oscillated around $9700. The LME inventory rose to 109,000 tons. It is expected that the short - term market will maintain a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, and Shanghai copper will continue to adjust downward [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,415 yuan per ton, down 1.45%. The social inventory of aluminum increased significantly, and the market's long - position confidence declined. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the sustainability of inventory accumulation [8][9]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3145 yuan per ton, down 0.6%. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected to maintain a shock [10]. Zinc - On Monday, Shanghai zinc's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and rose after a low opening at night. The overall zinc price will oscillate at a low level due to the tug - of - war between macro and micro factors [11]. Lead - On Monday, Shanghai lead's main contract oscillated narrowly during the day and horizontally at night. Near the delivery of the current - month contract, inventory pressure suppresses the price trend. After the delivery factor is removed, lead prices are expected to rise with the recovery of consumption [12][13]. Tin - On Monday, Shanghai tin's main contract fluctuated greatly during the day and first declined then rose at night. The supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is limited, and tin prices will oscillate [14]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The uncertainty of tariffs persists, and nickel prices will continue to oscillate [19]. 3.4 Industrial Products Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound. Driven by new policies, the futures price is expected to maintain a strong shock in the short term [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - On Monday, the futures price of lithium carbonate was running strongly, and the spot price rose slightly. The impact of the Yichang lithium mine compliance event is uncertain, and lithium prices will oscillate [17][18]. 3.5 Energy Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated weakly. There is no obvious sign of short - term geopolitical risk escalation. In the short term, oil prices will oscillate and be observed [20]. 3.6 Steel Products Steel Products - On Monday, steel futures oscillated. The market enthusiasm has declined, and the futures prices will oscillate at high levels. The demand is still weak, and the upward pressure on prices remains [21][22]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the inventory pressure has slightly increased. The demand is expected to remain weak, and the short - term trend will be oscillating [23]. 3.7 Agricultural Products Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract also rose. The excellent - good rate of US soybeans is higher than expected, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate and strengthen [24][25]. Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. India's palm oil imports increased significantly in June, and palm oil may oscillate and be on the strong side in the short term [26][27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The demand for summer travel in the US is higher than expected, and the strong gasoline demand boosts market confidence. OPEC+ is optimistic about gasoline demand in the third quarter. The tariff negotiation is postponed to August, which postpones market concerns. PTA will see new installations put into production in the third quarter, creating a time mismatch with PX. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong bottom support. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. The PX supply side lacks positive factors, and with the off - season of polyester consumption and a significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates, and the fundamentals are weakening. The PTA market is affected by the strong crude oil market, and the downstream polyester operating rate is still higher than last year. The PTA spot basis has rebounded from the bottom. However, with new installations expected on the supply side and no improvement in demand during the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, and due to weak supply - demand expectations, prices have fallen across the board. If polyester production cuts deepen, industry chain contradictions will intensify. The cost - side strength drives the profit distribution pattern to tilt towards raw materials again. PTA will fluctuate, with cost being the dominant factor. The polyester bottle - chip market has sufficient supply, and downstream buying enthusiasm is waning. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 14, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.98 per barrel, down 2.15% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $69.21 per barrel, down 1.63%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) on July 11 was $584.25 per ton, down 1.14%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) on July 14 was $740 per ton, up 2.85%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) on July 14 was $852 per ton, up 1.83% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,740 yuan per ton, up 0.85%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,732 yuan per ton, up 0.72%; the settlement price was 4,726 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.45%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,735 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The CCFEI price index of foreign PTA on July 11 was $624 per ton, down 1.58%. The near - far month spread was 0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 10 yuan per ton; the basis was - 5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [1]. - **PX**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,778 yuan per ton, up 1.25%; the settlement price was 6,748 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%; the settlement price was 6,926 yuan per ton, up 0.44%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,813 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Chinese Taipei) was $851 per ton, up 1.67%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $826 per ton, up 1.72%. The PXN spread was $267.75 per ton, up 8.99%; the PX - MX spread was $112 per ton, down 4.41%. The basis was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 84 yuan per ton [1]. - **PR**: On July 14, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the settlement price was 5,902 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 5,948 yuan per ton, up 0.27%. The market price (dominant price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market, it was 6,020 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 35 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton; in the South China market, it was 100 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 14, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,600 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,050 yuan per ton, down 0.70%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 6,850 yuan per ton, down 0.72%. The CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,655 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,825 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,955 yuan per ton, unchanged [2]. Operating Conditions - On July 14, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 78.98%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 87.15%, up 0.28 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 71.93%, unchanged; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 59.12%, unchanged. The sales rate of polyester filament was 37%, up 1 percentage point; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 74%, up 33 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 144%, up 83 percentage points [1] Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA has slightly rebounded, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,740 yuan per ton (up 0.64%), and the daily trading volume was 1.01 million lots. The PX price has returned to consolidation, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,778 yuan per ton (up 0.86%), and the daily trading volume was 228,200 lots. PR follows the cost trend, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,920 yuan per ton (up 0.58%), and the daily trading volume was 53,700 lots. The international oil price has declined. The polyester industry chain has weak demand and is expected to fluctuate. PX, PTA, and PR are all expected to fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the EU and the US, particularly in light of President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports, which has led to increased market volatility and concerns over economic impacts [1][7][4]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is preparing to strengthen cooperation with countries also threatened by US tariffs, including Canada and Japan, potentially coordinating response measures [2][6]. - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that while the EU has paused retaliatory measures until August 1, it is preparing further countermeasures to ensure readiness [10][11]. - The EU's current countermeasure list could affect approximately €210 billion (about $245 billion) of US goods, with an additional list of around €720 billion being prepared [11]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Trump's tariff announcement, European stock indices fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 index down 0.6% and the German DAX index down 0.7% on July 14 [3][7]. - US stock markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the S&P 500 down 0.2% [8]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Analysts warn that if the 30% tariff is fully implemented, the effective tariff rate on the EU could rise to 26 percentage points, potentially leading to a cumulative GDP decline of 1.2% in the Eurozone by the end of 2026 [4][24]. - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to increased inflation and volatility in interest rates and exchange rates, impacting risk assets and commodities [24]. Group 4: Political Responses - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's tariff threats, urging the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if no agreement is reached by August 1 [13]. - German Chancellor Merz indicated that failure to resolve the trade conflict through negotiations would fundamentally impact European exporters [14]. Group 5: Ongoing Negotiations - Key issues in the ongoing EU-US negotiations include automotive and agricultural tariffs, with discussions about a preliminary agreement that may involve a 10% tariff on most EU exports [16][17]. - There is skepticism among EU officials regarding Trump's commitment to the 30% tariff, viewing it as a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy [18].

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,139 points, up 111 points or 0.46% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index outperformed the main index, rising by 0.61% [2] - The total turnover on the main board reached HKD 324 billion, a 31.3% increase from the previous day, marking the first time since May 12 that it exceeded HKD 300 billion [2] Group 2: Trade Policy and Economic Sentiment - The U.S. government has delayed new reciprocal tariff measures until August 1, with adjustments to tariff rates for various countries, leading to increased market volatility [4] - The probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell resigning has risen from 14% to 19%, reflecting market sensitivity to political news [4] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming CPI, PPI data, and bank earnings, which will guide market expectations regarding interest rate policies [4] Group 3: Company Analysis - Lianlian Digital (2598.HK) - Lianlian Digital is a digital payment service provider primarily serving small and medium-sized merchants, especially in the cross-border e-commerce sector, with a total of 5.9 million merchants served as of December 2024 [6] - The company holds 65 payment licenses and operates in over 100 countries, supporting transactions in more than 130 currencies [6] - The total payment volume (TPV) for the company is projected to reach HKD 3.3 trillion in 2024, a 65% year-on-year increase, with digital payment services accounting for 88% of total revenue [7] - The company has achieved profitability, with total revenue of HKD 1.31 billion in 2024, a 28% increase, and an adjusted net profit of HKD 79 million [7] - Lianlian Digital has obtained a Virtual Asset Trading Platform (VATP) license, allowing it to engage in regulated activities related to securities trading and automated trading services [8] - The company plans to issue a stablecoin, targeting cross-border trade payments, which could significantly enhance its service offerings [8]

金十数据7月14日讯，欧盟高级官员表示，欧盟正寻求深化与印度和亚太地区其他国家的贸易协定。欧 盟竞争事务主管Teresa Ribera周一说："我们需要探索在太平洋地区与其他国家的合作能走多远、走多 深，比如与印度正在进行的这些对话就相当重要。"她指的是与印度的自由贸易谈判预计将在年底前完 成。此番言论正值特朗普在关税谈判最后阶段加大施压力度之际。Ribera暗示欧盟将继续谈判，但若关 税真正落地，集团将全力开拓其他市场。 欧盟官员称将深化与亚洲国家的贸易协议以应对美国关税 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU is currently in critical negotiations with the US regarding tariffs, with President Trump threatening a 30% tariff on EU products, prompting a response from EU leaders who are seeking to negotiate rather than retaliate aggressively [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Response to US Tariff Threats - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the postponement of retaliatory tariffs on $210 billion worth of US products, originally set to take effect on July 15, to early August, emphasizing a preference for negotiation [1][4]. - Von der Leyen stated that the EU will continue to prepare additional countermeasures while prioritizing negotiations with the US [1][7]. - The EU is planning to engage with countries like Canada and Japan to coordinate responses to the US tariffs [3][4]. Group 2: Internal EU Reactions and Criticism - Some European business organizations and politicians criticized von der Leyen's approach as weak, suggesting that failure to respond effectively to Trump's tariffs would be a significant setback [1][4]. - French President Macron expressed strong dissatisfaction with Trump's threats and urged the EU to prepare credible countermeasures if negotiations fail [4][9]. - Italian officials and agricultural organizations warned that the proposed tariffs could have devastating effects on Italy's food exports, estimating direct losses of around €2.3 billion [8][9]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Negotiation Dynamics - Germany, being the largest exporter to the US, reported a 7.7% decline in exports to the US in May, highlighting the economic impact of the tariff threats [5][7]. - EU leaders are divided on whether to pursue a quick trade agreement similar to the UK's or to continue negotiations for a better outcome [4][9]. - EU officials believe that Trump's threats may be a negotiation tactic rather than a definitive policy change, with expectations that a reasonable solution can still be reached [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market and its recovery dynamics, influenced by tariff negotiations and macroeconomic factors. Core Points and Arguments 1. The U.S. stock market has experienced one of the fastest recoveries in its history, with indices reaching new highs in less than three months following a significant drop due to tariff negotiations [1][4] 2. The non-U.S. global index has reached historical highs, indicating a potential market and economic model shift, reminiscent of significant changes observed in the early 1980s [3][5] 3. Historical patterns suggest that the non-U.S. global index peaks often precede peaks in the U.S. stock market, highlighting the interconnectedness of global markets [3][5] 4. The U.S. stock market's performance is increasingly influential on the non-U.S. global index, suggesting that the current market dynamics are indicative of a broader economic transition [3][5] 5. The "Big America" bill passed by Congress is expected to significantly increase the U.S. government's debt burden, potentially leading to long-term economic instability [9][10] 6. The U.S. budget deficit is projected to remain around 7%, which is unusually high for a peacetime economy, raising concerns about future economic stability [10] 7. Despite the long-term concerns, the current liquidity conditions and the potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may support risk asset prices in the short term [11][12] 8. Investor sentiment is complex, with high stock holdings contrasting with bearish sentiment in surveys, indicating a potential disconnect in market psychology [13][15] 9. The potential for a technical rebound in the U.S. dollar is noted, as it has reached a critical support level after a prolonged period of weakness [19][20] 10. The worst-case scenario of the tariff war is believed to have passed, although uncertainty remains high due to ongoing negotiations and potential policy changes from the Trump administration [21][22] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The historical context of U.S. stock market cycles suggests that the current market may be entering a more volatile phase, with significant implications for investment strategies [6][7] 2. The analysis of the Chinese stock market indicates a downward trend, with limited foreign investment opportunities, which could impact global capital flows [8] 3. The discussion emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between long-term economic views and short-term trading strategies, particularly in light of current market conditions [15][26] 4. The tightening of monetary conditions in Hong Kong and its implications for market sentiment are also highlighted, suggesting a regional impact on investment flows [23][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and potential future developments.

墨西哥经济部长Ebrard：美国关税不公平。 美国、墨西哥于周五成立了双边工作组。 墨西哥正在谈判以避免美国的关税。 ...

Core Insights - The EU and the US are working towards reaching a temporary trade agreement in the coming days, with automotive and agricultural tariff levels being key points of contention [1] Group 1 - The automotive tariffs are a significant issue in the negotiations between the EU and the US [1] - Agricultural tariffs are also a critical factor in the ongoing trade discussions [1]