Group 1 - Gold prices have surged back to the 3400 level, primarily driven by factors such as the extension of US tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations with the EU and China [3][5] - The market is reacting to speculation around potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the political situation surrounding Chairman Powell, which has created uncertainty and volatility [3][5] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has also contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold, as increased military aid to Ukraine from the US and Europe continues to escalate tensions [3][5] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the 3375-3380 resistance level and is now testing the 3400 mark, with potential upward targets of 3420-425 and possibly reaching historical highs around 3500 [5][7] - Silver prices are following gold's upward trend, having reached an annual high, but caution is advised as the market enters a phase where chasing prices is not recommended [7][9] - The US dollar index has shown fluctuations, currently approaching the 97 level, with expectations of a potential upward adjustment targeting 99 and beyond [9] Group 3 - Crude oil prices are moving in the opposite direction to gold, nearing critical support levels around 64-65, with a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [11]

Market Overview - The current gold price has strongly broken through the $3,400 mark, reaching a high of $3,433.37 per ounce, the highest since June 16, with a closing increase of 1% to $3,431.59 per ounce [2] - The rise in gold prices is supported by global trade uncertainties, a decline in the US dollar, and falling US Treasury yields [2] Economic Indicators - There are indications of a significant likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary and Powell advocating for a reduction of rates by up to 3 percentage points [2] - The ongoing trade negotiations are at a stalemate, which is contributing to the weakening of the dollar and providing upward momentum for gold prices [2] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates an upward trend for gold, with technical indicators showing a bullish crossover and increasing momentum [4] - However, there are signs of potential short-term overbought conditions, suggesting a need for a pullback or consolidation [4] - The 4-hour chart indicates a possible peak, with support levels identified at $3,405-$3,400, and a break below $3,400 could lead to further adjustments [4] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at $3,435 with a stop-loss at $3,442 and a target range of $3,420-$3,310 [5] - For silver, the upward trend continues with a temporary high around $39.3, and potential resistance at $39.5, while support is noted at $38.5-$37.5 [5] Domestic Futures - In the domestic futures market, Shanghai gold has reached 795, and accumulation gold has reached 790, with recommendations to exit long positions and wait for a pullback before re-entering [6] - Support levels for Shanghai gold are at 780, while accumulation gold support is at 772 [6] Shanghai Silver - Shanghai silver has reached a temporary high of 9,540, with no clear top formation yet; however, a failure to reach new highs could indicate a potential peak [7] - Support levels for Shanghai silver are identified at 9,350-9,250, with a break below these levels suggesting a shift from strong to weak momentum [7]

Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

韩国将大米、牛肉设定为美国关税谈判的"红线"。（韩联社） ...

Overall Core View - The supply-demand contradiction of lead is still expected to exist, and the price is supported [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Market Data Summary Futures Price - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 0.35% from the previous day; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 2,015 dollars/ton, up 0.17% [1] Trading Volume - The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 34,982 lots, a decrease of 9,677 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,342 lots, a decrease of 3,570 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 41,631 lots, a decrease of 3,239 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 136,798 lots, an increase of 595 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -45 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -25.97 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.47 dollars/ton [1] Import and Export Profit and Loss - The import profit and loss of lead ingot spot was -699.81 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.39 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three was -566.31 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.6 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 60,059 tons, unchanged; the inventory of LME lead was 262,500 tons, a decrease of 2,425 tons [1] Other Prices - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] Comprehensive Profit and Loss - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -507 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton [1] News Summary - There are potential "tariff wars" between Brazil and the US, the EU and the US, and the US and Japan. Brazil may respond if Trump doesn't change his mind, the EU may impose over 90 billion euros in countermeasures if tariff negotiations don't progress, and Trump plans to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods while Japan will invest 550 billion dollars in the US [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) stated that the global lead market had a supply surplus of 1,000 tons in May 2025, compared with a supply shortage of 6,000 tons in April [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]

当地时间22日，法国工业与能源部长马克.费拉奇表示，若在8月1日前未能就关税问题与美国达成协 议，欧盟将启动反制措施，对价值超过900亿欧元的美国产品加征关税。首轮反制规模为210亿欧元，由 欧盟委员会届时立即实施。费拉奇称，当前谈判未见成效，欧方须调整策略，展现更强硬、可信的立 场。(央视新闻) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the recent market risk appetite remains high and the US signals on tariff negotiations are optimistic, with the upcoming tariff deferral period in early August, gold is expected to gradually return to the safe - haven logic in the short term, but the rise may be slow due to the strong US economic data and the post - poned Fed rate - cut expectation to September. It is recommended to buy on dips. For silver, while the recovery of risk appetite benefits its industrial attributes, there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term real demand, so cautious chasing of gains is advised [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, considering the ongoing trade war, the probability of Fed rate cuts this year, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, the center of gravity of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - **Precious Metal Prices**: On July 21, 2025, London gold spot was at $3367.28/ounce, London silver spot at $38.30/ounce, COMEX gold at $3374.80/ounce, and COMEX silver at $38.60/ounce. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding values. Compared with July 18, the price of London gold spot increased by 0.8%, London silver spot decreased by 0.1%, etc. [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On July 21, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.02 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 14 yuan/kg. Compared with July 18, the changes in price spreads and ratios varied, such as the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increasing by 1.0% [3] 3.2 Position Data - **COMEX and ETF Positions**: As of July 15, 2025 (weekly data), for COMEX gold, non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, and the net long position was 213115 contracts. For gold ETF - SPDR, the position on July 18 was 943.62 tons, a decrease of 0.51% compared with July 17 [3] - **Inventory Data**: On July 21, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, with no change compared with July 18; SHFE silver inventory was 1204466 kg, a decrease of 0.55% compared with July 18 [3] 3.3 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: On July 21, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the US dollar index was 98.46, etc. Compared with July 18, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.03%, the US dollar index decreased by 0.18%, etc. [4] 3.4 Market News and Analysis - **Economic Data**: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8, higher than the expected 61.5. The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: US President Trump is promoting a minimum tariff increase of 15% - 20% on all EU goods. The LDP in Japan suffered a historic defeat in the Senate election, but Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to govern [4]

Core Viewpoint - Ongoing tariff negotiations between the US and Malaysia face significant disagreements on sensitive issues, impacting Malaysia's economic growth expectations. Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The US plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries, including a 25% tariff on Malaysian products starting August 1 [1] - Malaysia's negotiation team aims for a tariff rate below 25%, ideally around 20%, to align with neighboring countries like Indonesia and Vietnam [1][2] - The outcome of these negotiations is crucial for Malaysia's economic growth, with the government projecting a growth target of 4.5% to 5.5% for the year, contingent on the final tariff levels [1] Group 2: Controversial Issues - The extension of tax exemptions for US-made electric vehicles is a contentious point, with Malaysian officials hesitant to agree due to potential implications for other countries [2] - Malaysia is unwilling to lower foreign ownership limits in sensitive sectors like electricity and finance, reflecting the political sensitivity of these issues [2] - The request to reduce local fisheries subsidies and overfishing is seen as interference in domestic affairs, affecting key voter groups, particularly among the Malay fishermen [3] Group 3: Semiconductor Cooperation - Malaysia has shown willingness to cooperate on high-performance semiconductors, implementing stricter export controls for AI chips to the US [4]

金十数据7月22日讯，日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正周一与美国商务部长卢特尼克举行会谈，距离8月1日 美国加征关税的最后期限仅剩数日。日本内阁府周二发表声明称，双方周一晚间在华盛顿进行了两个多 小时的会谈。声明表示，双方为实现互利协议进行了坦诚深入的讨论，但强调日本仍将坚守国家利益。 这是自四月启动谈判以来，赤泽亮正第八次赴美磋商，目前尚未取得实质性进展。随着日本执政联盟在 周日选举中遭遇历史性挫败，日本首相石破茂正面临新的压力，需在关税生效前争取缓冲空间。若未能 达成协议，日本对美出口商品的普遍关税税率将于8月1日上调至25%。 美日关税谈判进入最后冲刺 日本执政党选举惨败加剧谈判压力 ...

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures experienced fluctuations but maintained above the $3400 mark, indicating a recovery in market sentiment amid uncertainties in trade negotiations and a weakening dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 21, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.63%, reaching $3410 per ounce, marking a five-week high [1]. - On July 22, gold futures opened at $3410.7 per ounce, peaked at $3416.3, and then fell slightly to $3403.1, a decrease of 0.1% [1][2]. - The average price recorded was $3407.0, with a slight decline of $3.4 [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased market risk aversion and a weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline [3]. - Analysts suggest that four key factors will influence whether gold can surpass $3500: central bank purchasing, geopolitical tensions, inflation data, and dollar performance [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Demand - A recent survey by the World Gold Council indicated that 95% of central banks expect to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points from 2024 [3]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Citigroup forecasts that gold prices will stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3, with a potential fundamental weakness in the market due to declining investment demand thereafter [4].