Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during its meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Outlook - A significant majority of economists (66 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy stance [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the ECB's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is at historical lows, leading to the belief that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) forecast that the ECB will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Growth Projections - Economists project that the Eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is consistent with the findings from the August survey [1] - There are warnings regarding potential risks in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1] Currency Trading Insights - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently in a consolidation pattern below resistance levels, with a focus on the monthly opening range of 1.1586 to 1.1775 [1] - From a trading perspective, if the Euro intends to continue its upward trend, it must keep declines above 1.1497 and close above the current trading range to initiate a new major upward wave [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to maintain its current interest rates during the upcoming meeting on Thursday [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold interest rates is expected to reflect ongoing economic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran is expected to clear Senate hurdles for his nomination to the Federal Reserve Board, which may allow for more direct influence from Trump on interest rate policies and the broader functions of the Fed [1] Group 1: Nomination Process - The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to vote on Miran's nomination before a hearing at 10 AM ET, which will then be forwarded to the full Senate [1] - Democratic senators are expected to vote against the nomination, but the Republican majority of 13 to 11 in the committee is likely to ensure its passage [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the completion of the confirmation process in time for Miran to attend the Fed's policy meeting on September 16-17 [1] Group 2: Timing and Implications - A Senate Republican aide indicated that due to complex Senate rules, Miran may be approved as early as Monday, leaving little time for necessary steps before his swearing-in [1] - The Republican majority in the Senate, which stands at 53 to 47, suggests that even if Miran cannot participate in the upcoming interest rate vote, he is likely to assume office shortly thereafter [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's recent actions are creating unprecedented turmoil for the Federal Reserve, with potential implications for interest rates and monetary policy direction [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - Trump has indicated he has a candidate in mind for the Federal Reserve chair position, with Hassett being one of the three potential nominees [1]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has raised concerns, as it was unexpected and she did not disclose the reasons for her departure [1][2]. - Trump's push for a majority in the Fed's board aims to influence interest rate decisions, emphasizing the need for lower rates to revive the housing market [2][3]. Group 2: Conflicts and Legal Issues - Kugler's resignation is speculated to be linked to disagreements with Powell over interest rates, providing Trump an opportunity to nominate a replacement [2]. - The ongoing conflict with Fed Governor Cook involves allegations of mortgage fraud, which Trump used as justification for her dismissal [2][3]. - Legal disputes are emerging, with Cook suing the Trump administration, claiming the allegations are a cover for policy disagreements [2][3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - Trump's criticism of Powell as "too slow" reflects a broader strategy to reshape the Fed's approach to monetary policy, aiming for a more aggressive stance on interest rate cuts [3]. - The potential for Trump to control a majority of the Fed's board could significantly alter the landscape of U.S. monetary policy and its impact on the economy [3]. Group 4: Trade and Regulatory Actions - In addition to the Fed, Trump is intensifying his stance on trade, threatening investigations into EU penalties on U.S. tech companies, which he views as discriminatory [5]. - Trump's engagement with tech giants like Google and Apple indicates a strategy to consolidate support from the tech industry ahead of the elections [5].

Core Viewpoint - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee has not yet made a decision on policy actions to support at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, emphasizing the need to consider inflation data to be released next week [1] Group 1 - Goolsbee expressed a desire for more information as the meeting approaches, maintaining an open attitude [1] - The focus on inflation performance is crucial, with Goolsbee indicating that milder inflation data would allow for greater focus on the labor market [1] - Recent inflation reports have shown a rebound in service sector prices, prompting the need to confirm whether this is a temporary fluctuation or a more serious signal [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The Fed Chairman Powell signaled a September rate cut due to weakening employment supply and demand. Coupled with Trump's continuous pressure or potential replacement of Fed officials and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to go long on price dips [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold's closing price was 809.97 yuan/g, with trading volume of 70,268.00 and open interest of 221,198.00. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3,410.70 dollars/oz, trading volume was 94,317.00, and open interest was 360,647.00. London gold spot price was 3,334.25 dollars/oz. SPDR gold ETF holdings were 25.77 million ounces, and iShare gold ETF holdings were 456.72 million ounces [1]. - **Silver**: Shanghai silver's closing price was 433.00 yuan/kg, trading volume was -101,174.00, and open interest was 3,489,224.00. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 38.55 dollars/oz, trading volume was 22,029.00, and open interest was 88,833.00. London silver spot price was 40.52 dollars/oz. US iShare silver ETF holdings were -85.08 million ounces, and Canadian PSLV silver ETF holdings were 6,084.49 million ounces [1]. Macroeconomic Data - **Interest Rates**: US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.2200%, TIPS yield was 1.8200%, and breakeven inflation rate was 2.4000%. Shanghai Inter - bank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.32%, and SHIBOR one - year was 1.66% [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.1485, the US dollar to RMB central parity rate was 7.1108, and the euro to RMB central parity rate was 8.2855 [1]. - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,813.5566, the S&P 500 was 32.72, the UK FTSE 100 was 9,321.4000, the French CAC40 was 7,719.7100, the German DAX was 23,487.3300, the Nikkei 225 was 42,807.8200, and the South Korean Composite Index was 3,184.4200 [1]. Important News - **US**: Trump reiterated tariffs might replace income tax, and the US threatened with tariffs against the UN shipping emissions agreement. US July JOLTS job openings hit a 10 - month low. US August tariffs exceeded $31 billion, a record high. Fed Governor Waller suggested starting rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months [1]. - **Europe**: Eurozone August PMI was slightly revised down, and German services unexpectedly shrank. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August [1]. - **Asia**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will reduce quarterly government bond purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen starting in April 2026 [1]. Trading Strategy - For precious metals, investors are advised to go long on price dips. For London gold, focus on support around 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/oz and resistance around 3,600 - 3,700 dollars/oz. For Shanghai gold, focus on support around 760 - 770 yuan/g and resistance around 840 - 850 yuan/g. For London silver, focus on support around 36 - 37 dollars/oz and resistance around 41 - 43 dollars/oz. For Shanghai silver, focus on support around 9,000 - 9,400 yuan/kg and resistance around 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/kg [1].

Group 1 - The current interest rate level is deemed suitable for the economic environment, aligning with a fully employed labor market and core inflation rates approximately one percentage point above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - A balanced approach in policy-making is emphasized, avoiding excessive bias towards either supporting the labor market or combating inflation [1] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to observe the impact of policy changes, including tariffs, on inflation [1] Group 2 - The slowdown in corporate hiring is attributed to both reduced demand and decreased labor supply due to immigration restrictions [2] - Economic growth has slowed this year, leading to uncertainty in policies that cause businesses and households to cut spending [2] - Inflation remains closer to 3% rather than the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with tariffs expected to gradually affect the economy over the next two to three quarters [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain stable interest rates next week due to inflation levels nearing targets and resilient economic performance [1] - ECB officials, including Madis Muller, suggest a patient approach, closely monitoring upcoming economic data before making adjustments [1] - There is a diminishing willingness for further easing of policies after eight rate cuts, with current inflation in the Eurozone being well-controlled [1][2] Group 2 - Finnish and Lithuanian central bank leaders express concerns about downside risks to inflation, indicating a cautious outlook [2] - Muller notes that the new economic forecasts from the ECB will not show significant changes compared to the previous predictions made in June [2] - The recent political situation in France is highlighted, with the economy showing resilience but facing challenges related to high deficits and debt levels [2][3] Group 3 - The French government is on the brink of collapse, with a vote on a significant budget deficit reduction plan scheduled [3] - Villeroy emphasizes the importance of meeting the government's commitment to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2029 for debt stability [3] - The longer France delays addressing its fiscal issues, the more severe the future consequences will be [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant turmoil in the European and American financial markets, highlighting a collective sell-off in stocks, bonds, and currencies, driven by concerns over fiscal sustainability and rising interest rates [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On September 2, European markets experienced a "triple whammy" with the pound and euro sharply declining against the dollar, with the pound dropping 1.52% to 1.3340, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [3]. - Major European stock indices fell, with the German index down 1.68% and the Spanish index down 1.35% by 22:00 Beijing time [3]. - In the U.S., major stock indices also plummeted, with the Nasdaq dropping over 1% and the VIX index rising over 19%, indicating increased market volatility [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The UK 30-year government bond yield surged to 5.69%, the highest level since 1998, while Germany's and France's yields also reached significant highs of 3.40% and over 4.5%, respectively [5]. - Analysts noted a vicious cycle where rising debt concerns lead to higher yields, which in turn exacerbate debt dynamics [5]. - The proposed windfall tax on bank reserves by the UK government has raised fears regarding the sustainability of the UK's fiscal policy [6]. Group 3: Economic Policy and Inflation - The article highlights that high inflation in the UK may limit the Bank of England's ability to lower interest rates, thereby reducing economic stimulus [10]. - Eurozone inflation data for August showed a slight increase to 2.1%, reinforcing expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its current interest rate policy [11]. - The ECB's potential for future rate cuts is complicated by ongoing economic growth and inflation risks, with market expectations for a rate cut by December being only 25% [11]. Group 4: Pension System Reforms - The Netherlands is undergoing a pension system reform that shifts investment strategies, leading to increased demand for risk assets and reduced demand for long-duration hedging tools [7]. - This reform is expected to have a profound impact on the European long-term bond market, as Dutch pension savings account for over half of the EU's total and hold nearly €300 billion in European bonds [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns among economists regarding the potential impact of the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the term of Chairman Powell ends next year [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Concerns - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's interference could undermine the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation through interest rate setting [2][3]. - Economists warn that investors may be underestimating the threat posed by the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve's independence, with some describing the future of U.S. monetary policy as "chaotic" and "disastrous" [3][5]. - 89 out of 94 economists surveyed stated that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the credibility of the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The confirmation hearing for Trump's latest nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Miran, is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it will be expedited before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][9]. - The article highlights a significant test of the relationship between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly following Trump's dismissal of board member Cook, which has led to legal disputes [4][9]. - Economists express concern that if Trump's pressure leads to a loss of the Federal Reserve's independence, it could harm the largest economy in the world [5][10]. Group 3: Future Projections - 42% of surveyed economists believe that Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see a potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a major risk [6]. - A majority of economists (52%) expect that the focus of the Federal Reserve will shift after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [5]. - Despite the potential changes, over a quarter of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that the Federal Reserve will still be able to fulfill its responsibilities, albeit with reduced independence [5].