【环球网财经综合报道】上周，美国总统特朗普向多个地区和国家发送新的关税函，市场避险情绪迅速升温，白银价格突破多年新高，黄金、铂 金价格亦小幅上扬。 Cavatoni表示，本届美国政府已明确将解决对外国关键矿产或其他资产的依赖列为重要任务，任何关键矿产、战略矿产，或对美国国防、能源等 行业至关重要的金属，都可能被纳入关税政策范围。不过，目前黄金主要被视为货币金属，而非关键矿产，其作用更多体现在储蓄、投资组合及 央行储备等方面，不在本届政府认定的关键矿产名单上。 但黄金国际实物流动存在一定问题，这可能推动特朗普政府采取关税措施。Cavatoni称，世界黄金协会正密切关注金属跨境运输的物流挑战及潜 在关税进展。目前，黄金关税在征收细节上尚不明确，如是否涵盖原材料或成品、以批发价还是进口价计算等，但从过往经验看，一切皆有可 能。 世界黄金协会（WGC）北美首席市场策略师Joe Cavatoni指出，当前金价持续在每盎司3300美元附近盘整，反映出市场正焦急等待利率和贸易政 策走向明朗。此前美国突然宣布对铜征收进口关税，犹如一记警钟，提醒投资者黄金未来也可能面临类似风险。 对于黄金走势，Cavatoni认为，当前推动黄 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a consolidation phase around $3,300 per ounce, with investors awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicates that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government serves as a reminder that gold may also face similar tariff adjustments in the future [1] - The current price of gold reflects a lack of clarity among market participants regarding key driving factors, with prices remaining stable around $3,300 [2][3] - Gold has seen a significant increase of nearly 26% this year, which is notable compared to the average expected return rate of around 8% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual growth rate of gold production is expected to remain between 1% and 2.5%, aligning with the World Gold Council's forecasts [3] - Small-scale artisanal mining contributes approximately 20% to the total gold supply, and the organization is taking measures to regulate this sector [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual gold consumption over the past three to four years [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that central banks will continue to be active in the gold market, with 50% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [4] - A report on gold demand trends will be released soon, which is expected to show strong central bank demand for gold in the second quarter [4]

特朗普在他的首个任期(2018年)起便开始不停抨击鲍威尔，而近期的攻击变得特别频繁及激烈。2025年 6月以来，特朗普几乎每隔一两周就在不同场合公开批评美联储和鲍威尔。 特朗普周一表示，"我们有一个非常糟糕的美联储主席，非常糟糕。我已经试着对他客气了，但没 用。"他还补充称，"利率每高一个百分点，就要让我们多付3600亿美元。现在利率在4.5%左右，我们为 什么还要支付这么高的成本？" 智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普再度对美联储主席鲍威尔发难，不仅猛烈抨击其高利率政策，更称 其为"蠢货"，并敦促美联储将联邦基准利率降至1%。这一言论在当前通胀仍高于目标、经济运行稳健 的背景下，引发市场和经济学界广泛争议。 特朗普强调，美国应该将利率降至1%，以降低借贷成本，"我们本该只付1%的利息，而不是4.5%。" 当前美国经济并不符合这些条件。就业接近充分、通胀仍高于2%的美联储目标、经济增长保持稳定。 在此环境下贸然降息，不仅不利于物价稳定，还可能被市场解读为美联储屈服于政治压力，削弱其独立 性与公信力。 尤其是考虑到美国国债市场规模高达36万亿美元，一旦投资者对美联储失去信心，可能引发市场动荡。 除了货币政策争议 ...

一场原本看似围绕美联储大楼翻修的纷争，正在演变为特朗普政府内部分歧的放大器，甚至引发了对美联 储独立性的再度挑战。财政部长贝森特等政府高层仍坚称要尊重央行的政策自主权，但另一些顾问和盟友 却借机鼓噪，重新酝酿解除美联储主席鲍威尔职务的法律可能性。这并非单一事件的偶发性发酵，而是特 朗普执政理念中对货币政策干预冲动的又一次回潮。 美联储主席鲍威尔日前在证词中提到："在任期内，没有人愿意对一栋历史建筑进行重大翻修。"此番言论 虽表面谈的是基础设施，实则透露出他对当前政治气候中不当干预的隐忧。特朗普上任以来，屡屡通过公 开舆论和行政手段向美联储施压，要求降息以减轻财政负担。这一策略背后，是他力图通过压低利率减少 政府借贷成本，从而为自身大规模减税计划"腾出空间"。 特朗普阵营中一些顾问从大选前就致力于寻找解除鲍威尔的方式，表明这已非一时情绪之下的政治动作， 而是系统性计划的一环。他们将当前通胀回落与就业市场降温视为推动降息的"窗口期"，试图借美联储"软 化"的表态重启政治干预。然而，即使在通胀暂时受控的情况下，贸然实施宽松政策也有可能激化未来的 通胀压力，尤其在国际油价波动和供应链仍不稳定的前提下。 鲍威尔虽然在证 ...

Core Views - There is a divergence in views among European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding interest rate policy, with some advocating for further rate cuts if economic growth underperforms and inflation declines excessively, while others believe current rates are appropriate and only a significant deviation in inflation would warrant a cut [1][2][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Fabio Panetta, a member of the ECB's governing council, suggests that if economic growth is weaker than expected, leading to a significant drop in inflation, the ECB should consider further rate cuts [2]. - Panetta emphasizes the need for a flexible and pragmatic approach to monetary policy, indicating that decisions will be based on existing information and its impact on inflation forecasts [2][3]. - Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's executive board, argues that the current interest rates are suitable and that the threshold for further rate cuts is high, only to be considered if inflation significantly deviates from targets [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Risks - Schnabel asserts that the economy shows resilience despite uncertainties, and the current inflation trajectory aligns with expectations, negating immediate concerns for further rate cuts [5][6]. - There are concerns among some policymakers regarding the potential impact of ongoing trade tensions with the United States, which could affect economic activity and inflation [6]. - The ECB plans to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming meeting, with most officials preferring to observe economic trends before making further decisions [5][6]. Group 3: Banking Sector and Technology Investment - Panetta highlights the importance of technology investment in the banking sector, noting that such investments have increased by approximately 2 percentage points over the past decade [2]. - He also points out the risks associated with new technologies, prompting the Italian central bank to enhance oversight of financial intermediaries and their suppliers [3]. - Issues identified include low participation from corporate entities, incomplete IT asset inventories, and inadequate access controls for sensitive data [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. President Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, the implications of domestic debt replacement bonds in China, and the performance of various commodity markets, highlighting both upward and downward trends in different sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, claiming it is too high by at least 3 percentage points, leading to an annual refinancing cost of $360 billion for the U.S. [1] - The issuance of replacement bonds for hidden local government debt in China reached approximately 1.8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a trend of early and rapid issuance [1]. - The U.S. stock market saw an increase, with the real estate sector leading gains, while the automotive sector lagged [8]. Group 2: Commodity Market Performance - In the energy sector, crude oil prices fell by 1.44%, influenced by uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies and their impact on global oil demand [2][10]. - The coal market is experiencing a rebound in production, with downstream inventory replenishment and upstream destocking, although supply-side pressures remain [2][23]. - Glass futures saw a significant rebound due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory levels decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes [3][15]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - In the automotive battery sector, China's power battery installation volume reached 58.2 GWh in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.9% [7]. - The domestic market for pure soda ash is under pressure, with inventory levels increasing by 33,000 tons week-on-week, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [3][15]. - The copper market is facing mixed signals, with stable demand from the power sector but concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs on prices [17].

Group 1 - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1, 2025, impacting the U.S. which relies on imports for nearly half of its copper consumption, primarily from Chile [1][1] - The White House National Economic Council Director criticized the Federal Reserve for a lack of transparency regarding the impact of tariffs on economic models, expressing concerns about the decoupling of U.S. and European interest rates [1][1] - The Federal Reserve's Daly indicated two potential rate cuts within the year due to a weak labor market, while inflation concerns may influence policy direction [1][1] Group 2 - The Bank of Korea decided to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, citing significant economic uncertainty due to U.S. tariffs [1][1] - The Bank of Japan kept its economic assessment unchanged across nine regions, believing the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports to be limited, although there are concerns about long-term global demand [1][1] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 227,000, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline and the lowest level in two months, while continuing claims stood at 1.965 million, the highest since the end of 2021 [2][2] - OPEC revised down its global oil demand forecast for the next four years, projecting an average demand of 100.5 million barrels per day for this year, increasing to 106.3 million barrels per day by 2026 [2][2] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.43% to 44,650.64 points, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices reaching all-time highs [3][3] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.36% to $3,333.00 per ounce, while silver futures rose by 2.72% to $37.63 per ounce [3][3] Group 5 - U.S. crude oil futures fell by 2.21% to $66.87 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures decreased by 1.91% to $68.85 per barrel [4][4] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.10% to 97.59, with mixed movements against other currencies [4][4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting held on June 17-18 [1] - Participants agreed that economic activity continues to expand steadily, despite fluctuations in net exports affecting data [1] - The unemployment rate remains low, and the labor market is robust, although inflation rates are still slightly high [1] Group 2: Trump's Tariff Announcement - President Trump announced tariffs on products from several countries, effective August 1, 2025, with rates of 25% on Brunei and Moldova, 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, 20% on the Philippines, and 50% on all Brazilian products [2] - The announcement led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar, with a drop of up to 2% [2] - Brazilian stocks weakened overall, with Petrobras down nearly 2% and Vale down 1.35% following the tariff news [2] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - On July 9, U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the Nasdaq closing up nearly 1%, reaching a historical high [4] - Nvidia's stock rose by 1.8%, briefly surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [6] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market Update - Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $112,000, with a maximum increase of 3%, marking a year-to-date gain of approximately 19% [9] - Other cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum, SOL, and Dogecoin, also saw gains exceeding 4% within 24 hours [9]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced slight fluctuations with major indices showing mixed results, as investors remain cautious due to trade policy uncertainties under President Trump's latest tariff threats [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 165.6 points, a decrease of 0.37%, closing at 44,240.76 points; the S&P 500 index dipped by 4.46 points, down 0.07%, ending at 6,225.52 points; while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 5.95 points, an increase of 0.03%, closing at 20,418.46 points [1] Sector Performance - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index, only 5 sectors closed higher, with the energy sector leading the gains at 2.72%, benefiting from rising international oil prices [2] - The utilities and consumer staples sectors saw the largest declines, both dropping over 1% [2] Key Events - President Trump announced via social media that tariffs will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, following a delay from July 9 [2][3] - Market strategist Carol Schleif noted that the market is holding its breath for more details on tariffs, despite frequent policy signals causing disturbances [4] Technology Sector - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising by 1.11% to a record high of $160 per share, pushing its market capitalization above $3.9 trillion; however, Netflix, Amazon, and Google all fell by over 1% [5] - Tesla's stock increased by 1.3% [5] Chinese Stocks - Most popular Chinese stocks saw gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 0.71%; iQIYI surged over 3%, while JD.com and New Oriental both rose over 2%, and Alibaba increased by 1.62% [6] Individual Stock Highlights - Moderna, a vaccine manufacturer, surged by 8.8%, becoming the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 index amid criticisms of the US vaccine policy [7] - The renewable energy sector faced pressure after Trump directed federal agencies to review tax credits related to wind and solar energy, leading to declines in stocks like SunRun (down 11.4%) and Enphase Energy (down 3.6%) [7] Commodity Market - Copper stocks generally rose, with Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold increasing by 2.53% and Taseko Mines rising by 4.26%, following Trump's consideration of a 50% additional tax on copper imports [8] - The price of copper on the New York market spiked by 16% at one point [9] - In the broader commodity market, WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.59% to $68.33 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.82% to $70.15 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell by 0.77% to $3,316.9 per ounce [9]

Group 1: US Dollar - The Federal Reserve's research report warns of uncertain economic outlook potentially leading to zero interest rate risks [1] - Fed Chair candidate Walsh suggests interest rates should be lowered further [1] Group 2: Major Non-USD Currencies - ECB council member Centeno states that the timing and extent of further rate cuts are difficult to determine [2] - Fitch predicts Japan's debt trajectory will rise again by the end of this century [2] - ECB indicates that risks to financial stability in the Eurozone have increased due to rising global geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Japanese Prime Minister expresses regret over US tariff information and emphasizes ongoing negotiations [2] - South Korean Trade Minister states that a three-week extension of tariff suspension is insufficient and negotiations must accelerate [2] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa announces agreement with US Commerce Secretary to actively participate in trade talks, prioritizing national interests [2] - The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly keeps the benchmark interest rate at 3.85%, indicating a wait for more information to confirm sustainable inflation at 2.5% [2] - RBA Governor Bullock mentions a cautious and gradual easing stance is appropriate, with confidence in future rate cuts [2] - Australian Treasurer notes that the RBA's decision to maintain rates was not expected by millions of Australians or the market, clarifying future inflation and rate trajectories [2] Group 3: Other Developments - Emerging market ETFs see inflows for the sixth consecutive week, with China receiving the largest inflow [3] - The World Bank reports that Syria is facing a severe liquidity crisis due to cash shortages and broader disruptions in currency circulation [3] - Moody's maintains Israel's Baa1 rating while warning that conflict with Iran will increase fiscal pressure [3]