摘要今日周四(12月11日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4244美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4237.86美元/盎司，涨幅0.25%，最高上探至4247.50美元/盎司，最低触及4222.90美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 今日周四(12月11日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4244美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报4237.86 美元/盎司，涨幅0.25%，最高上探至4247.50美元/盎司，最低触及4222.90美元/盎司。目前来看，国际黄 金短线偏向看涨走势。 【要闻速递】 鲍威尔表示，这是一次"势均力敌的取舍"，给了美联储观察经济演变的空间。同时，他将全国通胀水平 上升归咎于特朗普的关税政策。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 凌晨三点，幸福酒吧里，黄金随着鲍威尔偏鸽派的讲话强势拉升，突破4230美元大关。从技术面来看， 黄金一小时级别均线多头排列，向上散发，动能强劲。多头已突破颈线，继续上扬。短线支撑关注 4210-4211起涨点，上方阻力则在4250一线。鉴于金价已加速上涨，整体思路应围绕逢低做多和强势做 多。 美国总统特朗普周三对美联储最新降息决定表示不满，认为降息25个基点 ...

当地时间周三，在2025年最后一次货币政策会议上，加拿大央行如期将基准利率维持在2.25%不变。 行 长麦克勒姆表示，尽管美国加征高额关税，但加拿大经济"整体仍展现出韧性"。 加拿大央行将基准利率继续锁定在2.25%，并称当前水平恰到好处。既有利于将整体通胀稳定在2%附 近，同时为受美国关税挤压的经济提供一定的刺激力度。 加拿大经济近期表现强于预期：第三季度年化GDP增长达2.6%，远超市场预期；9月至11月期间新增就 业岗位18.1万个。 麦克勒姆在开场白中强调，截至目前，经济表现仍具韧性，通胀压力总体可控，整体CPI略高于央行2% 的目标。"管委会认为，目前的政策利率大体处于合适水平，能够使通胀保持在接近2%的目标附近，同 时支持经济平稳运行。" 但麦克勒姆表示，不确定性仍然较高，一旦前景发生变化，央行已做好应对准备。这一措辞与10月会议 声明中的口径完全一致。 美联储也将在当地时间周三公布利率决议，多数经济学家预计该央行将降息25个基点。 麦克勒姆提醒称，尽管经济表现比预期坚挺，但四季度GDP增速大概率偏弱，企业招聘意愿也趋谨 慎。"在关税冲击与贸易波动双重作用下，季度数据起伏加剧，判断经济潜在动能的难 ...

尽管经济放缓的迹象日益明显，但由于通胀预期在可预见的未来仍将高于目标水平，巴西央行将关键利 率维持在近二十年来的最高水平。 责任编辑：王永生 尽管经济放缓的迹象日益明显，但由于通胀预期在可预见的未来仍将高于目标水平，巴西央行将关键利 率维持在近二十年来的最高水平。 Gabriel Galipolo领导的政策委员会周三一致投票决定维持Selic利率在15%不变，为连续第四次会议按兵 不动，与彭博调查的所有经济学家预期一致。政策制定者在2024年9月至今年6月期间将借贷成本提高了 4.5个百分点。 Gabriel Galipolo领导的政策委员会周三一致投票决定维持Selic利率在15%不变，为连续第四次会议按兵 不动，与彭博调查的所有经济学家预期一致。政策制定者在2024年9月至今年6月期间将借贷成本提高了 4.5个百分点。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting, with gold prices showing weakness and fluctuations expected in the short term [2][5]. Market Overview - Overnight London spot gold showed a slight decline, with COMEX February gold futures down approximately 0.6% and SHFE gold down 0.72% [2][5]. - The U.S. stock market retreated, the dollar returned to 99 points, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury reached a two-month high [2][5]. Federal Reserve Insights - Kevin Hassett, a potential future chair of the Federal Reserve, stated that it would be "irresponsible" for the Fed to announce a specific path for interest rate policy over the next six months, emphasizing decisions should be based on economic data [2][5]. - Jerome Powell has successfully fostered a consensus for a rate cut this week, with a December rate cut already forming a consensus in the market [2][5]. Economic Context - President Trump mentioned that the inflation issue in the U.S. has been largely resolved but denied the possibility of deflation [2][5]. - The focus remains on the future path of rate cuts and how the Federal Reserve will supplement liquidity in the financial markets [2][5].

摘要今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，纸黄金目前交投于950元附近，截至发稿，纸黄金暂报952.42元/克， 涨幅0.14%，最高触及954.06元/克，最低下探949.68元/克。目前来看，纸黄金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，工行纸黄金价格报953.56元/克，日内微涨0.26%，但较前一日高点954.06 元/克呈现回落迹象。 【要闻速递】 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文.哈塞特被视为美联储下任主席的热门人选。他近日表示，让美联储提前 设定未来六个月利率目标是不负责任的做法，强调应依据经济数据灵活调整政策。 哈塞特指出，美联储主席的职责是观察数据、做出调整并解释行动原因，而非预先承诺特定政策路径。 对于市场关注的降息次数问题，他拒绝给出具体预测，仅表示需密切关注经济数据。当前，美国总统特 朗普曾呼吁将基准利率降至2%以下，而市场预期本周美联储将降息25个基点。 哈塞特认为，鲍威尔在协调委员会意见方面表现出色，促成了降息共识。他还提到，人工智能领域的投 资可能带来积极供给冲击，为经济增长和降低通胀创造有利条件，进而对债券市场产生正面影响。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 纸黄金亚盘窄幅震荡于946- ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant decline in the share prices of non-ferrous metal companies, with Jiangxi Copper down 6.57% to HKD 33.56, Luoyang Molybdenum down 6.27% to HKD 17.93, China Aluminum down 4.73% to HKD 10.88, and Zijin Mining down 4.54% to HKD 32.4 [1] - Market expectations are shifting regarding interest rate adjustments by central banks, with the Bank of Japan anticipated to change its rate hike pace, and the European Central Bank's hawkish comments influencing market predictions for rate hikes next year [1] - Analysts suggest that the current market has largely priced in the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts this week, but there is a belief that the policy statement and comments from Chairman Powell may indicate a higher threshold for further rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities previously indicated that the current rate cut cycle may signal the arrival of a super cycle for industrial metals, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The firm is optimistic about the demand for copper driven by U.S. electricity investments by 2026, as well as the demand for aluminum spurred by energy storage and alternative needs [1] - The anticipated significant rise in industrial metal prices is expected to influence inflation expectations, leading to a recommendation to focus on the copper and aluminum sectors [1]

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced fluctuations and closed lower on December 8, with an opening price of $4,197.61 per ounce, a high of $4,218.88, a low of $4,176.12, and a closing price of $4,182.85 [1] Economic Indicators - The New York Federal Reserve's report indicated that while American households' inflation expectations remained stable, their views on current and future financial conditions became more pessimistic in November. Respondents reported a "notable deterioration" in their current financial outlook and a "slight deterioration" in their one-year outlook [3] - The report noted a decrease in the likelihood of unemployment in the coming year, reaching the lowest level since December 2024, while inflation expectations for the next year remained at 3.2%, unchanged from the previous month [3] - Medical cost expectations for the next year rose by 10.1%, the highest since January 2014, while expectations for income and wage growth remained positive [3] Federal Reserve Insights - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. economist, David Mericle, suggested that the Federal Reserve may not completely rule out the possibility of action in January, emphasizing the need for flexibility based on labor market data [4] - White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that it would be "irresponsible" for the Federal Reserve to announce its interest rate path for the next six months, advocating for data-driven adjustments [5] Geopolitical Developments - Ukrainian President Zelensky met with leaders from the UK, France, and Germany to discuss a peace plan aimed at resolving the Ukraine crisis, emphasizing the importance of unity between Europe and Ukraine [6] - Reports indicated that Zelensky is facing increasing pressure from the U.S. to accept significant territorial concessions as part of a peace plan proposed by Trump [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw a decrease in holdings by 1.14 tons, bringing the total to 1,049.11 tons [7] Market Predictions - According to CME's "FedWatch," there is an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 68.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by January [7] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed signs of a downward trend, with short-term indicators suggesting a potential bottoming risk. The market is advised to maintain a cautious trading strategy [10]

Group 1: Paramount's Acquisition Offer - Paramount announced a cash acquisition offer for Warner Bros. Discovery at a price of $30 per share, valuing the company at approximately $108.4 billion (around 760 billion RMB) [4] - The proposed transaction encompasses all of Warner Bros. Discovery's business operations [4] - This acquisition attempt comes shortly after Warner Bros. Discovery reached an agreement with Netflix for a deal worth $72 billion, which includes cash and stock [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Paramount's acquisition offer, Netflix's stock fell by 3.41%, closing at $96.82 per share, with a total market capitalization of $410.2 billion [4] - In contrast, Warner Bros. Discovery's stock rose by 4.41%, closing at $27.23 per share [4] Group 3: Broader Market Context - On the same day, major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by 215.67 points (0.45%) [1] - The tech sector saw mixed results, with significant declines in stocks like Google, Amazon, and Meta, while Microsoft and Nvidia saw gains [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The appointment process for the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly complex, with concerns about potential political influence affecting monetary policy decisions [2][3]. Group 1: Appointment Dynamics - President Trump has indicated he has chosen a successor for Fed Chair Powell, with NEC Director Kevin Hassett being named as a potential frontrunner [3]. - Concerns have arisen among investors that Hassett may prioritize appeasing Trump over maintaining the Fed's independence in setting interest rates [3][4]. - The potential nomination of Hassett has led to a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield by 11 basis points, reflecting market anxiety [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market participants are attempting to gauge the future Fed Chair's stance, whether dovish or hawkish, amidst uncertainty about how they will act once in position [5]. - If trust in the Fed's independence erodes, investors may demand higher returns on U.S. debt, which could inadvertently raise long-term interest rates [6]. Group 3: Structural Considerations - The Fed's decision-making structure, which includes multiple voting members, is designed to mitigate political influence, ensuring that the Chair cannot unilaterally dictate policy [6]. - The potential reshuffling of Trump's economic advisory team adds another layer of complexity to the appointment process, with implications for the NEC and CEA leadership [6][7]. Group 4: Legal and Political Challenges - The ongoing legal situation regarding Governor Lisa Cook's potential dismissal could significantly impact the composition of the Fed's board, raising questions about its political independence [8]. - If Cook loses her case, Trump could effectively shape the majority of the board, which may lead to concerns about the politicization of the Fed and its impact on inflation [9].

美国总统特朗普上周发出了迄今为止最强烈的暗示，表明他已选定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。投资者 对此表示担忧。 在对这十几位候选人进行了数月的猜测后，特朗普终于在上周表示，他知道谁将由他提名成为美国经济 中最有权势的人物。仅仅几天后，在一次内阁会议上，特朗普特别点名国家经济委员会（NEC）主任凯 文·哈塞特是"潜在的美联储主席"，并补充道，"我们被允许这么说吗？" 彭博11月25日的一篇报道称哈塞特是执掌美联储的"领跑者"，随后10年期美债收益率上涨了11个基点。 据英国《金融时报》援引知情人士的话称，债券投资者在上个月初告诉财政部，他们担心哈塞特会为了 安抚特朗普而极力推动大幅降低借贷成本。 但美联储利率制定委员会的结构有助于防范政治影响：美联储主席只是12名投票者中的一员，不能单方 面否决多数人的决定。 "会议桌上代表了各种观点和政策方针，然后每个人都有一票，"美联储理事会前顾问Bill English表 示。"设立委员会是有原因的，如果委员会不同意主席的意见，那么主席有可能输掉投票，虽然这种情 况在过去从未发生过。" 据该报道，财政部与"华尔街主要银行高管、资产管理巨头以及美国债务市场其他大玩家"进行的一对 ...