固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

荷兰国际：欧元涨势可能仍然有限 金十数据5月14日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Francesco Pesole在一份报告中称，受周二公布的低于预期的 美国通胀数据影响，欧元兑美元有所上涨，但进一步升值的空间可能有限。在市场预期美国经济数据将 继续疲软的背景下，投资者可能会继续押注美元走弱。然而，由于欧洲央行仍在持续降息，欧元"并未 处于一个特别有利的位置"以从这一趋势中受益。此外，在市场风险偏好改善的情况下，投资者更倾向 于转向高风险货币，而不是欧元。 ...

摘要 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1349 篇白话财经- - 今天，在港股表现不佳的背景下，A股出现震荡，最终仅有沪指收红。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/13，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额为1.29万亿元，盘面上，航运港口、光伏、银行板块逆势上涨。 分析人士认为，关税的转机、国内政策对冲都是市场重新加速上行的关键因素，有望带动市场风险偏好重新上行，看好内需、贸易恢复、科技三大主线。 港股大跌原因，还能涨12%？ 虽然昨天中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》大超预期，但今天，港股市场出现下跌，恒生指数下跌1.87%，恒生科技指数下跌3.26%。 1、今天，A股三大指数震荡分化，港股大跌，航运板块逆势上涨，关税缓和信号下，利好哪些板块？ 2、外资集体看好中国市场，花旗集团将预计到2026年上半年恒生指数将达到26000点，距离现在还有12%的上涨空间。 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】开户即可 领98元券包 ，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/5/13，不作投资推荐） 首先，是利好兑现后的获利回吐。 分析人士认为，关税谈 ...

从资产价格走势来看，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布后，金融市场出现"股涨、债跌、黄金跌"行 情。而之所以有此变化，不少接受《中国经营报》记者采访的业内人士提到，这是受益于中美日内瓦经 贸会谈联合声明内容超预期背景下，市场风险偏好的变化。 "'股涨'不仅仅来源于出口条件好转带来的市场条件好转，更有可能来自市场信心的提振。特别是对我 国出口韧性和反制美国限制行为能力的信心。"远东资信首席宏观研究员张林提到，A股市场或还将持 续表现，而债券市场则或受拖累于降准降息必要性的降低，以及对于经济基本面形势的向上调整，此外 黄金价格则可能受到美元指数上行的拖累。 深度参与市场的私募机构人士、畅力资产董事长宝晓辉进一步从全球资产配置的角度提到，大类资产的 走势换挡中，首先应关注黄金资产的变化。 "在中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明落地后，黄金市场出现显著波动，价格于高位快速回调。究其原因， 联合声明释放的关税议题缓和信号在极大程度上缓解了市场的避险需求。作为传统避险资产，黄金在贸 易摩擦加剧时往往备受投资者追捧；但随着局势转好，市场对避险资产的关注度降低，资金开始从黄金 市场抽离，进而引发价格下行。"宝晓辉提到。 在宝晓辉看来，第 ...

2025年5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《声明》）。资本市场反响热烈，恒 生指数大涨3%，人民币升破7.2关口。 一、双边关税：超预期大幅下行 结合双方信息，此次中美主要达成了三方面共识。 资料来源：招商银行研究院 二是双方同意设立中美经贸磋商机制， 定期在中、美或第三国开展对话，重点解决供应链安全、数字贸易规 则等议题。 三是达成部分产业共识， 美中双方已就五到六个具有战略意义的产业链供应链脆弱环节达成初步共识，如医 药和钢铁等行业，美国将在这些领域寻求供应链独立性，并优先从盟友国家获取稳定供应。 一是双边关税超预期大幅下行。美国方面，4月2日后对华加征的额外关税大幅降至10%， 还有24%的关税将 在"解放日"后的90天内暂停实施。如此一来，5月14日后，美国对华对等关税将由125%降至10%，此部分"基础 关税"或长期保留。叠加2-3月累计加征的20%"芬太尼"关税，特朗普2.0时期对华加征的关税将降至30%。特朗 普政府在对等关税的实施上对所有国家"一视同仁"，对中国也按下了暂停键。加上特朗普1.0时期所加征的关 税， 当前美国对华平均关税为42.7%。 结合各方信息研判 ...

13日早盘，两市股指全线高开，随后涨幅有所回落。到发稿，沪指小幅走高，创业板指涨近1%。 职业方面，家居、物流、医药、石油、钢铁等板块走强，航运概念、跨境电商、算力概念等活泼；军 工、稳妥、电力等板块走低。 昨日大幅拉升的港股回落走低，到发稿，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均跌超1%。 昨日下午，中美日内瓦经贸谈判联合声明发布，两边许诺将于2025年5月14日前采取修改加征的从价关 税等系列行动。 中航资本表明，此次关税下调的起伏大超商场预期，将明显提振商场心情，比如科技和外需板块，前者 受前期商场风险下行的压制，后者则受偏高关税税率影响较大。短期商场或重回风险偏好的心情中，前 期跌落较多的科技和外需板块或迎来节奏性修复。 A股短期震动偏强的趋势或许进一步加强，根本面预期的改进或许导致A股打破上行。一是近期A股震 动偏强的中心驱动要素或许进一步加强：首要，方针和流动性宽松是A股"五一"节后走强的主要驱动要 素，此次超预期大幅下降加征关税不会对国内方针和流动性宽松产生影响，反而或许进一步加大美联储 降息和人民币升值的预期，对流动性宽松预期有利；其次，中美平缓带来的风险偏好改进是推进近期走 势偏强的另一个中心要素，本次超 ...

昨日大幅拉升的港股回落走低，截至发稿，恒生指数、恒生科技指数均跌超1%。 昨日下午，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布，双方承诺将于2025年5月14日前采取修改加征的从价关 税等系列举措。 （原标题：A股早盘高开低走 港股回落走低） 13日早盘，两市股指全线高开，随后涨幅有所回落。截至发稿，沪指小幅走高，创业板指涨近1%。 行业方面，家居、物流、医药、石油、钢铁等板块走强，航运概念、跨境电商、算力概念等活跃；军 工、保险、电力等板块走低。 中信建投证券表示，此次关税下调的幅度大超市场预期，将明显提振市场情绪，比如科技和外需板块， 前者受前期市场风险下行的压制，后者则受偏高关税税率影响较大。短期市场或重回风险偏好的情绪 中，前期下跌较多的科技和外需板块或迎来节奏性修复。 华金证券认为，A股短期震荡偏强的趋势可能进一步加强，基本面预期的改善可能导致A股突破上行。 一是近期A股震荡偏强的核心驱动因素可能进一步加强：首先，政策和流动性宽松是A股"五一"节后走 强的主要驱动因素，此次超预期大幅降低加征关税不会对国内政策和流动性宽松产生影响，反而可能进 一步加大美联储降息和人民币升值的预期，对流动性宽松预期有利；其次，中美 ...

风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于 4 月中旬逐步企 稳反弹，目前已经回补了 4 月 7日的向下跳空缺口，上方正面临着今年一季度高点和去年四季度的成交 密集区的压力，预计继续反弹的阻力将有所增大，建议保持震荡市思维。 首先，中美贸易谈判取得实质性进展，市场风险偏好有所提升。新华社 5 月 11 日晚报道"中美经贸 高层会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设性，达成重要共识，并取得实质性进展。双方一致同意建立中美经贸磋 商机制。中美双方将尽快敲定相关细节，并将于 5 月 12 日发布会谈达成的联合声明"。周一下午三点， 新华社发布了《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，中美两国同时大幅下调之前加征的关税。中美经贸谈 判的效率和互相减免关税的幅度总体超出投资者预期，市场风险偏好有所上升。当然，4 月中旬以来市 场始终在交易贸易冲突的缓和，要看到市场已经计入一定改善预期。不悲不喜，谨慎应对仍是基本原 则。 其次，沪指高开高收，成交放大。周一，两市高开后一路向上反弹，收盘接近全天最高点。两市量 能在 1.3 万亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US tariff reduction exceeded expectations, improving global risk appetite. The capital market's risk preference was boosted, and the market pricing mainline might shift from tariff policies to fundamental factors [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions led to a decline in the demand for safe - haven assets, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Gold is in a phased adjustment, and the adjustment time is expected to be long [3][4]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. Copper prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term, supported by fundamentals but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar index [6][7]. - The progress of trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price rebounded. The continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory indicates that consumption still has resilience [8]. - The Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved significant progress, and the alumina price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover due to the improvement of both macro and fundamental aspects [9][10]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction agreement alleviated concerns about the US economic recession. Zinc prices first rose and then fell, and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term under the stimulation of macro - level benefits [11]. - The lead price was boosted by macro - level benefits but faced pressure at the integer level. There is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. - The reduction of Sino - US tariffs exceeded expectations, and the concern about the decline in tin demand eased. Tin prices were driven by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. - The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted risk preference. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the supply - demand imbalance [15][16]. - The trend of lithium carbonate prices is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend [17][18]. - The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded market expectations, and the Philippine nickel ore export ban might be implemented in June. Nickel prices are expected to rise [19][20]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade results were positive, the oil price might return to a downward trend due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and the mediocre demand growth [22][23]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak [24][25]. - The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly due to the improved market sentiment, although the supply is generally loose [26]. - The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper fell back after hitting 9600 US dollars. The spot market transaction was weak, and the LME inventory decreased to 19.1 million tons [6]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. The fundamentals still provide strong support, but the rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. LME aluminum rose 2.15%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline significantly, and the aluminum price tested the pressure above the 20,000 - yuan mark again [8]. 3.1.3 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose 0.67%. The supply decreased due to factory maintenance and production reduction, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover [9][10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of zinc first rose and then fell. The import of zinc ingots supplemented the market supply, and the downstream procurement was weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and gave back the gains at night. It is in the consumption off - season, the downstream procurement is insufficient, and there is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated sharply during the day and opened high and oscillated narrowly at night. The supply - demand is weak, and the tin price is driven by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated widely. The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded expectations, and the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban in June. The nickel price may rise [19][20]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.36%. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions reduced the demand for safe - haven assets, and the rebound of the US dollar index also pressured the prices [3]. 3.2 Energy 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The oil price has rebounded to near the previous high. Due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and mediocre demand growth, it may return to a downward trend [22][23]. 3.3 Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rose. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak, steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24][25]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rose. The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment improved. Although the supply is generally loose, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell. The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply - demand is imbalanced, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly. The trend is unclear due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [17][18].

中美关税冲突短期缓和 ——点评中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 Email：yangchang@zts.com.cn 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 2、双方在关税税率上达成较大幅度调降，表明双方对不希望出现贸易脱钩的极端情 况具有共识，关税冲突存在底线。由于谈判达成显著的实质性成果，市场风险偏好有 望短期缓和。 相关报告 3、联合声明强调"双方将建立机制，继续就经贸关系进行协商"，表明除了税率调降， 双方也达成机制性进展，未来"日内瓦机制"下的 90 天谈判期十分关键。预计美方 将进一步对华展开要价，谈判可能从关税延申至市场开放（加大购买）、服务贸易（知 识产权）以及投资等领域。 4、考虑到特朗普多变的重商主义行事风格、中美意识形态矛盾以及中国经济更加深 入的结构性变化，双方达成类似第一阶段经贸协议的 2.0 版可能会经历一定的博弈过 程，能否在 90 天内达成进展，从而使双方关税不再次急剧转变，还需要进一步观察， 因此不能排除关税反复风险。未来特朗普政府仍有涵盖药品、半导体等领 ...