Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the VLSFO cracking in Singapore further weakened. [3] - In terms of inventory, the residual fuel oil in Singapore, high - sulfur floating storage, ARA residual fuel oil, and Fujairah residual fuel oil all increased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased in stock, and the EIA residual fuel oil decreased in stock. [3][4] - This week, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market has support, but the short - term upward space is limited. [4] - The global residual fuel oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is currently no driving force. [4] 3. Summary of Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 4.89, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by 11.93, and the price of Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.76. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 6.43, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.93, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 9.91. [1][7] - **Spot Data**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 4.96, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 8.09, the 380 - basis data is incomplete, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 2.3. [2] Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - **FU Futures**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased by 49, 43, and 45 respectively. The price difference between FU 01 - 05 decreased by 6, the price difference between FU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the price difference between FU 09 - 01 increased by 4. [2] - **LU Futures**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased by 88, 69, and 62 respectively. The price difference between LU 01 - 05 decreased by 19, the price difference between LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and the price difference between LU 09 - 01 increased by 26. [3]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, and LME Copper are 4324.20, 62.98, 1775.00, 1558.00, and 11608.00 respectively, with changes of 8.35, -0.89, 1.00, 22.00, and -76.50 [3]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro to US Dollar, British Pound to US Dollar, and US Dollar to Japanese Yen are 98.22, 1.17, 1.34, and 154.73 respectively, with changes of -0.06, -0.00, 0.00, and -0.49 [3]. Group 2: Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, Gold ETF, and Silver ETF are - (not provided), 890.72, 1051.68, and 16018.29 respectively, with changes of - (not provided), 32.91, 0.00, and -42.31 [4]. - The latest deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are 1 and 2 respectively, with changes of 0.00 and 1.00 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices are gradually increasing due to tightening supply at the mining level, leading to a rapid decline in zinc processing fees and a boost from tight zinc concentrate supply, with the Shanghai zinc main contract reaching a peak of 23,730 yuan/ton and LME zinc hitting around 3,220 USD/ton [1] Group 1: Zinc Mining and Processing Fees - Global zinc mine production from January to September reached 9.361 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 7.5% year-on-year [2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in November was 311,400 tons, down 19,400 tons from October but up 5.2% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 3.369 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.7% year-on-year [2] - Domestic zinc processing fees have rapidly declined to 1,600 yuan/metal ton, while imported processing fees have also decreased to 50.56 USD/dry ton [2] Group 2: Domestic Refining and Production - Global refined zinc production in September was 1.195 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month decrease, with a cumulative production of 10.29 million tons from January to September [3] - In November, China's refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, down 22,000 tons month-on-month but up 16.7% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 6.2816 million tons, an increase of 607,000 tons or 10.7% year-on-year [3] - Some domestic refineries are reducing production due to rapidly declining processing fees, with theoretical production losses approaching 2,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has been continuously declining, with social inventory at 125,700 tons as of December 15, down 20,000 tons from the end of November [4] - LME zinc inventory has shown a slight increase after reaching a low point in October, with total inventory at 64,500 tons [4] - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has slightly rebounded, driven by strong demand for certain products, while some downstream sectors are experiencing weaker demand [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply side is tightening, providing stronger support for zinc prices, while short-term attention is needed on external pressures [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is sufficient and production profit is high, but downstream price - pressing is firm, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of both production and trading enterprises will increase slightly in the short term. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month. However, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. With the continuous increase in finished product inventory, there may be individual enterprises for overhaul or production reduction in the future. - The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 85 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract is 109,301 lots. - The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 4,560 tons. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies in different regions range from 10,700 to 10,950 yuan/ton, with price changes of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. - The basis of synthetic rubber is - 130 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, naphtha, Northeast Asian ethylene, and butadiene have different degrees of change. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The port inventory of butadiene has decreased by 5,200 tons. - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of full - steel tires is 590,000 pieces, and that of semi - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, and those of semi - steel tires are 45.51 days. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. [2] 3.5. Industry News - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. - In November, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75 million tons (- 5.44%) and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. - As of December 11, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 million tons (- 1.18%). [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The current stage of spot supply and demand for copper is still tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. The alumina market is in significant surplus, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts. The zinc market has a relatively balanced supply - demand relationship, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. The lead market is affected by overseas surplus pressure, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton. The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is more reasonable to short at high positions. The tin market emphasizes high - position risks. The lithium carbonate market has strong demand, and the price is in a strong shock. The industrial silicon market has a complex situation with supply reduction expectations and price fluctuations. The polysilicon market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, with wide - range fluctuations [1] Summary by Directory Copper - **Market situation**: LME copper briefly reached nearly $12,000, with short - term fluctuations around $11,900. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the market is concerned about the short - term balance - sheet expansion. Domestic high copper prices suppress consumption, and the social inventory of SW copper has increased to 164,500 tons. The goal of the price increase promoted by funds has basically been achieved, and some investment banks may raise the 2028 price target. The global visible inventory is high, and the surplus of refined copper is relatively stable in the UK market [1] - **Trend**: The current spot supply and demand are tight, and there is a probability that the upward trend of Shanghai copper will pause. Pay close attention to the phased reduction of positions, and be cautious about the performance of the M10 moving average. Old orders and new enterprises should wait and see, and pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea, which has been shut down for half a year, has been approved to restart, and there is an expectation of lower ore prices. The domestic alumina operating capacity remains at a historical high of 96 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina balance is in significant surplus, and the inventory has increased by 102,000 tons to 4.585 million tons. After the economic meeting, relevant domestic themes have fermented, but the fundamental pressure is difficult to change, and the rebound space of the alumina disk is limited before large - scale production cuts [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas monetary policy is loosening, and there is policy expectation after the domestic economic meeting. The supply - demand relationship in the aluminum market is relatively balanced, and the price is high. The short - term shock - strengthening trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 40 - day line, and if it is broken, the trend will turn to shock [1] Zinc - **Market situation**: After the Fed cut interest rates and expanded the balance sheet last week, the supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the export window has opened. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 64,500 tons. The IME plans to limit positions on key contracts on July 6, and the term structure of LME zinc has changed from B to C. The domestic refineries' zinc ingot supply is expected to decline by about 25,000 tons in December, and the social inventory of zinc has decreased to 128,200 tons. Some projects are rushing to work at the end of the year, and the orders for galvanized pipes are good [1] - **Trend**: The inventory structure at home and abroad has converged, and there is an opportunity for a cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy. Shanghai zinc is not regarded as a short - selling variety in the short term, and pay attention to the support at 22,800 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Market situation**: The export window is open, and the overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 235,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot is at a discount of $31.61/ton. The domestic lead concentrate market has tight supply, and some refineries are under maintenance. The downstream demand for lead - acid batteries is good at the end of the year, but the export is affected by anti - dumping duties [1] - **Trend**: The supply of lead ingots at home and abroad is sufficient, and the price of Shanghai lead may be supported at 16,800 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Shanghai nickel is under pressure and falling, and the stainless - steel price has also declined. The spot trading is extremely sluggish, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is high, and the support of high - nickel iron price rebound is weakening [1] - **Trend**: The inventory of Shanghai nickel is increasing, and the fundamental situation is weak. It is more reasonable to short at high positions [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The price of tin has continued to rise last week, showing the characteristics of "increasing positions and rising, reducing positions and adjusting", mainly driven by domestic funds. The market is concerned about the security situation in the east of Congo (Kinshasa) and northern Nigeria. The export volume of Indonesia in November reached a high of 2,458 tons. The potential consumption of the tin market may show a growth rate similar to that of copper and aluminum affected by the long - term global macro - economic trend, but the consumption structure will be more concentrated. The domestic and foreign tin inventories have increased [1] - **Trend**: Continue to emphasize high - position risks, and hold short - call options as the 2001 contract options are about to expire [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: The lithium carbonate futures have rebounded in shock, and the market trading is active. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 35,200 yuan/ton. The demand side is strong, with expected bright performance in new - energy vehicle sales in December and a supply - demand boom in the energy - storage market. The production of lithium carbonate in December is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [1] - **Trend**: The price of lithium carbonate futures is in a strong shock, and the short - selling side is relatively disadvantaged [1] Industrial Silicon - **Market situation**: The price of the main contract of industrial silicon has fallen to 8,200 yuan/ton, and then rebounded to 8,400 yuan/ton. Some enterprises in Xinjiang plan to stop production. The cost of petroleum coke has slightly decreased, and other costs are stable. The supply is expected to decrease due to weather and other reasons. The demand for polysilicon is stable, and the inventory of industrial silicon has increased by 3,000 tons to 661,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The establishment of the industrial silicon platform boosts sentiment [1] Polysilicon - **Market situation**: The spot price of polysilicon has continued to rise, and the 05 main contract is expected to break through the 3,000 - yuan/ton mark. The production of polysilicon in December has a limited month - on - month decline, and the production scheduling of silicon wafers has decreased by 16.5% month - on - month. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers has increased by 2,000 tons to 293,000 tons [1] - **Trend**: The futures and spot prices show different trends. The market is in a game between strong policy expectations and weak real - world fundamentals, and it will maintain wide - range fluctuations before the acquisition plan is further implemented [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Central Financial and Economic Work Conference determined the economic direction. With the improvement of market sentiment boosted by macro - policies, the polyolefin market stopped falling and rebounded. However, the current weak supply - demand fundamentals provide insufficient support for prices [3]. - For PE, the supply is expected to be loose and the demand is weak, with high inventory pressure and limited oil - based cost support. The short - term fundamentals are difficult to be substantially boosted, and the rebound space is limited [3]. - For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, the demand follow - up is insufficient, the inventory level is high, and the cost support is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L主力合约收盘价为6557元/吨（+71），PP主力合约收盘价为6254元/吨（+125）；LL华北现货为6500元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6580元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6200元/吨（+0）；LL华北基差为 - 57元/吨（-71），LL华东基差为23元/吨（-71），PP华东基差为 - 54元/吨（-125） [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率为84.1%（+0.1%），PP开工率为78.3%（+0.7%） [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE油制生产利润为183.5元/吨（-105.5），PP油制生产利润为 - 436.5元/吨（-105.5），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 817.3元/吨（+75.2） [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL进口利润为 - 112.2元/吨（-116.8），PP进口利润为 - 322.4元/吨（-26.9），PP出口利润为 - 10.6美元/吨（+3.4） [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE下游农膜开工率为46.4%（-1.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.6%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.1%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62.9%（+0.3%） [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply side, in December, the overall PE maintenance volume is not high, and the planned maintenance volume in the future is also relatively limited. The PE start - up is expected to continue to rise, and a new 500,000 - ton FDPE device of BASF is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, so the supply pressure is continuous. Demand side, the overall downstream start - up of PE continues to decline, with the agricultural film start - up entering the off - season, and the demand for packaging film also weakening. Inventory side, although the PE social inventory is decreasing, the absolute inventory levels of LL and LD are still high, and the inventory pressure is expected to be large. Cost side, the oil price trend is weak, and the oil - based cost support is relatively limited [3]. - **PP**: Supply side, the previously shut - down enterprises are gradually restarting, the planned maintenance volume is relatively small, and the supply is expected to remain high. Demand side, the downstream demand start - up of BOPP, plastic weaving, etc. is okay, but the downstream replenishment is cautious. Inventory side, the overall inventory level is still high. Cost side, the international oil price is weak, and the cost support of PDH is weakened. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to cost and supply changes [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see [5]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Go long on the L05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low; go long on the PP05 - 09 inter - period spread when it is low [5]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Short the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent operation of PTA plants has been stable. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, driving the strengthening of the spot basis. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, at low prices, some domestic ethylene - based MEG plants have reduced their loads, and the weekly start - up rate has dropped below 70%. With the restart and load increase of Zhengdaikai, the start - up rate will moderately recover. The arrival of foreign MEG ships this week has returned to normal, and the upward trend of port inventory can be moderately alleviated. Fundamentally, MEG shows a loose balance due to supply contraction this month, but there is a lack of confidence and obvious driving force in the market under the medium - and long - term inventory accumulation expectation. It is expected that MEG will be adjusted at a low level in the near future, and attention should be paid to the cost side and plant changes [6]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, the spot basis was relatively strong, and individual polyester factories replenished their stocks. Individual mainstream suppliers offered far - term cargoes. The December cargo was mainly traded at a discount of about 20 points to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 20. The spot price is 4615, the 01 contract basis is - 13, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - MEG: On Monday, the ethylene glycol futures opened higher and traded in a narrow range, and the market negotiation was average. The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated in a narrow range. The spot negotiation and trading this week and next week were carried out at a discount of 10 - 24 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and some traders were actively involved in spot quoting. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer market strengthened. Recently arrived cargoes were traded at around 430 - 431 US dollars/ton, and individual traders participated in inquiries. The cargoes for shipment at the end of December and in January were negotiated at 434 - 435 US dollars/ton, and those for shipment at the end of January and in February were negotiated at around 438 - 439 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 3640, the 01 contract basis is - 11, and the futures price is at a premium. The total inventory in the East China region is 75.8 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [6]. 3.今日关注 - No relevant content provided 4.基本面数据 - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the EG production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, EG consumption, total demand, port inventory, and inventory change from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. - Price: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fibers from December 11 to December 15, 2025, as well as the changes in basis, spreads, and processing fees [12]. 5.影响因素总结 - Positive factors: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently, and it is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of about 10 days [8]. - Negative factors: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted after a short - term shutdown in late November. A 260,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has been restarted as planned last weekend after a shutdown in early October [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, and commodity futures, offering insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price forecasts for each sector [2][17][62] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On December 15, A - share major indices declined. The market lacked a clear upward trend, and investors were advised to be cautious about chasing highs in the volatile range and consider light - position bullish spread strategies [6][7][8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond markets were insensitive to economic data. The 30 - year bond led the decline, and the yield curve steepened. Short - term strategies included waiting and observing, and considering positive spreads and basis widening opportunities for the 2603 contract [9][10][11] Precious Metals - Gold prices fluctuated, and silver, platinum, and palladium showed strength driven by financial and industrial attributes. In the short term, gold's upward momentum was limited, while silver might face over - bought risks. Platinum and palladium were expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [12][14][15] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract showed an upward trend. The spot market was slowly rising, and it was expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [17] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices were in a high - level oscillation. The market was cautious, and long - term long positions were recommended. The main contract was expected to find support at 90000 - 91000 [17][18][21] - **Alumina**: The price was expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate. Short - term traders could consider light - position long positions or selling out - of - the - money put options [22][23][24] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices were expected to remain relatively strong in the short term but were at risk of a pull - back. Long positions were recommended when the price was low [24][25][27] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market was in a state of strong cost support and weak demand. It was expected to oscillate in a high - level narrow range [27][28][29] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated. The supply side was gradually shifting from loose to tight, and cross - market reverse arbitrage was recommended [30][31][33] - **Tin**: Tin prices declined due to a significant increase in Indonesian tin exports. However, the fundamentals remained strong, and long positions were recommended [33][34][37] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices were expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 110000 - 118000 [2][37][39] - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless steel prices were expected to adjust weakly in the short term, with the main contract ranging from 12200 - 12800 [40][41][42] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was affected by news and was expected to remain strong in the short term. It was recommended to wait and observe [43][44][46] - **Polysilicon**: The supply was excessive, and the demand was weak. The futures price was strong, but the spot market was weak. It was recommended to wait and observe [47][48][49] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price was expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [49][50] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices were expected to stabilize. Attention could be paid to the opportunity of the expanding ratio of rebar to iron ore [51][52][53] - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices were expected to be weak. Short - selling at high prices and cross - commodity arbitrage were recommended [54][55] - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal prices were expected to rebound in the short term. Short - term long positions or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage were recommended [4][56][58] - **Coke**: Coke prices were expected to rebound in the short term. Short - term long positions or 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage were recommended [59][60][61] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean market lacked highlights. Attention should be paid to China's soybean customs clearance policy. The domestic soybean meal market was expected to be weak, and attention could be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread [62][63][64] - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand both increased. The market was affected by the epidemic and secondary fattening. The spot price was expected to grind at the bottom [66][67] - **Corn**: The corn price was expected to have limited downward adjustment. Attention should be paid to the follow - up supply and downstream replenishment [68][69] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price was bearish, and the domestic sugar price was expected to be weak [70][71] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price was expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance level at 14050 - 14100 [72][73] - **Eggs**: The egg supply was relatively abundant, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate weakly [76] - **Oils**: The US biofuel blending quota was undecided, which might be bearish for the oil market [77][78] - **Jujubes**: The jujube price was expected to have limited decline. High - selling and low - buying strategies were recommended [79][80] - **Apples**: The apple price was affected by high prices and was expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal consumption [81] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: PX was expected to oscillate in the short term, with the price range of 6600 - 7000 [82][83] - **PTA**: PTA was expected to oscillate in the short term, with the price range of 4500 - 4800, and a 5 - 9 positive spread was recommended [84] - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber prices were expected to follow the raw materials and oscillate. The processing fee should be shorted when it was high [85][86] - **Bottle Chips**: The bottle chip processing fee was expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the restart and commissioning of devices [87][88] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol was expected to oscillate at a low level. Selling call options was recommended [89] - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene was expected to oscillate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [91] - **Styrene**: Styrene was expected to oscillate in the range of 6400 - 6700 [92][93] - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE remained stable. Attention should be paid to the replenishment of the industrial chain [94] - **PP**: PP showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Attention should be paid to the PDH profit [95] - **Methanol**: Methanol was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Buying at a low price was recommended for the 05 contract [95][96] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda prices were expected to be weak [96][97][98] - **PVC**: PVC prices were expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [99] - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices were expected to continue to decline. Short - selling on rebounds was recommended [100][101] - **Glass**: Glass prices were expected to continue to decline. A bearish strategy was recommended [100][101][103] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber prices were expected to oscillate in the range of 15000 - 15500. Waiting and observing was recommended [103][104][105] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber was expected to oscillate in the short term. Selling call options was recommended [105][106][107]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of synthetic rubber is sufficient and the production profit is high, but the downstream is firm in pressing prices, resulting in high pressure on the spot market. It is expected that the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises will both increase slightly in the short term. The resumption of production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises to increase month - on - month, but it is in the seasonal off - season, with a slow overall shipment rhythm and limited capacity utilization rate increase. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may overhaul or reduce production in the future. The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,300 and 11,000 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,845 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 125 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 98,043, with a month - on - month increase of 8,209. The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,650 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 10,700 yuan/ton; and that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 10,900 yuan/ton, all with no month - on - month change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 61.12 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 57.44 US dollars/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 548.75 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.5 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 745 US dollars/ton, with no month - on - month change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 870 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, with no month - on - month change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.17%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 35,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,200 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 55.9%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 percentage points [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 70.69%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 349 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 135 yuan/ton. The weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 26,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 600 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 5,450 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 220 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 71.57%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.65 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.07%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1.301 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 59,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5.831 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 663,000 pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 40.58 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.07 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.51 days, with a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points. The resumption of production scheduling of previously overhauled enterprises has driven the capacity utilization rate. In November, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 130,100 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in November was 68.13%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.27 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.53 percentage points. As of December 11, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.18% [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a seasonal reduction in domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories from December to January 2025, with uncertainties in soybean meal supply in Q1 2026. The overall market is expected to be stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [6][7] - Delays in customs clearance in China are favorable for near - month contracts and positive spreads. Weak US soybean exports, lack of significant weather - related speculation in South America, and expected pressure on Brazilian premiums suggest that the M05 contract may be relatively weak [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis of the 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) varies by region, with values such as 97 in Dalian, 37 in Tianjin, 32 in Rizhao, etc. on December 12 [4] - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong is 113, with a change of 74 [4] - Various spread data are provided, including the RM1 - 5 spread of 64 with a change of - 14, and the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot in the east) of 300 and (main contract) of 672 with a change of - 2 [4][5] 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 2.9 billion bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). Brazilian new - crop production in 25/26 is predicted to reach 1.776 billion tons [6] - As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 86%, compared to 78% last week, 90% last year, and a five - year average of 84.4%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean planting progress was 36% [6] - Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and the soybean meal inventory is being depleted slowly [5][7] 3.3 Supply, Demand, and Market Outlook - In terms of supply, US soybean yield may be further adjusted downwards due to less rainfall in the production area from August to September, and there is uncertainty in exports. Brazilian and Argentine planting progress and future precipitation conditions are also mentioned. In China, the supply of soybean meal in Q1 2026 is uncertain [6][7] - On the demand side, high livestock and poultry inventories in the short - term support feed demand, but low breeding profits and national policies may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream trading and good提货 performance recently [7] - Overall, the market is expected to be near - strong and far - weak, with customs clearance delays in China being a positive factor for near - month contracts and positive spreads [7]