Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recent resistance in raw material butadiene price support has weakened the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber. With the restart of most cis - butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, supply is expected to increase. This week, under the boost of macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decrease in the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in trader inventory. After some devices restart next week, domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream price - pressing procurement and wait - and - see sentiment may drive up production enterprise inventory. - Last week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, pulling up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The maintenance of individual all - steel tire enterprises slightly dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. This week, the production of maintenance enterprises will return to normal, and there is room for a restorative increase in capacity utilization, which will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. - The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,800 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 18,411, down 2,292. - The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 25 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,100 tons, unchanged. - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong was 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of synthetic rubber was 30 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. - Brent crude oil was 68.52 US dollars/barrel, down 0.19 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was 66.38 US dollars/barrel, down 0.14 US dollars/barrel. - Naphtha CFR Japan was 581.38 US dollars/ton, down 2.37 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,060 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, down 2.02 percentage points. - The port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, up 1,270 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 46.14%, up 1.17 percentage points. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, down 1.44 percentage points. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, down 362 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,800 tons, down 400 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,500 tons, up 150 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,270 tons, down 530 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.92%, up 2.51 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.56%, up 0.81 percentage points. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 5,523,000 pieces, up 108,000 pieces. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.67 days, up 0.22 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.76 days, down 0.72 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 16, 2025 (Week 29), the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,300 tons, down 500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59%. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The resumption of production of semi - steel tire enterprises that had maintenance at the beginning of the month boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises, while the maintenance of individual all - steel tire sample enterprises dragged down the all - steel tire capacity utilization rate. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% from May and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High - level oscillation, strategic allocation [1] - Silver: High - level oscillation, maintain a long - position mindset [1][3] - Copper: Oscillation, long - term bullish, short - term pay attention to the risk of pullback [1][6] - Zinc: Under pressure, seize short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][9] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][11] - Nickel: Under pressure, focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1][13] - Industrial silicon: High - level operation [1] - Polysilicon: High - level operation, take appropriate profit - taking for long positions [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global order is being reshaped, with fiscal and monetary double - easing trends remaining unchanged, and gold is in a long - term bull market. However, short - term adjustments may occur, and the US dollar is in a medium - term weak trend [3]. - For copper, although there is a risk of short - term pullback due to inventory and demand factors, the long - term outlook is positive as copper is an important strategic resource and the global copper mine shortage is difficult to alleviate [6]. - Zinc is facing short - term pressure due to factors such as the repair of processing fees, anti - dumping of overseas steel, and tariff uncertainties. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens [9]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, inventory accumulates, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [11]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to factors such as tariff disturbances, weak terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [13]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are at high levels, but there are also factors restricting their upward movement, such as high inventory for industrial silicon and high prices and margin increases for polysilicon [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a high - level oscillation, with the market affected by rumors and inventory contradictions, and the fundamentals have marginally improved but the inventory accumulation trend remains [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Gold and silver maintained high - level oscillation due to low US inflation, ongoing tariff negotiations, and the possible dismissal of Powell [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US inflation was lower than expected in June; Trump considered dismissing Powell, threatening the independence of the Fed; there are geopolitical issues regarding the Iran nuclear problem; and there are still many tariff variables, with the global order reshaping and fiscal - monetary double - easing trends unchanged [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760, and the long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Silver has support at 9000, and a long - position mindset should be adopted [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 78,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. The production of electrolytic copper has increased due to new smelter projects. The inventory of LME copper increased by over 10,000 tons, and there are concerns about the return of excess copper inventory from the US to the Asian market. The downstream start - up rate has increased, and the demand from the power and automotive sectors has offset the weak demand from the real estate construction sector [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be vigilant about the pullback pressure caused by the verification of demand, but expect the deep decline of copper prices to be limited. Consider buying on dips after pullbacks. In the long run, be confident in the upward trend of copper prices. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [77,000 - 79,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9600 - 9800] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, with narrow - range oscillation [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc ore is expected to be loose in 2025, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates have continued to rebound. The domestic inventory has slightly increased, and the LME zinc inventory increased by 7.7% overnight. The start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is affected by the weak steel demand [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure to decline. In the long run, supply increases while demand weakens. Seize short - selling opportunities on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21,800 - 22,200] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2680 - 2780] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina prices declined [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the operating capacity remains high, the inventory has increased, and the demand is in the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite remains high, and some domestic enterprises have carried out maintenance and production suspension, but the overall supply - demand structure is expected to remain loose [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the change in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to operate in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure to rebound, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the overseas environment is uncertain, and the price of Philippine nickel ore may continue to weaken. The domestic supply - demand situation has improved limitedly, and the inventory has accumulated again. For stainless steel, the production reduction intensity has weakened, and the inventory pressure has reappeared in the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and closed higher, with shrinking trading volume [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply and demand have both increased, but the total inventory has reached a new high and has been accumulating for 6 consecutive weeks. The supply has increased significantly, and the terminal demand has both positive and negative factors. The main contract is difficult to decline deeply but is also restricted by high inventory [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It will operate at a high level in the short term, with the range of [65,500 - 67,500] yuan/ton [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures showing a volatile trend, closing with a doji star, accompanied by shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator is declining, and the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing while the short - side strength is increasing. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to expect a volatile consolidation [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. The global zinc ore production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,070, and the basis was +40, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On July 16, the LME zinc inventory increased by 2,750 tons to 121,350 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 977 tons to 12,161 tons, which is a negative factor [2]. 4. Market Quotes 4.1 Futures Exchange Quotes on July 16 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally declined. For example, the contract 2508 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,045, a decrease of 60; the contract 2509 had a previous settlement of 22,105, a closing price of 22,030, a decrease of 75 [3]. 4.2 Domestic Spot Market Quotes on July 16 - The price of zinc concentrate was 16,800 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc ingot was 22,070 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of galvanized sheet was 3,949 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,289 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy was 22,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of zinc powder was 26,790 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of zinc oxide was 20,450 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4.3 National Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 3 - July 14, 2025) - The total inventory in major domestic markets increased from 63,900 tons on July 3 to 74,200 tons on July 14. Compared with July 7, it increased by 4,200 tons; compared with July 10, it increased by 1,500 tons [5]. 4.4 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on July 16 - The total zinc warrants in Shanghai were 25 tons (unchanged); in Guangdong, 3,607 tons (unchanged); in Jiangsu, 0 tons (unchanged); in Zhejiang, 0 tons (unchanged); in Tianjin, 8,529 tons (an increase of 977 tons), with a total of 12,161 tons (an increase of 977 tons) [6]. 4.5 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 16 - The total LME zinc inventory was 121,350 tons, an increase of 2,750 tons compared to the previous day. The registered warrants were 97,375 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 23,975 tons, with a cancellation ratio of 19.76% [8]. 4.6 National Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on July 16 - Zinc concentrate prices in most regions were around 16,800 - 17,000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 80 yuan/ton [9]. 4.7 National Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on July 16 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, such as Hunan Zhizhixing with a price of 22,410 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry with 25,350 yuan/ton, etc. [13]. 4.8 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15]. 4.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on July 16 - The processing fees for domestic 50% grade zinc concentrate were mainly in the range of 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 50 - 70 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 4.10 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on July 16 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2509 contract, the top three were Guotai Junan (22,277 lots, an increase of 658), CITIC Futures (18,260 lots, a decrease of 1,345), and Huatai Futures (13,749 lots, a decrease of 287). In the long - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (20,394 lots, a decrease of 831), Qiankun Futures (7,436 lots, a decrease of 889), and Guotai Junan (7,280 lots, a decrease of 376). In the short - position ranking, the top three were CITIC Futures (11,003 lots, an increase of 291), Guotai Junan (9,558 lots, an increase of 1,347), and Zhongtai Futures (4,612 lots, an increase of 110) [18].

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - LME three-month copper closed at $9,635.00 per ton, down $10.50 or 0.11%, retreating from a recent high of over $10,000 on July 2 [1] - Investors are focusing on the potential increase in copper supply, with no new supply disruption factors currently pushing prices up [5] - LME copper inventory increased by 10,525 tons on Wednesday, marking a 33% surge over the past two and a half weeks [5] Group 2: Global Copper Production and Consumption - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a global refined copper production of 2.3775 million tons and consumption of 2.2933 million tons for May 2025, resulting in a surplus of 84,200 tons [5] - For the first five months of 2025, global refined copper production was 11.2979 million tons, with consumption at 11.0344 million tons, leading to a surplus of 263,400 tons [5] - Rio Tinto announced a 9% year-on-year increase in quarterly copper production, forecasting that annual production will reach the high end of its guidance range [5] Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Currency Fluctuations - Following the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. effective August 1, traders expecting tariffs have gradually reduced copper exports to the U.S. [5] - A weaker U.S. dollar typically makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, potentially influencing demand [4] Group 4: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month tin fell by $513.00 or 1.54%, closing at $32,799.00 per ton, amid concerns over supply surplus [7] - The International Tin Association indicated that tin shipments from Myanmar's Wa State are expected to resume in the coming months after nearly two years of mining bans [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully impact the CL spread in the short - term due to high US copper inventory. Attention should be paid to tariff exemptions for some countries. After the tariff implementation, the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and low - inventory trading opportunities [1]. - For zinc, prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, demand is seasonally weak at home and weak in Europe overseas. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory. The strategy is to short zinc on rebounds, hold long positions in the domestic - foreign positive spread, and look for long positions in the monthly spread [2]. - For nickel, supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continued to be monitored [6]. - For stainless steel, supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - For lead, prices decline slightly. Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. - For tin, prices fluctuate widely. Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. - For industrial silicon, production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. - For lithium carbonate, futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 165, and LME inventory increased by 850 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports. The US has filled its annual copper import gap, and the CL spread may not fully reflect the tariff. The export of South American countries may be affected, and the low inventory in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price changed by 40, and LME inventory increased by 11425 tons [1]. - **Market Situation**: Supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply - demand is balanced in July [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 30, and LME inventory increased by 5200 tons [2]. - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply is expected to increase, domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand is also weak. There is a risk of a squeeze in overseas LME inventory [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1550, and LME inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable overseas and slightly decreasing at home. After the cancellation of the Philippine ore export ban, concerns are relieved [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the 201 cold - rolled coil price increased by 50 [10]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is reduced, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventory is slightly increasing [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the lead price decreased slightly, and LME inventory increased by 10125 tons [12][21]. - **Market Situation**: Supply is weak, demand is uncertain, and there is a seasonal peak expectation in July. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the LME tin inventory decreased by 115 tons [14]. - **Market Situation**: Supply may decline in July - August, demand is weak, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. Attention should be paid to news from the Wa State mines [14]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the 421 Yunnan and Sichuan basis decreased by 90, and the 553 East China and Tianjin basis increased by 60 [17]. - **Market Situation**: Production is expected to decline, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. If the start - up does not recover significantly, the price is expected to oscillate [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 9 - 15, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices increased by 250, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1 [19]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices rebound. Supply - demand is strong, and the absolute price is expected to oscillate. A downward turn requires significant inventory accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot goods [19].

Consumption - Consumer goods consumption remains stable, with automotive sales showing a decline compared to the previous week, and a year-on-year growth rate also decreasing[6] - Service consumption is affected by weather conditions, with travel, cinema, and amusement park attendance showing weak performance[6] - Food and beverage prices have rebounded, but the year-on-year decline in agricultural product prices is still expanding[6] Investment - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a total of 2.4 trillion yuan issued by July 12, 2025, and 228.29 billion yuan in the first two weeks of July[16] - New housing sales in 30 cities have seen a seasonal decline, with a year-on-year drop narrowing from 22.2% to 20.0%[16] - The land market is cooling, with land transaction area decreasing and premium rates dropping to 4.88%[16] Trade - Import growth from South Korea to China has slowed to 2.2%, while Vietnam's export growth remains strong at 19.3%[22] - Port operations are slowing down, with a decline in the number of ships and cargo throughput at major ports[22] - Export freight rates have decreased by 2.2% compared to the previous week[22] Production - Overall production is stable, with electricity consumption rising due to high temperatures, and traditional industries like steel and petrochemicals performing steadily[28] - The photovoltaic sector shows marginal recovery, while the automotive industry also experiences slight improvements[28] Inventory - Construction materials are undergoing destocking, with coal inventories at ports decreasing and remaining at average levels for the same period[41] - The PTA industry chain shows a divergence in inventory trends, with upstream destocking and downstream restocking continuing[41] Prices - Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are both showing marginal increases, with transportation and communication being major contributors to price rises[44] - Prices of pork and vegetables have rebounded, while logistics costs continue to decline[44] Liquidity - The US dollar index has risen by 89 basis points, influenced by strong US employment data, with the dollar to yuan exchange rate increasing from 7.165 to 7.171[46] - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 and DR007 rising by 2 and 5 basis points respectively[46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - BZ futures discount has narrowed, and the strong downstream demand for BZ has led to a decline in pure benzene port inventory from a high level. The high operating rates of downstream styrene and CPL support the demand, and the increase in polymer MDI operating rate drives up the aniline operating rate. However, the sustainability of CPL's high operating rate is still questionable due to the decline in PA6 and nylon filament operating rates. On the supply side, the pressure of South Korea's exports to China remains, and domestic production operating rates are still high, resulting in the continued weak consolidation of pure benzene processing fees. For styrene, port inventory has further increased, and the EB basis has rapidly declined. Domestically, EB maintains a high operating rate on the supply side, while on the demand side, the operating rates of EPS and PS drag down EB demand [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - The report mentions various basis and spread data of pure benzene and EB, including pure benzene's main basis, the spread between pure benzene spot and M2 paper goods, the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts of pure benzene, EB's main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - continuous contracts of styrene [1][13][19]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Data on production profits and domestic - foreign spreads of pure benzene and styrene are presented, such as naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, non - integrated production profits of styrene, and differences in FOB prices of pure benzene and styrene in different regions [25][26][37]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - Pure benzene port inventory is 16.40 million tons (-1.00 million tons), and styrene's East China port inventory is 138,500 tons (+27,000 tons), and its East China commercial inventory is 45,000 tons (+6,000 tons). The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products and styrene is also given, like the operating rate of styrene is 79.2% (-0.8%) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - For styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 310 yuan/ton (+198 yuan/ton), PS production profit is -190 yuan/ton (+98 yuan/ton), ABS production profit is 408 yuan/ton (+109 yuan/ton). The operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS are 51.06% (-4.82%), 51.10% (-1.30%), and 65.00% (-0.04%) respectively, and the downstream operating rates are at a seasonal low [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Data on the operating rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products are provided, such as the operating rate of caprolactam is 95.72% (+0.00%), the production profit of caprolactam is -1,895 yuan/ton (-5 yuan/ton), etc. [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene [4]. - Basis and Inter - period: For the near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, conduct reverse arbitrage when the price is high [4]. - Cross - variety: Narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Urea: The recent decline in the futures market is due to weak domestic demand, with summer agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand affected by high temperatures. Although export quotas are being implemented, the second - batch quota has not circulated, so the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures market may face pressure in the short term [6]. - Methanol: The inland market's maintenance has peaked, and production is expected to increase in late July. The port market faces dual pressures, with expected arrivals of 125 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO, which will reduce ethylene demand. It is expected that the port will experience a slight inventory build - up in July, but the absolute inventory is low, with limited upside and downside, suggesting interval operations [9]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is improving, but high import expectations and high port inventories limit its upward momentum. Downstream price transmission is poor, restricting its rebound. It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For styrene, high industry profits have led to high - level operations, but some downstream losses and high finished - product inventories have led to production cuts. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and short - term basis may face pressure [11]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda spot market is generally stable, with some downstream demand support. There is an upward price expectation in the peak season. The PVC market has shown signs of a pull - back after a rise. The supply - demand pattern is in a off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak procurement enthusiasm. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices fluctuated within a range. The macro - risk has eased, and the short - term supply concern has dissipated. Although China's refinery operating rate has reached a 10 - month high, it is overshadowed by macro - negatives. Short - term band strategies are recommended, and options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [24]. - Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP): Both PP and PE show a supply contraction, with compressed weighted profits and marginal profit repair. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, with inventory accumulation and weak apparent demand. In July, the supply pressure is not significant, and inventory reduction has improved. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and LP250 can be taken as a profit - taking point for arbitrage [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, the supply - demand is expected to remain tight, but the upward rebound is under pressure. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand is turning to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand has an improvement expectation, but the absolute price follows the cost [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 15, the 01, 05, 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all declined compared to July 14, with the 09 contract having the largest decline of 1.87% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread of 01 - 05 contract decreased by 128.57% [2]. - **Main Positions**: The number of long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3.47%, while the number of short positions increased by 4.39% [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined, with the largest decline of 3.72% in Northeast China [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Daily production remained stable, while weekly production increased by 1.12%. Factory and port inventories changed, with factory inventory decreasing by 4.99% and port inventory increasing by 10.98% [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 and MA2509 contract prices declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and society all increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, while some downstream operating rates changed, with the water - coal slurry operating rate increasing by 1.69% [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some links in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed slightly, with the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreasing by 0.1% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products were mostly stable on July 15, with some minor declines in futures prices [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 3.8%, and the export profit decreased significantly. The export profit of PVC increased slightly [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand - side operating rates of downstream industries also changed [18][19][20]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, Brent crude oil declined by 0.72%, WTI increased by 0.54%, and SC decreased by 1.26%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [24]. - **Refining Spreads**: The refining spreads of various refined products changed, with the European diesel refining spread increasing by 4.89% [24]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Spot prices also decreased slightly [43]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries changed slightly, and inventories increased [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [47]. - **Supply - Demand and Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.6% and the polyester bottle - chip operating rate decreasing by 4.7% [47].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, with cost - demand game and tariff policies as the main logics, the market is expected to be volatile today due to factors like OPEC's continuous production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - For PP, also under the influence of cost - demand game and tariff policies, the market is expected to be volatile today considering OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with continuous production increase for four months. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current LL delivery spot price is 7210 (-50), showing a generally bearish situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2509 contract is - 11, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today due to factors such as OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new production capacity release and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The current PP delivery spot price is 7180 (-0), with a generally bearish situation. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2509 contract is 165, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today due to OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Spot and Futures Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7210 (-50), the 2509 contract price is 7221 (-63), and the basis is - 11 [4][10]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (-0), the 2509 contract price is 7015 (-52), and the basis is 165 [7][10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].