【苯乙烯现货】 华东市场苯乙烯市场小幅震荡，至收盘现货7530-7560，7月下7500-7550（8合约+265~290），8月下 7380-7420（08合约+150），9月下7300-7330（09合约+150），单位：元/吨。 【纯苯现货】 纯苯市场先跌后低位反弹，截至收盘江苏港口现货商谈5810/5820元/吨，7月下商谈5860/5865元/吨，8 月下商谈5900/5910元/吨，9月下商谈5915/5925元/吨。 苯乙烯下游：截至6月26日，EPS产能利用率59.72%，环比+6.09%；PS产能利用率57.4%，环比-1.3%； ABS产能利用率66%，环比+2.03%。 【苯乙烯行情展望】 纯苯市场先跌后低位反弹。开盘市场依旧延续交易纯苯供应回归和部分新装置投产，价格偏弱运行，下 午原油及苯乙烯盘面反弹提振，纯苯市场商谈跌幅放缓，低位反弹，但纯苯7下纸货与08盘面苯乙烯加 工差扩大至1400元/吨。苯乙烯方面华东市场苯乙烯市场整体走稳，随着月底纸货交割临近，基差价格 较为强势，市场换货交易为主，整体高价交投有限，下游高价提货观望。中期看关税及国补或难对终端 需求有进一步驱动，苯乙烯高利润 ...

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年7月3日 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料,但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证,本报告反映研究 人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不拘成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所 有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制,如引用、刊发,需注明出处为'广发期货'。 专心,专业,专为您 关注微信公众号 聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 7月3日 | 7月2日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 69.11 | 67.11 | 2.00 | 2.98% | ...

Group 1 - The rumor regarding Tangshan's sintering machine production cut of 30% from July 4 to 15 has been confirmed by approximately half of the steel mills, with a likelihood of confirmation from the remaining mills. Current production is 270,000 tons per day with a capacity utilization rate of 83%, which may drop to 70% under the new policy, resulting in a reduction of 30,000 tons per day [1] - In the Ordos region, most coal mines are maintaining stable production, with some previously reduced or shut down mines gradually resuming operations, leading to a recovery in overall coal supply [1] - India's palm oil imports surged by 61% month-on-month in June, reaching 953,000 tons, the highest level in 11 months, while total edible oil imports increased by 30% to 1,530,000 tons, marking a seven-month high [1] Group 2 - As of July 2, 2025, China's methanol port inventory totaled 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, with East China seeing an increase of 13,500 tons and South China experiencing a decrease of 10,300 tons [2] - The Indonesian government plans to shorten the mining quota (RKAB) duration from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and mineral supplies [2] - Monitoring by the National Grain and Oil Information Center indicates that soybean procurement for August shipping is nearly complete, with September shipping at nearly 50% and no purchases for October to December shipping, highlighting the need to monitor future purchases and import arrivals of soybeans [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - In late June, international oil prices significantly declined, leading to a drop in both domestic and international palm oil futures prices. If global geopolitical risks continue to decrease, palm oil prices will revert to being driven by fundamentals [1] - Currently, during the production season, Malaysian palm oil production is rapidly increasing. According to MPOB data, May palm oil production rose by 3.94% year-on-year and 5.05% month-on-month, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Despite the high production in May, it is expected that the growth rate of Malaysian palm oil production will slow down in June, with SPPOMA data indicating a 2.5% month-on-month increase in the first half of June, lower than the production growth in May [1] Group 2: Demand and Export - Demand for Malaysian palm oil began to recover in March, with rapid growth in April and May. From January to April, India's palm oil imports were low, leading to strong replenishment demand [2] - In May, India's palm oil imports increased by 84% month-on-month, driven by a significant reduction in import tariffs from 20% to 10% on May 30, which lowered import costs and boosted palm oil imports [2] - Institutions estimate that Malaysian palm oil exports will increase by 14.3% month-on-month from June 1 to June 20, indicating a scenario of simultaneous supply and demand growth in the palm oil market [2] Group 3: Inventory and Policy - In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 6.65% month-on-month to 1.99 million tons, which, while high for recent years, was below market expectations. Strong exports are expected to slow down the accumulation of inventory [2] - On June 6, Indonesia announced that the Indonesia-EU Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IEU-CEPA) is nearing completion, which will eliminate import tariffs on various Indonesian products, potentially boosting palm oil exports [2] - The U.S. Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill on July 1, which includes the 45Z provision aimed at increasing biodiesel production, thereby raising demand for oilseed raw materials and benefiting palm oil [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - Overall, the current palm oil market is characterized by simultaneous increases in supply and demand. Although increased production has led to inventory pressure, stronger-than-expected exports provide support for futures prices [3] - If exports maintain previous growth rates from June to August, it may lead to a counter-cyclical reduction in inventory. Additionally, positive signals from policy developments suggest a non-pessimistic outlook for the mid-term palm oil market [3]

周四（7月3日）重点关注财经事件和经济数据 ① 09:45 中国6月财新服务业PMI ② 14:30 瑞士6月CPI月率 ③ 15:00 商务部召开例行发布会 ④ 15:50 法国6月服务业PMI终值 ⑤ 15:55 德国6月服务业PMI终值 ⑥ 16:00 欧元区6月服务业PMI终值 ⑦ 16:30 英国6月服务业PMI终值 ⑧ 19:30 欧洲央行公布6月货币政策会议纪要 ⑨ 20:30 美国6月失业率，美国6月季调后非农就业人口，美国至6月28日当周初请失业金人数，美国5月 贸易帐 ⑩ 21:45 美国6月标普全球服务业PMI终值 ⑪ 22:00 美国6月ISM非制造业PMI，美国5月工厂订单月率 ⑫ 22:30 美国至6月27日当周EIA天然气库存 ⑬ 23:00 美联储博斯蒂克就货币政策发表讲话 ⑭ 次日01:00 美国至7月4日当周石油钻井总数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are experiencing inventory accumulation and cautious sentiment from downstream enterprises, leading to a bearish outlook in the short term [1] Natural Rubber Market Analysis - Qingdao port's total inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate, with a slight decrease in bonded warehouse inventory and a significant increase in general trade [1] - The overall inventory is increasing, and there is significant pressure to deplete it, with seasonal supply expectations adding to the fundamental pressure [1] - Overseas weather improvements are aiding rubber tapping operations, while domestic rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan is causing slow increases in raw material supply, keeping procurement prices firm [1] - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with downstream enterprises primarily focused on inventory digestion, leading to a wait-and-see approach in the latter half of the week [1] Synthetic Rubber Market Analysis - The macro environment is slightly positive, boosting market sentiment, but the market is expected to return to supply-demand fundamentals after the news impact diminishes [1] - In the butadiene market, synthetic rubber strength is uplifting market sentiment, but external export prices are low, leading to cautious buying from downstream [1] - The supply side of synthetic rubber shows a slight increase in polybutadiene rubber production, while demand from tire manufacturers remains stable [1] - There are no significant positive indicators in the fundamentals, leading to insufficient rebound in futures prices, with expectations of continued range-bound trading [1] Trading Strategies - For natural rubber, the accumulation at Qingdao port is putting upward pressure on futures prices, with expectations of short-term fluctuations [1] - Suggested strategies include cautious short positions at highs, with support levels for RU at 13400 - 13500 and resistance levels at 14100 - 14200; for NR, support at 11700 - 11800 and resistance at 12300 - 12400 [1] - For synthetic rubber, the macro environment is supportive, but the lack of positive fundamentals suggests a continuation of range-bound trading, with BR support levels at 10700 - 10800 and resistance at 11600 - 11700 [1]

再 call 铜：库存供应双底的历史时刻 20250702 摘要 铜价上涨行情或已接近尾声，预计价格高点在 10,500 至 11,000 美元 之间。上游补库存、冶炼减产及潜在的 LME 和沪铜逼仓现象，将显著提 升 7 月和 8 月铜价的上涨弹性。 若发生逼仓，铜价有望突破 2024 年 5 月的 11,000 美元高点，当前的 市场条件，包括更低的供应增速、更差的库存水平和较低的非商业多单 持仓，均优于 5 月。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月铜价上涨。尽管美国库存已处高位，但 价差依然驱动补库存，预计 7 月和 8 月铜价表现将优于去年 5 月。232 关税延期至 9 月或 10 月，也为补库存提供了机会。 第二轮补库预计将从中国和欧洲开始，因美国补库后，中欧库存消耗殆 尽。欧洲 LME 库存极低，中国甚至可能出现逼仓。下一轮铜价上行取决 于中欧补库时机，或由需求预期转好或财政刺激驱动。 预计下一波行情将在 2026 年或 232 关税落地后开始，商品价格可能回 到 11,000 至 12,000 美元区间。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月（7 月和 8 月）铜价上涨。尽管美国库存目前 已达到较高位置，但 ...

Core Insights - The EIA reported a decrease in refined oil inventories by 1.71 million barrels for the week ending June 27, which was significantly higher than the expected decrease of 681,000 barrels and the previous week's decline of 4.066 million barrels [1] Summary by Category - **Inventory Changes** - Refined oil inventories fell by 1.71 million barrels [1] - Expected change was a decrease of 681,000 barrels [1] - Previous week's inventory change was a decline of 4.066 million barrels [1]

Core Insights - The EIA reported a significant increase in U.S. gasoline inventories for the week ending June 27, with a change of 4.188 million barrels, which is substantially higher than the expected increase of 0.9 million barrels and contrasts with the previous decrease of 2.075 million barrels [1] Industry Summary - The current gasoline inventory levels indicate a shift in supply dynamics, suggesting potential implications for pricing and market strategies within the energy sector [1]

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存增加385万桶，彭博用户预计减少400万桶、分析师预 期减少269.200万桶，之前一周下降583.6万桶。 ...