1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][5][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices closed down. The macro - non - farm data was below expectations, pressuring the market. European ARA hub inventory data showed mixed trends. The market is fragile and sensitive to negatives, and oil prices are expected to continue oscillating [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. Singapore's October sales data showed growth and decline in different types. In November, sufficient inventory will suppress the low - sulfur market, while the high - sulfur market has relatively healthy downstream demand, and prices are expected to be weak [3] - **Asphalt**: The futures price rose on Thursday. Supply may decline slightly in the short - term due to profit reduction, and downstream demand is limited due to weather, so the price is treated with a bearish view [3] - **Polyester**: Futures prices of related products fell. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations. With the improvement of the PTA fundamentals, its price is expected to oscillate strongly, while the ethylene glycol has short - term supply improvement but medium - term inventory pressure, and its price will adjust widely [5] - **Rubber**: Futures prices fell on Thursday. The supply pressure increases while the downstream demand is weak externally, but winter storage demand supports the price, so the price is expected to oscillate [6] - **Methanol**: Supply has returned to a high level recently, but Iranian devices may stop in the future, and port inventory is expected to decline from December to January, so the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Polyolefins**: The market is gradually shifting to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the low valuation may prompt downstream actions, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in different regions decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to the slowdown of real - estate construction, so the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 12 - month contract closed down $0.3 to $59.14/barrel, Brent 1 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $63.38/barrel, and SC2512 closed at 456.7 yuan/barrel, down 1.7 yuan/barrel. The non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. European ARA hub diesel inventory decreased by nearly 5%, gasoline inventory slightly decreased, naphtha inventory increased by nearly 10%, aviation fuel inventory slightly decreased, and fuel oil inventory increased [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract of fuel oil (FU2601) fell 1.76% to 2517 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2601) fell 3.5% to 3139 yuan/ton. In October 2025, Singapore's total marine fuel sales were 4.8177 million tons, with a 1.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.23% year - on - year decrease. In November, low - sulfur supply is abundant, and high - sulfur has relatively healthy demand [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract (BU2601) rose 0.33% to 3058 yuan/ton. This week, domestic asphalt shipments decreased by 18.7% month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.34% at 4696 yuan/ton, EG2601 closed down 2.08% at 3822 yuan/ton, and PX601 closed down 0.58% at 6830 yuan/ton. Some devices had maintenance and restart operations, and the PTA load was adjusted to 72.1% [5] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) fell 190 yuan/ton to 15250 yuan/ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 160 yuan/ton to 12320 yuan/ton. Rubber production is seasonally increasing, and imports are increasing year - on - year [6] - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the spot price in Taicang was 2000 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are resuming production, and Iranian devices may stop in the future [6] - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the price of East China PP and PE had different trends, and the profit of various production methods was negative. The market is gradually shifting to strong supply and weak demand [6][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: Market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. Supply remains high, and demand will decline due to real - estate construction slowdown [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy - chemical products on November 20 and 19, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - The latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non - farm employment increased by 119,000 in August, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The ARA hub's inventory data for diesel, gasoline, naphtha, aviation fuel, and fuel oil in the week ending November 20 was released [12][13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [15][16][17] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts of different products over time, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [32][37][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][50][53] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different varieties, including crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] - **4.5 Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [68]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the short - term domestic production of butadiene rubber is expected to increase, and the inventories of production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of butadiene rubber has slightly stronger support. The supply prices of Sinopec and PetroChina resources have increased, but the spot resources remain tight. High - premium offers struggle to attract buyers, and private price - holding efforts also face difficulties in getting terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened [2]. - Tire enterprises' orders are insufficient. Some enterprises have arranged overhauls and some have reduced production, dragging down the tire capacity utilization rate. As the production schedule of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the tire enterprises' capacity utilization rate may show a restorative increase next week, but the overall demand improvement space is limited, and enterprises' production control will continue to restrict the increase in capacity utilization rate. The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,450 - 10,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan from the previous day; the position volume of the main contract is 72,012, an increase of 634 [2]. - The 12 - 1 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,980 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 (Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 10,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of BR9000 (Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 10,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 130 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 63.51 dollars/barrel, down 1.38 dollars; WTI crude oil is at 59.44 dollars/barrel, down 1.3 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 730 dollars/ton, unchanged; Naphtha CFR Japan is 573 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 7,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.56 million tons/week, up 0.03 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 73.02%, up 2.7 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 29,000 tons, down 800 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.04 million tons, down 0.53 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.92%, up 4.07 percentage points; the weekly production profit is 636 yuan/ton, up 97 yuan; the social inventory is 3.08 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25,850 tons, an increase of 80 tons; the trader's inventory is 4,970 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.68%, up 0.01 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.5%, down 0.96 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.55 days, an increase of 0.35 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.36%, a decrease of 3.63 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.40 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 62.04%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.56 percentage points year - on - year. Enterprises' orders are insufficient, some sample enterprises have arranged overhauls, and some have reduced production, dragging down the sample enterprises' capacity utilization rate [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber output was 13.76 million tons, an increase of 0.72 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.52% and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate in October was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year. Previously, most overhauled butadiene rubber devices have gradually restarted, and domestic production has recovered. Recently, the raw material buyers have actively followed up, the cost support for butadiene rubber has slightly strengthened, private price - holding efforts struggle to get terminal follow - up and some transactions have weakened, and this week the production enterprises' inventory has increased while the trading enterprises' inventory has changed slightly [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.24%. This period, raw material buyers have actively followed up, and after the restart of previously overhauled devices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Market sentiment is cautious, with copper prices oscillating. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the copper price bottom. The main contract is expected to range between 85,500 - 87,500 yuan/ton. Follow demand changes and overseas interest - rate cut expectations [1]. Zinc - The fundamentals offer limited support for continuous upward movement of SHFE zinc, which is likely to oscillate in the short term. The main contract is expected to range between 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton. Look out for demand improvement and non - recessionary interest - rate cut expectations [3]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains in a supply - demand surplus, with prices likely to remain weak. The main contract is expected to range between 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum is caught between macro - level positives and weak fundamentals, with the medium - term supply expected to be tight [4]. Tin - Tin ore supply is tight, and demand shows regional differences. With positive semiconductor sentiment, long positions can be held. Monitor macro changes and Myanmar's supply recovery [6]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term ADC12 price will stay firm, supported by costs. The main contract is expected to range between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Track scrap aluminum supply, downstream procurement, and inventory changes [9]. Nickel - The nickel market faces macro pressure, and the fundamental improvement is limited. The medium - term supply is abundant. The main contract is expected to range between 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro expectations and Indonesian policies [11]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market has insufficient macro - level drivers and weak demand. The supply pressure remains. The main contract is expected to range between 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Monitor steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market shows strong short - term momentum. The market may continue to be strong, followed by wide - range oscillations. Be cautious when chasing long positions at current levels [15]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range. Futures may decline. Monitor inventory pressure, spot support, and demand orders [16]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, mainly between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Consider short - selling or hedging at high prices [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 86,715 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The refined - scrap spread increased by 8.98% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [3]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.42%. Alumina prices in different regions were mostly stable [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 291,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. In October, SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 53.09% [6]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 21,450 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap spread in different regions decreased [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The regenerated aluminum alloy开工率 decreased [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 117,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.56%. The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price decreased to 897 yuan/nickel point [11]. - **Fundamentals**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Imports in September were 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained at 12,700 yuan/ton. The raw material prices such as nickel ore and chromium iron decreased [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Indonesia's production was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price rose to 88,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.72%. The lithium ore price also increased [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [15]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: Polysilicon spot prices were stable, while futures prices rose to 54,625 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts increased [16]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production was 26,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74%. Monthly production was 134,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.08% [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: Industrial silicon spot prices were unchanged, while futures prices rose to 9,390 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, national industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.46%. The national开工率 was 68.12%, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, although there are geopolitical head - winds, the copper price has strong support due to tight raw material supply and improved spot market after price correction. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 1,0700 - 10,920 US dollars/ton [3][4]. - For aluminum, with relatively fluctuating domestic inventories and low overseas inventories, the aluminum price has strong support. If domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after consolidation. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,840 US dollars/ton [5][6]. - For lead, due to tight domestic lead raw materials, high primary and increasing secondary smelting production, and marginal improvement in downstream demand, the domestic lead ingot social inventory is marginally increasing. The lead price is expected to be weak in the short - term [7][8]. - For zinc, with tight zinc ore during refineries' winter stockpiling, reduced zinc smelting profits, and slowdown in domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation, along with the impact of Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. - For tin, the short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the domestic main contract operating range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 36,000 - 38,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - For nickel, due to increasing refined nickel inventory, falling ferronickel price, and expected increase in refined nickel supply, the short - term nickel price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider building long positions if the ferronickel price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough [13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the whole contract increased positions by 70,000 lots on Wednesday, with bulls leading the market. The demand is strong, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. It is necessary to pay attention to price fluctuations, and focus on factors such as position structure, equity market atmosphere, and lithium - battery material and cell production scheduling [17][18]. - For alumina, with the recovery of overseas ore shipments after the rainy season and over - capacity in the smelting end, the inventory is increasing. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see [20][21]. - For stainless steel, with the oversupply situation unchanged, weak market confidence, and sufficient imported raw materials, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to decline [23][24]. - For cast aluminum alloy, with cost support and average demand, the short - term price is expected to follow the aluminum price [26]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight US stocks stabilized, copper prices rebounded. LME copper 3M contract rose 0.98% to 10,802 US dollars/ton, SHFE copper main contract reached 86,190 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 17,375 to 157,875 tons, mainly from Asian warehouses. Domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 to 58,000 tons, and the spot premium in Shanghai increased. The domestic copper spot import loss shrank to about 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The US government reopened, but there are geopolitical head - winds. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the spot market has improved after the price correction. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 85,600 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 1,0700 - 10,920 US dollars/ton [3][4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.9% to 2,814 US dollars/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract reached 21,530 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 1.2 to 668,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories decreased, and the aluminum rod processing fee declined. The spot in the East China electrolytic aluminum market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading improved. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 546,000 tons [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventories are relatively fluctuating, and overseas inventories are low. If domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after consolidation. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,450 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,840 US dollars/ton [5][6]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.12% to 17,248 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to 2,026 US dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 31,200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 40,400 tons [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead ore and waste battery inventories increased slightly, but the lead raw materials are still tight. The primary and secondary smelting profits are good, and the downstream demand has improved marginally. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is marginally increasing. The lead price is expected to be weak in the short - term [7][8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.49% to 22,437 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose 13 to 2,986.5 US dollars/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,420 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 75,300 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 156,600 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but it is still tight during refineries' winter stockpiling. Zinc smelting profits are damaged, and the zinc ingot supply is marginally decreasing. The downstream operating rate is stable, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory accumulation has slowed down. The LME zinc spread is marginally decreasing. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [9][10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On November 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 293,370 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was reported at 279,500 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan/ton. The tin smelting plants' operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have recovered but are still at a low level due to tight tin ore supply. Although the mining license in Myanmar's Wa State has been approved, the tin ore export is still far below the normal level [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to go long on dips, with the domestic main contract operating range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of 36,000 - 38,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 115,650 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The spot premiums of various brands were stable. The ferronickel price has been falling rapidly since November [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Due to increasing refined nickel inventory, falling ferronickel price, and expected increase in refined nickel supply, the short - term nickel price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider building long positions if the ferronickel price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough. The short - term operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [13][14][15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 97,343 yuan, up 3.73%. The LC2601 contract closed at 99,300 yuan, up 6.18% [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The whole contract increased positions by 70,000 lots on Wednesday, with bulls leading the market. The demand is strong, but price increases may trigger potential disturbances. It is necessary to pay attention to price fluctuations, and focus on factors such as position structure, equity market atmosphere, and lithium - battery material and cell production scheduling [17][18]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On November 19, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.39% to 2,764 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price was 2,780 yuan/ton, with a premium of 67 yuan/ton over the 12 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell 1 US dollar/ton to 319 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was 33 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts were 255,800 tons, an increase of 300 tons [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and the alumina smelting end has over - capacity. However, as the price is close to the cost line, the short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The domestic main contract AO2601 operating range is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [20][21]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,335 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets had different changes. The raw material prices such as ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased. The futures inventory decreased by 1,726 to 70,365 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1,070,600 tons [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged, market confidence is weak, and the cost support is insufficient. The stainless - steel price is expected to continue to decline [23][24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price stabilized. The main AD2601 contract rose 0.36% to 20,820 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 24,600 lots, and the trading volume was 5,100 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory decreased by 0.02 to 51,500 tons [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With cost support and average demand, the short - term price is expected to follow the aluminum price [26].

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur crack in Singapore oscillated, the monthly spread strengthened slightly, and the basis weakened. The HSFO crack in Europe declined, and the EW strengthened this week. The 0.5% crack in Singapore rebounded, the monthly spread oscillated, and the basis oscillated at a low level. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil decreased slightly, ARA's residual oil increased, Fujairah's residual oil increased, and EIA's residual oil inventory remained flat. The spread between high - and low - sulfur in the outer market rebounded. Singapore's high - sulfur is supported by EW and refinery purchases, but the spot basis is weakening rapidly. It is in a short - term oscillatory pattern, and the short - term downward space for low - sulfur is limited. [6][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased from 367.09 to 353.50, a change of - 6.29; the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased from 406.14 to 403.35, a change of - 7.88; the Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased from - 4.95 to - 7.45, a change of - 0.48; the Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased from 687.85 to 734.17, a change of 1.75; the Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 281.71 to - 330.82, a change of - 9.63; the LGO - Brent M1 increased from 30.65 to 34.17, a change of 0.50; the Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased from 39.05 to 49.85, a change of - 1.59. [4] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 359.55 to 348.42, a change of - 6.90; the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased from 366.12 to 354.42, a change of - 6.15; the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased from 439.87 to 448.06, a change of - 0.93; the price of Singapore Gasoil M1 increased from 90.65 to 96.80, a change of 3.51; the Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased from - 5.70 to - 8.25, a change of - 0.80; the Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased from - 230.94 to - 268.26, a change of - 26.90. [4] - **Spot Data**: From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price in Singapore decreased from 351.45 to 348.03, a change of - 0.09; the FOB VLSFO price decreased from 438.13 to 446.12, a change of - 2.87; the 380 basis increased from - 6.03 to - 5.80, a change of 0.75; the high - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 3.7 to 3.2, a change of - 2.7; the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased from 7.5 to 7.2, a change of - 1.2. [5] Domestic FU Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of FU 01 increased from 2595 to 2560, a change of 2; the price of FU 05 increased from 2618 to 2609, a change of 3; the price of FU 09 decreased from 2586 to 2578, a change of - 1; the FU 01 - 05 decreased from - 23 to - 49, a change of - 1; the FU 05 - 09 increased from 32 to 31, a change of 4; the FU 09 - 01 decreased from - 9 to 18, a change of - 3. [5] Domestic LU Data - From November 13th to November 19th, 2025, the price of LU 01 increased from 3164 to 3266, a change of 19; the price of LU 05 increased from 3154 to 3240, a change of 17; the price of LU 09 increased from 3170 to 3246, a change of 14; the LU 01 - 05 increased from 10 to 26, a change of 2; the LU 05 - 09 increased from - 16 to - 6, a change of 3; the LU 09 - 01 decreased from 6 to - 20, a change of - 5. [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in pure benzene inventory and decrease in styrene inventory are favorable for the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [2] - For pure benzene, the lowest point of US refinery operations has passed, and the low gasoline inventory in the US and strong gasoline crack spreads support Asian aromatics. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has recovered, but the window remains closed. In the short term, there is a concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China, leading to a faster increase in port inventory. Domestic production operations continue to rise, while downstream operations are weak [2] - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boosts and low domestic operations, but there are expectations of resumption in late November. Downstream demand is still present, but downstream operations are still low [2] Summaries by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene include the main basis of pure benzene and its main futures contract price, the main contract basis of pure benzene, the spot - M2 paper cargo spread of pure benzene, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of pure benzene [7][10] - Figures related to EB include the trend and basis of the EB main contract, the EB main contract basis, and the spread between the first - and third - consecutive contracts of styrene [13][16] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to production costs and spreads include naphtha processing fees, the difference between FOB South Korea pure benzene and CFR Japan naphtha, the production profit of non - integrated styrene plants, the spread between FOB US Gulf pure benzene and FOB South Korea pure benzene, and the spreads between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam pure benzene and CFR China pure benzene [18][21][24] - Figures related to import profits include the import profit of pure benzene and styrene, and the spreads between FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam styrene and CFR China styrene [30][36] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures related to pure benzene include the East China port inventory of pure benzene and its operating rate [38] - Figures related to styrene include the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory of styrene, and its operating rate [40][43] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][54] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 conventional spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [59][62][71] Strategies - Unilateral: None [3] - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive spreads for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [3] - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Agricultural Products Morning Report on November 19, 2025, from Wukuang Futures [1] Group 2: Soybean and Bean Meal Market Information - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell. The price of US soybeans reached 1070 cents per bushel, hitting the cost line and triggering a correction. Brazilian soybean premiums fell by 3 - 6 cents per bushel. The cost of imported soybeans fluctuated. The domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly by 20 yuan per ton, with the price in East China reported at 2990 yuan per ton. The trading and pick - up of soybean meal were both good. MYSTEEL estimated that the soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills this week would be 2.3492 million tons, compared with 2.0776 million tons last week. Soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased week - on - week last week but remained high year - on - year [2] - In the next two weeks, the areas in the Brazilian soybean - producing regions with less rainfall in the early stage are expected to receive rainfall, and the sowing is expected to proceed smoothly. As of last Thursday, the planting progress had reached 71%. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons, tightening the global soybean balance sheet marginally. The US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but the US soybean exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory. The US soybean futures price thus corrected at high levels [3] Strategy View - The bottom of the import cost of soybeans may have emerged, but the upward space may require greater production cuts. The current domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, and the crushing margin is under pressure. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range [5] Group 3: Oils Market Information - According to ITS and AMSPEC data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared with the same period last month, and the exports in the first 15 days decreased by 10%. SPPOMA data showed that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 5 days of November increased by 6.8% month - on - month, decreased by 2.16% in the first 10 days compared with the same period last month, and was expected to increase by 4.09% in the first 15 days. The US Department of Agriculture reported that exporters sold 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Domestic oils fluctuated on Tuesday and rose at night. The expectation of seasonal de - stocking supported the market, and the EPA's proposal for higher biodiesel usage in 2026 than expected also had an impact. The domestic spot basis was stable [7] Strategy View - The higher - than - expected palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has suppressed the palm oil market, but the recent improvement in Malaysian palm oil exports has provided some support. The sustainability of this support needs to be observed. Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. If Indonesia's high production does not continue, the de - stocking time may come earlier. It is recommended to view palm oil as range - bound, and turn to a bullish view if there are signals of production decline [8][10] Group 4: Sugar Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fall. The closing price of the January contract was 5407 yuan per ton, a decrease of 51 yuan per ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, Guangxi sugar - making groups had no quotes for old sugar; Yunnan sugar - making groups' new sugar was quoted at 5630 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5750 - 5870 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0 - 20 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The International Sugar Organization predicted that there would be a 1.63 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, compared with a 2.92 - million - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. It is expected that the global sugar production will increase by 3.15% to 181.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 213,200 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 3.9054 million tons of sugar, an increase of 473,700 tons or 13.8% year - on - year. As of now, 325 sugar mills in India have started production, an increase of 181 compared with the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume reached 12.8 million tons, an increase of 3.7 million tons compared with the same period last year; the sugar production reached 1.05 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons; the average sugar yield was 8.2%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year [11][12] Strategy View - Recently, the strengthening of import controls on syrup and premixed powder has driven up the Zhengzhou sugar futures price, but the external market is still weak. Since August this year, due to the significant increase in the proportion of sugarcane - made sugar, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil has exceeded that of last year, leading to a continuous decline in the raw sugar price. With the expected increase in production in the northern hemisphere's major producing countries in the 2025/26 season, the upward space for raw sugar is limited, and the import profit has reached a five - year high. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short at high prices [13] Group 5: Cotton Market Information - On Tuesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated and fell. The closing price of the January contract was 13,395 yuan per ton, a decrease of 50 yuan per ton or 0.37% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was reported at 14,789 yuan per ton, a decrease of 12 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The basis between the CCIndex 3128B and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 1394 yuan per ton. In October 2025, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October 2025, China imported 780,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of 1.61 million tons or 67.36% year - on - year. According to the USDA's latest monthly supply - demand report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season was revised up by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared with the September estimate. The US cotton production was revised up by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons; the Brazilian production was revised up by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons; the Indian production remained at 5.23 million tons; the Chinese production was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons. As of the week of November 14, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from last week, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points from the same period last year, and a decrease of 7.4 percentage points from the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons year - on - year [15][16] Strategy View - Fundamentally, the downstream demand is weak, and the operating rate of the downstream industry chain has declined significantly compared with the same period in previous years. There is also significant selling - hedging pressure due to this year's domestic bumper harvest. However, the previous decline in the futures price has digested some negative factors. The market currently lacks strong driving forces, and the cotton price is expected to continue to trade in a range in the short term [17] Group 6: Eggs Market Information - The national egg price was stable to lower yesterday. The average price in the main producing areas decreased by 0.08 yuan to 2.84 yuan per catty. The price in Heishan decreased by 0.1 yuan to 2.7 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan per catty. The supply remained stable, the downstream demand was generally weak, and there was a small amount of inventory pressure. Traders were conservative, and the short - term bearish sentiment was mild. The egg price is expected to be stable to lower today [20] Strategy View - The futures price rebounded earlier than the spot price due to market expectations of a turnaround in the egg - laying hen inventory and increased demand after the temperature drop. The far - month contracts were relatively strong, but the spot price did not rise as expected, leading to an increase in the premium. The futures price fluctuated due to market sentiment. In the short term, the focus is on the strength of demand. The futures price is expected to trade in a range before the spot price realizes the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts are about the premium/discount game, and the far - month contracts reflect the expectation of production capacity reduction. In the medium term, as demand weakens and the focus returns to supply, pay attention to the upper resistance and look for opportunities to short on rebounds [21] Group 7: Pigs Market Information - The domestic pig price was mainly stable with some minor increases yesterday. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 11.62 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Sichuan increased by 0.02 yuan to 11.27 yuan per kilogram. Farmers were reluctant to sell, and the supply of large - sized pigs was normal. The downstream had difficulty in purchasing at low prices. The pig price is expected to be stable to higher today [23] Strategy View - The current rebound in the pig price is mainly driven by frozen pork storage and second - fattening. The subsequent supply will, together with the basic supply and future pre - supply, create a bearish pattern of high slaughter volume and large pig weight before the Spring Festival. In the context of oversupply, the general direction of the futures price is to short on rebounds. However, the current pattern of low prices and high open interest has formed, and there is a possibility of a rebound in the short term. Considering the large near - term supply and the expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, the first - recommended strategy is the reverse spread, followed by shorting on rebounds [24]