1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of L2605 is expected to be volatile, with the daily range estimated to be around 6360 - 6580 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 6449 yuan/ton; the 1 - month contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 6240 yuan/ton, the 5 - month contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 6449 yuan/ton, and the 9 - month contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 6496 yuan/ton [2] - The trading volume of futures increased by 72,633 hands to 397,441 hands, and the open interest increased by 7,498 hands to 508,923 hands [2] - The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 7 to - 209 [2] - Among the top 20 futures positions, the buy volume increased by 19,428 hands to 424,068 hands, the sell volume increased by 8,277 hands to 486,835 hands, and the net buy volume increased by 11,151 hands to - 62,767 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China increased by 53.91 yuan/ton to 6476.52 yuan/ton, and in East China increased by 30.93 yuan/ton to 6534.88 yuan/ton [2] - The basis was 27.52 yuan/ton, and the change value was NAN [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore decreased by 0.6 dollars/barrel to 56.36 dollars/barrel; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan decreased by 6.25 dollars/ton to 530.13 dollars/ton [2] - The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained at 726 dollars/ton, and in Northeast Asia remained at 746 dollars/ton [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical plant operating rate increased by 0.59 percentage points to 83.23% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene (PE) packaging film increased by 0.19 percentage points to 48.41%, the operating rate of PE pipes decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 30.17%, and the operating rate of PE agricultural film decreased by 4.91 percentage points to 38.95% [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 16.03%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 12.77% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and at - the - money call options for polyethylene both decreased by 0.73 percentage points, to 14.15% and 14.14% respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE plant operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%, with the agricultural film operating rate decreasing by 4.91% to 38.95% and the packaging film operating rate increasing by 0.19% to 48.41% [2] - As of January 2, the PE plant inventory was 37.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19.17%, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [2] - From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based production cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based production cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton; the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation", with synthetic rubber being "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the international sugar market faces supply pressure due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield in the new Brazilian season. Although Thailand's new - season sugar production is lower than expected, the overall fundamentals of the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will run weakly after the opening [1] - For jujubes, the sample inventory of jujubes has entered the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negatives are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support at the previous low, but there is insufficient positive news in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [4] - For rubber, natural rubber has limited fundamental driving factors in the short term. The price may be in a consolidation state after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the impact of synthetic rubber trends. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, and the sudden situation in Venezuela may boost the BR futures price [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5,251 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.17% [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 5,293 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase year - on - year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 12 to 504. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had produced 492,000 tons of sugar. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. Before the holiday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 5,182 [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the SR605 contract [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of CJ601 contract was 8,965 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,230 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.38% [4] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15,898 tons. The wholesale price of Hebei's top - grade jujubes remained unchanged at 9.52 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1 to 8. The number of jujube warrants increased by 778 to 2,120 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] Rubber - Related - **Market Review**: As of December 31, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%, the closing price of NR2603 contract was 12,655 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% [5] - **Important Information**: The price of raw materials in Thailand was not available during the holiday. Some enterprises had short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.87% to 524,800 tons, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 1.7% to 1.201 million tons. The price of butadiene in Shandong and East China was stable, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were also stable [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Overall, adopt a wait - and - see approach or hold a small number of long - call options for BR [5]

Group 1: Report Core View - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [5]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil significantly increased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage significantly decreased in inventory, ARA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory, Fujairah's residual oil decreased in inventory, the high-sulfur floating storage decreased in inventory, and EIA's residual oil slightly increased in inventory. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, which has a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [6]. Group 2: Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.66, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 0.83, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by 0.38, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by -6.29, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by 7.12, LGO - Brent M1 changed by -0.16, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by -0.83 [3]. Group 3: Singapore Fuel Oil Data Swap Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 changed by 0.51, Singapore 180cst M1 changed by -1.75, Singapore VLSFO M1 changed by -4.87, Singapore Gasoil M1 changed by 0.26, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 changed by 0.30, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 changed by -6.80 [3]. Spot Data - From December 26 to December 31, 2025, the price of Singapore FOB 380cst changed by -0.04, FOB VLSFO changed by -2.74, 380 basis changed by -0.55, high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by -1.6, and low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference changed by 0.0 [4]. Group 4: Domestic FU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of FU 01 changed by -75, FU 05 changed by -20, FU 09 changed by -18, FU 01 - 05 changed by -55, FU 05 - 09 changed by -2, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 57 [4]. Group 5: Domestic LU Data - From December 25 to December 31, 2025, the price of LU 01 changed by -245, LU 05 changed by -40, LU 09 changed by -32, LU 01 - 05 changed by -205, LU 05 - 09 changed by -8, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 213 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Methanol: Current valuation is low, and the pattern will improve marginally next year. Although short - term downside risks remain, due to geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of going long on dips [3]. - Urea: The current domestic - foreign price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, bearish fundamentals are coming, so take profits on rallies [6]. - Rubber: The current situation calls for a neutral approach and temporary observation. Partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [14]. - PVC: Fundamentally, the comprehensive corporate profit is at a historically low level, with short - term valuation pressure being small. However, supply reduction is limited, production is at a historical high, and domestic demand is in the off - season. In the short - term, strong sentiment drives a rebound, but in the medium - term, the strategy is to go short on rallies before significant industry production cuts [16]. - Pure Benzene & Styrene: Currently, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, with a large upward repair space for valuation. Before the first quarter of next year, it is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - Polyethylene: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - induced decline to production mismatch. Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [22]. - Polypropylene: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The futures price may bottom out when the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 next year [25]. - PX: Currently, the PX load remains high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. Before the maintenance season, PX is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern. In the short - term, there is a large expected component in the market, so beware of correction risks. In the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [27]. - PTA: In the short - term, supply will maintain high - level maintenance. Demand for polyester and chemical fibers is under pressure, and due to the off - season, the load will gradually decline. After short - term inventory depletion, PTA will enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage. In the short - term, beware of corrections due to over - expectation, and in the medium - term, look for opportunities to go long on dips [30]. - Ethylene Glycol: The overall load is still relatively high. The port inventory build - up cycle will continue, and in the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of new device commissioning. Valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Detailed Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - Futures Prices: As of the last trading day of the holidays, the INE main crude oil futures closed down 6.40 yuan/barrel, a 1.46% decline, at 432.20 yuan/barrel. Related refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil closed down 37.00 yuan/ton (1.49%) at 2447.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 65.00 yuan/ton (2.17%) at 2935.00 yuan/ton [1]. - European ARA Data: Gasoline inventory increased by 1.38 million barrels to 10.52 million barrels (15.07% MoM), diesel inventory decreased by 0.12 million barrels to 14.61 million barrels (0.81% MoM), fuel oil inventory increased by 0.37 million barrels to 7.06 million barrels (5.60% MoM), naphtha inventory decreased by 0.83 million barrels to 4.63 million barrels (15.18% MoM), aviation kerosene inventory decreased by 0.36 million barrels to 7.82 million barrels (4.43% MoM), and the total refined oil inventory increased by 0.44 million barrels to 44.64 million barrels (1.00% MoM) [1]. Methanol - Spot Price Changes: Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 15 yuan/ton, Henan by 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 20 yuan/ton [2]. Urea - Spot Price Changes: Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 59 yuan/ton [5]. - Futures Price: The main contract changed by 6 yuan/ton, reported at 1749 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - Price Movement: Rubber prices were in a sideways consolidation. Bulls expect price increases due to seasonal factors and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand [10][11]. - Tire Industry: As of December 25, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, down 2.46 ppts from last week and 0.02 ppts from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, up 0.98 ppts from last week but down 5.05 ppts from the same period last year. Tire inventories were under high pressure [12]. - Inventory: As of December 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 118.2 million tons, a 2.5% increase MoM. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 77.4 million tons (3.4% increase), and that of light - colored rubber was 40.8 million tons (1% increase). The inventory in Qingdao was 50.92 (+1.5) million tons [12]. - Spot Prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14650 (0) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1855 (- 5) dollars, STR20 mixed was 1860 (0) dollars, Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 8350 (0) yuan, and North China butadiene rubber was 11000 (0) yuan [13]. PVC - Futures and Spot Prices: The PVC05 contract fell 5 yuan to 4805 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4500 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 305 (+5) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 134 (- 1) yuan/ton [15]. - Cost and Supply: The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2325 (0) yuan/ton, the price of semi - coke was 820 (0) yuan/ton, ethylene was 745 (0) dollars/ton, and caustic soda was 703 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase MoM; the calcium carbide method was 78.4% (0.1% decrease), and the ethylene method was 79.3% (5% increase) [15]. - Demand and Inventory: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease MoM. Factory inventory was 30.9 million tons (+0.3), and social inventory was 106.3 million tons (+0.3) [15]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - Price and Basis: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5340 yuan/ton (unchanged), the closing price of the active contract was 5463 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the basis was - 123 yuan/ton (24 - yuan expansion). The spot price of styrene rose 50 yuan/ton to 6900 yuan/ton, the closing price of the active contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 6791 yuan/ton, and the basis was 109 yuan/ton (40 - yuan strengthening) [18]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.05 million tons to 13.88 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase. The operating rate of PS was 59.40% (4.90% increase), EPS was 52.56% (0.76% increase), and ABS was 69.40% (0.70% decrease) [18]. - Profit: The BZN spread was 133.37 yuan/ton (4 - yuan decrease), and the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 76.1 yuan/ton (40 - yuan increase) [18]. Polyethylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 11 yuan/ton to 6472 yuan/ton, the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton to 6375 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 yuan/ton (1 - yuan weakening) [21]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 82.27%, a 0.82% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.79 million tons to 37.07 million tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 0.49 million tons to 2.76 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 41.15%, a 0.68% decrease MoM. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton (2 - yuan narrowing) [21]. Polypropylene - Price and Basis: The closing price of the main contract rose 27 yuan/ton to 6348 yuan/ton, the spot price was unchanged at 6275 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 73 yuan/ton (27 - yuan weakening) [23]. - Supply and Demand: The upstream operating rate was 75.65%, a 1.76% decrease MoM. The production enterprise inventory decreased by 0.45 million tons to 53.33 million tons, the trader inventory decreased by 1.11 million tons to 18.72 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 0.12 million tons to 6.87 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.24%, a 0.56% decrease MoM. The LL - PP spread was 124 yuan/ton (16 - yuan narrowing) [23][24]. PX - Futures and Spot Prices: The PX03 contract fell 56 yuan to 7260 yuan, PX CFR fell 1 dollar to 893 dollars, and the basis was - 25 yuan (+42). The 3 - 5 spread was - 6 yuan (+10) [26]. - Load and Inventory: China's PX load was 88.2%, a 0.1% increase; the Asian load was 79.5%, a 0.6% increase. In December, South Korea exported 28.3 million tons of PX to China, a 0.8 - million - ton increase YoY. The inventory at the end of November was 402 million tons, a 5 - million - ton decrease MoM [26]. - Valuation and Cost: PXN was 355 dollars (- 1), South Korea's PX - MX was 143 dollars (- 7), and the naphtha crack spread was 89 dollars (+3) [26]. PTA - Futures and Spot Prices: The PTA05 contract fell 34 yuan to 5110 yuan, the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 5095 yuan, the basis was - 46 yuan (+4), and the 5 - 9 spread was 100 yuan (- 18) [29]. - Load and Inventory: The PTA load was 72.5%, a 0.7% decrease. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. On December 26, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 205.5 million tons, a 5.2 - million - ton decrease [29]. - Valuation and Cost: The spot processing fee of PTA rose 4 yuan to 349 yuan, and the futures processing fee rose 2 yuan to 347 yuan [29]. Ethylene Glycol - Futures and Spot Prices: The EG05 contract fell 44 yuan to 3803 yuan, the East China spot price fell 13 yuan to 3681 yuan, the basis was - 141 yuan (- 2), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 93 yuan (- 9) [31]. - Supply and Demand: The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a 1.4% increase. The downstream load was 90.4%, a 0.7% decrease. The import arrival forecast was 10.7 million tons, and the East China departure on December 30 was 1.1 million tons. The port inventory was 73 million tons, a 1.4 - million - ton increase [31]. - Valuation and Cost: The naphtha - based profit was - 829 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 925 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 188 yuan. The cost of ethylene was flat at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 540 yuan [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that there is a game between bullish and bearish sentiments in the silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy markets, leading to wide - range fluctuations in the futures prices. The profit has been restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. However, the supply side shows different trends, and the upper space of the futures prices is under pressure [3][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices fluctuated widely, with the price center of manganese ferroalloy slightly rising. The profit was restored due to the increase in spot prices and the oscillation in futures prices. The supply side showed new start - up and复产 phenomena, and the willingness of factories to hedge was strong, which might put pressure on the futures prices [5]. - In terms of macro - factors, China proposed to implement more proactive and effective macro - policies, and the Central Economic Work Conference released many signals for stable growth. There were no significant overseas macro - factors [5]. - Microscopically, the molten iron output increased month - on - month, and the demand for raw materials was slowly recovering. The fundamental contradictions of manganese ferroalloy continued to accumulate, and the previously shut - down silicon ferroalloy factories resumed production [5]. 2. Futures Market - The silicon ferroalloy 2603 contract fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,672 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change. The trading volume was 776,386 lots, and the open interest was 218,692 lots, a decrease of 27,548 lots month - on - month [8]. - The manganese ferroalloy 2603 contract also fluctuated widely this week, closing at 5,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton month - on - month. The trading volume was 700,274 lots, and the open interest was 267,767 lots, an increase of 4,188 lots month - on - month [8]. 3. Spot Market - The spot prices of silicon ferroalloy in major regions of the country oscillated and increased this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in the main production areas was 5,220 - 5,320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 20 - 80 yuan/ton [9]. - The aggregated quotation range of silicon - manganese alloy in major regions of the country was 5,520 - 5,870 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 10 - 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 6517 - type silicon - manganese alloy in Inner Mongolia was 5,650 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 60 yuan/ton) [9]. 4. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of manganese ferroalloy was 19.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 tons (a change rate of + 0.6%). The weekly operating rate was 36.89%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points month - on - month [12]. - Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [13]. Demand - A new round of steel procurement is about to start, and steel mills may start the inventory replenishment process [18]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons, which provided weak support for the demand of manganese ferroalloy [20]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 393,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,500 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 23,518, a month - on - month increase of 241, equivalent to an increase of 1,205 tons, and the converted inventory was 117,590 tons [27]. - In December, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.52 days (- 0.32 days), with different trends in different regions [27]. Raw Materials - The global manganese ore departure volume increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply and demand of manganese ore were in a weak balance. The departure volume from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased [31]. - The arrival and clearance of manganese ore at ports decreased, but the supply and demand might still maintain a relative balance [38]. - Overseas mining enterprises raised their quotations, and the port prices were closely related to the high clearance demand. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [44][45]. Profit - The cost center gradually moved up with the increase in ore prices, the futures prices were strong, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy increased with the futures prices [47]. 5. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data Supply - This week, the output of silicon ferroalloy was 9.89 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The weekly operating rate was 29.54%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points month - on - month. Inner Mongolia made the main contribution to the output increase [51][52]. Demand - The steel procurement volume of a large factory in Hebei increased month - on - month, and the raw material inventory replenishment process might start [56]. - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the actual molten iron output rebounded slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.85 tons [66]. - In terms of non - steel demand, the total output of magnesium metal in December was 8.59 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 17.9%. The output of stainless - steel crude steel in November was 304.86 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 tons. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in November was 3.11 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.52% [66]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 64,360 tons, a month - on - month increase of 750 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 11,491, a month - on - month decrease of 391, equivalent to a decrease of 1,955 tons, and the converted inventory was 57,455 tons [67][68]. - In December, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 15.41 days (- 0.39 days), with different trends in different regions [69]. Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy increased with the futures prices, and attention should be paid to the impact of profit restoration on the original operating rhythm of factories [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Glass: Short - term is strong, medium - term is a volatile market. Supply contraction and demand weakness will cause price fluctuations. In 2026, it may not be a continuous decline pattern [2]. -纯碱: Medium - term is volatile and weak, short - term is strong. Supply surplus and downstream demand pressure are the main drivers of price decline, but low valuation provides support [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - There are 265 float glass production lines in the country, with 212 in operation, and the daily melting volume is 151,405 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week. The industry capacity utilization rate is 82.14%. 4 production lines were shut down and cold - repaired this week [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired production lines is 18,630 tons/day; the total daily melting volume of ignited production lines is 15,010 tons/day. The potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,190 tons/day, and the potential old - line restart has a total daily melting volume of 7,930 tons. The potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting volume of 9,100 tons/day [6][7][8]. - The current in - production capacity is about 154,500 tons/day, and the peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day [14]. Demand - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The orders in the northern region continue to decline, while the central and eastern regions remain stable, and the southern region shows a moderate increase [2]. Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of key monitored provincial production enterprises is 53.78 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.55 million weight boxes from last Thursday, a decline of 2.80%. The inventory days are 28.66 days, a decrease of 0.53 days from last Thursday [2]. Price and Profit - The price in Shahe is about 1,010 - 1,040 yuan/ton; in central China's Hubei region, it is about 1,020 - 1,060 yuan/ton; in eastern China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the price of some large manufacturers is about 1,180 - 1,240 yuan/ton [21]. - The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about - 7 yuan/ton, the profit of using natural gas is about - 186 yuan/ton, and the profit of using coal is about - 21 yuan/ton [29]. Strategy - Unilateral: Volatile and weak, with upper pressure at 1,150 - 1,180 and lower support at 900 - 930. -跨期: Do not participate for the time being. -跨品种: Do not participate for the time being. If trading the inflation expectation factor in 2026, glass may be stronger, but there are many uncertainties in the market [2]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The market trading has weakened recently, and this situation is expected to continue. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 6.52%; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 17.5 - 18.5 yuan/square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2.70% [41][43]. Capacity and Inventory - There are 402 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation in the country, with a total daily melting volume of 87,940 tons/day, unchanged from last week. The inventory is expected to increase seasonally later [45]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - This week, the domestic soda ash production is 711,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,600 tons, a decline of 1.32%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 81.65%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09% [3]. - Some soda ash plants have carried out phased maintenance and production reduction [53]. Inventory - As of December 31, the total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.34 million tons (including the external warehouse inventory of some manufacturers), of which the heavy - soda inventory is 594,000 tons [3]. Price and Profit - The low - end price in the Shahe area is 1,140 yuan/ton, and a small number of prices have increased slightly. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are about 1,140 - 1,300 yuan/ton [67][68]. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 21 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 57 yuan/ton [72]. Strategy - Unilateral: There is still pressure in the medium - term, with upper pressure at 1,250 - 1,300 and lower support at 1,080 - 1,100. -跨期: Do not participate for the time being. -跨品种: Do not participate for the time being. If trading the inflation expectation factor in 2026, glass may be stronger, but there are many uncertainties in the market [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation - Inter - term: Go for positive spreads on UR05 - 09 when the price is low - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea futures and spot prices improved in sentiment due to export news. Despite market rumors being refuted, pre - New Year's Eve enterprises still had order - collection needs, leading to better procurement sentiment in the urea spot market. - Environmental warnings in Hebei and Henan may further suppress the operations of urea enterprises and downstream industries. There are expectations of reduced supply in the fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance starting in December. - Demand - side off - season storage procurement is ongoing. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market has cooled due to raw material supply - guarantee policies. The overall operating rate has slightly decreased due to environmental warnings. - The overall operating rate of melamine has decreased. Factory inventories have decreased, while port inventories have slightly increased. There is no new news on the export side. Attention should be paid to environmental restrictions, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot procurement sentiment [2] Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - On December 30, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,743 yuan/ton (+8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,690 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged). The small - block anthracite was 820 yuan/ton (unchanged). The Shandong basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8), the Henan basis was - 53 yuan/ton (-18), and the Jiangsu basis was - 33 yuan/ton (-8) [1] II. Urea Output - As of December 30, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 78.78% (0.08% change) [1] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 30, 2025, the urea production profit was 131 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] IV. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of December 30, 2025, the export profit was 822 yuan/ton (+10) [1] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 30, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.75% (-1.62%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 58.07% (-0.48%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 6.35 days (+0.11) [1] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 30, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 106.89 million tons (-11.08), and the port sample inventory was 17.70 million tons (+3.90) [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The 03 contract's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upside potential. The market is expected to trade in a range [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On December 30th, the log 2601 contract was at 756.0, down 4.5 (-0.59%) from the previous day; the log 2603 contract remained flat at 776.0; the log 2605 contract was at 787.5, up 2.5 (0.32%) [2]. - The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on December 30th compared to the previous day. The latest round of FOB quotes for radiata pine 4m medium A was 112 USD/JAS m³, and for spruce 11.8m was 126 EUR/JAS m³, both unchanged [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On December 29th, the RMB/USD exchange rate was 7.008, up 0.01 from the previous day, with a 0% change. The import theoretical cost was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 from the previous day, with a 0% change [2]. Supply: Monthly - In November, the port shipping volume was 189.2 million m³, down 12.1 million m³ (-6.01%) from October. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 49, down 5 (-9.26%) from the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the total domestic softwood log inventory was 254 million m³, down 6 million m³ (-2.31%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 185.2 million m³, up 2.15%. In Jiangsu, it was 52.1 million m³, down 9.4 million m³ (-15.30%) [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of December 26th, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 5.89 million m³, down 0.49 million m³ (-8%) from the previous week. In Shandong, it was 2.79 million m³, down 0.55 million m³ (-16%). In Jiangsu, it was 2.44 million m³, down 0.08 million m³ (-3%) [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 New Zealand softwood log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million m³, an increase of 20.45 million m³ from the previous week, a week-on-week increase of 66.8% [3].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center, dated December 30, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report Core View - This week, the 380 cracking weakened, the monthly spread fluctuated at a low level, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the European high - sulfur cracking weakened, and the high - sulfur EW continued to strengthen. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore fluctuated at a low level, the monthly spread fluctuated at a historical low, and the 5GO repaired as diesel weakened. In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual oil increased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased in stock, the residual oil in Fujairah decreased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly in stock, the European high - sulfur floating storage decreased slightly in stock, and the US high - sulfur floating storage increased slightly in stock. The low - sulfur floating storage in Singapore decreased in stock, and the European low - sulfur floating storage increased in stock. Global residual oil entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is subject to crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement at the spot end, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is no driving force [4][5] Summary by Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 changed by 1.72, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 changed by 1.40, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 changed by - 0.31, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 changed by 2.33, Rotterdam VLSFO - G M1 changed by - 0.93, LGO - Brent M1 changed by - 1.03, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 changed by - 0.32 [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the price change of Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 was 0.11, other data for December 29 were not provided [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, the FOB 380cst price changed by - 4.31, FOB VLSFO changed by - 4.51, and the 380 basis changed by 0.60 [3] Domestic FU Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, FU 01 changed by - 38, FU 05 changed by - 32, FU 09 changed by - 20, FU 01 - 05 changed by - 6, FU 05 - 09 changed by - 12, and FU 09 - 01 changed by 18 [3] Domestic LU Data - From December 23 to December 29, 2025, LU 01 changed by - 360, LU 05 changed by - 42, LU 09 changed by - 39, LU 01 - 05 changed by - 318, LU 05 - 09 changed by - 3, and LU 09 - 01 changed by 321 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - In the context of low inventory and the expectation of a decrease in later shipments, some spot prices have been adjusted upwards. The fundamentals of the 03 contract have marginally improved, but the weak demand remains unchanged, limiting the overall upward adjustment space. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 29th, the prices of log futures contracts (LG2601, LG2603, LG2605) all declined compared to December 26th. The LG2601 contract dropped by 0.72% to 760.5 yuan/cubic meter, the LG2603 contract by 0.06% to 776 yuan/cubic meter, and the LG2605 contract by 0.25% to 785 yuan/cubic meter. The 01 - 03 and 01 - 05 spreads also decreased [2]. - The spot prices of major benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 740 yuan/cubic meter, and that of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 730 yuan/cubic meter. The latest round of foreign - market quotes was 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter [3]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on December 29th was 7.008 yuan, up 0.01 yuan from December 28th. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% increase in length, was 772.52 yuan, up 0.61 yuan from the previous day [2]. Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port freight volume in November was 189.2 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6.01% compared to October. The number of departing ships was 49, a decrease of 9.26% compared to the previous period [2]. - From December 29th, 2025, to January 5th, 2026, 15 ships carrying New Zealand softwood logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships (67% week - on - week) compared to the previous week. The total arrival volume is expected to be 51.05 million cubic meters, an increase of 20.45 million cubic meters (66.8% week - on - week) [3]. Inventory - As of December 26th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 254 million cubic meters, a decrease of 6 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. Inventory in Shandong was 181.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.9 million cubic meters; inventory in Jiangsu was 52.1 million cubic meters, a decrease of 9.4 million cubic meters (15.30% week - on - week) [2][3]. Demand - As of December 26th, the average daily log out - bound volume was 5.89 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.49 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The average daily out - bound volume in Shandong decreased by 0.55 million cubic meters (16%) to 2.79 million cubic meters, and in Jiangsu it decreased by 0.08 million cubic meters (3%) to 2.44 million cubic meters [2][3].