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多头为何如此顽强,这次攻破3800,直冲4000点?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 07:48
刘教授所说的重要节点,就是A股要突破3700点,目前非常关键,只要这个10年的高点被攻破了,对市场信心的恢复会有极大的作用,怎么去攻破呢,目前 最大的外力就是美联储降息了,现在市场预期9月份降息的概率会达到93%,可见这似乎成了板上钉钉的事了。 因为美联储降息后,其他货币体资金就会回流,这个时候外资上来加一个把力,或许3700点就过去了,如果这里还像以前那样折腾,3800过不去,重蹈覆辙 不是没有可能。 多头为何如此顽强,这次攻破3800,直冲4000点? 之所以引用刘教授的观点,是因为今天的盘面多少与其有着某种内在的联系,早上开盘的半个小时,市场处于了一波小幅度的跳水,不过在10点之后就被快 速的拉起了,此前的权重股依然扮演着重要的角色,银行股拉盘这本没什么,在过去的盘面中多次出现,只是从昨天的收盘形态看,出现了相对较长的下影 线,说明市场有点抵抗性上涨的意思。 刘纪鹏教授有个观点,说是从2015年之后的十年时间,A股市场有三次到了3700多点就开始回调,而这次也马上面临3700点,希望这次大家能够坚定信心, 稳步跨过3800点,那样就可能迎来一轮真正的慢牛了。 还有一点,在说到美联储降息的问题上,刘教授的 ...
复盘农行15年流通市值登顶路:A股需要什么样的大牛股?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-08 01:56
Group 1 - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has reached a market capitalization of 2.11 trillion yuan, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to become the largest in A-shares [1] - ABC's stock price has increased by 455% since its IPO in 2010, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [1] - The characteristics of successful stocks in the banking sector include long-term growth, low volatility, and small drawdowns, often referred to as "slow bulls" [1] Group 2 - In contrast to banking stocks, some stocks can double or increase several times in a short period, with examples like Upwind New Materials seeing a 1300% increase in just 20 trading days [2] - The A-share market benefits more from "slow bulls" that provide stable growth rather than "crazy bulls" that experience extreme volatility [2] Group 3 - Stocks with stable performance and strong technical barriers, like ABC, have a solid foundation for long-term growth, as evidenced by its declining price-to-earnings ratio from 14.43 at IPO to 8.2 in 2024 [3] - The relationship between stock price and earnings growth differs between banking stocks and growth stocks, with banking stocks typically seeing earnings growth precede stock price increases [3] Group 4 - The free float market capitalization of ABC is over 190 billion yuan, allowing for a more balanced market where neither bulls nor bears can easily manipulate stock prices [4] - ABC's stock price increase is attributed to multiple factors, including sustained economic growth, low interest rates, the rapid development of passive investment, and a focus on cash dividends in the capital market [4]
每经热评丨复盘农行15年流通市值登顶路:A股需要什么样的大牛股?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-07 15:23
Group 1 - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has become the largest A-share circulating market value stock, reaching 2.14 trillion yuan as of August 7, 2023, surpassing Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) [1] - ABC's stock price has increased by 455% since its IPO in 2010, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index during the same period [1] - The characteristics of successful stocks include a "slow bull" trend, with long-term price increases and low volatility, contrasting with some stocks that experience rapid short-term gains [1][2] Group 2 - A healthy market requires "slow bull" stocks supported by stable performance and solid technical barriers, as opposed to "crazy bull" stocks that may lack sustainable growth [2] - ABC's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has decreased from 14.43 at IPO to 8.2, reflecting significant profit growth, while some growth stocks may have high P/E ratios but lack immediate earnings support [2] - The participation of more investors in stable stocks like ABC allows for better price equilibrium and reduced risk for long-term investors, as opposed to stocks that experience extreme volatility [3] Group 3 - ABC's stock price appreciation is driven by multiple factors, including sustained economic growth in China, low interest rates, the rapid development of passive investment, and a focus on cash dividends in the capital market [3] - Stocks that allow broader investor participation and shared benefits enhance the attractiveness of the capital market and create more value for investors [3]
特稿|A股火在烧!3600点山脊既越,催富行情奔涌向远方
Hua Xia Shi Bao· 2025-08-05 11:40
本报(chinatimes.net.cn)记者王兆寰 北京报道 "嗡嗡……嗡嗡……"孔芳芳的手机持续震动着,她有点看不过来短消息了。 7月23日,随着沪指突破3600点,券商营业部的客户们开始了更多咨询。"指数虽然涨到3600点了,但是 自己的持仓市值还停留在3000点,想要寻求专业的帮助。"一个客户在不停问她。 孔芳芳是国元证券北京东直门外大街营业部营销总监。按她自己的话说,近期工作"变忙了"。 7月11日,在沪指站上3500点后,她给大约800名客户发了信息,并提示客户行情在不断地向好,也给出 了原因:包括国家政策的预期在加强,提振消费、发展新质生产力的速度在加快等等。"其实就是提醒 客户,现阶段市场可以积极地看多,不适宜看空。" "信息发出之后,收到的回复并不多,可能大部分人看到也就看到了,要么不相信,要么不在意。只有 小部分仓位轻的股民会来探讨一下市场。"孔芳芳有些无奈。不过,在大盘站上3600以后,她再给这部 分人发信息时,回复的人明显多了。 流火的7月,A股经历了完美"大翻身",三大指数迭创新高,沪指连闯3500和3600整数关卡,热点板块 层出不穷,成交量不断变大。A股市场新开户数达196万户, ...
你不会真以为牛市结束了吧?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-03 01:37
Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a notable correction during the trading week from July 28 to August 1, ending a five-week upward trend, with the adjustment being one of the most significant since late June [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated between a high of 3636.17 points and a low of 3550.04 points, raising concerns among investors about the potential end of the bull market [3] Index Performance - The average stock price across the A-share market saw a slight decline of 0.04% for the week, indicating that individual stock sentiment was not overly pessimistic, with signs of recovery observed on Friday [3] - Major indices showed varied performance, with the Wande Micro-cap Index increasing by 1.10% and the CSI 2000 Index remaining nearly flat at -0.01% for the week [5] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, continued to perform strongly, while the financial sector and cyclical stocks showed signs of retreat [7] - Specific sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine and chemical pharmaceuticals reported significant gains, with increases of 5.99% and 5.78% respectively, while sectors like coal mining and precious metals faced declines [8] Institutional Insights - Analysts from Xiangcai Securities noted that the A-share indices faced downward pressure primarily due to resistance at the 3600-point level and profit-taking after recent gains [10] - Pacific Securities maintained an optimistic outlook on the market's long-term upward trend, suggesting that the current downward movement does not indicate a break in the overall bullish sentiment [11] Policy and Economic Indicators - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on supporting financing for technology-oriented small and medium enterprises [14] - Upcoming economic data releases, including July's CPI and PPI, are anticipated to provide further insights into market conditions [16] Upcoming Events - The 2025 World Robot Conference is scheduled to take place from August 8 to 12, which may attract attention in the technology sector [17] - DJI is set to launch its first robotic vacuum cleaner, expanding its product line into the home cleaning market [18]
中美经贸谈判落地,股指有望重启上行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 03:01
FICC日报 | 2025-07-30 中美经贸谈判落地,股指有望重启上行 市场分析 中美贸易谈判达成共识。国内方面,中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝 森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美经贸会谈。根据会谈共识,双方将继续推动已暂停的美方对等 关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。何立峰表示,下一步,双方应继续按照两国元首通话重要共识,充 分发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用,不断增进共识、减少误解、加强合作,进一步深化对话磋商,不断争取更多双 赢结果。海外方面,美国6月JOLTS职位空缺743.7万人,不及预期的750万人,前值从776.9万人下修至771万人。 股指上涨。现货市场,A股三大指数震荡收红,上证指数再度站上3600点,涨0.33%收于3609.71点,创业板指涨1.86%。 行业方面,板块指数涨跌互现,通信、钢铁、医药生物行业领涨,农林牧渔、银行、美容护理行业跌幅居前。当 日沪深两市成交金额回升至1.8万亿元。海外市场,投资者等待联储利率决议和美股大型企业财报,美国三大股指 全线收跌,道琼斯指数跌0.46%报44,632.99点。 IF活跃度提升。期货 ...
鑫闻界|先有8000点传闻被辟谣,后有公募内部喊出10000点,这轮行情究竟如何
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-07-29 02:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that there are mixed signals regarding the A-share market, with some institutions predicting significant growth while others express caution about potential corrections [2][3][4] - A screenshot circulating in the market claims that Shenwan Strategy is optimistic about the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 8000 points, indicating a bull market [2] - Shenwan Hongyuan's chief strategist Wang Sheng denied the authenticity of the circulating information but affirmed a positive long-term outlook for the Chinese stock market [3] Group 2 - Since April, the A-share market has been on an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points on July 24 [4] - Multiple institutions predict a "slow bull" market, with China International Capital Corporation suggesting that the index may experience narrow fluctuations before stabilizing and rising [4] - Zheshang Securities believes that the target for the Shanghai Composite Index may extend beyond the previous high of 3674 points, indicating potential for continued upward movement [4] Group 3 - Tongtai Fund's internal communication suggested a target of 10,000 points for the A-share market, with projections indicating a 35% upside based on a zero-growth model and a 194% upside based on a stable growth model [3] - The projected dividend amount for A-shares in 2024 is estimated at 2.39 trillion, which is a key factor in the valuation models presented [3] - The market is expected to exhibit characteristics of "rotating supplementary gains," with a focus on high dividend strategies and long-term opportunities in "new productive forces" [4]
央妈突击降准的牛市!7月29日,慢牛节奏将稳健向前?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 00:42
Group 1 - The central bank is set to conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating strong market support and a bullish sentiment among investors [1] - The market index has repeatedly broken through the 3600-point level, reflecting the determination of bulls to push prices higher despite attempts by bears to create downward pressure [1][3] - The trading volume remains significantly high, with around 1.8 trillion yuan traded, suggesting that funds are not retreating despite market fluctuations [3][7] Group 2 - The A-share market continues to show signs of rotation among sectors, with mixed performance among individual stocks, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears [5][7] - The overall market trend remains positive, with support expected around the 3550-point level, suggesting a potential for upward movement [5] - The market is characterized by a slow and steady upward trend, aligning with the characteristics of a "slow bull" market, as long as no major negative news emerges [7]
A股突破3600点唤醒牛市记忆,平安成金融保险股领涨先锋
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-28 11:44
Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3600-point mark for the first time since October 8 of the previous year, indicating a potential bullish market trend [1][8] - Historical data suggests that once the index stabilizes above 3600 points, targets of 3700 and even 4000 points become achievable [1][8] - The market has shown strong bullish sentiment, with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 43 consecutive days, recently hovering around 1.8 trillion yuan [1][8] Group 2 - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the current bull market, with reports indicating that the index has confirmed a comprehensive market rally [2][8] - The index has broken through previous high points, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment and the establishment of a bull market [2][8] Group 3 - The insurance sector is gaining attention due to its deep connection with the capital markets, with leading companies like Ping An showing strong performance [4][21] - As of July 28, the insurance index has seen a cumulative increase of 28% since April 8, while the Hong Kong insurance sector has risen nearly 48% in the same period [22][23] Group 4 - The current bull market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, driven by policy guidance and a reassessment of confidence in Chinese assets [9][10] - The influx of foreign capital into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has increased investor confidence, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [9][10] Group 5 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a combination of policy support, market conditions, and improvements in the fundamentals of insurance companies [24][29] - The recent adjustments in preset interest rates and the easing of capital constraints are likely to enhance the valuation recovery of insurance companies [24][30] Group 6 - Ping An is positioned as a key beneficiary of the current market dynamics, with significant growth in its new business value and improvements in its operational efficiency [38][40] - The company's integrated financial and healthcare ecosystem is expected to provide additional valuation premiums, distinguishing it from traditional insurance firms [40][41]
【策略】当前该追涨,还是寻找补涨?——策略周专题(2025年7月第3期)(张宇生/王国兴)
光大证券研究· 2025-07-28 01:28
Market Overview - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery this week, driven by increased risk appetite and favorable policies, with major indices generally rising [4] - Among the major indices, the Sci-Tech 50 saw the largest increase, while the Shanghai 50 had the smallest gain [4] Industry Performance - In terms of industry performance, sectors such as building materials, coal, and steel performed relatively well, while banking, telecommunications, and public utilities experienced declines [5] Investment Strategy - The current market trend may lean towards "rotating supplementary gains" rather than "stronger strengths," with historical data indicating that both patterns can occur during slow bull markets [6] - The likelihood of a strong economic recovery is low, suggesting that the market will exhibit a "rotating supplementary gains" characteristic [7] - Potential supplementary gain opportunities should focus on sectors that have lagged in performance but have historically shown strong recovery potential [7] Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, with the possibility of reaching new highs, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth [8] - Key investment themes for the medium to long term include domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend-paying stocks, with specific attention to sectors like AI, robotics, and defense [8]