智通财经APP获悉，受美国总统特朗普最新贸易政策影响，国际金价本周走出戏剧性波动。周一亚市早盘，金价从历史高位 急挫0.8%至3243.13美元/盎司，随后上演V型反转，一度突破前高并将历史高位刷新至3245.45美元/盎司，截至发稿，现货黄 金涨0.24%，报3243.86美元/盎司。值得注意的是，上周金价曾狂飙6%，突破3245美元/盎司大关，创下历史新高。 市场波动直接源于特朗普的关税"变脸术"。上周日，这位善变的总统突然暗示将对消费电子产品和微芯片加征特别关税，令 刚刚因"豁免对等关税"而稍缓的避险情绪再度升温。不过美元因此走强，反而压制了金价涨幅——毕竟黄金以美元计价，汇 率因素直接推高国际买家成本。 今年来金价已暴涨逾20%，成为动荡市场中难得的避险港湾。特朗普反复无常的贸易政策不仅引发全球经济衰退担忧，更导 致美股、美债、美元三大传统避险资产集体"失灵"。尤其是美债遭遇抛售潮，其避险属性遭遇空前质疑，资金被迫涌入黄金 这个"终极安全垫"。 "黄金市场显然在享受美元动荡带来的红利。"Pepperstone分析师克里斯·韦斯顿在报告中直言，当前市场呈现两极分化态势： 一方面空头因金价过热不敢贸然入场 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 避险情绪助推，金价再创新高 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格继续维持强势运行，国际金价站上3250美 元/盎司，再创历史新高，银价在大幅下挫后上周也强势 反弹站上32美元/盎司上方。上周四特朗普对于超过175个 国家暂缓90天征收对等关税政策，但市场对全球贸易量萎 缩的担忧加剧。美元指数持续大幅下挫，提振贵金属价格 走势。 ⚫ 最新公布的美国3月CPI、PPI数据都低于市场预期，显示 短期通胀压力缓解。但市场预计关税政策可能在未来推高 通胀， ...

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a historic moment, with COMEX gold futures reaching $3255 per ounce, marking a rapid increase from $3100 to $3200 in approximately 10 trading days [1] - Domestic gold futures in China also hit record highs, with the main contract peaking at 763.62 yuan per gram, closing at 757.30 yuan per gram, reflecting a daily increase of 2.71% [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar, driven by the Trump administration's tariff policies, is accelerating the process of de-dollarization globally, enhancing gold's monetary attributes [1] Group 2 - The liquidity crisis in US Treasury bonds is pushing funds towards gold, which has become a key driver for recent gold price increases [2] - The yield on US Treasury bonds surged by 50 basis points in three days, reaching around 4.5%, raising concerns about potential default risks and diminishing the traditional safe-haven function of US debt [2] - Despite gold's status as a safe asset, it may also be sold off during widespread asset declines to maintain liquidity, as financial institutions seek to prevent insolvency [2] Group 3 - Central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold at a record pace, exceeding 1000 tons annually over the past three years, with private investors also increasing their gold investments [3] - UBS recommends maintaining a 5% allocation to gold in dollar asset portfolios and predicts gold prices could reach the range of $3200 to $3500 [3]

当市场中的避险情绪上升，比如当美国总统特朗普忽然宣布对全球大部分国家征收关税时，股市整体都会下跌，绝大部分股票都会受其影响而被抛售。哪怕 一个公司的业绩和进出口贸易无关，其价格也会被大盘带动而下跌回撤。在这个时候，有些投资者会觉得他需要一些"避险资产"，或者"投资保险"，来保 护他的投资组合，维持他的理智，帮助他在价格暴跌时不至于被迫出售那些长期看好的股票。 那么问题来了：哪些资产可以帮助投资者达到"保险"的功能呢？ 第一个选项是 政府国债 。 这里的国债，主要指那些信用评级比较高的发达国家政府国债，比如美国、英国、澳大利亚、德国等。由于发行这些国债的国家政府信用评级比较高，市场 对他们比较信任，几乎不用担心他们像阿根廷政府那样违约，因此这些国家的政府国债是很多投资机构最青睐的"保险资产"之一。 前摩根士丹利策略师 Stephen Jen 曾提出过一个金融理论，叫做 美元微笑曲线 ，来解释美元在不同经济环境下为何能表现强势的现象。在全球风险上 升、经济衰退或金融市场动荡时，投资者寻求 " 避险资产 " 。美元因其全球储备货币地位以及美国国债市场的深度和流动性，被认为是最安全的资产。此 时，资本流入美国，美元升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of safe-haven assets during times of market volatility, highlighting government bonds, gold, and the US dollar as key options for investors seeking to protect their portfolios from downturns [1][2][6]. Group 1: Government Bonds - Government bonds, particularly from high-credit-rated developed countries like the US, UK, Australia, and Germany, are favored as safe-haven assets due to their reliability and low default risk [2][3]. - In economic downturns, central banks typically lower interest rates, which increases bond prices and provides investors with a protective function [2][3]. - The current yield on US 10-year government bonds is approximately 4.3%, offering decent returns while maintaining their role as a safe asset during market turmoil [3]. Group 2: Gold - Gold is highlighted as another significant safe-haven asset, especially during crises, as it is perceived to resist inflation due to its finite supply [4][5]. - Over the past year, gold prices have increased by around 50%, indicating its appeal during uncertain times [5]. - However, gold's price volatility poses risks, as it can spike during crises but may also decline sharply once the crisis subsides, necessitating careful timing by investors [5]. Group 3: US Dollar - The US dollar is recognized as a classic safe-haven asset, benefiting from its status as the global reserve currency and the depth of the US Treasury market [6][7]. - The "dollar smile" theory explains that the dollar appreciates during both economic downturns and periods of strong US economic performance, making it a reliable asset in various conditions [6][7]. - Concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset arise from geopolitical tensions and potential shifts in global economic dynamics, which could undermine its reserve currency status [7]. Group 4: Diversification Strategy - The article emphasizes that no single asset can guarantee protection against losses, advocating for a diversified investment approach to mitigate risks and achieve smoother returns [8]. - Investors are encouraged to maintain a long-term perspective and avoid being overly influenced by short-term market fluctuations [9].

Group 1: Safe-Haven Assets Performance - Gold prices recently surpassed $3000, reaching a historical high due to concerns over economic recession and increased demand from central banks [1] - Despite a brief spike to nearly $3150, gold prices have stabilized above $3000, reaffirming its status as a safe-haven asset [2] - Analysts from Bank of America maintain a target price of $3500 for gold, citing increased policy uncertainty under President Trump as a factor driving gold prices higher [2] Group 2: Currency Trends - The US dollar, typically viewed as a safe-haven currency, has faced significant declines following tariff announcements, raising questions about its safe-haven status [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that the dollar's failure to strengthen suggests a potential threat to its safe-haven position, linked to a rising current account deficit [2][3] - Investors are increasingly turning to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, both of which have seen rebounds amid market volatility [3] Group 3: US Treasury Bonds - US Treasury bonds are traditionally considered "risk-free" investments, with their value typically rising during economic turmoil [3] - Historical performance post-2008 financial crisis showed that US Treasuries were one of the few asset classes to appreciate, even experiencing negative yields at times [3] - Recent aggressive selling in the US Treasury market has raised concerns about its traditional safe-haven status, with significant increases in bond yields observed [5] Group 4: Defensive Stocks - Defensive stocks, such as Costco, tend to maintain stable performance regardless of economic conditions, providing essential goods and services [5] - Despite a slight decline in Costco's stock price, it has remained relatively stable compared to other retailers like Walmart and Amazon, which have seen more significant drops [5] Group 5: Cash as a Safe-Haven - Cash is viewed as a safe-haven asset due to its lack of investment risk, although it can depreciate in value during inflationary periods [6] - Some analysts prefer bonds over cash for their potential yield and appreciation opportunities, despite cash's stability [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are gaining traction as a hedge against market volatility caused by ongoing tariff disputes, with significant price increases observed in several gold mining companies [1][3][4]. Gold Market Performance - Gold prices increased by over 3% as investors sought safe-haven assets amid stock market sell-offs triggered by tariffs [3][4]. - Gold stocks, particularly those of companies with strong operational performances, have rallied due to the direct impact of rising gold prices on their financials [5]. Company Highlights - Newmont Corporation, the world's second-largest gold company, saw its shares rise by 8.8% with a market capitalization of $52.2 billion [2]. - Harmony Gold reported a 19% increase in revenue and a 33% surge in net income, despite a 4% drop in production, with cash flow from operations increasing by 46% year-over-year [6]. - AngloGold Ashanti's revenue jumped 26% in 2024, leading to a net profit of $1 billion compared to a net loss of $222 million in 2023, with a dividend yield of 4.1% [7]. - Iamgold Corp experienced a 43% increase in gold production and a 65% rise in revenue to $1.6 billion in 2024, projecting further growth in 2025 [10]. - Newmont Mining reported a net income of $3.4 billion in 2024, recovering from a net loss of $2.5 billion in 2023, and generated $6.3 billion in cash flow from operations [11]. Future Outlook - The year 2025 is anticipated to be significant for gold mining companies, with expectations of continued growth driven by rising gold prices amid ongoing trade tensions [12].

Group 1 - The recent auction of $58 billion 3-year U.S. Treasury bonds faced poor demand, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.47, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - The awarded yield for the 3-year bonds was 3.784%, significantly higher than the pre-auction yield of 3.760%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1] - Direct bidders, including hedge funds and pension funds, received only 6.2% of the bonds, marking one of the lowest participation rates in history, down from 26% the previous month [1] Group 2 - Concerns are rising that foreign investors are withdrawing from the U.S. Treasury market, as indicated by the poor performance of the recent bond auction [2] - Upcoming auctions for $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year Treasury bonds are expected to be critical in assessing demand for longer-duration securities [2] - Analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in U.S. Treasuries signals a shift away from the U.S. as a safe haven for fixed income, with investors potentially favoring bonds from Europe and Australia [2] Group 3 - Asian investment-grade bonds have shown resilience amid global risk asset sell-offs, outperforming U.S. investment-grade bonds with lower spread widening [2] - Focus on local markets with stable fundamentals is expected to provide investment opportunities in Asian bond issuers, particularly in sectors like TMT, utilities, and non-banking financial companies in India [3]

黄金等避险资产一键开户买入>>> 现货黄金短线拉涨14美元，现报3018美元/盎司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has experienced significant volatility since April 3, reaching historical highs before dropping below $3,000, influenced by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Fluctuations - On April 3, the London gold price peaked at $3,167.74 per ounce, while COMEX gold surpassed $3,200, marking historical highs [1]. - By April 7, both London gold and COMEX gold fell below the $3,000 mark for the first time since March 21, with COMEX gold closing at $2,998.8 per ounce after a brief recovery [1]. - The price of gold jewelry from brands like Chow Tai Fook dropped to 918 yuan per gram, a decrease of 14 yuan from the previous day and 44 yuan from the peak on April 3 [1]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy is viewed as a key factor behind the decline in gold and other asset prices, signaling an escalation in international trade tensions [2]. - The implementation of these tariffs has led to increased market uncertainty, affecting investor sentiment and risk appetite [2]. - Historical trends indicate that during early stages of liquidity risk, gold prices may decline alongside risk assets due to investor behavior and liquidity needs [2]. Group 3: Silver Price Sensitivity - Silver prices have shown even greater volatility than gold, with COMEX silver dropping nearly 15% and London silver over 12% from April 3 to April 4 [3]. - The industrial applications of silver, alongside its safe-haven attributes, make it more susceptible to market fluctuations, especially in light of potential impacts from tariff policies on global trade and industrial output [3]. - The silver market is characterized by higher speculation, making it more reactive to significant events or policy changes compared to the gold market [3].