Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of China's economy in the first half of 2023, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, and the importance of balancing growth and transformation in future policies [1][2]. Economic Trends - The article identifies three key trends: 1. Long-term resilience in exports 2. Strong performance in the cultural and tourism consumption market 3. Accelerated growth in high-tech manufacturing, with its value-added growth outpacing that of all industrial sectors [2]. - The economic situation is summarized with four words: stable, real, new, and optimized, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2]. Policy Recommendations - There is a call to strengthen macroeconomic policies with a focus on people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for effective interaction between investment and consumption [3][4]. - The article stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with a focus on improving consumption and addressing structural changes in the market [4]. Competition Issues - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in competition, indicating that there are no beneficiaries in such a competitive environment, leading to a win-lose or lose-lose situation [5][6]. - It highlights the need for regulatory measures to address low-price and disorderly competition, promoting product quality and the orderly exit of outdated capacities [5][6]. Fair Competition - The distinction between fair competition and "involution" is crucial, as fair competition allows for dynamic equilibrium through price signals, while "involution" distorts these signals [6][7]. - The article advocates for the implementation of fair competition review regulations to ensure that industrial policies and competition policies work in tandem, allowing market forces to dictate production and operational behaviors [7][8]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests that attracting investment should focus on a chain-oriented approach, avoiding excessive competition for existing resources, and tailoring strategies to local advantages [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market shows a significant positive sentiment, with major tech stocks experiencing substantial gains, driven by favorable policies and external market conditions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the 15th, major tech stocks in Hong Kong surged, with Alibaba rising nearly 7%, Meituan and Baidu up over 4%, and Tencent increasing over 3%. The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.8% [1]. - The data sector saw a notable increase of nearly 8%, with companies like Kingsoft Cloud and GDS Holdings rising significantly [5]. - The overall market sentiment was bolstered by external factors, as major Asian and European indices also reported gains, indicating a reduction in tariff concerns [6]. Group 2: Domestic Positive Factors - The National Bureau of Statistics announced measures to combat "involution" in certain industries, aiming to improve market order and enhance corporate profitability, which is expected to support economic restructuring and high-quality development [7]. - Taobao's 500 billion yuan consumption voucher initiative has led to a more than twofold increase in night orders in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen since July, with over 640,000 stores seeing monthly growth exceeding 100% [8]. - NVIDIA received U.S. government approval to export its H20 chip to China, which has positively impacted related sectors [9]. Group 3: Liquidity and Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about the Hong Kong dollar's weakness affecting liquidity, bond sales in Hong Kong surged to a record 1.28 trillion HKD (approximately 163 billion USD) in Q2, reflecting a 20% increase from the previous quarter [12][13]. - The low borrowing costs, supported by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's liquidity injections, provide a favorable environment for fundraising [14]. - Investor sentiment has reached its highest level since February, driven by optimism regarding profits and a record increase in risk appetite, although some analysts warn of an "overheated" market [15][16].

Group 1 - The Chinese government is formulating measures to address the issue of "involution" in certain industries and companies, aiming to enhance market order and competition [1] - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on legal governance of low-price disorderly competition and encouraging companies to improve product quality [1] - These policies are expected to improve market order, enhance supply-demand relationships, promote reasonable price recovery, and ultimately support corporate profit improvement and economic structural adjustment [1] Group 2 - The government is increasing fiscal policy support, including promoting consumption through trade-in programs and supporting industrial equipment upgrades [2] - There is a push for high-level opening up to expand trade diversification and reduce reliance on single markets [2] - The implementation of these measures is anticipated to have a significant positive impact on consumption, investment stability, and foreign trade, contributing to overall economic stability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics emphasizes the need for regulatory measures to address intensified "involution" competition in certain industries and companies, aiming to enhance market order and promote high-quality economic development [1] Group 1: Regulatory Measures - The Central Financial Committee held a meeting on July 1, which highlighted the importance of advancing the construction of a unified national market [1] - The meeting called for legal governance of low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, encouraging improvements in product quality [1] - Relevant departments are formulating measures based on the meeting's spirit to strengthen market order regulation [1] Group 2: Economic Impact - The proposed policies are expected to improve market supply-demand relationships and promote reasonable price recovery [1] - These measures are anticipated to enhance corporate profits and vitality, contributing to economic structural adjustments and high-quality development [1]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for both stock index futures and bond futures are "sideways" [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market showed a mixed performance with the Wind All A index rising 0.17% and a turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.02%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.1%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.04%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.07%. The manufacturing sector was strong, while real estate and non-banking sectors pulled back. The market has high expectations for corporate profit recovery and inflation stabilization under the "anti-involution" policy, but the impact of this policy still depends on the scale and transmission mode of central fiscal policies. Overseas, the strong "non-farm" data has slightly slowed down the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, and the boost to domestic small-cap indices has weakened significantly. The fundamentals of the index still depend on the domestic economic recovery process. Although the corporate profit situation in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared to 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index is expected to move sideways in the short term [1] - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year treasury bond futures contracts all closed lower, with declines of 0.18%, 0.08%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1197 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 both increased. In July, the central bank will conduct 14000 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2000 billion yuan. In June, export growth and financial data exceeded expectations, and the bond market was under pressure due to the tightening of the capital market. However, with the support of monetary policy, there is no expectation of a significant tightening of the capital market, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. Therefore, the bond market is expected to move sideways in the short term [2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,747.4 | 2,751.6 | -4.2 | -0.15% | | IF | 3,985.8 | 3,993.4 | -7.6 | -0.19% | | IC | 6,008.4 | 6,023.0 | -14.6 | -0.24% | | IM | 6,302.2 | 6,319.8 | -17.6 | -0.28% | [4] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,757.8 | 2,756.8 | 1.0 | 0.04% | | SSE 300 | 4,017.7 | 4,014.8 | 2.9 | 0.07% | | CSI 500 | 6,020.9 | 6,027.1 | -6.2 | -0.10% | | CSI 1000 | 6,462.3 | 6,461.1 | 1.2 | 0.02% | [4] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-11 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.38 | 102.42 | -0.036 | -0.04% | | TF | 105.92 | 106.00 | -0.075 | -0.07% | | T | 108.73 | 108.83 | -0.1 | -0.09% | | TL | 120.29 | 120.61 | -0.32 | -0.27% | [4] Group 4: Market News - As of the end of June 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In the first half of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5] - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 5.0% [5] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][8] Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts showing the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis, inter-period spreads, cross-variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][17] Exchange Rates - The report includes charts showing the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro, and other currencies against the RMB, as well as forward exchange rates and currency indices [21][22][23] Group 6: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of macro-financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [29] - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, focusing on macro fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29]

Group 1: Tax System Reform and Economic Impact - The VAT has become the largest tax type in China, maintaining a stable share of 35-40% since 2016, with a compound growth rate of -7.4% in 2022, 4.5% in 2023, and 17.0% in 2024, indicating a significant acceleration in growth[3] - In 2024, VAT revenue accounted for 49.5% of local fiscal revenue, the highest in history, reflecting the declining support of land finance for local governments[3] - The average share of VAT revenue in local fiscal income from 2016 to 2022 was 45.3%, increasing to over 49% from 2023, coinciding with a period of negative domestic price levels[3] Group 2: Price Control and Market Dynamics - The current fiscal and tax system may create unreasonable incentives for local governments to stimulate production, which could hinder the establishment of a unified national market[3] - Shifting the consumption tax collection point from production to sales could enhance local governments' focus on consumption, as local sales would directly impact their tax revenue[3] - Optimizing the fiscal and tax system can reduce local governments' supply impulses and increase their emphasis on consumption, potentially alleviating price pressures from both supply and demand sides[3] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession alongside unexpected monetary policies from major economies[3]

Group 1 - The construction of a unified national market is essential for building a new development pattern and promoting high-quality development, as emphasized by Xi Jinping [1] - Various regions and departments are focusing on "five unifications and one openness" to advance the construction of a unified national market, aiming to break small cycles and facilitate large cycles [1][5] - By the end of 2024, Inner Mongolia will integrate public resource trading systems across its cities, creating a unified online platform for natural resource transactions, with over 800 transactions completed and a total transaction amount exceeding 16 billion [1] Group 2 - A comprehensive public resource trading platform system is being established in Inner Mongolia to achieve integrated and digitized trading processes [2] - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is enhancing transportation integration, fostering collaboration between Shenzhen and Zhongshan, with 735 government services now available for joint processing [2] - The implementation of the national standard for enterprise procurement material classification will establish a unified identification system and standard language for procurement across the country starting September 1 [2] Group 3 - Breaking local protectionism and administrative monopolies is a key task for accelerating the construction of a unified national market, with actions taken by various government departments to clear market access barriers [3] - The introduction of specific measures to limit the abuse of administrative power will promote fair competition and create a more vibrant market environment [3] - Unified market supervision and law enforcement are being promoted to enhance regulatory efficiency, with measures in place to avoid redundant inspections [3][4] Group 4 - The overall business environment in China is improving, with the foundational elements of a unified national market being established, which will enhance the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of standardizing government procurement and bidding processes to enhance fairness in the results of bids [1] - Government procurement is a significant method of fiscal expenditure, linking the government with the market and impacting public interest and the business environment [1] - Despite the expanding scope and scale of government procurement in China, issues that hinder fair competition still occur, necessitating ongoing efforts to regulate these processes [1] Group 2 - The article calls for the improvement of laws and regulations, strengthening management across the entire procurement chain, and establishing a sound government procurement transaction system [1] - Continuous regulatory efforts are needed, particularly in eliminating hidden barriers and behaviors that obstruct fair competition in the government procurement sector [1]

■本报记者 郝飞 日前召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议提出，"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设"。 业内人士普遍认为，银行作为金融服务实体经济的重要力量，应通过多种创新举措助力企业摒弃低价无 序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，为全国统一大市场建设注入强大动力。 金融精准赋能 低价无序竞争是困扰我国部分行业发展的顽疾之一。为争夺市场份额，部分行业企业不惜以牺牲利润甚 至产品质量为代价大打"价格战"。这种竞争模式不仅不利于企业长期发展，也扰乱了市场秩序，阻碍产 业升级和经济高质量发展。 为解决这一问题，银行业通过多种方式为企业摆脱低价无序竞争、优化商业环境提供支持。 一方面，银行业优化信贷资源配置，引导企业将资金投入技术创新和产品升级。例如，中国银行洛阳分 行推出"认证贷"产品，将企业质量认证结果与信贷额度挂钩。获得相关质量管理体系认证、服务认证等 资质的小微企业，最高可获2000万元信用贷款，且利率低于同类产品。这一机制通过"质量认证—信用 增信—融资支持—发展升级"闭环生态，将企业"软实力"转为"硬资产"，有效遏制通过降低品质换取低 价的短视行为。截至今年5月末，该分行已为近万家民营企业提供665亿元信贷支持，其中超30 ...