市场回顾 11月美国CPI通胀数据低于市场预期。CPI同比增速降至2.7%（市场预期3.1%），核心CPI同比增长2.6% （市场预期3.0%），为2021年3月以来的最低水平。商品通胀明显回落。4-9月商品CPI通胀上行2.1pct至 1.9%，10-11月回落0.1pct至1.8%。环比增速亦大幅放缓，10-11月合计仅涨0.1%，相比之下8-9月合计涨 幅达到1.0%。原因可能在于财富效应对消费的支撑边际回落和关税影响消退。四季度美股陷入震荡行 情，结束了三季度的单边上涨，财富效应开始拖累居民消费，10-11月商品价格合计仅增0.1%，企业部 门针对关税的调价应该在中美贸易新框架下已经结束。这份通胀数据参考意义实际上比较有限。在美国 政府停摆期间，数据收集停止，劳工局使用非调查数据源进行计算，这使得数据的可比性存疑。降息预 期在数字公布后有所提升，但明年1月不降息的概率仍然高达72.3%，明年3月降息的概率维持在50%以 下，美国政府对于降低国债付息压力的诉求等原因是决定降息节奏的主要因素。 股市策略展望 上周综述 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能小幅提升。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind ...

12月25日，在"春季躁动"的氛围中，沪指强势收出"7连阳"，来到3950点上方，区间上涨3.52%。 近期宏观环境、政策方向和科技主线都出现利好：人民币汇率破7、北京住房限购政策进一步松绑，以 及央行连续第10个月加量续做，商业航天、机器人双主线爆发。那市场能否继续上攻，冲击8连阳？ 2024年9月：沪指曾录得10连阳（其中2个假阴线），区间涨幅高达+29.06%，背景是市场底+国内政策 组合拳+美联储降息+外资抄底； 2024年2月：沪指曾录得8连阳，区间涨幅+11.20%，背景是中小盘雪球产品敲入风险+大资金托底。 其中，区间涨幅最大的是2024年9月，叠加了美联储降息、国内政策大转向的政策及流动性利好。 中国银河（601881）证券表示：后续春季躁动行情值得期待。短期可关注防御性板块配置机会，同时布 局2026年政策红利与产业景气方向。2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，政策红利释放节奏预计相对靠 前，结构性机会将集中在政策导向与产业景气共振的赛道。 关注沪深300，被称为A股整体走势的"晴雨表"。涵盖金融、科技、消费等多个重要行业，风格均衡， 能够有效分散投资风险。全市场跟踪沪深300指数的ETF ...

其二，资金面积极向好，2025年A股市场年成交额已突破400万亿元创历史新高，险资、社保基金等长 期资金持续入市，外资也因中国资产的估值优势不断流入，为市场提供了坚实的资金基础； 量能层面，两市全天成交额达到19245亿元，环比放量443亿元。量能的有效放大，既是市场交投活跃的 直接体现，也为后续行情的延续提供了重要支撑，这一点值得投资者重点关注。 板块维度，今日市场呈现普涨格局，行业与主题热点多点开花。申万一级行业中，国防军工板块以 2.91%的涨幅领跑全场，成为今日市场的核心主线；机械设备、轻工制造、汽车板块紧随其后，涨幅分 别达到1.51%、1.59%和1.46%，形成了清晰的领涨梯队。 其中，航天相关概念的表现尤为亮眼，堪称今日市场的"明星板块"。万得航天装备精选指数暴涨9.99% 近乎涨停，航天科技系指数大涨7.27%，商业航天指数上涨4.95%，大飞机指数上涨4.7%。个股方面， 神剑股份实现6连板，再升科技、创元科技、天奥电子等十余股集体涨停，赚钱效应极为显著。 除了航天板块，今日造纸板块也表现不俗，纸业精选指数上涨5.26%，恒达新材20cm封板，博汇纸业、 宜宾纸业等多股涨停，背后主要受益于 ...

证券研究报告 建筑装饰 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 25 日 证券分析师 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 林高凡 lingaofan@huayuanstock.com 重视"春季躁动" ，寻"重大工程"轨迹布局 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——建筑装饰行业周报（20251215-20251221） 投资要点： 本周观点： 联系人 2025 年建筑板块回顾：指数表现分化，我们看好 2026 年建筑板块整体表现。我们从两类不 同视角对建筑板块进行复盘。1）是从年内涨跌幅结构看，截至 2025 年 11 月，SW 建筑装 饰指数累计上涨 8.88%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数，但板块内部结构分化明显。其中，民营建 筑企业受并购重组及新业务拓展推动，相关 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the A-share market, particularly the strong performance of the securities and ChiNext ETFs, indicating a favorable investment environment as the market approaches the spring season [1][3]. - The Securities ETF (159841) recorded a turnover of 2.37 billion yuan with a turnover rate of 2.3%, while the tracked index, the CSI All Share Securities Companies Index (399975), rose by 0.75% [1]. - The ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) saw a transaction volume of 1.19 billion yuan, with the ChiNext Index (399006) increasing by 0.77%, marking its third consecutive rise [1]. Group 2 - Over the past six months, the ChiNext ETF Tianhong (159977) has experienced a significant growth of 9.32 billion shares, reflecting a robust increase in market activity [2]. - The securities industry is expected to maintain high revenue and net profit growth in Q3, indicating an improved industry outlook [2]. - The ChiNext ETF focuses on new productive forces, with the top three sectors being power equipment (27.4%), telecommunications (17.4%), and electronics (14.3%), aligning with the current economic transformation and industrial upgrade [2]. Group 3 - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving six consecutive days of gains, leading to increased discussions about a potential spring rally [3]. - Analysts from Huaxi Securities suggest that favorable conditions for a "spring rally" are accumulating, driven by positive policy impacts and improved corporate earnings [3]. - Recent large-scale net subscriptions of stock ETFs indicate that investors are inclined to buy on dips, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards increased risk appetite [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a significant recovery in equity market sentiment, with major stock indices generally rising and small-cap stocks experiencing a rebound [1][2] - The report highlights that the Shanghai Composite Index has recorded six consecutive days of gains, with a cumulative increase of 3.04% since December 17, reflecting a strong market bottom and positive investor sentiment [1][2] - The report suggests that the current market rally may be an early onset of spring dynamics, with historical patterns indicating that most year-end rallies tend to touch previous highs before retreating [2] Group 2 - The report notes that the CSI A500-related ETFs have seen substantial net inflows, with a net inflow of 13.374 billion yuan on December 23 and a total of 69.179 billion yuan from December 11 to 23, accounting for 25.16% of the total scale of these ETFs [3] - It is observed that other broad-based ETFs did not experience significant net inflows during the same period, indicating that incremental capital may be waiting for more certainty before entering the market [3] Group 3 - In the bond market, despite frequent news impacts, market stability is gradually strengthening, with long-term interest rates maintaining a low volatility state [4][6] - The report discusses the People's Bank of China's (PBOC) recent monetary policy actions, including a net injection of 30 billion yuan in mid-to-long-term funds in December, which is slightly lower than previous months [6][7] - The report highlights that the PBOC's recent statements suggest a shift in focus from the quantity of credit to the quality and actual demand for loans, indicating a potential decrease in urgency for further interest rate cuts [7] Group 4 - The report indicates that the domestic commodity market has maintained high bullish sentiment for three consecutive days, with precious metals, particularly silver, showing strong performance [8][9] - It notes that silver has significantly outperformed gold, with a daily increase of 8.12%, driven by a combination of market dynamics and fundamental supply-demand factors [9] - The report also mentions that the lithium carbonate supply logic is facing a temporary correction due to the anticipated resumption of production at a lithium mining project, which may challenge current trading logic [10]

Group 1 - The core sentiment in the market is a growing anticipation for a year-end rally centered around AI, with expectations for a spring surge following the year-end [3][8] - Significant activity was noted in the computing hardware sector, with leading companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Beijing Junzheng seeing stock increases of over 2% and 8% respectively [1][6] - The largest and most liquid AI-focused ETF, the ChiNext AI ETF (159363), experienced a closing price increase of 1.33%, marking its second-highest closing price, with a substantial net inflow of 1 billion shares on that day [1][6] Group 2 - Institutions are optimistic about the market's performance, citing stable inflows from domestic investors and potential increases in overseas investments due to the appreciation of the RMB [3][8] - Nvidia plans to deliver its second-ranked AI chip, the H200, to Chinese customers by mid-February 2024, which is expected to positively impact sales and benefit the traditional overseas computing supply chain [9][10] - The computing infrastructure investment is projected to maintain its growth momentum, with light module orders and GPU orders from Nvidia indicating a robust demand outlook [4][10] Group 3 - The ChiNext AI ETF (159363) has a current scale exceeding 3.8 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of over 600 million yuan in the past month, ranking first among seven ETFs tracking the ChiNext AI index [4][10] - The ETF's portfolio is heavily weighted towards computing hardware, with over 70% allocated to this sector and more than 20% to AI applications, allowing for effective capture of AI market trends [10]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound, with the consumption ETF (159928) declining by 0.5% and a trading volume exceeding 380 million yuan [1] - The consumption ETF has seen a net subscription of over 130 million units during the day, accumulating a significant net inflow of over 700 million yuan over three days [1] Spring Market Expectations - As the year-end approaches, discussions about the spring market are intensifying, with analysts expecting positive policies to boost investor confidence [3] - The anticipated improvement in corporate earnings and favorable liquidity conditions are expected to contribute to a "spring rally," with technology growth and domestic consumption identified as key investment themes [3] Valuation Insights - The consumption ETF's underlying index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 19.32, placing it in the 2.8% percentile over the past decade, indicating a high valuation attractiveness [5] - Seasonal trends in Q4 suggest a potential shift in market style towards undervalued sectors, particularly in December [5] Investment Themes - The rotation between domestic demand and technology themes is noted, with significant inflows into sectors like dairy, retail, and food processing [7] - External factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the Bank of Japan's rate hikes are expected to stabilize market risk appetite [7] AI Applications - The domestic AI industry is entering a phase of large-scale demonstration applications, driven by advancements in computing architecture and product iterations [8] - Notable developments include the launch of new GPU architectures and AI health applications achieving significant user engagement [8] Commercial Aerospace - The upcoming launch of the Long March 12 rocket and advancements in satellite networking are highlighted as key developments in China's commercial aerospace sector [9] - The National Space Administration's action plan aims to support the development of new technologies and applications in commercial aerospace [9] Hainan Free Trade Zone - The Hainan Free Trade Port has officially launched its full island closure, with significant foreign investment projects commencing operations [9] - The first day of customs supervision saw substantial imports benefiting from zero tariffs, indicating a positive start for the free trade zone [9] Domestic Consumption - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are being implemented, with new consumption scenarios emerging in sports events, tourism, and cultural activities [10] - The expected growth in ice and snow sports consumption is projected to exceed 187.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [10] New Consumption Trends - The Chinese consumption market is characterized by structural highlights despite overall weak demand, with new products and channels gaining traction [11] - Health-conscious consumption trends are accelerating, particularly in sectors like health supplements and functional foods [11] ETF Composition - The consumption ETF's top ten constituent stocks account for over 68.55% of its weight, with leading liquor brands and major agricultural companies prominently featured [12]

12月24日消息，A股三大指数集体上涨，截止发稿，A500ETF南方（159352）涨幅0.49％，成交额84亿 元。资金流向方面，A500ETF南方（159352）已连续15天获得资金净申购，最新规模418.38亿元。该基 金近5日获108.25亿元净流入，近10日获得179.61亿元净流入，近20日获得196.13亿元净申购。市场 对"春季躁动"行情的期待逐渐升温，机构持续看好中国资产。高盛认为，中国股市周期正从"预期驱 动"转向"盈利驱动"，在这一阶段，盈利兑现与估值温和扩张将成为推动回报的核心动力。华西证券李 立峰团队分析认为，"春季躁动"的积极条件正在积累。 历史数据显示，A股"春季躁动"行情启动通常需 满足合理的估值水平、宽松的流动性环境以及有效提振风险偏好的催化剂。当前来看，海外美联储降息 和日本央行加息均已落地，市场对套利交易逆转担忧缓解。资料显示，A500ETF南方（159352）紧密跟 踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券作为指数样本，以反 映各行业具有代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。作为A股宽基指数"新势力"，中证A500行业覆盖更广， 相比沪 ...

从盘面上看，保险、煤炭、酿酒、银行等板块走低；军工、半导体、汽车等板块拉升，商业航天概念爆 发，液冷服务器、特高压概念等活跃。 财信证券认为，短期内大盘或维持震荡反弹势头，不过在全市场成交额暂未稳定在2万亿元以上的情况 下，仍以板块轮动思维参与市场，把握好结构性机会。展望后续，随着11月份经济数据公布以及海外三 大央行利率决议落地，宏观经济数据对市场影响消退，流动性及风险偏好对市场影响将增加，叠加国内 政策利好预期，市场有望逐步演绎"春季躁动"行情，指数放量突破均线将是观察"春季躁动"行情开启的 关键信号。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 24日早盘，两市主要股指盘中震荡上扬，全A近3900股飘红。 截至午间收盘，沪指涨0.24%报3929.25点，深证成指涨0.31%，创业板指微涨0.08%，沪深北三市合计成 交11593亿元。 ...