中东紧张局势升级，摩根大通警告原油或升至130美元。 据央视新闻最新报道，当地时间12日凌晨，以色列对伊朗发动袭击。环球网援引据沙特媒体哈达斯消息 称，以色列国防部长卡茨宣布以色列对伊朗发动先发制人的打击。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通首席大宗商品分析师Natasha Kaneva在其最新发布的报告中分析称，当前 油价接近70美元，较其模型估算的6月公允价值66美元高出约4美元，暗示市场已计入7%的最坏情境概 率。 历史上，尽管伊朗多次威胁封锁海峡——尤其是在1980年代伊朗-伊拉克战争"油轮战争"期间，以及 2007-2008年与美国海军的对峙中——但海峡从未真正关闭。 摩根大通分析认为，伊朗之所以始终未封锁霍尔木兹海峡，是因为封锁成本对伊朗自身而言过于高昂。 不仅会违背国际准则，更将直接威胁海湾国家经济利益，可能孤立伊朗于海湾合作委员会（GCC）。 报告进一步指出，而一旦冲突升级至全面战争，这一"红线"可能被突破。 市场的理性与疯狂 摩根大通对油价的基本预测依然谨慎，认为2025年剩余时间油价将维持在60美元/桶中低区间，2026年 为60美元/桶。 Kaneva进一步指出，如果冲突扩大，油价反应将呈指数级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the sensitivity of U.S. shale oil activity to oil prices, particularly under $60 per barrel, indicating that a $1 change in WTI price could risk 4-5 drilling rigs and 2-3 hydraulic fracturing platforms [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The IEA model shows a better linear relationship between the number of rigs and the lagged WTI price when the price is below $60 [1][3]. - In April-May 2025, WTI oil prices fell by approximately $10 per barrel, leading to a notable decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs [1][3]. - By early June, the number of oil rigs decreased by 42 compared to the end of March, while natural gas rigs increased by 11 [1][3]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Adjustments - U.S. shale oil companies have been maintaining capital expenditure discipline, with many lowering their annual capital expenditure guidance following the drop in oil prices [2]. - Despite the reduction in capital expenditure guidance, the production guidance for oil and gas remained largely unchanged, although some companies plan to reduce oil rig counts while increasing natural gas rig counts [2]. Group 3: Production Costs and Breakeven Points - In Q1 2025, shale oil production costs continued to experience deflation, attributed to reduced rig counts, lower oil prices, and declining service costs [4]. - The latest analysis indicates that the breakeven oil prices for major shale oil companies range from $45 to $62 per barrel, with an average of $54 per barrel, slightly lower than in 2024 [5]. - The highest breakeven point is noted for Western Oil at $62 per barrel [5]. Group 4: Production Willingness - Shale oil companies are likely to increase production only if oil prices rise to the $65-$70 range [7]. - In the $50-$60 range, companies may maintain current activity levels but could slightly reduce rig counts while focusing on efficiency [7]. - Below $50, a significant reduction in production is anticipated [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the oil and gas industry [6][7]. Core Views - OPEC+ has announced a continuation of production increases of 411,000 barrels per day for July, significantly impacting oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies [1][2]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to stabilize between $65 and $75 per barrel in 2025, while WTI crude oil is projected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [3][18]. Summary by Sections 1. May Oil Price Review - In May 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $64.0 per barrel, down by $2.5 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $61.3 per barrel, down by $1.5 [1][14]. - The fluctuations in oil prices were influenced by the "reciprocal tariff" policy, OPEC+ production announcements, and geopolitical events in the Middle East [1][14]. 2. Oil Price Outlook - OPEC+ has decided to extend production increases of 411,000 barrels per day, which is three times the original increase plan [2][16]. - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global oil demand of 730,000 to 1,300,000 barrels per day in 2025, and 760,000 to 1,280,000 barrels per day in 2026 [3][17]. 3. Key Data Tracking - As of May 30, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settled at $60.79 per barrel, a 4.4% increase from the previous month, while Brent settled at $63.90 per barrel, a 1.2% increase [36]. - The average production of U.S. crude oil in May 2025 was 13.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous month [44]. - The report highlights that the capital expenditure willingness in overseas markets is low, indicating a lack of conditions for significant production increases [44][29]. 4. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends key stocks including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, CNOOC Development, and Guanghui Energy [4].

新华财经纽约6月4日电（记者刘亚南）由于上周美国商业石油库存大幅增加，国际油价在隔夜市场窄幅 盘整，4日早盘震荡走高，随后快速走低，午后窄幅盘整，收盘时国际油价均下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌0.56美元，收于每桶62.85美元，跌幅 为0.88%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌0.77美元，收于每桶64.86美元，跌幅为1.17%。 美国石油学会在3日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降330万桶，汽油和蒸馏油 库存则分别环比增加470万桶和76万桶。 东京NLI研究所高级经济学家上野豪（TsuyoshiUeno）表示，尽管存在对加拿大供应减少的担忧，美国 与伊朗核问题谈判停滞，石油市场进一步走高面临困难。此外，欧佩克+的供应增加限制油价的上涨。 上野豪说，由于投资者对关税带来的经济影响依然感到谨慎，获利了结让对中美经贸会谈取得进展的期 望蒙上阴影。 美国普莱斯期货集团高级市场分析师菲尔·弗林表示，最近几日油价上涨主要是由于供应收紧和地缘政 治因素，加拿大的野火也刺激油价走高。目前，大火已经让加拿大油砂产能关闭34.4万桶／日。 （文章来源：新华财经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Oscillating with an upward bias [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillating [2] - Asphalt: Oscillating [2] - Polyester: Oscillating with a downward bias [3] - Rubber: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Methanol: Oscillating [4] - Polyolefins: Oscillating with a downward bias [4] - Polyvinyl chloride: Oscillating [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - The wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to a reduction in crude oil supply, supporting oil prices. In the short - term, oil prices are expected to continue to rebound due to short - term demand support and geopolitical disturbances [1]. - For fuel oil, OPEC+ maintaining the production increase rate eases the pressure on oil prices at the cost end. Short - term prices of FU and LU are expected to stabilize and rise. The spread between LU - FU is expected to be stable, and it is advisable to wait and see. The short - term anti - arbitrage market of FU07 may continue, but the profit margin may be limited [2]. - For asphalt, although there is support at the bottom in the short - term due to factors such as low production plans and inventory control, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show a pattern of short - term high - level oscillation and medium - term downward pressure [2]. - For polyester, with the supply recovery of TA and the high operating load of the downstream polyester end, under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - For rubber, the fundamentals are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to decline. The price of butadiene rubber is also weak due to weak demand [4]. - For methanol, although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support. Attention should be paid to the rebound opportunity [4]. - For polyolefins, the marginal change in demand is not significant, and the market is in the off - season. The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - For polyvinyl chloride, the fundamentals are loose in June, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. The main contract V2509 has the expectation of a peak season, but the upward space is limited due to weak fundamentals. The price is expected to maintain low - level oscillation, and the basis and inter - month spread will gradually strengthen [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude oil**: On Tuesday, the oil price center continued to rise. The WTI July contract closed up $0.89 to $63.41 per barrel, a 1.42% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $1.00 to $65.63 per barrel, a 1.55% increase; the SC2507 closed at 469.0 yuan per barrel, up 4.0 yuan per barrel, a 0.86% increase. Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. EIA data showed that before the driving season, the average retail gasoline price in the US before the Memorial Day weekend was 14% lower than last year, and the gasoline consumption during the Memorial Day weekend increased by 2% compared with the same period last year [1]. - **Fuel oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.85% at 2,913 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2507 closed up 1.47% at 3,509 yuan per ton. The inflow of low - sulfur arbitrage cargoes from Northwest Europe to the Singapore market is expected to increase in June, but the short - term supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is temporarily tight. For high - sulfur fuel oil, the supply from Russia is expected to continue to rise, but Iran's exports remain low, and the power generation demand in the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa is expected to increase significantly [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.22% at 3,482 yuan per ton. In June, the rainy weather in the south restricts the release of terminal demand, but the planned production level of refineries is not high. With the slow release of demand in the north and the low supply in North China, the supply in Shandong is expected to decrease, which provides bottom support for the asphalt price in the short - term. However, the upward space is limited, and the price is expected to show high - level oscillation in the short - term and downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4,628 yuan per ton yesterday, down 1.53%; EG2509 closed at 4,306 yuan per ton, down 0.99%. An East China 3 million - ton PTA plant restarted yesterday, and a 340,000 - ton/year MEG plant in East China has restarted. A large domestic polyester bottle - chip manufacturer has recently reduced production, involving nearly 700,000 tons of production capacity, and there are plans for further production reduction. The PX fundamentals are expected to be positive, supporting the PX price and PXN profit repair. Under the situation of strong supply and stable demand, there is pressure above the TA price, and the EG price may show an oscillating and downward trend [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed up 45 yuan per ton to 13,450 yuan per ton; the main NR contract closed down 55 yuan per ton to 11,810 yuan per ton; the main butadiene rubber contract BR closed down 270 yuan per ton to 10,875 yuan per ton. The fundamentals of rubber are weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. The price may continue to decline after breaking through the support level. The supply of butadiene rubber changes little in June, but the downstream and terminal automobile demand weakens significantly, and the price is under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,275 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1,862.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between $254 - 258 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between $318 - 323 per ton. Although there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, the increase in imports in June is expected to be small, and the demand change is not significant. Therefore, the inventory increase may be limited, and the price has support [4]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China wire - drawing PP was between 6,990 - 7,200 yuan per ton. The demand side changes little, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid demand. Refineries need to reduce prices to destock. In the off - season of demand, the market lacks obvious driving forces, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4][6]. - **Polyvinyl chloride**: On Tuesday, the price in the East China PVC market was weakly adjusted. The market is expected to maintain low - level oscillation in June, with the basis and inter - month spread gradually strengthening [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on June 4, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - Wildfires in Alberta, Canada, have led to the shutdown of nearly 350,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil production, about 7% of the country's oil production. - Kazakhstan reaffirmed its willingness to cooperate closely with OPEC and countries participating in coordinated production cuts to ensure the stability of the oil market [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14][15][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spread charts between different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the cash - flow and profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production, PP production, and LLDPE production [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [77][78][79]

油价"过山车"，伊朗核协议僵局、加拿大野火以及OPEC+增产三方因素，油价波动中谁将主导市场？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the factors influencing oil price volatility, including the downgrade of the US credit rating, stalled US-Iran negotiations, and the ongoing weakness of the US dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concerns about economic stability, which could impact investor confidence and market dynamics [1] - Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran are contributing to uncertainty in the oil market, affecting supply expectations and pricing [1] - The continuous weakening of the US dollar is influencing oil prices, as oil is typically traded in dollars, making it more expensive for foreign buyers [1]

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 e_ReportType] 行业评级 ——看好 上次评级——看好 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 胡晓艺 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524070003 邮箱：huxiaoyi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 原油周报：中美关税谈判落地，油价震荡上行 [Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 5 月 18 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 【油价回顾】截至 2025年 5月 16 日当周，油价震荡上涨。本周，中 美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，双方大幅下调关税，贸易争端紧张 局势缓和，提振市场风险偏好。但美伊核谈判等地缘因素反复（特朗 普称美伊就核协议达成某种共 ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：关税政策缓和，国际油价上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 4 1. 原油周度数据简报 2. 本周石油石化板块行情回顾 3. 原油板块数据追踪 4. 成品油板块数据追踪 5. 油服板块数据追踪 6. 风险提示 目录 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.5/62.6美元/桶，较上周分别+3.5/+3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比+398/+ 345/+53/-107万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周473台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周193部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油 ...

期货热点追踪 贸易紧张局势缓解，油价为何不涨反跌？市场究竟在交易什么？ 相关链接 ...