Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant divide among its officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for no rate cuts while others support two cuts by the end of the year, indicating high uncertainty in policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Outlook - The dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows a split among 19 participants: 7 expect no rate cuts, 8 anticipate two cuts, and a few support one or three cuts [1][3]. - Barclays analysts predict only one 25 basis point cut in December 2023, with three cuts expected in 2026, bringing rates to a range of 3.25%-3.50% [2][5]. - The internal division stems from differing concerns: those favoring no cuts are worried about inflation risks, while those supporting cuts are focused on potential increases in unemployment and slowing economic growth [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Projections and Inflation - The latest economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts, with 2025's real GDP growth expected at 1.4%, down from 1.7% [7][8]. - PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 3.0% for 2025, with core PCE inflation at 3.1%, reflecting concerns over rising inflation risks [8][9]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8]. Group 3: Tariff Impact and Policy Caution - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting that high tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [6][9]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for caution, stating that the current policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to address various risks and uncertainties [10][11]. - Powell's remarks indicate a shift from viewing tariff impacts as temporary to recognizing their potential long-term effects on inflation and economic activity [11].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong and A-share markets experienced a significant decline, with the ChiNext Index and Shenzhen Component Index leading the drop, indicating pressure on growth sectors [1] - Despite the overall market downturn, sector ETFs related to oil and gas resources and energy chemicals showed strong performance, reflecting continued investor preference for high dividend yields [1] ETF Performance - The Invesco S&P Consumer ETF surged by 10.03% with a premium of 32.48%, while the Guotai S&P 500 ETF rose by 5.37% with a premium of 19.64% [3] - Other ETFs such as the Saudi ETF and various sector-specific ETFs showed mixed performance, with some experiencing slight declines [3] Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Middle East conflict is considered a contributing factor to the market's decline, with reports of U.S. officials preparing for potential strikes on Iran [5] - The evacuation of over 1,600 Chinese citizens from Iran and hundreds from Israel highlights the geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [5] U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current monetary policy stance, with inflation concerns potentially delaying interest rate cuts [6] - The market anticipates that recovery trades may not materialize until later in the year, contingent on tax reform and debt ceiling developments [6] QDII Investment Opportunities - The People's Bank of China announced plans to increase the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor (QDII) investment quotas, addressing the high demand for overseas asset investments [7] - As of May 2024, the total approved QDII quota reached approximately $167.79 billion, with significant increases in quotas for various public fund companies [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will drive up oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a risk premium of $10 per barrel [2] - Fitch Ratings highlights that the fiscal outlook for the United States remains challenging [2] - Mitsubishi UFJ warns that if the U.S. intervenes in the Israel-Palestine conflict, the dollar may decline [2] Group 2 - CICC believes that the Federal Reserve will not act hastily in the face of inflation [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates no more than twice this year [2] - CITIC Securities anticipates that L3 will become the main upgrade direction for autonomous driving from Q4 2025 to 2026 [2] - China Merchants Macro notes that the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts [2] - Huaxi Securities observes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure on profit-taking [2] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard data in the U.S. will decline in the second half of the year, with "stag" becoming a trigger for a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Rehn warns that the ongoing Middle East crisis poses a risk of stagflation for the Eurozone [1] Group 1 - The Eurozone may face stagflation if the Middle East crisis continues [1]

智通财经6月19日电，欧洲央行管委雷恩表示，若中东危机持续，欧元区将面临滞胀冲击。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change, reflecting the fragile state of the U.S. economy amid conflicting pressures [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The removal of the phrase "risks of inflation and unemployment are rising" indicates a shift in the Fed's assessment of economic risks from "broad vigilance" to "structural caution" [2]. - The OECD has significantly downgraded the U.S. economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.2% to 1.6% and raised the inflation forecast to 3.2%, highlighting a typical sign of stagflation risk [2]. - The Fed's latest economic projections show an increase in core inflation expectations for 2025 from 2.8% to 3.1%, while GDP growth expectations have been reduced from 1.7% to 1.4% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - U.S. tariff policies are a major variable affecting economic and policy outlook, with the Fed remaining highly vigilant about the impact of trade conditions on inflation [3]. - Increased tariffs are expected to raise import prices, exacerbating inflation in the short term while suppressing demand, with long-term effects dependent on various complex factors [3]. - The Fed's cautious stance reflects both prudence and a sense of helplessness in the face of trade protectionism, policy uncertainty, and unexpectedly resilient inflation, leading to rising living costs and job market instability for Americans [3].

宏观动态报告 -- 6 月 FOMC 会议 2024 年 6 月 19 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 于金潼 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测进一步确立"滞胀"担忧,点阵图边际鹰流但无需过多解读,硬数据变动仍将主 ● 导美联储未来的态度,而关税和财政是影响硬数据的核心变量: 6 月将 2025 和 2026 年的 经济增长预期从 1.7%和 1.8%下调至 1.4%和 1.6%,低于经济潜在增速。2025-2027 年 的失业率被小幅全线上调,分别为 4.5%、4.5%和 4.4%,略高于自然失业率水平并支持 进一步的降息。PCE 通胀也被上调,2025年名义和核心通胀分别从 2.7%和 2.8%进一步 上调至 3.0%和 3.1%,而 2026 年均为 2.4%,即通胀抬升基本为一次性。最后,联邦基 金利率预测路径显示 2025 年美联储暂时维持降息 2 次，2026 年降息从 2 次下调 ...

【白银期货行情表现】 6月19日，沪银主力暂报8915元/克，跌幅达0.85%，今日沪银主力开盘价9012元/克，截至目前最高9025 元/克，最低8885元/克。 【宏观消息】 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊发表讲话强调，伊朗绝不接受任何"强加的和平或战争"。绝不会对领土上遭受的 任何袭击"视而不见"，伊朗军队已经做好了充分的准备。以方犯下严重错误，将会受到"惩罚"。哈梅内 伊还表示，伊朗民族不会投降，任何"美国军事干预无疑都会带来无法弥补的损失"。 美联储6月议息会议：连续第四次维持利率不变，点阵图显示今年降息两次，但预计今年不降息的官员 人数升至7位，明年的降息预期被削减至1次。鲍威尔继续高呼不确定性，目前的经济情况适合观望。他 还预计未来几个月会有关税驱动的通胀上升。"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos发文称，美联储此次维持利 率不变，为今年下半年降息留下了可能性。为了恢复去年开始的降息，美联储官员可能需要看到劳动力 市场走软，或者有更有力的证据表明，关税导致的价格上涨将相对温和。 美国至6月14日当周初请失业金人数24.5万人，预期24.5万人，前值由24.8万人修正为25万人。 【机构观点】 银河期货 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储周三维持利率不变，政策制定者暗示今年仍可能降息，但鉴于特朗普政府关 税计划预计推高通胀，放缓了未来降息的整体节奏。在最新经济预测中，官员勾勒出美国经济温和滞胀 的图景：今年经济增长放缓至1.4%，年底失业率升至4.5%，2025年通胀率收于3%，远高于当前水平。 点阵图显示委员会内部显现分歧，市场分析师也众说纷纭。 尽管政策制定者仍预计今年降息50个基点(与3月和12月预测一致)，但在将通胀拉回2%目标的持久战 中，他们略微放缓了节奏——预计2026年和2027年各降息25个基点。 市场反应方面，股市上标普500指数(.SPX)短暂扩大涨幅后回落，最终上涨0.03%;债市上，10年期美债 收益率收窄跌幅，下行1.2个基点至4.379%;2年期美债收益率下行1.9个基点至3.914%;汇市上，美元指数 先抑后扬，截至发稿，上涨0.21%至99.07，欧元兑美元下跌0.25%至1.1454。 针对此次动态，分析师也纷纷发表了观点： SahakManuelian，Wedbush Securities全球股票交易董事总经理 "政策声明与此前释放的信号一致。通胀仍处高位，但未来数月关税影响将成 ...

2025 年 06 月 19 日 6 月 FOMC:滞胀预期加强，降息仍需等待 分析师：杨芹芹 S1050523040001 yangqq@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：孙航 S1050525050001 sunhang@cfsc.com.cn 最近一年大盘表现 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《4 月政治局会议重在维稳，加 紧实施存量政策，增量还需等待》 2025-04-25 2、《8 月 FOMC：降息进程开启，最 快九月》2024-08-01 3、《三中全会公报的六大看点》 2024-07-19 事件 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨，美联储公布了 6 月议息会 议结果，维持 4.25%-4.5%利率不变，同时下修 2025 年 GDP 预期，上修通胀和失业率预期。 投资要点 ▌ 经济：滞胀预期加强 联储在 6 月上修了 2025 年和 2026 年的失业率和 PCE 的预 测，同时下修了经济预期。其中名义 PCE 和核心 PCE 均回升 至 3%以上，当前美国核心 PCE 同比 2.52%，名义 P ...