Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment analysis and suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. Each variety has different trends and suggestions, such as PX and PTA with a weak unilateral trend and positive spreads for month - to - month spreads; MEG with low inventory and positive spreads for month - to - month spreads at low prices [2][8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Overview**: PX supply is still tight, and the market focuses on the production progress of Sanfangxiang. PTA supply increases while demand decreases, and the polyester start - up rate decreases. MEG supply increases and demand decreases, but inventory is low, and imports are expected to decline in July - August [6][7][8]. - **View and Suggestion**: For PX, do not chase short on the single - side, and do positive spreads for month - to - month spreads. Pay attention to the compression position of forward PXN. For PTA, do not chase short on the single - side, and do positive spreads for month - to - month spreads. Long PX short PTA and long PR short PTA on the 01 contract. For MEG, it is a strong - side volatile market on the single - side, and do positive spreads for month - to - month spreads [8][9]. Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of rubber fluctuates, and the trading volume and open interest decrease. The spot price of some varieties is stable, and the price of some substitutes decreases [11]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased, driving the supporting market of all - steel tires. However, in the second half of the year, risks such as trade barriers and demand slowdown need to be concerned [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of synthetic rubber slightly corrects, and the trading volume, open interest, and turnover decrease. The spot price of various varieties decreases, and the start - up rate and theoretical cost remain unchanged [15]. - **Industry News**: The static valuation range of the futures of butadiene rubber is 11000 - 11800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it mainly fluctuates in the range, and the upside space is narrowed [15][17]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of asphalt fluctuates in the range, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts decrease. The spot price of some regions changes, the refinery start - up rate decreases, and the inventory rate decreases [19]. - **Market News**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises increases slightly, the maintenance volume of asphalt devices decreases, and the shipment volume of some enterprises increases [29]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of LLDPE fluctuates weakly, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of some regions decreases [30]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The fundamentals of polyethylene do not improve significantly. The supply pressure increases, and the demand support is weak. The downstream is in the off - season, and the terminal orders are weak [31]. PP - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of PP decreases slightly, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of the domestic market decreases slightly [34][35]. - **Spot News**: The futures price of PP suppresses the trading atmosphere, the factory price of some production enterprises decreases, and the market trading is weak [35]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of caustic soda rebounds, and the basis is positive. The spot price of Shandong is stable [37]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The supply pressure of caustic soda is still large, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The rebound is difficult to sustain, and the market may short the profit of caustic soda again [38]. Pulp - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of pulp fluctuates, and the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt quantity decrease. The basis and month - to - month spread change [43]. - **Industry News**: The pulp price is weak, the port inventory is at a high level, and the demand is weak. The market of kraft paper and white cardboard is not good [44][46]. Glass - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of glass is stable, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of some regions increases slightly [48]. - **Spot News**: The price of float glass is stable with a slight increase, and the sales of some regions slow down after the price increase [48]. Methanol - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of methanol fluctuates, and the trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt quantity change. The spot price of some regions decreases [50]. - **Spot News**: The spot price index of methanol decreases, and the market in the northwest region fluctuates within the range. The supply and demand of methanol both decline in the short term, and it is expected to show a volatile pattern [52]. Urea - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of urea fluctuates, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price of some factories decreases [54]. - **Industry News**: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreases, the domestic demand is weak, and the export supports. The market fluctuates in the short term [55][56]. Styrene - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of styrene fluctuates weakly, and the profit and month - to - month spread change [57]. - **Spot News**: Pure benzene supply and demand increase, styrene supply increases and demand decreases, and the profit is compressed. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly short - allocated [58]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of soda ash decreases slightly, and the basis and month - to - month spread change. The spot price is stable [59]. - **Spot News**: The domestic soda ash market fluctuates steadily, the supply remains high, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to be weakly stable and volatile in the short term [59]. LPG - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of LPG fluctuates, and the trading volume, open interest, and spread change. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation change [61]. - **Market News**: The expected price of Saudi CP decreases, and there are many PDH device maintenance plans in the country. The cost support is effective, and there may be a short - term rebound [67][68]. PVC - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of PVC fluctuates weakly, and the basis and month - to - month spread are negative. The spot market trading is dull [69]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The supply reduction drive of PVC is insufficient, the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to relieve, and the market may short the profit of chlor - alkali [70]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of fuel oil fluctuates weakly at night, and the short - term may be temporarily stable. The low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the outer - market spot decreases slightly [74]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in various regions change slightly [74]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) increases, and the trading volume, open interest, and spread change. The freight index of European and American routes changes [76]. - **Market News**: In August, Maersk adds 2 additional ships [79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the supply - demand weakness of LLDPE persists, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7160 and the pressure around 7290 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the 1 - month contract is 7225 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 5 - month contract is 7200 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - month contract is 7214 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The trading volume is 204,281 lots, down 103,204 lots, and the open interest is 436,856 lots, up 2,991 lots. The spread between the 1 - month and 5 - month contracts is 25 yuan, unchanged. The long position of the top 20 futures holders is 358,600 lots, up 515 lots; the short position is 402,176 lots, down 5,715 lots; the net long position is - 43,576 lots, up 6,230 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7206.09 yuan/ton, down 23.91 yuan; in East China is 7319.02 yuan/ton, down 13.17 yuan. The basis is - 7.91 yuan, down 16.91 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 62.88 US dollars/barrel, down 1.48 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 583.75 US dollars/ton, down 13.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37 percentage points; the operating rate of PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; the operating rate of PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 11.71%, down 1.17 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 12.54%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.01%, down 1 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 12.02%, down 0.98 percentage points [2] Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene output was 605,900 tons, a 2.10% decrease from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a 1.67 - percentage - point decrease. The average operating rate of polyethylene downstream products decreased by 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 16th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 529,300 tons, a 7.34% increase; as of July 11th, the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, a 3.68% increase [2] Outlook - In July, there are many PE maintenance devices. This week, the devices of Sinopec Hubei and Jilin Petrochemical are shut down for maintenance, and the device of Shanghai Petrochemical is planned to restart. It is expected that the output and capacity utilization rate will decline. New devices of ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into production this month, which may increase the industry supply pressure in the long - term. The downstream off - season continues, the terminal stocking willingness is low, and the downstream operating rate is expected to maintain a narrow downward trend. Recently, international oil prices have fallen. Overall, the short - term supply - demand weakness of LLDPE continues [2]

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply tends to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and the price is expected to be bearish after a rebound, with attention paid to the pressure around 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.56 cents/pound, up 1.85%. The main contract open interest increased by 4.46% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the Kunming spot price is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%; the Kunming basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 26.67% [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year-on-year; the national cumulative sugar sales is 811.38 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [1]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly within a stable range, but will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract open interest increased by 0.80% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index: 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 33.3% month - on - month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited and it is still under pressure at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The in - lay hen inventory remains high, but the egg production rate and egg weight have declined due to high temperatures. The demand is expected to increase [8]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The palm oil price may fall and adjust; the soybean oil price will maintain high production, and the spot basis quotation is under pressure [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - class soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic palm oil inventory and soybean oil inventory situation are given, and the influence of production and inventory on prices is analyzed [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The meal market is under pressure, the domestic soybean and meal inventory is rising, and the meal price is currently in the process of bottom - grinding [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The US soybean production, export, and inventory are affected by weather and tariffs. The domestic soybean and meal inventory and supply and demand situation are also analyzed [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term corn market sentiment is weak, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The main contract open interest increased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price remains unchanged; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430 yuan/ton, down 0.41% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The import corn auction situation, downstream demand, and substitution situation are analyzed [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price is under pressure in the short term, but there is no basis for a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 on the 09 contract [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract is 13645 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the price of the 2509 contract is 14345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The main contract open interest decreased by 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The pig spot price fluctuates, with prices in various regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, the market demand is weak, and the production capacity expansion is cautious [17][18].

塑料产业日报 2025-07-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -7 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7288 | 10 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7258 | 16 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -7 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 307887 | 33828 持仓量(日,手) | 421336 | -11185 | | | 1月-5月合约价差 | 30 | -6 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 352132 | 639 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 390464 | -1586 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | -38332 | 2225 | | 现货市场 | LLDPE(7042)均价:华北(日,元/吨) | 7260 | -9.57 LLDPE(7042)均价:华东(日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the polyolefin market experienced slight fluctuations, with LLDPE and PP futures showing minor declines of 0.23% and 0.31% respectively, while the pure benzene market saw an increase of 4.80% [1] - LLDPE main contract closed at 7291 yuan/ton and PP main contract at 7069 yuan/ton, with the current spot prices for LLDPE ranging from 7170 to 7650 yuan/ton and PP prices between 7020 to 7220 yuan/ton across different regions [1] - Supply pressures eased slightly due to concentrated maintenance of production facilities, with PE and PP operating rates at 74.68% and 77.42% respectively as of July 10 [1] Group 2 - The article notes that the demand for polyolefins is currently weak due to seasonal factors, with various industries showing stable or declining operating rates [1] - As of July 10, the inventory levels for PE and PP were reported at 15.692 million tons and 5.604 million tons respectively, indicating a slight increase in trade inventory [1] - The cost side is influenced by OPEC+ production plans, which have led to a slight rebound in oil prices, providing some support to the market despite the overall supply-demand balance being loose [1] Group 3 - Pure benzene futures rose to 6183 yuan/ton, while styrene showed a slight increase to 7416 yuan/ton, with spot prices for pure benzene in East China at 5960 yuan/ton [1] - The operating rate for pure benzene was reported at 77.77%, with downstream weighted operating load at 80.73%, indicating a slight increase in production [1] - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene showed a decrease and increase respectively, with pure benzene port inventory at 15.9 million tons and styrene at 12.8 million tons as of July 9 [1]

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply is tending to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The market demand is weak, but the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi. Considering the increase in imports later, the domestic supply and demand are marginally loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view after the rebound and pay attention to the pressure at 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of white sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of white sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The main contract holding volume increased by 4.46%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.83% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the spot price in Kunming is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis increased by 2.04%, and the Kunming basis increased by 26.67% [1]. - **Industrial Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production increased by 12.03% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales increased by 23.07% year-on-year. The industrial inventory in Guangxi decreased by 12.23% year-on-year, and the industrial inventory in Yunnan increased by 0.29% year-on-year [1][3]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The contradiction of tight commercial cotton inventory in the 2024/25 season is difficult to solve before the new cotton is listed, which still strongly supports the cotton price. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly in a stable range, and will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed in the long term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract holding volume increased by 0.80%, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 0.32% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index of 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The 3128B - 01 contract basis increased by 5.19%, and the 3128B - 05 contract basis increased by 5.71% [4]. - **Industrial Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month-on-month, the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month-on-month, the import volume decreased by 33.3% month-on-month, and the bonded area inventory decreased by 8.9% month-on-month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The inventory of laying hens remains high, and the egg supply is sufficient. However, due to the high temperature, the egg weight and laying rate have declined, and the supply of large eggs is tight. The egg price has dropped to a phased low, and the demand is expected to increase. It is expected that the egg price may rise this week, but the increase may be limited [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12%. The 9 - 8 spread increased by 4.55% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg production area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39%. The basis increased by 3.95% [7]. - **Industrial Situation**: The price of day-old chicks remained unchanged, the price of culled hens decreased by 2.13%, the egg - feed ratio decreased by 4.37%, and the breeding profit decreased by 20.60% [7]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View For palm oil, due to concerns about seasonal production growth, the futures price may face resistance and fall back. For soybean oil, the speculation on the US biodiesel theme has ended, and the market is affected by both positive and negative factors, showing a narrow - range shock adjustment [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51%; the price of 01509 is 9439, down 0.31% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50%; the price of Jiangsu fourth - grade rapeseed oil is 9610, up 0.31% [10]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the inventory of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The weather in the US soybean producing areas is good, and the market is worried about the impact of US tariffs. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the开机 rate is improving. The soybean meal basis is stable, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84%; the price of the soybean No. 1 main contract is 4101, down 0.10%; the price of the soybean No. 2 main contract is 3610, up 0.61% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80%; the price of Harbin soybeans is 3960, unchanged; the price of Jiangsu imported soybeans is 3660, unchanged [11]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import profit of Brazilian soybeans in September increased, and the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in November decreased [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the market sentiment is weak, but as the remaining grain decreases, the downward space for the corn price is limited. In the medium term, the tight supply and increasing consumption support the corn price. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306, down 0.60%; the price of corn starch 2509 is 2656, down 0.78% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Pingcang price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430, down 0.41%, the Changchun spot price of corn starch is 2700, unchanged, and the Weifang spot price is 2920, unchanged [13]. - **Industrial Situation**: The import corn auction continued, the downstream deep - processing entered the seasonal maintenance period, and the wheat substitution squeezed the corn demand [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current breeding profit has returned to a low level, and the market is cautious about capacity expansion. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract decreased by 14.74%, the price of pig 2511 is 13645, down 0.37%, the price of pig 2509 is 14345, down 0.21%, and the 9 - 11 spread increased by 2.94% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated, with prices in different regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industrial Situation**: The slaughter volume increased by 0.59%, the white - striped pork price remained unchanged, the price of piglets decreased by 3.20%, the price of sows remained unchanged, the slaughter weight increased by 0.31%, the self - breeding profit increased by 11.82%, and the purchased - pig breeding profit increased by 220.34% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market remains positive, but the upward momentum is slowing, and there is uncertainty in overseas trade. The prices of various non - ferrous metals are expected to show different trends based on their respective supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][4]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated weakly. LME copper fell 1.92% to $9,663/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,320 yuan/ton. Total inventories in three major exchanges increased by 22,000 tons. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting August 1st, which may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, putting pressure on the latter. With the raw material shortage situation weakening and the current off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for SHFE copper this week is 76,800 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,400 - 9,800/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices first declined and then rose last week. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%, and LME aluminum rose 0.17% to $2,602/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, while bonded area inventories increased. Aluminum rod inventories increased, and processing fees were low. With the domestic commodity atmosphere positive but slowing, and the downstream in the off - season, aluminum ingots are expected to accumulate inventory, and aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic main contracts is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,530 - 2,650/ton [4]. Lead - Last Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.85% to 17,092 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2,027.5/ton. The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and social and enterprise inventories are accumulating. With the approaching peak season, downstream demand is improving. Due to the high concentration of long - positions in the LME lead July contract, lead prices are showing a relatively strong trend, but the increase in SHFE lead may be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index rose 0.03% to 22,355 yuan/ton last Friday, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,777/ton. Domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. In the short - term, due to the dovish atmosphere of the Fed and the positive sentiment in the market, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. The current domestic social inventory is 90,300 tons [6]. Tin - Tin prices fell after high - level fluctuations last week. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is ongoing, but the actual output is yet to come. The shortage of raw materials for smelters persists, and downstream demand is weak. With the supply and demand in short - term balance and the increasing expectation of Myanmar's resumption, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range for domestic tin prices is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 34,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated last week. The main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. Due to weak stainless steel demand, the profit of ferro - nickel production is compressed, and the price of nickel ore has weakened. In July, the surplus pressure of ferro - nickel has slightly eased, but the downstream demand for stainless steel is still weak. Nickel prices are expected to be affected by the price difference between nickel and ferro - nickel, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,000/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The spot index of lithium carbonate was flat on Friday, up 1.22% for the week. The price of lithium concentrate imported from Australia increased. The supply - demand relationship of lithium carbonate has not changed significantly, with downstream in the off - season and supply at a high level. Without macro - level positive factors, the upward space of lithium prices is limited. The operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 63,040 - 65,200 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On July 11, the alumina index fell 2.7% to 3,100 yuan/ton. Spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed. With the expectation of stronger ore prices in the medium - term and the positive sentiment in the commodity market, the futures price may be strong in the short - term, but the over - capacity situation remains. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,710 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.20%. Spot prices in some markets were flat. It is currently the off - season for stainless steel consumption, and the supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The futures price of cast aluminum alloy first declined and then rose last week. The AD2511 contract rose 0.23% to 19,930 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased, and the production profit of enterprises improved slightly. The overall supply and demand are weak in the off - season. Considering the slowdown of aluminum price increase and the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward resistance of cast aluminum alloy prices is large [17][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a slight decline in lithium carbonate futures prices, with the main contract closing at 64,180 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous settlement price [1] - On July 10, 2025, the trading volume for lithium carbonate futures was 398,022 contracts, with an open interest of 323,683 contracts, reflecting a decrease of 3,212 contracts from the previous day [1] - The spot market for lithium carbonate showed a slight increase in prices, with battery-grade lithium carbonate quoted at 62,600 - 64,700 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade at 61,550 - 62,550 yuan/ton, both up by 350 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - Inventory levels increased by 2,446 tons to 140,800 tons, primarily due to rising stocks in other segments [1] - Weekly production rose by 609 tons to 18,800 tons, with increases in both spodumene and mica production [1] - The overall market sentiment remains strong despite a weak fundamental outlook, suggesting a strategy of selling high for hedging purposes [1]

| | ル期現日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年7月11日 | | | 王涛庭 | Z0019938 | | 田和 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8170 | 8170 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | Y2509 7944 | 7920 | 24 | 0.30% | | 县差 | Y2509 226 | 250 | -24 | -9.60% | | 现货墓差报价 | 江苏6月 09 + 210 | 09 +210 | 0 | - | | 仓单 | 22725 | 22826 | -101 | -0.44% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | 7月10日 | 7月9日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 8670 | 8700 | -30 | -0.34% | | 期价 | P2509 8638 | 8678 | -40 | -0.46% | | 墓差 | P2509 32 | 22 | ...

现货供应压力仍存，豆粕价格震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约2954元/吨，较前日变动+7元/吨，幅度+0.24%；菜粕2509合约2611元/吨，较前 日变动+25元/吨，幅度+0.97%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2860元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-94， 较前日变动+3；江苏地区豆粕现货2790元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M09-164，较前日变动+3；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2780元/吨，较前日变动跌+0元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动-7。福建地区菜粕现货价格2610 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM09-1，较前日变动-5。 近期市场资讯，特朗普近日在社交平台上表示，美国将自2025年8月1日起对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税， 对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克、利比亚及斯里兰卡的产品征收30%关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税、对巴西的产品征 收50%关税。 市场分析 整体来看，近月到港维持千万吨级以上，油厂大豆和豆粕库存增加较快，预计在新季美豆上市之前，国内大豆都 将维持宽松的供应格局。新季美豆方面，由 ...