期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of methanol is relatively abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase overall in the winter due to weak demand expectations. The port inventory continued to accumulate last week but is expected to decline from high levels in January due to expected import reduction. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week, but there is an expectation of an increase. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2190 - 2280 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 773,584 lots, an increase of 42,196 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 128,251 lots, a decrease of 21,279 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1857.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 312.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 257 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.64 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 104.71 tons, an increase of 3.98 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.03 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, a decrease of 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, a decrease of 4.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, a decrease of 3.49%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, an increase of 2.71%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, a decrease of 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.44%, a decrease of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.26 tons, a 4.61% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered was 18.30 tons, a 5.48% decrease. The total methanol port inventory in China was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons, with both East and South China ports accumulating inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 88.66%, a decrease of 0.02%. Recently, the domestic methanol production loss from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from recovery, leading to an overall increase in production [3]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,248 | -22↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1294526 | +26969↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 28,599 | +15719↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -23 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 132188 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 144 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -20.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,170.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 42.00 | + ...

光期研究 见微知著 煤化工策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 目 录 1、期货市场及产业链原料情况 2、尿素：1月供需双增预期，盘面坚挺运行 3、纯碱：基本面和外部因素博弈，期价坚挺运行 4、玻璃：1月供需两端继续博弈，盘面底部震荡 p 2 | 品 | 观 点 总 结 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 1、期货价格：12月尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，趋势先抑制后仰，截至12月31日收盘主力05合约报1749元/吨，月度涨幅0.4%。 | | | 2、现货价格：12月尿素现货价格偏强震荡，截至12月31日，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/吨、1700元/吨，二者均较11月底上涨40 | | | 元/吨。 | | | 3、供应：12月尿素供应整体低位波动，一方面行业处于气头企业负荷下降周期，另一方面月内检修、故障频率提升。截至12月31日，尿素 | | | 日产量19.48万吨，较11月底的20.34万吨下降4.23%。1月之后气头企业负荷或逐步回升，但需关注环保因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the newly released "Basic Rules for the Medium and Long-term Electricity Market" (referred to as "25 Rules") in the context of supporting high-quality development of renewable energy in China, especially in a spot market environment [3]. Group 1: Definition of Medium and Long-term - The term "medium and long-term" in the electricity market encompasses two dimensions: "far" and "long," where "far" refers to transactions conducted well in advance of electricity delivery, and "long" refers to transactions involving electricity over extended periods [4]. - The "25 Rules" clarify that medium and long-term trading involves electricity products or services for future periods, including various time dimensions such as years, months, and shorter intervals [4]. Group 2: Role of Medium and Long-term Market - The medium and long-term market plays a crucial role in stabilizing supply and demand relationships by allowing parties to lock in prices and revenues, thereby reducing risks associated with supply fluctuations and financial uncertainties [5]. - From a "long" perspective, the medium and long-term market facilitates trading across multiple time periods with different price levels, helping to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [5]. Group 3: Changes and Developments in New Rules - The inclusion of new types of market participants, such as energy storage and virtual power plants, enhances the market's risk management capabilities and supports innovative trading systems [8]. - The "25 Rules" provide clearer definitions of rights and obligations for market participants, detailing the information they must provide, such as power plant maintenance schedules and demand forecasts [8]. - The trading methods have been diversified to improve market liquidity, with requirements for regular and continuous trading sessions to address uncertainties arising from increased penetration of renewable energy [9]. - Green electricity trading has been incorporated into the new rules, promoting long-term green power transactions and establishing flexible contract adjustment mechanisms [9]. - The new rules emphasize market-driven pricing mechanisms and the need for coordination with spot market mechanisms, ensuring that prices reflect market conditions [10]. - The "25 Rules" aim to create a comprehensive, low-cost, transparent, and highly liquid medium and long-term market, essential for balancing supply and demand risks and price anomalies in the context of rapid renewable energy development [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggests a short - term equilibrium in the market trend and poor trading operability [1] - Alumina: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, implies a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading operability [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, shows a short - term balanced market trend and poor operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicates a bullish - leaning trend with limited trading opportunities [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly rated in a standard way [1] Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and policy, showing different trends. Some metals may continue to fluctuate, while others may face price adjustments or trend changes [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a negative candlestick in a volatile manner. The spot copper price was 98,820 yuan, with a Shanghai discount of 190 yuan. The LME market has a large number of in - the - money call options. After the holiday, wait for overseas institutions to revise their copper price expectations. Continue the previous options combination strategy, and pay attention to smelter production schedules, social inventory changes, and trading volume shrinkage, as the price may continue to decline [2] Aluminum and Alumina - The Shanghai aluminum futures rose, and the spot discounts in East, Central, and South China widened. The fundamentals of the aluminum market lack driving force, but the upward trend following the sector remains. Long positions can be held based on the 40 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at 23,000 yuan. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by 100 yuan to 22,000 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The seasonal spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years. The alumina market is in significant surplus. With the decline in bauxite prices, costs have room to fall, and there is still profit in cash - cost accounting. In the short term, the decline of alumina spot prices is slowing down, but medium - term stabilization requires large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - The TC is at a low level, smelter maintenance continues, and the import window is closed. The supply pressure of zinc has weakened, and the overall rebound trend remains. The consumption outlook for January is moderately optimistic. With the start of the 14th Five - Year Plan, there are high expectations for a good start. National subsidies may return, and there is still demand for downstream pre - holiday stockpiling. Consumption may not be weak in the off - season, but production is still a drag, constraining the upside of Shanghai zinc. Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum (Another Section) - Maintenance of primary aluminum delivery brand smelters continues, and the SMM aluminum social inventory is less than 20,000 tons, supporting the price increase. However, battery enterprises conduct year - end inventory checks and suspend spot procurement for 3 - 7 days. Shanghai lead faces obvious pressure around 17,500 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is stronger in the domestic market than in the overseas market, and the spot import window is open. Affected by low - priced overseas aluminum ingots, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom near the cost, with a price range of 16,800 - 17,500 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose and then fell, with active market trading. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reduced the nickel ore quota and will revise the mineral reference price formula in early 2026. Near the end of the year, the downstream's purchasing intention weakened, and the continuous high spot premium reduced traders' willingness to hold goods. The spot trading was relatively quiet. In the stainless - steel market, the rising ferro - nickel price pushed up the cost, but the overall profit was restored. The previous stainless - steel production cuts had limited impact, the social inventory decreased, and the downstream's purchasing intention was mainly in the form of more inquiries. The high - nickel ferro - nickel was quoted at 912 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to show a rebound transmission. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 892,000 tons. Due to policy disturbances in the nickel market, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [7] Tin - The trading volume of Shanghai tin futures decreased to the level at the beginning of December. The spot tin was reported at 326,450 yuan, with a real - time premium of 1,800 yuan. There is no new news about the geopolitical situation recently. Pay attention to the mining conference that may be held around the New Year. The volatility has converged from a high level. Hold the 350,000 sell - call options again and observe the adjustment range [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price opened high and then fell, with active market trading but large differences. Some holders' previous goods have been pre - ordered, and there are frequent inquiries. However, the mid - and downstream's acceptance of high prices is limited. They have sufficient pre - holiday stockpiling and are cautious about high prices. The overall market trading is relatively quiet. The total market inventory decreased by 700 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,600 tons to 40,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 52,000 tons. The inventory in the mid - stream is relatively high, providing some support to the spot market. The latest Australian ore price is 1,565 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong. Technically, the lithium price has entered the trend - ending stage, and risk prevention should be noted [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. Recently, some silicon enterprises have reduced production, but the overall scale is less than expected. On the demand side, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month, and the operating rate of organic silicon is expected to continue to decline under the implementation of emission - reduction policies. The latest SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons month - on - month, and the Xinjiang factory inventory still has the pressure of inventory accumulation. Overall, the recent strengthening of the industrial silicon futures price and the divergence between the futures and spot prices are due to the expected large - scale production cuts at the end of December. However, the implementation is slow, and the demand is under marginal pressure. The trend may turn to oscillatory consolidation, and further observe the changes in Xinjiang's production [10] Polysilicon - The trading activity of polysilicon futures has declined. After a pre - holiday correction, it turned to oscillation. On the spot side, the price of N - type compound feedstock remains stable at 50,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the polysilicon production in January is expected to decrease slightly month - on - month. However, compared with the recent production cuts in the silicon wafer sector, the polysilicon market still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation. In the expected dimension, the industry's anti - involution trend continues, and policy support is sustainable. With stricter trading supervision, the futures price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [11]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 螺纹钢市场周报 现货成交清淡 螺纹期价区间波动 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月31日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3122（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。184.39（+2.71），同比（-31.91）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需202.68（-5.96），（同比-16.9）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存434.25（-18.29），（同比+34.51）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.23%，环比上周增加1.30个百分点，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示，F ...

Report Overview - Research Variety: Corn starch [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - The cs2603 contract of corn starch futures mainly showed a fluctuating upward trend on December 29, 2025. The closing price was 2,535 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,000 lots, an increase of 20,270 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 200,000 lots, an increase of 8,199 lots compared with the previous trading day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The total open interest of 6 contracts of corn starch futures was 263,701 lots, an increase of 909 lots compared with the previous trading day [4] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the spot quotes of corn starch in some domestic regions were as follows: Heilongjiang 2,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Liaoning 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin 2,620 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On December 29, the CIF price of imported US corn was 269 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The import cost was 2,178 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import cost after additional tariffs was 2,383 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] 4. Market Outlook - The 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages of the cs2603 contract of corn starch are showing a long - position arrangement. The grain sales progress in the Northeast corn - producing area this year is faster than the same period last year, and the grain quality is generally good. However, the willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain is average, and the downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the price of the cs2603 contract of corn starch will continue to fluctuate in the future [9]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by trading sentiment and upcoming adjustments in trading regulations [2][3][4]. Price and Trading Data - On December 30, 2025, the main lithium carbonate futures contract opened at 117,000 CNY/ton and closed at 121,580 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 3.77% from the previous settlement price [2][8]. - The trading volume for the day was 459,530 contracts, with an open interest of 511,309 contracts, slightly down from 512,345 contracts the previous day [2][8]. - The current basis is reported at -1,960 CNY/ton, indicating the difference between the spot price and futures price [2]. Spot Prices - According to SMM data, battery-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 114,000 and 122,000 CNY/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is priced between 112,000 and 118,000 CNY/ton, with no change from the previous day [3][9]. - The price of 6% lithium concentrate is reported at 1,550 USD/ton, down by 15 USD from the previous day [3][9]. Inventory Levels - Current spot inventory stands at 109,773 tons, a decrease of 652 tons from the previous period [4][10]. - Smelter inventory is at 17,851 tons, down by 239 tons, while downstream inventory is at 39,892 tons, down by 1,593 tons; other inventory has increased by 1,180 tons to 52,030 tons [4][10]. Market Sentiment and Strategy - The current price is primarily driven by market sentiment, with signs of excessive speculation present [5][11]. - Inventory depletion is slowing, leading to a divergence between spot and futures markets, and there is a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [5][11]. - The strategy suggests short-term range trading, focusing on consumption and inventory turning points, with recommendations to sell high for hedging purposes [5][11].

| と期現日报 | | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 Z0019938 2025年12月31日 王涛辉 | | 田和 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 8410 8390 20 0.24% | | 期价 Y2605 7878 7818 ୧୦ 0.77% | | 基差 Y2605 532 572 -40 -6.99% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05 + 520 05 + 520 0 - | | 仓单 28264 28264 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 12月30日 12月29日 涨跌幅 涨跌 | | 8590 100 现价 广东24度 8490 1.18% | | 期价 P2605 8658 8512 146 1.72% | | 星差 P2605 -68 -22 -46 -209.09% | | 现货墓差报价 广东5月 05 + 120 05 + 120 0 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港5月 9099.8 9051.2 48.6 0.54% | | 盘面进口利润 广州港5月 -442 -539 97 18.07% ...