Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall shipping derivatives market is showing a downward trend. The 08 contract on Friday saw a significant increase due to Maersk's and ONE's price hikes announcements for August, but the 10 contract declined on July 21st due to ONE's unchanged August price and CMA's price cut. The market dropped in the afternoon today as NSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current price, indicating a possible peak in freight rates [6]. - In the near future, the European line is characterized by stable reality and weak expectations. There may still be a rush to ship in July, and the spot price is expected to reach a rounded peak from late July to early August. After the deep - discount repair in the futures market, investors should avoid chasing high prices [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Shipping Derivatives Data - **Container Freight Index**: The China Export Container Freight Index and Shanghai Container Freight Index show different trends. For example, SCFI - West America decreased by 4.98%, SCFI - East America decreased by 0.78%, while SCFI - Northwest Europe increased by 2.76%. The SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87% and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [3]. - **EC Contracts**: Different EC contracts (EC2506, EC2508, etc.) also have different price changes. For instance, the EC2506 contract increased by 1.11%, while the EC2510 contract decreased by 1.84%. There are also changes in positions and monthly spreads [3][4]. Trade News - The US has reached a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on Indonesian - imported goods and exempting US goods from tariffs in the Indonesian market. The US plans to impose a 30% tariff on the EU next month, and the EU is negotiating and preparing counter - measures. India is in trade negotiations with the US, and the trade relationship between China and Europe is expected to enter a period of intense conflict [5]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月23日16时43分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.90%，沪银主力收涨1.16%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易战进入新阶段，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业通胀强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，特朗普升级贸易战，欧美贸易协议前景堪忧，欧盟 酝酿动用"核选项"反制美国。美中下周在瑞典重启贸易会谈。③货币属性方面，美国经济数据走弱，独栋房屋开工降至11个月 最低水平，建筑许可也大幅减少。6月核心CPI同比上涨2.9%，环比上涨0.2%，均低于市场预期。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至 9月，预期25年总降息空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率承压回落；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币 偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 二、白银 | | | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价 ...

Group 1 - Nokia has lowered its profit guidance for 2025 due to a weaker dollar and trade tariff issues, now expecting operating profit between €1.6 billion and €2.1 billion, down from a previous forecast of €1.9 billion to €2.4 billion [1] - The adjustment in guidance highlights the impact of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration, affecting supply chains and economic conditions across various industries, particularly for network equipment manufacturers like Nokia and Ericsson [1] - Nokia's stock price fell by 8.2% to €3.77 in Helsinki, marking the largest intraday drop since April 24, while its US shares dropped by 6.11% [1] Group 2 - The company anticipates a loss of approximately €230 million due to currency fluctuations, particularly the dollar exchange rate, and expects tariffs to reduce its annual operating profit by €50 million to €80 million [1] - For the second quarter, Nokia estimates net sales of about €4.55 billion, showing slight growth year-on-year but falling short of analyst expectations of €4.8 billion [2] - Citigroup analyst Andrew Gardiner noted that while market sentiment may be negatively affected, the primary reasons being currency and tariff risks may not be as severe as potential demand or profit issues [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/7/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 2239.700 | -36.4↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1537 | -42.90↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 | 702.70 | +1.00↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | 537.90 | -3.10↓ | | EC合约基差 | 160.80 | +10.00↑ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 11039 | -1354↓ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 2400.50 | -21.44↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） | 1,301.81 | 35.22↑ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） ...

订阅期货大宗商品趋势 +订阅 相关链接 金价触及五周高点！贸易战阴云下，避险或将继续助攻多头？订单流给出什么进场信号？顺姐正在实时 分析，点击观看 实时黄金订单流分析 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of the EU's response to US tariff policies, which has led to fluctuations in silver prices, with spot silver closing at $39.29 per ounce, up 0.94% on July 22 [1][2] - The latest data from the CFTC indicates that silver ETF holdings increased to 15,158.37 tons as of July 22, reflecting a rise of 152.58 tons from the previous day, suggesting a bullish sentiment in the market [1][2] - The EU is considering using its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI) against the US, which may involve retaliatory measures such as restricting US companies' access to the EU financial services market and public procurement projects [2][3] Group 2 - The ACI is designed to allow the EU to retaliate against third countries that attempt to coerce member states through economic means, potentially affecting a market worth €2 trillion annually [3] - The EU has prepared a set of tariff measures targeting $24.5 billion worth of US goods, with further evaluations on imposing additional measures on $72 billion worth of US exports due to failed negotiations [3] - Silver prices are showing strong bullish momentum, with potential targets of $39.50 and $40.00 if the price breaks above the annual high of $39.12, while key support levels are identified at $38.50 and $37.30 [4]

金十数据7月23日讯，悉尼InTouch资本市场外汇分析师Sean Callow表示，对日本而言，达成美日贸易协 议的最大利好在于特朗普转移贸易战火力。所谓5500亿美元投资更像是政治数字，短期对市场影响有 限。美日汇率仍将维持与日股的常规正相关性，目前可能会小幅走高。 分析师：美日贸易协议最大利好在于转移贸易战焦点 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Commodity Market Trends**: Affected by factors such as "anti - involution" policies, overall commodity sentiment is currently strong, but external factors like potential August trade war risks need attention. Different commodities show diverse trends due to their own supply - demand fundamentals [37][46][81]. - **Supply - Demand Dynamics**: In general, many commodities face supply - demand imbalances. Some have increasing supply pressure, while demand may be in the off - season or face challenges from various factors [37][46][81]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PX, PTA, MEG) - **PX**: Supply - demand remains tight. Domestic device operating rates are decreasing, and PTA operating rates are rising. It is recommended to take a long PX and short EB/EG position and conduct rolling long on the monthly spread [6][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend is strong. Due to increased downstream polyester procurement enthusiasm, it is advisable to take a long PTA and short PF position [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend turns strong, and a reverse spread operation for the 9 - 1 monthly spread is recommended. The increase in coal prices affects coal - chemical products [10]. 3.2 Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: Shows a volatile trend. Although futures prices have increased and trading volume has expanded, the tire industry is facing over - supply and price competition, and the overall market lacks strong upward momentum [11][12][15]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policy expectations, raw material price stability, and inventory reduction. However, in the medium - term, supply increases may limit price elasticity [18][20]. 3.3 Asphalt - It fluctuates repeatedly. Production has decreased, factory inventories have decreased, and social inventories have slightly increased. Market trends are mainly affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships [21][29][35]. 3.4 Polyolefins (LLDPE, PP) - **LLDPE**: Ranges within a certain interval. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand support is weak. Although inventory is currently low, it is gradually moving towards a state of inventory accumulation [36][37]. - **PP**: Spot prices fluctuate, and trading is light. Futures prices have a certain impact on the spot market, but downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [41][42]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Supply pressure will gradually increase, but export orders can offset some of the new production capacity. Demand is in the off - season, and although there is cost support, the price increase momentum is insufficient [44][46]. 3.6 Pulp - It fluctuates widely. The spot market is weak, with high port inventories and sluggish demand. The paper pulp market is affected by general commodity price increases, but the follow - up of the spot market is limited [49][51]. 3.7 Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Driven by the strong futures market, the price of the original sheet has increased slightly, and the delivery of futures merchants is relatively active [53][54]. 3.8 Methanol - It runs strongly. Supported by macro - policies and expectations of olefin external procurement, the market sentiment is positive. Although the traditional downstream demand has not improved significantly, the short - term market may maintain a stable and strong trend [56][59]. 3.9 Urea - The spot price stabilizes, and the upward space is narrowing. The short - term fundamentals have little impact on prices, mainly relying on policy - driven speculation. Supply has maintenance plans, and demand has export support, but domestic agricultural demand is coming to an end [61][63]. 3.10 Styrene - It is a short - position allocation under strong sentiment. Currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, it is recommended to focus on positions that compress styrene profits [64][65]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is stable with slight fluctuations, device operation is relatively stable, and downstream demand is flat [66]. 3.12 LPG - It shows a short - term weak and volatile trend. PDH and other industrial operating rates have increased, and price spreads have changed. Attention should be paid to device maintenance plans and international price expectations [68][70][77]. 3.13 PVC - The rebound is difficult to sustain. Although affected by policy expectations, the supply - demand contradiction in the spot market persists. High production and high inventory structures are difficult to change in the short - term [80][81]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Continues to decline, and the short - term weakness is difficult to change. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Shows a weak and volatile trend at night, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market rebounds slightly [83]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is recommended to hold short positions for the October contract and reverse spreads for the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 contracts. Freight rates show different trends, and attention should be paid to market supply - demand and shipping capacity changes [85].

Group 1 - Canada imposed significant tariffs and quotas on Chinese steel imports, including a 25% tariff, a 50% quota reduction, and a 50% penalty tax [1][4][9] - The U.S. steel imports account for 50% of Canada's steel imports and enjoy zero tariffs, while Chinese steel, which only accounts for 10%, is targeted for harsh penalties [11][24] - The Canadian government, facing a trade deficit of CAD 7.1 billion and a 15.7% drop in steel exports, is under pressure to find a scapegoat for its economic troubles [6][4][24] Group 2 - The Canadian government's digital services tax has negatively impacted U.S. tech giants, leading to a backlash from the U.S. and forcing Canada to navigate a delicate trade relationship [4][20] - The steel industry in Canada is struggling, with over 40,000 jobs at risk, prompting the government to shift blame to China rather than addressing U.S. trade policies [7][24] - The Canadian steel producers' association supports the government's actions against China, believing it will help regain market share [9][24] Group 3 - China's response to Canada's tariffs included imposing a 100% tariff on Canadian canola and halting large-scale imports, significantly impacting Canadian farmers [33][31] - Canada is heavily reliant on China for its canola exports, with 70% of its canola being sold to China, making the agricultural sector vulnerable to trade disputes [29][31] - The crisis in the canola industry has led to financial distress for farmers, with unsold products and plummeting prices [35][33] Group 4 - The trade tensions have resulted in a mixed impact on Canadian stock markets, with steel stocks rising while agricultural sectors face declines [54][52] - The Canadian government's approach to trade, particularly its targeting of China, is seen as shortsighted and detrimental to its own economic interests [51][56] - The overall economic landscape in Canada is shifting, with potential long-term consequences for both the steel and agricultural industries due to the ongoing trade disputes [58][56]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical struggle over energy security has intensified, particularly between the U.S. and China, with significant implications for global oil markets and trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: U.S. Actions and Responses - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has threatened to impose up to 100% secondary tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, which has caused significant volatility in global energy markets [3][6]. - Trump's ultimatum to Russia regarding oil imports aims to cut off funding for the ongoing conflict, with a deadline set for August 1 [1][6]. - The U.S. government's hardline stance has been met with skepticism, as analysts warn that such tariffs could lead to a new trade war and increase inflation in the U.S. [6][10]. Group 2: China's Position and Strategy - China has firmly stated its commitment to maintaining energy cooperation with Russia, with projected imports of Russian oil reaching $76.4 billion in 2024, accounting for 30% of its total oil imports [5]. - The Chinese government has drawn a clear line against unilateral sanctions and has emphasized the importance of national sovereignty in its energy dealings [5][10]. - China's energy strategy includes significant investments in Russian projects, such as the "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline and Arctic LNG projects, which rely on Chinese funding and technology [5][10]. Group 3: Global Energy Market Dynamics - The geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global energy landscape, with a shift towards a multipolar energy structure involving China, Russia, and Iran [10]. - Emerging market countries are increasingly resistant to U.S. sanctions, with nations like Turkey, Hungary, and Serbia continuing to import Russian oil [10]. - Analysts suggest that the U.S. strategy may backfire, as high oil prices resulting from sanctions could contradict political commitments to control inflation [6][10].