·中国人民银行与韩国央行续签双边本币互换协议 ·英国央行维持利率在4%不变 ·澳洲联储维持关键利率在3.6%不变 ·挪威央行将基准利率维持在4.00%不变 ·马来西亚央行将隔夜政策利率维持在2.75%不变 【全球央行动态】 ·中国人民银行与韩国央行续签双边本币互换协议，互换规模为4000亿元人民币／70万亿韩元，协议有 效期五年，经双方同意可以展期。 ·美联储官员发言一览： 美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，鉴于利率已降至更接近中性的水平，美联储在未来政策行动中应更加谨慎。 理事米兰再次公开呼吁进行更激进的降息，称美联储的政策过于紧缩，保持政策限制性的时间越长，经 济下行的风险就越大。米兰重申中性政策利率远低于当前水平，应该通过一系列50基点降息实现。 理事库克表示，每次美联储会议对货币政策而言都是实时的，货币政策并未设定固定路径；美联储的双 重使命面临的两方面风险均有所上升；当前政策适度具有限制性。12月有可能降息，但将取决于后续新 出炉的信息。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储可能很快需要通过购债来扩大资产负债表规模，以满足流动性需 求，但此举不代表货币政策立场的改变。 圣路易斯联储主席穆萨勒姆预计，货币政策处于适 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Wall Street banks have issued a clear warning about potential liquidity pressures in the U.S. money market, indicating that these issues may resurface [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Despite short-term financing rates stabilizing this week, liquidity tension signals in the financial system have raised widespread concerns among banks and policymakers [3] - Industry experts express cautious outlooks on future market trends, highlighting that current market volatility reflects deeper liquidity supply-demand imbalances [3] - The recovery in the market is largely dependent on banks utilizing Federal Reserve financing tools to alleviate short-term pressures, which is considered a temporary solution [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Policy Implications - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if recent increases in repo rates are not temporary but indicative of structural liquidity shortages, the Fed may need to initiate asset purchase programs to inject long-term liquidity [3] - Analysts suggest that the market environment has moved away from a state of ample reserves, indicating that similar rate volatility events may become the norm, necessitating the Fed to prepare various policy tools in advance [3] Group 3: Treasury Issuance and Liquidity Pressure - The combination of the Fed's quantitative tightening and record-high U.S. Treasury issuance has exacerbated liquidity pressures [4] - Large banks, as primary underwriters of government debt, are required to absorb portions of Treasury securities that investors fail to fully subscribe to, which consumes significant bank capital [4] - Current aggressive issuance of U.S. Treasury securities is nearing the demand limits of traditional investors, potentially exhausting their capacity to absorb new supply [4]

Group 1 - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials highlight the economic disparity in the U.S. and its implications for monetary policy [1][3] - Low- and middle-income households are facing significant payment pressures due to rising living costs and housing expenses, while high-income groups benefit from stock market gains [1][3] - The overall consumption growth is primarily driven by high-income households, raising questions about its sustainability [3][4] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of gradual cooling, but there is no significant deterioration, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [3][4] - Investment growth in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence is providing new support for the economy, partially offsetting weaknesses in traditional industries [3] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring liquidity conditions, with recent signs of funding pressure in the money market prompting a reassessment of the quantitative tightening timeline [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hawkish stance of the Fed's monetary policy has significantly pressured the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, pausing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and a long - position approach to gold and silver prices should be maintained as the Fed will end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st, providing a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the balance sheet [2]. - Structurally, the tight supply situation of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio is still significantly higher than the historical average. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On November 10, 2025, Shanghai gold rose 0.25% to 919.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.10% to 11,405.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 48.23 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.62 [2]. 3.2 Policy Analysis - In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish interest rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00% while taking a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. He believed that the December interest rate cut was not certain, and the pace of interest rate cuts could slow down if economic data continued to be missing due to a government shutdown. He also thought inflation was still high and had rebounded recently [2]. - 2026 FOMC voter and hawkish official Hamark emphasized inflation risks on November 6, believing that monetary policy might not be ready to handle the current inflation level, and the current economic environment was not conducive to further interest rate cuts [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said the neutral interest rate was difficult to estimate, with the model showing 1%, and emphasized the resilience of inflation [2]. - Powell announced that the Fed would end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st due to obvious pressure in the money market, and the real - world situation after the meeting confirmed his statement on liquidity, providing a reason for the subsequent balance sheet expansion [2]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - In the precious metals sector, the tight supply of overseas silver spot is difficult to resolve. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rise. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Statistics - Gold and silver price, trading volume, open interest, inventory, and other data on November 7, 2025, showed that most indicators had certain changes compared with the previous day, such as the closing price of COMEX gold active contract rising 0.58% to 4007.80 US dollars/ounce, and the trading volume rising 8.30% to 19.89 million lots [5]. - As of November 7, 2025, the internal - external price differences of gold and silver were calculated, including SHFE - COMEX and SGE - LBMA price differences [54].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For the stock index, the technology sector remains the market's main line. With policy support for the capital market unchanged, the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4] - For treasury bonds, the fourth - quarter bond market is affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. It is expected to oscillate and recover overall [6][7] - For precious metals, maintain a long - term bullish view on gold and silver prices. Recommend going long on silver on dips [9] - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are supported by supply tightness; aluminum prices may rise further due to supply concerns and improved export expectations; zinc prices are short - term strong but have limited upside in the surplus cycle [12][14][17] - For black building materials, steel demand is in the off - season, and the iron ore market is weak in the short term. Glass and soda ash are expected to oscillate steadily [35][37][39] - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber prices may rebound, and oil prices are recommended to be traded in a range [56][58] - For agricultural products, the hog market is bearish in the long - term, and egg prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [80][82] Summaries by Categories Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: In the past two months, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen nearly 120% from its low, and the price of NAND flash memory contracts has increased by 50% in November. The government has introduced policies to boost consumption [2] - **Strategy**: After the previous continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. In October, CPI rose 0.2% year - on - year, and foreign exchange reserves increased. The central bank conducted 1417 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 2134 billion yuan [5] - **Strategy**: The central bank's resumption of trading in treasury bonds is beneficial to the bond market sentiment in the short term. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the fourth quarter [6][7] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices rose slightly. The Fed's hawkish stance has put pressure on the expectation of interest rate cuts, but Powell's statement on the balance sheet provides a reason for its expansion [8] - **Strategy**: Recommend going long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are 880 - 966 yuan/gram and 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram respectively [9] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the copper price rose slightly and then fell. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly [11] - **Strategy**: The supply of refined copper is expected to tighten marginally, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are 85400 - 86600 yuan/ton and 10600 - 10850 dollars/ton respectively [12] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices continued to be strong. LME aluminum inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased [13] - **Strategy**: Supply concerns and improved export expectations may push aluminum prices higher. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are 21400 - 21700 yuan/ton and 2830 - 2890 dollars/ton respectively [14] Zinc - **Market Information**: The zinc price rose slightly. Zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly [15][16] - **Strategy**: The reduction in zinc smelting开工率 and partial zinc exports have tightened the spot market, but the upside of zinc prices is limited in the surplus cycle [17] Lead - **Market Information**: The lead price fell slightly. LME lead inventory decreased, and domestic social inventory increased slightly [18] - **Strategy**: The tight supply at the near end has pushed the lead price to run strongly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will oscillate strongly in the short term [18] Nickel - **Market Information**: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The inventory pressure of refined nickel is still significant, and the price of nickel iron is weak [19] - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended. If the nickel price drops enough, long positions can be gradually established. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton respectively [20][21] Tin - **Market Information**: The tin price rose slightly. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support [22] - **Strategy**: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating ranges for domestic and overseas tin are 270000 - 295000 yuan/ton and 35500 - 37500 dollars/ton respectively [23] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rose. The demand for power and energy - storage batteries is high, and the supply of mines is expected to be delayed [24] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate in a range in the short term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 80500 - 84500 yuan/ton [25] Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina price fell slightly. Overseas ore prices are expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term [26] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton [28] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The supply - demand imbalance in the market is still difficult to resolve, and the cost support is weakening [29] - **Strategy**: It is expected that the stainless steel market will continue to be weak in the short term [30] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The cost support is strong, but the demand is average [31] - **Strategy**: The short - term price may oscillate in a range [32] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. Rebar inventory continued to decline, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [34] - **Strategy**: Steel demand has entered the off - season. The inventory risk of hot - rolled coil still exists. Future demand may recover with policy implementation [35] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore price fell. Overseas shipments decreased, and port inventory increased [36] - **Strategy**: The demand for iron ore continues to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains. The short - term ore price is still weak, and attention should be paid to the support at 750 yuan/ton [37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass price rose slightly, and the soda ash price rose. The inventory of glass decreased, and the inventory of soda ash increased [38][39] - **Strategy**: The glass market may oscillate narrowly in the short term, and the soda ash market is expected to oscillate steadily [39][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased slightly. The market is affected by macro events, and the pricing has returned to fundamentals [41][43] - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and it may follow the black - sector market. The operability of ferrosilicon is low [44] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose, and the price of polysilicon fell. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to be under pressure, and the supply of polysilicon is expected to decrease [45][48] - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to consolidate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the platform company for polysilicon [47][49] Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price oscillated. The market risk preference may improve, and there are differences between long and short views [51][52] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips. A partial position can be established for the RU2601 - RU2609 spread [56] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude oil price rose slightly, and the prices of refined oil products fell. The gasoline inventory decreased, and the diesel inventory increased [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and wait for the verification of OPEC's export price - support intention [58] Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol price decreased. The supply pressure increased, and the demand weakened [59] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe. The current weak - reality pattern has not changed [60][61] Urea - **Market Information**: The urea price rose. The supply and demand are in a relatively loose pattern, and the fundamentals lack a driving force [62] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe. The price is at a low level, and the downside space is limited [62] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of pure benzene decreased, and the price of styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, and the demand for styrene is seasonal [63] - **Strategy**: The price of styrene may stop falling temporarily. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [64] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC price decreased. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The export expectation is poor [65] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term. The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse [66] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG price rose. The supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. The cost support is weak [67] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The inventory is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter [68] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA price decreased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure. The processing fee is under pressure [69] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of PTA strengthening driven by the increase in PXN in the medium term [70][71] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX price decreased. The load of PX is high, and the inventory is expected to increase slightly. The support comes from aromatics blending and the long - term supply - demand structure [72] - **Strategy**: It is expected to follow the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium term [73] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE price decreased. The inventory is at a high level, and the demand is expected to pick up seasonally [74] - **Strategy**: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level. The long - term contradiction has shifted to the South Korean ethylene clearance policy [75] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP price decreased. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound [76] - **Strategy**: The PP price is expected to be supported in the first quarter of next year when the supply - surplus pattern changes [77] Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Information**: The hog price was stable with partial increases. The supply is expected to be high before the Spring Festival [79] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short on rallies in the long term and conduct reverse spreads in the short term [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price fluctuated slightly. The supply is still large, but the demand is supported [81] - **Strategy**: The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Observe or conduct short - term trading, and short on rallies in the medium term [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The CBOT soybean price rose slightly. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the demand is expected to improve [83] - **Strategy**: The short - term price may rise, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The palm oil export increased, and the production increased. The domestic oil price oscillated weakly [85] - **Strategy**: The palm oil market is expected to be weak in the short term. Turn to a bullish view if the production decreases [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar export increased, and the global supply is expected to increase [87][88] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens [89] Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated. The demand is weak, and the new - cotton supply is large [90] - **Strategy**: The cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term [91]

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official warns that the increasing plight of the impoverished in the U.S. poses a recession risk for the world's most significant economy, highlighting the "balancing act" faced by Fed policymakers regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [2] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The New York Fed President Williams indicates that many low-income families are experiencing a crisis in payment ability due to high living costs and housing expenses, with evidence showing that these families are struggling to make ends meet [2] - Despite the overall resilience of the U.S. economy exceeding many economists' expectations, the pain felt by vulnerable households due to high living costs suggests that the economy may be deviating from a positive trajectory [2][3] - The current strong consumer spending is primarily driven by the highest income groups, which raises concerns about the economic outlook for middle and low-income families [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Williams describes the decision-making process for the December meeting as a "balancing act," with high inflation and signs of a cooling labor market influencing the Fed's stance on interest rates [3] - The Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points in the last two policy meetings, and while investors anticipated another cut next month, Powell stated that further cuts are not a "foregone conclusion" [3] - The Fed plans to end its quantitative tightening experiment on December 1, acknowledging recent funding pressures in the money market [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment - Optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and related investments has replaced previous pessimism regarding trade tensions, with Williams acknowledging the potential for AI to significantly enhance productivity growth [4] - Concerns about a potential investment bubble have emerged due to soaring stock prices, but Williams believes that as long as investments are not highly leveraged and primarily financed through equity, there is no cause for alarm [4]

Core Insights - A senior Federal Reserve official warns that the increasing plight of the impoverished in the U.S. poses a risk of recession for the world's most important economy, highlighting the "balancing act" faced by Fed policymakers when considering a potential rate cut in December [1][2] Economic Conditions - New York Fed President Williams indicates that many low- and middle-income families are struggling with affordability issues, including high living costs and housing expenses, while wealthier Americans benefit from a soaring stock market [1] - Despite the overall resilience of the U.S. economy exceeding many economists' expectations, the pain experienced by vulnerable households suggests a potential deviation from economic stability [1][2] Labor Market Dynamics - Fed officials, including Powell and Waller, are increasingly focused on how the labor market, described by Williams as lacking "strong momentum," affects the economic outlook for ordinary Americans [2] - Signs of a cooling labor market have led the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in the last two policy meetings, with investors anticipating another cut next month, although Powell stated that further cuts are not a "foregone conclusion" [2] Consumer Confidence and AI Impact - Confidence has rebounded significantly due to optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and related investment trends, which have replaced previous pessimism regarding trade tensions [3] - While AI-related investments are stimulating growth, concerns about potential market bubbles persist, with Williams expressing cautious optimism about the transformative potential of AI [3] Monetary Policy and Market Signals - The Fed announced the end of its quantitative tightening experiment starting December 1, acknowledging recent funding pressures in the money market [3] - Williams refuted calls for the Fed to shift its benchmark interest rate to better reflect repo market borrowing costs, emphasizing the continued use of the federal funds rate as the policy rate [3]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank's report indicates a "high possibility" of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates again in December, despite recent balanced communication from the Fed [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Fed is expected to face political pressure and initial employment market signals that may lead to another rate cut in December [1] - Following the rate cut in October, Fed officials have adopted a cautious stance, with hawkish views suggesting that substantial deterioration in the labor market and significant easing of inflation are necessary for further loosening [1][2] - DBS analysts believe the threshold for further easing is relatively low due to political realities and corporate layoffs [1] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening (QT) and Monetary Policy - The Fed has announced it will stop its quantitative tightening (QT) program on December 1, which has been in place for three years [1] - There is broad consensus among Fed officials regarding the end of QT, driven by the need for more bank reserves to maintain stability in the financial system [2] - DBS expects the Fed to continue reducing its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) while reinvesting the proceeds into U.S. Treasury securities [2] - If rising repo rates do not decline in the coming months, the Fed may begin asset purchases to prevent further declines in reserves, indicating a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver showed a trend of rising first and then falling this month, and are currently in a consolidation phase, but there is still strong support below. The Fed's hawkish stance on monetary policy has put significant pressure on the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, causing the previous strong performance of gold and silver prices to slow down. However, Powell's statement on the balance sheet is a key turning point, and the expansion of the Fed's balance sheet in the future provides a solid reason, which has a more significant driving effect on precious metal prices. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with the reference operating range of the main contract of Shanghai gold being 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and that of the main contract of Shanghai silver being 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: From October 9 to November 6, 2025, the main contract of COMEX gold fell 1.9% to $3,984.8 per ounce, reaching a record high of $4,398 per ounce during the session. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose slightly by 0.86% to 917.8 yuan/gram, reaching a record high of 1,001.96 yuan/gram during the session. The main contract of COMEX silver fell slightly by 1.25% to $47.845 per ounce, reaching a record high of $53.765 per ounce during the session. The main contract of Shanghai silver rose 2.03% to 11,427 yuan/kilogram, reaching a record high of 12,366 yuan/kilogram during the session [11][29]. - **Fed's Monetary Policy**: In the October FOMC meeting, Powell carried out a "hawkish rate cut", lowering the policy rate by 25bps to 3.75% - 4.00%, while expressing a hawkish stance on the subsequent interest rate path. The Fed's hawkish statements have put significant pressure on the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. However, Powell's statement on ending the balance sheet reduction on December 1st provides a solid reason for the subsequent expansion of the Fed's balance sheet, which is a strong driving force for the rise of gold and silver prices [11]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: The structural tightness of overseas silver spot cannot be completely resolved. China's photovoltaic silver demand is resilient, and India's silver imports are expected to rebound in the fourth quarter. The gold - silver ratio as of November 7 was 82.3, significantly higher than the historical average of 62 since 1971. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai gold index has turned out of the downward trend and is currently consolidating in the range of 900 - 930 yuan/gram. It is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and it is advisable to buy on dips at the lower edge of the range. The technical chart of Shanghai silver is significantly stronger than that of Shanghai gold, forming a relatively strong ascending triangle consolidation pattern after turning out of the downward trend. In the short term, it will still maintain a volatile trend [15][16]. 2. Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: COMEX gold and silver prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling this month. The total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 21.3% to 336,200 lots, and the total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 12.15% to 688,800 lots. As of the latest report period on September 23, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds increased by 1,578 lots to 160,500 lots, and the net long position of COMEX silver managed funds increased by 1,293 lots to 37,000 lots. Due to the US government shutdown, some data such as COMEX gold and silver CFTC total positions and managed funds' net positions have not been updated [29][32][35][37]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of November 5, the total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope were 2,309.6 tons, and the total holdings of overseas silver ETFs were 27,892.1 tons [40]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rate Indicators**: The report presents multiple interest rate - related charts, including the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury bonds, short - term US Treasury yields, the federal funds rate, overnight reverse repurchase rate, 10 - year nominal interest rate, real interest rate, and inflation expectations [49][52]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's balance sheet shows changes in various items. Due to the US government shutdown, the balance of the US Treasury's TGA account has risen significantly to $94.27 billion, and the deposit reserve balance has decreased to $2.85 trillion [54][57]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **Inflation Data**: In September, the year - on - year value of US CPI was 3%, lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 2.9%. The month - on - month value was 0.3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 0.4%. The year - on - year value of core CPI was 3%, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%, and the month - on - month value was 0.2%, lower than the previous value of 0.3% [62]. - **Employment Data**: Due to the US government shutdown, the latest weekly unemployment data in the US is missing [65]. - **PMI and PPI Data**: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.1; the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50 [68]. - **Housing Data**: In August, the annualized value of new home sales in the US was 800,000 units, significantly higher than the previous value of 664,000 units. The annualized value of building permits was 1.33 million units, and the annualized value of new housing starts was 1.307 million units [71]. 5. Precious Metals Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The report presents the charts of gold TD - SHFE basis, showing the changes in the basis over time [74][75]. - **Silver Basis**: The report presents the charts of silver TD - SHFE basis, showing the changes in the basis over time [77][78]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spreads**: The report presents the charts of domestic - foreign spreads of gold and silver, showing the changes in the spreads over time [81][83]. 6. Precious Metals Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report presents the inventory charts of silver in multiple markets, including the total inventory of Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of individual exchanges [88][90]. - **Gold Inventories**: The report presents the inventory charts of COMEX gold and LBMA gold [92].

Group 1: US Treasury and Labor Market - The US Treasury's financing strategy is expected to become more flexible and proactive, considering market structure factors, which may not lead to a significant rise in yields from refinancing announcements [1] - The US labor market showed weakness with over 150,000 layoffs in October, the largest since 2003, leading to market overreactions regarding labor market signals [2] - Analysts suggest that if expectations for significant Fed rate cuts persist, the 10-year US Treasury yield could drop to 3.8%-3.9% in the next three to six months [2] Group 2: UK and Eurozone Monetary Policy - Nomura Securities has adjusted its forecast for the Bank of England's rate cuts, now expecting the current cycle to end in April next year, with a potential cut in December [2] - Societe Generale's analysts believe that for German 10-year bond yields to exceed 3%, the European Central Bank would need to raise rates further and accumulate term premiums [3] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Barclays raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1%, attributing this to a recovery in the semiconductor industry and increased foreign investment [3] - The current account surplus forecast for South Korea was also increased from $8.4 billion to $11 billion for 2026 [3]