截至7月3日亚盘早市，现货黄金开盘报3357.52美元/盎司，随后在3340.00-3365.00美元区间窄幅震荡，最新报价3347.49美元/盎司，延续前三个交易日的上涨 趋势，形成三连阳格局。 7月2日公布的美国6月ADP就业数据意外减少3.3万人，为2023年3月以来首次负增长，远超市场预期的增加9.9万人。数据显示，服务业就业大幅下滑6.6万 人，其中专业和商业服务、教育医疗等关键领域裁员显著，仅商品生产行业因制造业支撑新增3.2万个岗位。这一数据强化了市场对美国劳动力市场走弱的 担忧，联邦基金期货显示，美联储7月降息概率从数据公布前的20%升至27.4%，9月降息预期更是高达75%。 | ■ 日期: 20250702 | | 美国ADP就业人数报告 ① | | 5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商品 | 日期 | 今值(万人) | 预测值(万人) | 前值 | | 美国ADP就业人数 | 2025年07月02日 | -3.3 | di d | | 核心逻辑： 经济放缓信号：ADP素有"小非农"之称，其疲软表现可能预示周五公布的6月非农就业数据同样承压。若非农 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the expected expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, continuous gold - buying by central banks globally, and persistent geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: On July 3, 2025, the closing price was 776.04 yuan/gram, with a change of 0.76 yuan compared to the previous day and - 0.06 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 202,457.00, and the open interest was 33,329.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Gold Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 770.33 yuan/gram, down 2.93 yuan. The trading volume was 29,774.00, and the open interest was 225,294.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 8,747.00 yuan/kg, down 63.00 yuan. The trading volume was 323,881.00, and the open interest was 249,023.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver Spot (T + D)**: The closing price was 8,737.00 yuan/kg, down 68.00 yuan. The trading volume was 521,320.00, and the open interest was 3,142,008.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,368.70 dollars/ounce, up 30.20 dollars. The trading volume was 129,510.00, and the open interest was 332,177.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.92 dollars/ounce, up 0.55 dollars. The trading volume was 39,724.00, and the open interest was 131,315.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,335.70 dollars/ounce, up 33.20 dollars [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 36.31 dollars/ounce, down 0.20 dollars [1]. Important Information - **US Situation**: The US House - passed "Great Beauty" bill plans to raise the debt ceiling to 5 trillion dollars and expand the fiscal deficit by over 3 trillion dollars. The ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, reducing the probability of the Fed not cutting interest rates in July, but the expected rate - cut time is still September/October/December [1]. - **Eurozone Situation**: The ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The manufacturing PMI in June continued to rise, and the CPI annual rate was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Situation**: The Bank of England cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points in May. The CPI annual rate in May was in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The manufacturing and service PMI in June were higher than expected. Due to the GDP decline in April, the expectation of an August rate cut is rising, with 2 - 3 rate cuts expected by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japan Situation**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January. It may reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. There is still an expectation of an interest - rate hike by the end of 2025 [1]. Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to mainly establish long positions on price pull - backs. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3,500 - 3,700 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, the support level is around 730 - 750 yuan/gram and the resistance level is around 840 - 900 yuan/gram. For London silver, the support level is around 31 - 34 dollars/ounce and the resistance level is around 38 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, the support level is around 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/kg and the resistance level is around 8,900 - 9,100 yuan/kg [1].

Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices have significantly rebounded due to expectations of an expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, driven by Trump's "big and beautiful" legislation [1] - The Senate has narrowly passed a tax and spending bill, which is expected to increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion to $3.3 trillion over the next decade, depending on the version [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve are also contributing factors to the rise in gold prices, with the dollar index hitting a three-year low of 96.37 [1][2] Group 2 - Market participants are divided on the outlook for interest rate cuts, with some believing that weak economic data and dovish Fed comments increase the likelihood of early cuts, while others point to a strong job market and inflation risks delaying cuts [2] - Ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks are expected to maintain gold's safe-haven appeal, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated as the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches [2] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data on July 15 will be crucial in assessing inflation trends and could influence market expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher if core CPI growth is weaker than expected [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks, monetary policy expectations, and economic data performance, leading to uncertainty in gold's market outlook [3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has led to a rapid decline in geopolitical risk premiums, reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Positive signals from tariff negotiations have increased market risk appetite, causing some funds to shift from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, which has pressured gold prices [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Expectations - The U.S. dollar index has seen a decline this week, yet gold prices have not benefited from this trend. Market pricing indicates a 20% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in July, rising to 75% in September [3]. - Despite high inflation data, the market maintains expectations for a loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, but this has not provided effective support for gold prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Data Performance - The unexpected weakness in the U.S. June ADP employment data, with a reduction of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, highlights concerns in the job market and strengthens bets on an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3]. - The market is closely watching the upcoming June non-farm payroll data, as its results will significantly impact gold price movements [3]. Group 4: Gold Price Outlook - The recent volatility in gold prices is characterized by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, with geopolitical risk easing, diverging monetary policy expectations, and mixed economic data contributing to uncertainty [4]. - In the short term, gold prices may remain volatile, with a focus on U.S. employment data and Federal Reserve policy direction. In the medium to long term, global economic uncertainty and central bank gold purchases may support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [4].

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank's analysts predict an upward trend in gold prices over the next 18 months, with silver and platinum expected to maintain their recent strength until 2026 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Outlook - Gold prices are projected to reach historical highs in the first half of 2025, following a 20% increase in 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty [1] - In the first half of 2025, gold prices are expected to rise nearly 25%, supported by strong demand amid high geopolitical risks [1] - By 2025, gold prices are anticipated to increase by approximately 35% year-on-year, remaining significantly above historical averages [1] Group 2: Silver Price Outlook - Silver is expected to maintain its strong momentum from 2024, with prices projected to rise nearly 20% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The demand for silver is expected to remain robust due to its dual role as an industrial input and a safe-haven asset [1][2] Group 3: Platinum Price Outlook - Platinum prices are forecasted to surge nearly 30% in the first half of 2025, driven by tightening supply conditions [2] - Despite a significant decline in demand from the automotive and industrial sectors, supply constraints are expected to support platinum prices, which are projected to rise by 10% in 2025 and 2% in 2026 [2] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The World Bank anticipates that gold prices could reach record annual average prices, supported by strong demand, while silver prices are also expected to rise further [3] - However, escalating global tensions could push gold prices higher than current forecasts, while weaker-than-expected industrial activity may suppress demand for silver and platinum [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility in the first half of 2025, reaching historical highs but facing multiple uncertainties that could impact the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Tariff Policy Impact - The direction of tariff policies remains a primary concern, with the potential for new market volatility as trade negotiations approach a critical deadline on July 9. Goldman Sachs estimates that even if some harsh tariffs are lifted, the actual tariff rate in the U.S. has risen from 3% at the beginning of the year to 13%, which may continue to increase inflationary pressures and erode corporate profits [2] - The upcoming Q2 earnings reports will be crucial, with S&P 500 companies expected to see a 5.9% growth in earnings, and investors will closely monitor how companies manage tariff-related costs [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is a significant market concern, with Chairman Powell indicating that inflation risks from tariffs are a key factor delaying interest rate cuts. However, the futures market anticipates three rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first potentially in September [3] - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report will be a critical indicator, as any signs of weakness in the labor market could alter rate cut expectations [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Technology Sector - The market is witnessing a shift in style, with technology stocks regaining dominance after an initial pullback. The S&P 500 technology sector led with a 15% increase in Q2, contributing nearly 40% of the index's gains. This concentration raises concerns, as the equal-weighted S&P 500 index only rose by 4%, indicating that most stocks did not keep pace with the leading companies [4] - For the market to maintain its upward trajectory, broader participation beyond the tech giants is necessary [4] Group 4: Valuation Pressures - Valuation pressures are significant, with the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 reaching 22.2, well above the long-term average of 15.8. Investors are focusing on 2026 earnings expectations, which predict a 14% growth for S&P constituents, as this growth rate will be crucial for supporting valuations [7] - The direction of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is also critical; if fiscal stimulus leads to concerns about deficits and yields spike, stock market valuations could face substantial pressure [7] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain a looming threat, with recent tensions in the Middle East causing temporary spikes in oil prices. Analysts warn that if conflicts escalate and disrupt oil supply, prices could exceed $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a chain reaction [9] - While historical data shows that geopolitical crises have limited long-term impacts on U.S. stock returns, short-term volatility is likely to increase [9]

Core Insights - Emerging market banks have demonstrated resilience amid global volatility and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1 - The performance of emerging market banks is notably strong despite external challenges [1] - Factors contributing to this resilience include robust capital positions and improved asset quality [1] - The sector is expected to continue adapting to changing economic conditions and regulatory environments [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, indicating a potential false breakout and the importance of moving averages in determining market trends [4][6] - HSBC's report analyzes the driving forces behind gold's price movements, suggesting that while geopolitical risks and central bank demand support high prices, weakening physical demand and increasing supply may pressure prices in the future [8][10] - The report forecasts a trading range for gold prices in 2023 between $3,100 and $3,600 per ounce, with expectations of challenges in maintaining upward momentum due to various economic factors [8][10] Group 2 - The article highlights that gold's price failed to break the April high of $3,500 per ounce, indicating that the market may have fully priced in geopolitical risks [10] - The commentary suggests that the market's reaction to geopolitical events may have reached a saturation point, requiring more significant events to drive prices higher [10] - Upcoming events, such as the U.S. non-farm payroll data release, are expected to influence market sentiment and gold price movements, with a focus on the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [11]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月01日17时01分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.47%，沪银主力收涨1.11%。①核心逻辑，短期中东地缘冲突缓和，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，美联储重新降息逻辑蓄势待发。②避险属性方面，特朗普对美日贸易谈判表示失望，贝森特警告将 提高关税。欧盟贸易执委本周将前往华盛顿与美国谈判，寻求达成公平协议。③货币属性方面，鲍威尔重申降息可以等待，美联储 正在研究关税影响。关税或仅是一次性冲击，但美联储需管理导致持久通胀的风险。美国5月消费者支出意外下降；通胀温和上 行，核心PCE物价指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.7%。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息空间涨至75基点左 右。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币升值利空国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震 荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。⑥本周有多项美国就业数据，目前市场预期走弱，建议关注数据超预期风险。 策略：稳健者观望，激进者逢低做多。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 表1 黄金相关数据： | ...