Group 1: Domestic Gold Prices - Domestic gold prices have continued to rise, with notable increases in various brands. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price increased by 6 CNY per gram, reaching 1336 CNY per gram, the highest among gold stores today [1] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has slightly narrowed to 104 CNY per gram, indicating a more stable market [1] - Detailed price listings show that several brands, including Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang, have also experienced minor increases, while others like Shanghai China Gold remained unchanged [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling price has risen by 10 CNY per gram, reflecting a significant variation among different brands [2] - Specific recycling prices include 948.50 CNY per gram for general gold, with other brands like Cai Zhi and Chow Sang Sang showing lower rates [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - The international spot gold price has shown volatility, closing at 4229.27 USD per ounce, marking a 1.73% increase [4] - Current spot gold prices are reported at 4239.08 USD per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.23% [4] - Analysts predict that economic slowdown and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could drive more investors back to the gold market, supporting price increases [4] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to a surge in gold prices [4]

金价拉升发生在没有美国重要经济数据的周五，交易员说，缺乏经济指引让市场更依赖政策预期与情绪波动，这句话出自两位匿名交易员的即时反 馈，他们在现场电话连线中表达担忧 从时间轴上看，金价由预期推动，短线由情绪驱动，中线受制度与央行行为制约，这是一条不复杂却常被忽视的线路，政策预期、央行需求与机构 配置三者共同构成金价的中期支撑 制度层面的问题在于政策预期的模糊性与国际货币环境的联动性，面对美联储可能的降息信号，国内外资金如何配置成为制度与市场连续碰撞的场 景，这一点可在多家投行研究报告里找到重复论述 金价涨幅虽不算惊天，但中期预期发生改变，市场分析普遍认为美元走弱将削弱其中期上行动力，机构研究报告在当天午后发布的评述里详细列出 利率路径与货币政策的不确定性 央行与机构在黄金市场的角色被反复提及，观点认为央行购金与ETF增持会继续主导金价，本文查阅了中国黄金网的报告与多家国际评级机构发布 的持仓数据，呈现出的逻辑并非单一推动因素 走访几家黄金首饰门店时，店员向记者展示的是眼下的操作和库存调整，库存账单、进货单据与店员的电话记录构成他们应对价格变化的证据，店 员请求匿名以免影响生意 在交易所间，盘面上的买卖并非一直热 ...

周一（12月1日）亚洲时段，现货黄金继续保持涨势，一度刷新高点至4230.41美元/盎司。这种连续上 涨的格局并非偶然，而是受到了宏观经济环境和货币政策预期的双重支撑。投资者们将黄金视为对抗不 确定性的盾牌，尤其是在经济增速放缓的预期下，黄金的不孳息特性变得格外吸引人。周一的11月ISM 制造业PMI、周三的ISM服务业PMI、周四的周度失业救济申请，以及周五的10月核心PCE和密歇根大 学12月初步消费者信心调查，都将成为焦点。这些数据如果继续显示经济弱势，将进一步巩固降息预 期，推动金价向上突破。美元疲软走势放大黄金的吸引力与黄金上涨相呼应的是美元的持续走弱。上周 美元指数下跌0.69%，创下7月21日以来最大单周跌幅。这种势头直接源于市场对美联储降息的押注， 因为降息通常会削弱美元的吸引力。 地缘政治局势增添金价的不确定变量除了宏观经济因素，地缘政治风险也为黄金市场注入了额外的不确 定性。短期内，美乌代表团围绕俄乌"和平计划"展开的新一轮会谈备受关注。这次会谈于11月30日在美 国佛罗里达州举行，美方包括国务卿鲁比奥、中东问题特使威特科夫和总统特朗普的女婿库什纳，乌方 则由国家安全与国防委员会秘书乌梅罗 ...

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is focusing on precious metals, with significant price increases in silver and gold driven by global liquidity expectations and geopolitical risks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On November 28, international silver prices reached a historic high of $57.245 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 13% [1]. - London spot silver also surpassed $56.5 per ounce, with a daily increase of over 4% [1]. - COMEX gold futures rose above $4263 per ounce, while LME copper prices approached historical highs, indicating a broad rally in precious metals [1]. Group 2: Domestic Market Reaction - The A-share precious metals sector saw a broad increase on the following Monday, with Yintai Gold rising by 6.21% and other key stocks like Shengda Resources and Hunan Gold increasing by over 4% [3]. - The Shanghai silver futures contract opened with a 3.8% increase, reaching the 6500 yuan per kilogram mark, while the Shanghai gold futures contract rose by 1.2% to stabilize above 480 yuan per gram [3]. - The surge in international prices ignited domestic investor sentiment, leading to a doubling of trading volume in precious metal ETFs [3]. Group 3: Driving Factors - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the strengthened expectation of global liquidity easing, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rising from 65% to 82% [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly tensions in the Middle East and supply chain concerns, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the price increases [4]. - The recovery in industrial demand, especially in solar energy and electric vehicles, is supporting silver prices, with predictions of a 15% increase in silver demand from the solar sector by 2025 [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Optimistic views, represented by Goldman Sachs, have raised the 12-month price targets for gold to $4500 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing central bank gold purchases and declining real interest rates [5]. - Cautious perspectives from firms like Zhao Shang Securities warn of potential short-term volatility risks, suggesting that precious metal prices may have already priced in rate cut expectations [5]. - Investors are advised to consider diversifying through precious metal ETFs and funds, while long-term investors should focus on gold's asset allocation value and adjust silver holdings based on industrial demand data [5].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 1 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡运行 可逢低轻仓试多远月合约 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂钯价格上周五小幅回调，今晨注意跳空高开风险 18 | | 铜：美铜高升水，非美地区供应担忧加剧 18 | | 氧化铝：减产难落地 氧化铝持续承压 19 | | 电解铝：宏微观共振 铝价偏强运行 20 | | 铸造铝合金：铝合金随铝价偏强运行 21 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 22 | | 铅：关注冶炼成本支撑有效性 23 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 24 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 等待宏观刺激 25 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，短期多单及时兑现收益 25 | | 多晶硅：短期偏强，但有回落风险 26 | | 碳酸锂：长线回调充分买入 26 | | 锡：刚果（金）矿端供应扰动，锡价冲高 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that amid increasing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties, the medium to long-term demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to continue growing [1] - The supply side of copper is under pressure while the demand side is continuously increasing, suggesting a favorable supply-demand balance for copper and aluminum [1] - The global easing cycle has opened up macroeconomic space, indicating that industrial metal prices still possess upward momentum [1] Group 2 - The mining ETF (561330) tracks the non-ferrous mining index (931892), which selects listed companies involved in precious metals, industrial metals, and rare metals to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal mining industry [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Cautious long [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautious long [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautious long [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Gold and Silver**: Short - term silver has a large - scale market affecting gold; geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold - buying support long - term gold investment; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps and short - term price increases, but caution is needed [1][2] - **Copper**: Global copper supply is tight, prices hit new highs; avoid blind chasing, long - term bullish outlook [1][5][6] - **Zinc**: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][8][9] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price rebound, pay attention to inventory changes [1][10][13] - **Nickel**: Rebound under pressure, pay attention to downstream stainless - steel inventory [1][14][17] - **Lithium carbonate**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, wait for long - entry opportunities after high - level consolidation [1][18][20] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Silver experiences a short - term delivery squeeze, gold has long - term support [2] - **Basic Logic**: Powell's resignation rumor, geopolitical variables, long - term bullish for gold due to global monetary easing and geopolitical restructuring; silver has long - term supply - demand gaps [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term pay attention to support levels, long - term value - based holdings, short - term caution [2] Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper hits a new high, SHFE copper follows [4][5] - **Industry Logic**: Global copper concentrate supply is tight, production declines, inventory changes, and high premiums [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Avoid blind chasing, set trailing stops for long positions, long - term bullish, pay attention to price ranges [6] Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc fluctuates in a range [8] - **Industry Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decline, production and inventory changes, soft squeeze risk eases [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for more macro guidance, long - term short on rebounds, pay attention to price ranges [9] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rebounds slightly, alumina is weak [10][11] - **Industry Logic**: Electrolytic aluminum supply is tight, demand improves; alumina is in excess, pay attention to bauxite supply [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term take profit and wait, pay attention to inventory changes, pay attention to price ranges [13] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price rebounds under pressure, stainless steel falls [14][15] - **Industry Logic**: Indonesia may cut nickel production, inventory changes, stainless - steel demand enters the off - season [16] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on dips and wait, pay attention to stainless - steel inventory, pay attention to price ranges [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2605 opens low and goes high, slightly falls at the end [18][19] - **Industry Logic**: Total inventory decreases for 15 consecutive weeks, production and demand conditions, wait for long - entry opportunities [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to price ranges [21]

11月，是很危险的一个月！ 这个月里，股市和黄金这两个前期涨幅很大的主要资产，都迎来急剧震荡。 股市中，最终还是走向了"盘久必跌"，上证指数从4000点一路下挫，勉强守住3800点。科技板块调整更大些， 科创50、科创100指数，期间最大跌幅都近10个点。 黄金呢，美联储降息预期急转弯，美元流动性突然收紧的利空砸向市场，伦敦金从4200美元/盎司的高位直线 跳水。 AI有泡沫！黄金有泡沫！ 这几个月里，市场关于"泡沫"的质疑与担忧越来越大。我们每个人的账户钱袋子，随时都有被快速压扁的可 能。 "危局"中央，外资巨头集体发声唱多中国，唱多黄金！ 对股市，当下大家最担忧的无非集中在3点上。 一是牛市持续时间似乎有点长了。 A股牛短熊长的调性，像一把悬在头顶的达摩克利斯之剑，让很多人对牛市"时长"的风险格外敏感。 如果从去年924行情算起，到现在，这轮牛市已经持续1年零2个月，加上前期4000点附近的盘整已经消耗大量 动能，当下确实不得不让人担心。 二是估值，这往往是泡沫论者最锋利、也最直观的武器。 当前上证指数、沪深300、中证1000指数，近5年PE历史百分位分别来到92.94%、80.78%、95.29%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term negative impacts on the oil market have been exhausted, and the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. [3][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Saudi Arabia may cut January crude prices for Asian buyers. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $64.62/barrel and $63.73/barrel respectively, with a basis of 38.48 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: The US API crude inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while the EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 6,800 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 28, which is bullish. [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - **Main positions**: As of October 14, WTI crude oil main positions were long, with a decrease in long positions. As of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions were long, also with a decrease in long positions, which is bearish. [3] - **Expectation**: There was no significant progress in the US - Russia peace talks. The US increased pressure on Venezuela, raising geopolitical concerns. The OPEC+ meeting continued the previous resolution, and the short - term impact on oil prices is weak. The market is focusing on geopolitical conflicts. Military action against Venezuela may boost oil prices in the short term. [3] 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. Eight OPEC+ countries will suspend production increases in January - March 2026 due to seasonal reasons. [5] - US President Trump tried to negotiate with Venezuelan President Maduro, but the negotiation failed. Trump announced the closure of Venezuela's airspace, and the US military is on standby. Military action may start soon. [5] - US and Ukrainian officials held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, claiming the talks were productive, and the US Secretary of State is optimistic about the progress. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Sanctions on Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - **Bearish factors**: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of oil oversupply, and there may be a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - **Market driver**: Short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 0.74 to $62.54 (a 1.20% increase), WTI crude oil rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase), SC crude oil fell by 4.60 to 442.8 (a 1.03% decrease), and Oman crude oil fell by 0.47 to $62.82 (a 0.74% decrease). [7] - **Spot market**: The prices of various crude oils also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd rose by 0.39 to $63.56 (a 0.62% increase), and WTI rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase). [9] - **Inventory data**: API and EIA inventory data showed different trends. API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the same period. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - WTI and Brent crude oil main positions have shown a decrease in long positions recently. For example, as of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions decreased by 57,430 to 120,934. [3][18][19]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 1 日 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 因美联储降息预期继续发酵，中国印度年底首饰消费旺季即将到来，同时特 朗普称美国将很快对委内瑞拉展开地面行动，旺季需求预期、流动性溢价预期和 避险需求推动近期贵金属偏强运行，伦敦黄金进一步反弹至 4200 美元/盎司附近； 由于美联储降息改善美国甚至全球经济增长前景，工业属性较强的白银走势强于 黄金，伦敦金银比值跌破 78，在铂钯上市炒作背景下短期内白银仍将强于黄金。 中短期内多空因素交织，我们判断伦敦黄金需要在 3880-4380 美元/盎司的 ...