投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储降息预期降温，有色板块冲高回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin price experienced a sharp decline, dropping to $93,778.6, erasing a 30% year-to-date gain, with a current price of $94,886.2, down 0.2% [2] - The primary driver of this decline is a change in liquidity expectations due to higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, leading to decreased confidence in a December interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has fallen below 50% to 44.4%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has risen to 55.6% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's latest report indicates that if the Federal Reserve maintains its current stance in December, tightening dollar liquidity will directly limit the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] - Analyst Damian Chmiel warns that if Bitcoin remains below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with a potential target near $74,000, representing about a 30% downside from current levels [3] - Despite market volatility, some institutions are still entering the market, with Strategy Company recently purchasing 397 Bitcoins for approximately $45.6 million, bringing their total holdings to 641,205 Bitcoins at an average cost of $74,057 each [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 贵金属冲高回落，短期建议观望 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-17 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 ◆ 上周贵金属冲高回落，但周线仍整体收涨。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）上半 周，美国政府即将结束停摆，市场预期美国财政部即将释放流动性，同时美联储12月 降息预期提升和美联储独立性继续遭到削弱等，美元指数走弱，提振贵金属价格再度 强势上涨；且白银受益于流动性和供应偏紧(国内库存走低+国内TD升水期货)利好， 表现远强于黄金，沪银期货价格创历史新高。（2）后随着美国政府停摆结束落地， 市场避险需求有所削弱，加上在美国关键经济数据持续缺失背景下，多位美联储官员 发表偏鹰派言论，市场预测美联储12月降息概率低于50%，美债收益率回升，引发投 资者恐慌，美股、比特币等风险资产持续下挫；在流动性风险下，贵金属亦遭到同步 抛售，致使金银价格上周五夜盘大幅下挫，且白银因前期涨幅较大，获利了结压力更 大，因此跌幅更甚。 ◆ 后市展望：我们认为流动性风险持续的时间或相对有限，因此贵金属价格在经历上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - Copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the Shanghai Copper main contract operating in the range of 85,800 - 87,400 yuan/ton and LME Copper 3M in the range of 10,720 - 11,000 US dollars/ton [4] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. Although the short - term rise has slowed down, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, the prices may strengthen further after consolidation. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21,650 - 22,000 yuan/ton and LME Aluminum 3M in the range of 2,830 - 2,890 US dollars/ton [6] - Lead prices are expected to slow down in growth and enter a volatile state [8] - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term [10] - Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] - Nickel prices are under fundamental pressure. The short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] - For lithium carbonate, the current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The short - term upside space may be limited without continuous driving forces. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in lithium - battery materials in December, battery production in the first quarter, and the equity market atmosphere. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is expected to operate in the range of 85,300 - 89,900 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to continue the downward trend under the background of high supply, weak demand, and insufficient cost support [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term [28] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Fed rate - cut expectations weakened, leading to a correction in precious - metal prices. On Friday, copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME Copper 3M contract closed down 0.12% at 10,846 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,680 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories decreased by 450 to 135,725 tons. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M changed from a discount to a slight premium. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories decreased week - on - week, and warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 50,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai rose to 55 yuan/ton, and the trading sentiment warmed up. Inventories in Guangdong decreased, and the spot premium was 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 800 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,480 yuan/ton, narrowing week - on - week [3] - **Strategy View**: The US government reopened, but there are some headwinds at the geopolitical level. The impact on sentiment is expected to be limited. In terms of the industry, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight. After the price correction, the spot market has improved marginally. The short - term pressure on refined copper inventory accumulation is not large, and copper prices are expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Friday, market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices declined. LME Aluminum closed down 0.64% at 2,858 US dollars/ton, and the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21,795 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai Aluminum weighted contract decreased by 4.4 to 784,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 65,000 tons. Domestic inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods fluctuated and declined. The market trading was still poor. The spot price of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at par with the futures, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand purchases. LME aluminum inventories decreased by 0.1 to 552,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and the Cash/3M discount widened [5] - **Strategy View**: The reopening of the US government, combined with the expectation of tight overseas supply and low domestic inventories, led to a significant increase in positions and a sharp rise in Shanghai Aluminum. Currently, domestic aluminum - ingot inventories are relatively volatile, and overseas aluminum inventories are still at a low level, strongly supporting aluminum prices. Although the short - term decline in market risk appetite has slowed down the rise of aluminum prices, if domestic inventories can be effectively reduced, aluminum prices still have the hope of further strengthening after consolidation [6] Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Lead index closed down 0.91% at 17,501 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 123,600 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Lead 3S fell 20.5 to 2,068 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 158,500 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,425 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,325 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric - vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead - ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, the domestic basis was - 280 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 50 yuan/ton. LME lead - ingot inventories were 224,000 tons, and LME lead - ingot cancelled warrants were 95,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 24.26 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 94.4 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.193, and the lead - ingot import profit and loss was - 315.86 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories slightly increased to 40,900 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: Lead - ore inventories increased slightly, but the TC of lead concentrates continued to decline. Waste - battery inventories increased slightly, and the supply of domestic lead raw materials remained tight. The profits of primary and secondary smelting were good, the operating rate of primary smelting remained high, and the operating rate of secondary smelting continued to rise. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises improved marginally. Overall, domestic lead - ingot social inventories increased marginally. Last week, lead prices tried to break through the 17,800 - yuan level again. However, with the hawkish remarks of Fed officials, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Lead changed from long to short. It is expected that the growth rate of lead prices will slow down, and the prices will enter a volatile state [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc index closed down 1.39% at 22,455 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,700 lots. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S fell 63 to 3,026 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 228,200 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,490 yuan/ton, the basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, the basis in Tianjin was - 70 yuan/ton, the basis in Guangdong was - 60 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 30 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc - ingot futures inventory was 71,800 tons, the domestic basis in Shanghai was - 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was - 55 yuan/ton. LME zinc - ingot inventories were 37,800 tons, and LME zinc - ingot cancelled warrants were 3,900 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was 121.49 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 49.15 US dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.048, and the zinc - ingot import profit and loss was - 4,292.04 yuan/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, domestic social inventories slightly decreased to 157,900 tons [9] - **Strategy View**: Zinc - ore inventories increased slightly, but zinc ore remained in short supply during the winter stockpiling period of smelters. The TC of zinc concentrates continued to decline, and the profits of zinc smelting were damaged. The supply of zinc ingots decreased marginally. The downstream operating rate remained stable, and the growth of domestic zinc - ingot social inventories slowed down. In the LME market, zinc - ingot warrants slowly increased, and the LME zinc monthly spread decreased marginally. With the hawkish remarks of Fed officials last Friday, the sentiment in the precious - metal and non - ferrous - metal markets declined, and the main long - position holders quickly reduced their positions. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc quickly declined. It is expected that zinc prices will be weak in the short term [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On November 14, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 291,450 yuan/ton, down 2.24% from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of Shanghai Futures Exchange futures increased by 234 tons to 5,498 tons. The upstream 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was quoted at 280,100 yuan/ton, down 3,900 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of supply, with the end of the seasonal maintenance of large smelters in Yunnan, the operating rates of tin - ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces have stabilized, but the overall operating level is still at a historical low. The core reason is that the problem of tight supply of tin - ore raw materials has not been fundamentally resolved. Although the mining licenses in the Wa State of Myanmar have been approved, affected by the rainy season and the slow actual resumption of production, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level and cannot effectively make up for the supply gap. According to customs data, in September 2025, China's import volume of tin - concentrate physical quantity reached 8,714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. In terms of demand, although the consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is slightly weak, the long - term demand expectation brought by emerging fields such as new - energy vehicles and AI servers provides support for tin prices. In October, the operating rate of domestic tin - solder enterprises showed a slight warming trend. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished their inventories on dips [11] - **Strategy View**: In the short term, the supply and demand of tin are in a tight - balance state, and the price is expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile state. In terms of operation, it is recommended to go long on dips. The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and overseas LME Tin in the range of 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, nickel prices fell sharply. At 3 pm, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 117,080 yuan/ton, down 1.56% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand was relatively strong. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 3,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, the overall trading atmosphere in the nickel - ore market was okay this week, and nickel - ore prices were stable with a slight upward trend. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 52.8 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic - trade laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged from last week; and the CIF price of 1.5% - grade nickel ore from the Philippines was 58 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. In terms of nickel - iron, prices fell rapidly. The ex - factory price of domestic high - nickel pig iron was 905.5 yuan/nickel point, with the average price down 3.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [14] - **Strategy View**: The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures. First, refined - nickel inventories have been increasing since October, directly suppressing nickel prices. Second, nickel - iron prices have been falling rapidly since November, and the expectation of RKEF production lines switching to high - grade nickel matte has increased. The supply of refined nickel is expected to increase significantly. In addition, the demand for nickel sulfate is gradually weakening, and with the expected commissioning of the Indonesian MHP project, the supply of refined - nickel raw materials has been further supplemented. Considering that the current profit level of nickel - iron is already at an absolute low, it is expected that the short - term decline space of nickel prices is limited. However, it is also necessary to guard against the negative - feedback risk caused by the decline in nickel - ore prices. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel - iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops enough (around 115,000 yuan/ton), light - position long positions can be gradually established. The short - term Shanghai Nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and LME Nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [15][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On November 14, the evening quotation of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 86,543 yuan, down 1.14% from the previous working day and up 7.34% for the week. The MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 86,200 - 87,300 yuan, with the average price down 1,000 yuan (- 1.14%) from the previous working day. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 85,200 - 85,700 yuan, with the average price down 1.16% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 87,360 yuan, down 0.55% from the previous closing price and up 6.15% for the week. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 250 yuan. The CIF price of SMM Australian - imported SC6 lithium concentrate was quoted at 1,040 - 1,070 US dollars/ton, with the average price up 0.48% from the previous day and up 12.23% for the week [18] - **Strategy View**: The current market contradiction is concentrated on the demand side. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles and energy - storage batteries have reached new highs, and the high - level consumption has driven the bullish sentiment in the lithium - battery material and raw - material markets. In the short term, the domestic lithium - carbonate production is approaching the upper limit, the capacity utilization rates of all links in the industrial chain are at the annual peak, the lithium - salt spot is in short supply, and the inventory days have reached the lowest level since data records began. At the same time, the expected accelerated inventory reduction in the market has been fully traded, and the peak season is in

国债期货 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 短期内预计国债期货区间震荡 核心观点 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货：短期内预计国债期货区间震荡 上周国债期货震荡整理。目前国债期货处于上下空间均有所受 限的状态。中长期来看我国内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，最新统 计局公布的消费与投资数据均表现偏弱，稳定宏观内需需要偏宽松 的货币环境，国债期货中长期的支撑力量较强。不过短期来看今年 经济数据表现具备韧性，年末继续加码宽松的必要性不高，特别是 近期海外美联储降息预期有所反复，短期内降息的可能性不高，国 债期货上行动能有限。总的来说，短期内国债期货以震荡整理为主。 国债期货 │ 周报 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格号：F3035632 投资咨询号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term, the global supply - side growth rate of primary aluminum may slow down in 2026 due to capacity constraints in China and slow new capacity and复产 progress overseas, while demand is expected to remain resilient, with the supply gap expanding compared to 2025. The mid - term supply - demand pattern is still strong. In the near term, the aluminum price may fluctuate in late November as there is no significant new demand increase despite sufficient supply and resilient demand [4][11]. - The aluminum market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait for the price to rise. For short - term trading, consider reducing or exiting long positions to avoid risks [4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall View - **Aluminum Ore Market**: Domestic bauxite inventory has reached the same - period high, sufficient for this year's production. Although there are repeated disturbances in the mining end, the short - term impact is limited [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of November 14, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 96 million tons and a utilization rate of about 85.37%. Alumina supply and demand have been in surplus for some time, and supply flexibility is restricted. The expected increase in imported ore supply also puts downward pressure on ore prices [9]. - **Production of Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 45.7165 million tons, with an operating capacity of about 44.5593 million tons. The global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage, and overseas production cuts due to power shortages may reduce future supply increments [9]. - **Import and Export**: In October, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was about 503,000 tons, slightly lower than in September, at the average level in recent years. The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 1,700 yuan/ton, narrowing from last week's 2,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: Different aluminum product sectors have different demand situations. The aluminum profile and alloy sectors are relatively stable, while the aluminum plate, strip, and foil sectors may face a downward trend. The aluminum cable sector may see a slight increase, and the overall downstream processing industry shows a differentiated trend [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 619,000 tons, basically stable compared to last week, about 10% higher than the same period last year. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years. The aluminum rod inventory is 139,500 tons, about 2% higher than last week and about 50% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory is about 1% higher than last week and about 22% lower than last year, still at a low level in recent years [10][17][18]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 22,800 yuan/ton, with a profit of about 50 yuan/ton. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,950 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 4,800 yuan/ton, up from 4,400 yuan/ton last week [11]. - **Market Expectation**: The overseas macro - environment is unfavorable due to uncertainties in the US economic data and the Fed's hawkish stance. The aluminum price may fluctuate in the short term, and the mid - term supply - demand pattern is strong [11]. Important Industry Price Changes - The price of bauxite is generally stable, but the market is pessimistic about the future, expecting a further decline in December. The coal price has been rising since September, and the supply - demand is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The alumina price has been falling since mid - August, and the cost support may strengthen after the dry season in the southwest [12]. Important Industry Inventory Changes - The domestic port bauxite inventory has slightly increased, remaining at a high level this year. The alumina inventory has been rapidly accumulating since late May, reaching a high level in recent years. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas is stable, while the aluminum rod inventory has increased [17]. Supply and Demand Situation - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62% this week, showing a differentiated trend. It is expected that the short - term operating rate will continue to show a differentiated pattern [26]. Futures and Spot Structure - The current price structure of Shanghai aluminum futures is moderately weak [29]. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 1,840 yuan/ton this week, up from - 2,080 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread has a moderately negative impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The net long position is near the high since April 2022. The latest net long position has slightly decreased, but the long - side has been increasing positions since June, and the short - side has been slightly increasing since October. The overall market is still strong [38]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net long position of the main contract has remained stable this week, at a high level this year. The long - and short - sides have been increasing positions since October. The net long position of financial speculation - based funds has decreased, with large internal differences. The net long position of funds from mid - and downstream enterprises has decreased in the past two weeks. Overall, the main funds are still bullish, but the differences are increasing [41].

Group 1: Market Overview - Global asset performance this week shows commodities leading with a 1.67% increase, followed by stocks at 0.41%, while bonds fell by 0.11% and REITs dropped by 1.04% [3] - European stock markets rebounded, with the STOXX index up 1.77% and the French CAC40 rising 2.77%, while the US stock market remained volatile [4] - Emerging markets saw mixed results, with Brazil's IBOVESPA index hitting a record high with a 2.39% increase, while China's A-shares faced a decline of 1.08% [4] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Energy and metal prices increased, with Brent crude oil rising 1.19% to $64.39 per barrel and gold prices up 2.07% to $4,084.06 per ounce [5][10] - The US commercial crude oil inventory rose significantly by 6.41 million barrels, indicating a low inventory level compared to the past five years [9] - OPEC and other agencies have raised their 2025 global oil supply forecasts, predicting an increase in production [8] Group 3: Economic and Policy Developments - The US government shutdown has ended, with a temporary funding bill signed to keep operations running until January 30, 2026, but the shutdown is expected to reduce Q4 GDP by 1.5% [6] - Federal Reserve officials expressed hawkish views, with market expectations for a rate cut in December dropping from 66.2% to 43.2% [6] - The recent increase in mortgage delinquencies and stock market volatility may support the case for a rate cut in December [7] Group 4: REITs and Real Estate - The global REITs index fell by 0.83%, with healthcare and office sectors showing better performance compared to retail and industrial sectors [11] - US REITs reported better-than-expected revenue and profit growth for Q3, particularly in the office sector [12] - The current low-interest-rate environment is favorable for REITs, which possess both equity and bond characteristics [12] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.92% and the technology index declining by 1.80% [13] - Despite the index performance, there was active trading with a single-day turnover of HKD 209.6 billion, indicating investor confidence [14] - High-dividend assets are favored, with the Hang Seng high-dividend index showing a yield of 6%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [14]

锌周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 走势锚定宏观 锌价宽幅震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价震荡回落。宏观面来看，美国政府结束停 摆，但美联储官员集中放鹰，因担忧通胀释放降息谨慎言论， 12 月降息预期回落，抑制市场风险偏好。国内 10 月经济全 面走弱，且新增信贷及社融低于预期且低于季节性，市场情 绪降温。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，CZSPT 发布 2026Q1 进口锌矿加工费指导价 105-120 美元/吨，略高于当前现货加工费。国际铅锌周上市 场普遍预计 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 降息预期下降，金银将延续调整 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 风险因素：美国就业数据不及预期 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格在前几个交易日大幅上涨，特别是白银在 上周四盘中再创新高，但之后回吐涨幅，特别是在上周五， 金银价格均出现大幅下挫。主要是因为近期美联储官员的 发言偏鹰，市场对于12月降息的预期大幅下降，金银价格 承压。 ⚫ 上周四美国众议院通过临时拨款法案，为创纪录的43天联 邦政府停摆画上句号。美国联邦机构将在明年1月30日 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of the recent rise in gold prices is the strong market expectation for a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with a probability of over 50% for a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1][2][4] - Gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, reaching as high as $4245.23 per ounce, and have increased nearly 60% year-to-date, potentially marking the best annual performance since 1979 [5][7] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by rate cut trades rather than safe-haven buying, indicating potential for further price breakthroughs if rate cut expectations are confirmed [7] Group 2 - Central banks globally have resumed gold purchases, with a total of 220 tons acquired in Q3 2025, marking a 28% increase from the previous quarter [8] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 12th consecutive month, adding 30,000 ounces in October, while global gold ETF inflows reached a record high of $26 billion in Q3 2025 [9] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has alleviated liquidity constraints, providing additional support for gold prices [9] Group 3 - Market participants remain optimistic about the potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with structural demand from official sectors providing strong fundamental support for long-term gold price increases [13] - The outlook for gold and silver prices is positive in the medium to long term (3-5 years) due to strategic allocations by central banks and the potential for global economic cooling and monetary policy easing [13] - Investors are advised to monitor upcoming ADP and non-farm payroll data, as continued economic slowdown could enhance the likelihood of gold prices reaching $4200 [14]