Core Insights - Monthly commodity price forecast indicates oil price fluctuations, while copper and gold prices are expected to rise [2][6] Domestic Demand - Sales of new homes, second-hand homes, and passenger cars are all experiencing a decline in growth rates. In August, new home sales saw a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home sales decreased in volume but increased in price. The market is in a seasonal downturn, compounded by internal competition, with July passenger car sales growth rates for both retail and wholesale declining. The average sales price of home appliances has mostly decreased [2] - Movie box office revenue and attendance continue to exceed last year's levels, driven by popular films, with summer box office revenue surpassing 7.7 billion yuan. Tourism consumption remains strong, with hotel occupancy rates rising and revenue per available room increasing, consistently above last year’s figures. Additionally, inbound tourism is performing well, with the Google "China Travel" search index reaching new highs, and international flight operations continuing to rise compared to last year [2] External Demand - The expansion of tariffs on U.S. industries has led to a continued decline in shipping volumes from China to the U.S. Former President Trump announced plans to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, as well as small tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals, with future rates potentially rising to 250%. Furthermore, a 25% punitive tariff will be applied to Indian purchases of Russian oil [3] - Overall exports are weakening, with a decline in CCFI shipping rates and a significant drop in container throughput. The growth rate of container bookings from China to the U.S. is decreasing, and shipping volumes continue to decline. Traditional transshipment regions, such as Southeast Asian ports, are also seeing a year-on-year decrease in docking volumes. In June, new orders in the U.S. manufacturing sector fell year-on-year, with transportation equipment manufacturing being a significant drag [3] Production - Weather factors are impacting prices, with high temperatures suppressing demand. However, steel mill profitability is on the rise, and production growth rates for sample steel mills continue to increase. The industry’s self-imposed production cuts have had limited effects, leading to a decrease in rebar prices this week. The glass industry, previously influenced by internal competition, has also seen price declines due to limited changes in fundamentals [4] - Due to typhoons and heavy rainfall, cement shipment rates are low, but national average cement prices have risen this week. However, the direct supply of cement to construction sites has decreased week-on-week, and the funding availability rate for sample construction sites has also declined, indicating overall weak downstream demand [4] - The average daily coal consumption of six major power plants has increased this week due to sustained high temperatures, while frequent rainfall has restricted coal production and transportation in major producing areas, leading to a slight decrease in coal market supply and a continued rise in thermal coal prices [5] Prices - Gold and copper prices are rebounding, while oil prices are declining. Weakness in the U.S. labor market has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, contributing to the rise in gold prices. A mining accident in Chile, combined with expectations for rate cuts, has driven copper prices upward. Conversely, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation and continued OPEC+ production increases have put downward pressure on oil prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the subsequent consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support for Shanghai Aluminum [55]. - The aluminum electrolysis industry is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year due to limited new capacity, high capacity utilization rate, rigid supply, and low - inventory support [27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The overall market volume continues to rise steadily, and the long - term production volume of aluminum is expected to increase. The cost of electricity decreases, and the market does not over - pessimistically expect subsequent consumption [8]. - The US employment data weakens, and the expectation of interest rate cuts heats up again. The domestic short - term market mainly waits and sees, waiting for verification in the peak season [9][12]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - The overall market volume continues to rise steadily, and the long - term production volume of aluminum is expected to increase. The cost of electricity decreases, and the market does not over - pessimistically expect subsequent consumption [8]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - The inventory has increased significantly, and the water - sticker sentiment has expanded [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Data - In the US, in July, non - farm payrolls increased by 73,000, far lower than expected, and the data of the previous two months was revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The year - on - year increase in hourly wages rose from 3.8% to 3.9%. The number of initial jobless claims last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, hitting a new high since November 2021. The ISM non - manufacturing index in July was 50.1, lower than expected. The expectation of interest rate cuts has heated up again, and the probability of an interest rate cut in September is as high as 91% [10]. - In China, in July, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The new social financing in July increased year - on - year supported by government bonds, and the growth rate of new loans was still high. After the Politburo meeting in July, the market sentiment cooled marginally, and the short - term market mainly waits and sees, waiting for verification in the peak season [13]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Industry Chain Data - **Aluminum Bauxite**: In June 2025, the domestic production of bauxite was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, the domestic bauxite market was stable, but rainfall in major producing areas restricted production. The procurement price in Shanxi has remained stable for two months. The annual production plan of a mine in Guinea is 20 - 25 million tons, and its resumption of production has changed the supply from tight balance to surplus. In the first half of the year, China's bauxite imports increased by 26.086 million tons year - on - year, with an increase of 33.74%. The port inventory is expected to increase. The import price is expected to have limited rebound [16][18]. - **Alumina**: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from late June; the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, reaching a new high this year, with an operating rate of 84.01%. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; imported 101,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 168.4%. With the production of Chinese enterprises in Indonesia in the third quarter, imports may increase again. The domestic alumina price has rebounded, and the import window is close to opening [22]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The growth space of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is limited. The capacity utilization rate has exceeded 95%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 21.6948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. As of late July, the national electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.232 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons month - on - month; the operating capacity was 44.214 million tons, an increase of 550,000 tons, with an operating rate of 97.8%. Multiple capacity replacement projects have been put into production. Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year [25][27]. - **Downstream Demand**: In July, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 58.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The operating rates of various sectors all declined. In the first half of 2025, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 200GW, but it slowed down in June. From January to June, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various real estate indicators declined [30][32][35]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the LME aluminum inventory increased to 469,500 tons. On August 1, the SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 1,737 tons to 117,500 tons. As of August 7, the electrolytic aluminum inventory in major Chinese markets was 549,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from Monday. The inventory is still at a relatively low level, and the exchange warehouse receipt inventory has dropped to around 43,000 tons, supporting the aluminum price [37][40]. - **Aluminum Premium**: On August 7, the Shanghai Wumei aluminum average price premium was - 60 yuan/ton, with an expanded premium range; the LME aluminum 0 - 3 premium was 0.65 US dollars/ton, with a narrowed premium range [42]. - **Waste Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys**: The import of waste aluminum in China may decrease month - on - month in August. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy production capacity increased compared with last week, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy production capacity remained flat compared with last week. As of August 8, the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloys increased by 24,000 tons to 48,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory decreased by 33,000 tons to 60,700 tons [45][47][51]. 3.4后市研判 - The peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" is coming, and the subsequent consumption expectation is not overly pessimistic. The 60 - day moving average of 20,400 provides support for Shanghai Aluminum [55].

Report Summary - The short - term copper price is expected to remain volatile, with support at 77,000 [5][46] - The US employment data has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has increased again, which is helpful for boosting the copper price [8][9] - The domestic short - term market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode, waiting for verification during the peak season [11][12] Multi - empty Focus Bullish Factors - The weakening of US employment data has led to a re - warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with the probability of a rate cut in September priced in the interest - rate futures market reaching as high as 91%, which is beneficial for copper prices [8][9] - The growth of new energy vehicle production and sales and exports, as well as the high - speed growth in the power sector, will drive copper consumption. From January to June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively, and exports increased by 75.2%. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity increased by 18% year - on - year, and solar power generation increased by 54.2% [30][31][37] - The narrowing of the refined - scrap copper price difference is conducive to refined copper consumption. As of August 7, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around - 1,340 yuan/ton [26] Bearish Factors - The global and Asian manufacturing PMIs declined in July. The global manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [12] - The real - estate copper demand remains weak. From January to June, real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.0% [34] - The household appliance production schedule in August still shows a year - on - year decline, although the decline is expected to narrow. The combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% year - on - year [40] Data Analysis Supply - side Data - China's copper ore concentrate imports in July were stable. The import volume in July was 2.56 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to July was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [15] - The output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. In July, the output of SMM China electrolytic copper increased by 39,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 3.47% and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. SMM expects a slight decline in domestic refined copper output in August [21] - China's scrap copper imports in June decreased slightly. The import volume was 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% but a year - on - year increase of 8.49% [24] Demand - side Data - The new photovoltaic installed capacity declined in June, but the power sector showed high - speed growth. As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%, and solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2% [30][31] - The real - estate copper demand remains weak. From January to June, real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and new housing starts decreased by 20.0% [34] - The automobile industry maintains high prosperity. From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively [37] - The household appliance production schedule in August still shows a year - on - year decline, although the decline is expected to narrow. The combined production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August decreased by 4.9% year - on - year [40] Inventory Data - Copper inventories in various locations have increased. LME copper inventory reached 156,000 tons, SHFE copper inventory reached 72,543 tons, COMEX copper inventory reached 263,296 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 7 was 133,300 tons [42] Price Data - The domestic copper spot premium has decreased, and the foreign premium or discount has increased. On August 7, the spot premium of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper was around 65 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount was around - 65.63 US dollars/ton [44] Future Market Judgment - The short - term copper price is expected to remain volatile, with support at 77,000. The market needs to pay attention to the impact of factors such as US interest - rate policies, domestic economic recovery, and supply - demand changes in the copper market [5][46]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Background - The domestic economy is showing stable growth with a GDP increase of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by a 6.4% rise in industrial production and a 5.9% increase in the service sector [10][11] - Investment growth remains stable, with fixed asset investment rising by 2.8% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5%, accounting for 25.2% of total fixed asset investment [10][11] - Consumer spending is robust, contributing 52% to economic growth, with retail sales increasing by 5% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [10][12] Group 2: Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a rise due to increased market sentiment and capital inflows, while the bond market showed fluctuations in yields driven by a loose liquidity environment [2][6] - The performance of major asset classes in July indicated a mixed trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing positive returns, while bond yields initially rose before stabilizing [3][4] - The stock market is expected to face a high-level consolidation phase in the short term due to profit-taking, despite structural opportunities in technology growth and anti-involution policy sectors [2][6] Group 3: External Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor market shows signs of risk, with a notable decline in non-farm payrolls and rising unemployment claims, which may impact economic expectations [6] - The U.S. inflationary pressures are anticipated to persist, potentially affecting consumer spending and overall market sentiment [6] - The outlook for U.S. assets remains cautious, with the dollar index expected to shift from a downward trend to a more volatile range, influenced by economic data and Federal Reserve policy signals [6][8]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.69%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.55%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.26% [2] - The total market turnover increased to HKD 245.7 billion, with the short-selling amount on the main board at HKD 17.795 billion, accounting for 14.47% of the total trading volume [2] - Southbound trading saw a net inflow of HKD 661 million, a significant decrease compared to previous levels [2] Group 2: Northbound Trading Insights - On August 7, the northbound trading volume reached HKD 221.015 billion, representing 12.11% of the total market turnover [3] - Major stocks in the northbound trading included Kweichow Moutai, Industrial Fulian, and Lanke Technology, with transaction amounts of HKD 2.227 billion, HKD 1.650 billion, and HKD 1.520 billion respectively [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector Performance - The real estate sector showed improvement in July sales data due to a low base effect from the previous year, with total bond financing in the real estate industry reaching CNY 71.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 90.3% [3] - Notable stock performances included Yuexiu Property up by 3.04%, Longfor Group up by 3.26%, and China Overseas Land & Investment up by 3.08% [3] Group 4: Logistics Sector Trends - The logistics sector experienced a broad increase in stock prices due to a rise in express delivery base prices in Guangdong and the upcoming peak season in September, which is expected to stabilize prices [4] - Key performers in this sector included ZTO Express up by 4.15% and JD Logistics up by 3.38% [4] Group 5: Company-Specific Analysis - Yum China - Yum China reported a 4% year-on-year increase in total revenue for Q2 2025, reaching USD 2.8 billion, with system sales also up by 4% [7] - The operating profit increased by 14% to USD 304 million, and net profit rose by 1% to USD 215 million, driven by improved efficiency and a rise in delivery revenue [8] - KFC's same-store sales grew by 1%, with total revenue reaching USD 2.09 billion, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales increased by 2% [9][10] Group 6: Future Outlook for Yum China - The company maintains a strong competitive advantage and brand influence in the fast-food sector, with projected net profits of USD 940 million, USD 1.02 billion, and USD 1.05 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The expected EPS for the same years is HKD 20.1, HKD 21.6, and HKD 22.2 [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that JPMorgan has updated its forecast for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, predicting a series of interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with a 25 basis point cut expected at each of the next four meetings [1][2] - The nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump is seen as a significant personnel change that could influence monetary policy decisions [1][2] - JPMorgan's economist Michael Feroli suggests that the Fed may implement a 25 basis point cut at the September meeting, followed by three additional cuts, reflecting a dovish stance from Wall Street [1][2] Group 2 - The approval process for Miran in the Senate before the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is expected to be challenging, which could impact the voting dynamics within the committee [2] - Historical trends indicate that new appointees may abstain from voting at their first FOMC meeting, which could lead to a significant number of dissenting votes if Miran participates [2] - The upcoming meeting's considerations may extend beyond balancing employment and inflation risks to include political and personnel factors, making an early rate cut a potentially less contentious option [2] Group 3 - The labor market is identified as a critical indicator for the Fed's decision-making, with the unemployment rate being a key factor in determining the extent of any rate cuts [3] - A higher unemployment rate (4.4% or above) could lead to more substantial rate cuts, while a lower rate (4.1% or below) amidst rising inflation may face opposition from committee members [3] - The context of the stock market being at historical highs while inflation remains above target complicates the acceptance of a dovish policy by the committee [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations and a pullback on August 8, with the "anti-involution" theme gaining traction, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, where the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 1.55% [1] - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has attracted over 20 million yuan in capital for four consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Major stocks within the Non-ferrous 50 ETF saw significant gains, with Zhongmin Resources, Shenghe Resources, and Hailiang Co. rising over 4%, while Luoyang Molybdenum and Jinchuan Group increased over 3% [3] Group 2 - U.S. non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, leading to a downward revision of previous months' data, which collectively cut 258,000 jobs, the largest revision since June 2020 [4] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 80.3%, with expectations for further easing likely to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [4] - Long-term capital inflows from insurance funds and other "long money" sources are expected to enhance pricing power in the copper and aluminum markets, driven by supply constraints and rising costs [6] Group 3 - The strategic metals sector, particularly rare earths, is anticipated to undergo a value reassessment, with increasing government focus on resource control amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions [7] - Tungsten prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, as existing mines face declining output and new projects are limited [7] - The overall configuration value of the non-ferrous sector is highlighted, supported by multiple favorable factors including supply-side policies and new demand dynamics [7] Group 4 - The Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) encompasses a wide range of metals, including gold, copper, and rare earths, with a copper content of 31%, making it a leading choice in its category [9] - The ETF includes major companies such as Northern Rare Earth and Zhongjin Gold, which are key players in their respective segments [10] - Investors are encouraged to consider the Non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) for exposure to potential opportunities in precious and industrial metals amid economic recovery and rate cut cycles [12]

周四(8月7日)，因特朗普关税措施生效，以及美国疲软就业数据提高降息预期，避险需求提高，黄金价格在此前一个交 易日下跌后大幅上涨。FXStreet分析师Christian Borjon Valencia撰文，对金价技术走势进行分析。 现货黄金周四收盘大涨26.05美元，涨幅0.77%，报3395.30美元/盎司。 Valencia写道，随着美国最新一轮就业数据显示劳动力市场疲软，黄金价格周四逆转走势，录得强劲涨幅。因此，随着 美联储预计将在9月份恢复其宽松周期，投资者增加鸽派押注。 Valencia称，美国持续申请失业救济人数达到2021年11月以来的水平，助长美联储的鸽派押注。随着通胀持续高企，而 美国就业疲软，滞胀风险显现。 美国劳工部周四发布的数据显示，截至7月26日当周，续请失业金人数增加3.8万人，达到197万人。该数据在高位表明失 业人员找到新工作的难度加大。上周初请失业金人数也上升至22.6万，高于经济学家的预期。 Zaner Metals副总裁兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，这些数据支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期。 上周，美国疲软的非农业就业数据提振降息预期。 根据Prime Mar ...

Group 1 - The price volatility of precious metals is expected to increase in the future due to recent changes in U.S. tariffs on gold bars and ongoing economic uncertainties [1][2] - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to weak U.S. employment data and concerns over stagflation, which have driven safe-haven demand [1][3] - The long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, supported by ongoing global economic uncertainties and rising public debt [2][3] Group 2 - The recent imposition of tariffs on Swiss gold bars has led to increased premiums in COMEX gold futures, creating uncertainty about future tariff policies [1] - The upcoming talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump are seen as potential factors influencing precious metal prices [2] - Gold prices have recently tested significant resistance levels, with a need to confirm a breakout above $3,400 per ounce to sustain upward momentum [2][3]

南华贵金属日报:降息预期回升 贵金属延续走高 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强运行，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约785.02元/克，+0.1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9258元/千克，+1.07%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。周四晚间公布的美周度初请失业金人数高于预期，反映就业市场降温，而美7月纽约联储1Y通胀 预期走升。消息面，英国央行周四宣布降息25基点至4%，符合市场预期，但九位货币政策委员会成员中四人 反对降息，亦出现罕见"双轮投票"，显示出央行内部在通胀压力下的政策分歧正在加剧。中国央行则连续 第9个月增持黄金1.86吨至2300.41多。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340，阻力3400，3450。伦敦银 支撑37.6，38，阻力38.5。操作上仍维持回调做多 ...