瑞银调查显示，65%的受访者认为美联储独立性面临风险，47%的人认为风险法治恶化到足以影响资产 配置。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's potential departure has prompted the Trump administration to consider multiple candidates for his successor, with a focus on someone who aligns with Trump's economic agenda [1][2]. Group 1: Succession Planning - Trump has indicated he has "two or three top candidates" in mind to replace Powell but has not disclosed their names [1]. - Discussions have occurred regarding the possibility of appointing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to serve simultaneously as both Treasury Secretary and Federal Reserve Chairman, which would break a long-standing tradition [1]. - Powell's potential continuation in his role has led to speculation about the administration's approach to selecting a successor who would be compliant with Trump's policies [2]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The current political climate surrounding the Federal Reserve is more sensitive than usual, with Powell's silence on his future causing frustration among Trump's advisors [2][3]. - Trump's ability to reshape the Federal Reserve Board is limited, as current board member Adriana Kugler's term ends in January, providing only one opportunity to fill a vacancy before Powell's term ends [2]. - The nomination of a new chairman requires Senate approval, and the narrow Republican majority means Trump can afford to lose only three votes [3]. Group 3: Powell's Influence - If Powell remains on the Board, he can still influence interest rate decisions through the Federal Open Market Committee, which consists of 19 members [4]. - The potential new chairman's influence on monetary policy is uncertain, especially if the candidate is not from the current Board [4]. - Powell's established loyalty among current Board members may provide him with leverage, regardless of who succeeds him [4].

白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特当天在新闻发布会上表示，特朗普将图表发给了美联储。 7月1日，特朗普在总统专机"空军一号"上表示，对于下一任美联储主席，他有"两个或三个人选"，但没 有提供更多信息。 新华社北京7月2日电 综述｜特朗普频繁施压美联储 鲍威尔坚持货币政策"非政治化" 新华社记者刘轶芳 美国总统特朗普本周连续发声，要求美国联邦储备委员会进一步降息，并以下一任美联储主席人选的话 题对现任主席鲍威尔施压。鲍威尔回应称，美联储货币政策必须"完全非政治"，重申央行仍在观察美国 关税带来的影响，而后再进一步决策。 特朗普6月30日在他的社交媒体平台上发布一张图表，声称美国是全球关键利率水平最高的央行之一。 特朗普还在该图表上手写评论，批评鲍威尔让美国损失数以千亿计美元，称"你应该大幅降低利率"，并 在图表中将美国应设利率标注在1%左右位置。特朗普在贴文中称，美联储"应该为自己允许这种情况发 生在美国而感到羞耻"。 高盛日前上调美国2025年利率预测，预计9月、10月和12月将分别降息25个基点，原因是关税影响减弱 和劳动力市场疲软。花旗集团和富国银行也预计美联储将在2025年降息75个基点，瑞银预测降息100个 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is becoming a central battleground in U.S. politics and economics, influenced by President Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the complexities of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75%, criticizing the current leadership for being slow and costing the U.S. economy "hundreds of billions" [3]. - The current policy rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than Trump's target, with Fed officials emphasizing that policy decisions should be data-driven [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to persistent inflation risks and the need to maintain its independence from political pressures [5]. Group 2: Transition Planning for Fed Leadership - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is preparing for the transition of the Fed chair position after Powell's term ends in May 2026, aiming for a smooth nomination process in late 2025 [6][8]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair include current Fed Governor Waller, who is familiar with monetary policy frameworks [7]. - The government plans to follow traditional procedures for the nomination process, contrasting with Trump's high-profile pressure tactics [8]. Group 3: Economic Data as Decision-Making Factors - Key economic data from July to August will be critical for the Fed's decision-making, including employment reports and inflation data [10]. - If employment data indicates a cooling labor market, it may open the door for a rate cut in September [10]. - The upcoming tariff policy decisions will also significantly impact inflation expectations and the Fed's approach [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict over interest rates has evolved into a broader debate about the Fed's independence, with potential implications for economic stability [11]. - If summer data supports a rate cut, tensions may ease; however, persistent inflation could exacerbate conflicts between the White House and the Fed, affecting market stability [11]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor key economic data and Fed officials' statements for signals of policy shifts [11].

沃勒和鲍曼均为特朗普第一任期任命的理事，其中鲍曼刚被提名为监管副主席，沃勒更是传闻中的下任主席候选人。一位华尔街分析师直言："这像是递给 白宫的投名状。" 上午8：30，经济数据雪片般飞来。美国5月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.7%，超出预期；然而个人消费支出环比下滑0.1%，收入更暴跌0.4%——这是年初 以来最大降幅。 华盛顿的夏夜闷热难耐，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔擦去额头的汗水，面对国会山议员们尖锐的提问。仅仅24小时前，他在这里坚称"当前不降息是合适 的"，话音未落，总统特朗普的怒火已席卷社交媒体："鲍威尔是最差的主席！立刻给我降息2到3个百分点！" 这场公开对决如同一颗投入金融市场的震撼弹，拉开了6月28日这个动荡交易日的序幕。 凌晨1：00，芝加哥商品交易所的交易屏幕闪烁着最新预测：美联储7月降息概率仅21%，而9月启动降息的可能性飙升至90%以上。市场刚刚消化了前一日 美联储高层的分裂立场——两位拥有投票权的官员沃勒与鲍曼意外转向鸽派，暗示7月可能降息；但随后十多位官员集体泼下冷水："需要更多数据！" 美联储点阵图暴露了内部裂痕：19位决策者中，7人坚持今年不降息，8人支持降息两次。这种近乎对立 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price opened strong on July 1, with a price of $3316.19 per ounce, reflecting a 0.41% increase, driven by a rebound above the 60-day moving average and a weakening US dollar index [1] - The market is currently cautious, awaiting significant data releases such as the non-farm payrolls, which may limit bullish momentum [1] - The ongoing pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve, along with concerns about tariffs and inflation, creates a complex landscape for US monetary policy, potentially affecting market confidence and economic stability [3] Group 2 - Gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a low of $3274.57 before rebounding to stabilize above the $3300 mark, indicating a short-term bullish trend [5] - The current trading strategy suggests monitoring the $3300 level as a support point, with upward targets at $3328 and $3345, while also considering potential short positions if resistance is encountered [5] - The analysis emphasizes a cautious approach to trading, advocating for a balanced strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies within the established price range [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a slight increase in early Asian trading, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that low yields and dovish expectations may provide support for gold [1] - The market anticipates that the U.S. will implement three interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which could benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve may also drive investors towards precious metals [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Morgan Stanley's report dampens market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in July and September, citing strong inflation data and robust employment reports as key factors [2] - The report indicates that the support for rate cuts is weak, with seven policymakers predicting no cuts this year, contrasting with ongoing pressure from Trump [2] Group 2: Trump's Trade Policies - Trump's erratic behavior has become a significant source of uncertainty for the global economy, with conflicting signals regarding tariff extensions [4] - The potential for new tariffs on industries such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft is under close scrutiny, raising concerns about the impact on global trade [6] Group 3: Economic Implications of Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and potentially leading to friction between the government and the central bank [8] - The rise of protectionism and trade fragmentation is exacerbating the decline in economic growth and productivity, posing urgent threats to growth, inflation, and financial stability [8] Group 4: Economic Forecasts and Market Reactions - A survey indicates that over 90% of economists are concerned about Trump's policies undermining the dollar's safe-haven status, with predictions of rising U.S. federal debt [11] - Following the announcement of tariffs, global stock markets experienced volatility, and the dollar depreciated, leading to expectations that 10-year Treasury yields could exceed 5% by mid-next year [11] Group 5: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve has raised alarms among former officials, warning that it could lead to market chaos and undermine the Fed's credibility [13] - The potential for increased borrowing costs and capital flight from the dollar and U.S. Treasuries could challenge the Fed's ability to manage economic stability [13] Group 6: Future Economic Uncertainty - If Trump opts for reciprocal tariffs instead of extensions, both the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting policies will face greater uncertainty, leading to a more severe global economic test [15]

Group 1 - Central bank leaders are gathering in Sintra, Portugal, to discuss the potential decline of the dollar-centric monetary system amid global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts [1] - The discussion will focus on how to formulate monetary policy in an uncertain environment, particularly in light of President Trump's protectionist policies [1] - Investors are looking for insights from the upcoming forum, especially from key figures like Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde [1] Group 2 - Any signs of threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve could undermine the dollar's status as the preferred currency for global trade, savings, and investment [2] - Concerns about potential successors to Powell who may align more closely with Trump's wishes could further shake market confidence [2] - The dollar has recently fallen to a near four-year low against the euro, trading at 1.17 [2] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde is in a unique position to promote the euro as a stable alternative amid the dollar's challenges, marking a potential "euro moment" [3] - Despite previous pessimism about the euro, economists stress that the EU must deepen integration in finance, economy, and military to elevate the euro's global standing [3] - A recent OMFIF survey indicates that 16% of central banks plan to increase their euro holdings in the next 12-24 months, although demand remains lower than for gold [3] Group 4 - The Bank of Japan is becoming increasingly cautious about interest rate hikes due to expectations surrounding U.S. tariffs [4] - The Bank of Korea may be forced to end its easing cycle due to a sudden rise in the real estate market [4] - The Bank of England is assessing whether signs of a slowing labor market can alleviate inflationary pressures from rapid wage growth [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report's Core View - International gold prices are under short - term pressure, and the rise in silver prices is unsustainable. International gold prices are oscillating under pressure, and international silver prices are tending to weaken. Platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with palladium's decline more obvious than platinum's. The price decline space of gold is limited, the high price of silver is unsustainable, and platinum and palladium prices may experience sharp rises and falls [1][8][11][27][28][29] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Fluctuation Driving Factors - On June 24, 2025, the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel and its supporters led to a rapid decline in international gold prices. On June 26, Trump's consideration of announcing Powell's successor might weaken the US dollar in the short - term, causing international gold prices to strengthen slightly. On June 27, the cease - fire between Israel and Iran further reduced market uncertainty, resulting in a rapid decline in gold prices [6] 3.2 Market Price Trends - International gold prices are oscillating under pressure, and international silver prices are tending to weaken. Platinum and palladium first rose and then fell, with palladium's decline more obvious than platinum's [8][11] 3.3 Market - Related Important Data - COMEX gold inventory continues to decline, while SHFE gold inventory keeps rising. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 7 consecutive months since November 2024, and as of the end of May 2025, its gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces (about 2296.37 tons). The gold - buying actions of central banks around the world are an important support for international gold prices [18][24] 3.4 Market Short - term Outlook - The price decline space of gold is limited as the cease - fire between Israel and Iran eases the situation in the Middle East and reduces global risk - aversion sentiment. The recent rise in silver is mainly driven by speculative funds and lacks industrial fundamentals support, so the high price is unsustainable. Platinum and palladium belong to a more segmented precious metals market, and their prices are more sensitive to capital inflows and outflows, so sharp rises and falls need to be prevented [27][28][29]