海外政策专题报告 特朗普能撼动美联储的独立性吗？ 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 29 日 核心结论 为何当前特朗普不满美联储？当前高利率环境使得特朗普政府需要负担更 高的利息支出。在联邦政府财政压力加剧的背景下，高利率环境导致利息支 出激增，进一步加剧了美国财政困境。随着美国联邦债务限额再度提升 5 万 亿至 41 万亿美元，根据粗略估算美联储每降息 25bp 可以使得美国年利息支 出降低超 1000 亿美元。这一成本敏感性，正是当前特朗普政府积极推动美 联储降息的关键动因之一。 以史为鉴，美联储的独立性被动摇过吗？从历史演进看，美联储的制度独立 性呈现渐进式强化特征。其货币政策始终将独立性置于政府财政压力之上， 并未因联邦债务危机改变政策框架。美联储主席更迭通常会显著影响货币政 策的具体实施路径、工具选择及沟通风格，但对政策框架的连续性影响有限。 如何判断后续美联储货币政策演变。关税政策对通胀的影响或到 7 月才逐步 显现。美国就业数据仍然强劲，但背后也有风险。市场预期最早今年 9 月开 始降息，年内降息概率最大为两次。最早的理事变动将在明年 1 月末，而鲍 威尔主席任期将于明年 5 月到期。若特朗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15 - 7.20 in the next week. Investors are advised to use options to hedge tail risks in the current low - volatility environment [2]. - The release of the child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to stimulate related sectors and drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index trend [3]. - For treasury bonds, although prices have recovered, there are still risks. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to key events such as the FOMC, China - US talks, and the Politburo meeting this week [4][5]. - In the short term, the commodity market is volatile. It is recommended to wait for the sentiment to stabilize before trading. In the long term, focus on the implementation of anti - involution policies and changes in the fundamentals of some commodities [6]. - The price of the EC in the shipping index is expected to be slightly bearish in the short term, but there is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the actions of shipping companies, spot quotes, and cease - fire negotiations [7][8][9]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - Copper prices may decline slightly in the short term as the anti - involution fever subsides. Attention should be paid to macro events this week [13]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [14]. - Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short term. It is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate widely and be bearish in the long term. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [18]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to have support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. - For steel products, the upward trend may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand for steel, new tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - Iron ore prices are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are expected to remain stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [24]. - For coking coal and coke, the market may return to rationality after the sharp decline. Further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [25][26][27]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. - Crude oil prices are expected to continue the sideways - shock pattern. Geopolitical risks need to be focused on [29][30]. - For PX - PTA, it is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - For MEG - bottle chips, it is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - For methanol, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is macro - driven [34]. - For PP, the supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - For PE, the short - term pressure is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - For PVC, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the anti - involution sentiment is unstable [39][40]. - For pure benzene, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term as the market is affected by macro emotions [40][41]. - For styrene, it is recommended to wait and see after the important macro meetings this week due to the expected increase in supply and decrease in demand [43]. - For fuel oil, the short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, it is recommended to wait and see as the supply is low and the demand is slightly improved [44]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - For urea, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - For soda ash, the supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - For glass, the market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. - For logs, the market is expected to have low - volatility shocks in the short term. Pay attention to risk control [47]. - For pulp, pay attention to the adjustment risk. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high after the breakthrough [48]. - For caustic soda, pay attention to the delivery logic of the 09 contract and the pressure on the supply side in the long term [48][49]. - For live pigs, with high supplies, it is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - For oilseeds, pay attention to China - US trade negotiations. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December [51]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1729 at 16:30 yesterday, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1787 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1467, down 48 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said he would never want a weak US dollar, and Powell may be ready to cut interest rates. The European Central Bank is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [2]. - **Core Logic**: The independence of the Fed is being challenged. If Powell is removed, it may trigger the depreciation of the US dollar. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks. Without major events, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will fluctuate between 7.15 - 7.20 [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index fluctuated strongly yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.21%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 450.29 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm. The child - rearing subsidy policy will be implemented from January 1, 2025, with a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year [3]. - **Core Logic**: The market has digested last week's positive news. The child - rearing subsidy policy is expected to drive the stock index up. The outcome of the China - US talks and the Politburo meeting this week will affect the stock index [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell and rose again, closing sharply higher. The central bank net injected 32.51 billion yuan. The capital price improved, with DR001 at around 1.45% and GC001 at around 1.35% [4]. - **Important Information**: A national industrial conference proposed to expand domestic demand and promote industrial development [4][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is sentiment - driven. Although the bond price has recovered, there are still risks. Pay attention to key events this week [4][5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The precious metal market was weak on Monday. COMEX gold 2508 fell 0.65% to $3,314 per ounce, and silver 2509 fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility of London gold may increase. Maintain the idea of buying on dips [10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever subsides. Pay attention to macro events this week [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina may experience high - volatility trading, and investors can consider inter - month arbitrage; casting aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference changes [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc main contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is appropriate to short on rallies [16]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 1.5%, and the stainless steel main contract fell 0.73%. The medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. Focus on the callback of nickel - iron and the recovery of nickel salt demand [17]. - **Tin**: The Shanghai tin index fell slightly on Monday. The short - term price may decline as the anti - involution fever fades. Pay attention to macro events in late July [17][18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures limit - down on Monday. The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. Pay attention to the situation of mines and important meetings this week [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures fell sharply on Monday. The "anti - involution" varieties have corrected. There is support at the bottom. Pay attention to the July meetings [20][21]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead main contract fell 0.24% on the previous trading day. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate. Wait for the peak season and changes in macro and downstream purchasing sentiment [22]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price fell sharply during the day yesterday and stabilized at night. The upward trend may not end. Pay attention to actual demand, tariff policies, and the implementation of anti - involution policies [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by non - fundamental factors. The short - term fundamentals are stable, but the volatility may increase near the meeting [23][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke fell sharply. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented. The market may return to rationality, and further upward movement requires super - expected macro policies [25][26][27]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys rose due to policy expectations and coal - price support. The short - term risk of chasing high is high. Pay attention to the implementation of policy expectations and control risks [27][28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: International crude oil futures rebounded slightly overnight. The price increase was driven by the macro - positive sentiment of the US - EU trade agreement and geopolitical risks [29][30]. - **PX - PTA**: PX - PTA has been oscillating strongly recently. The supply of PX may increase in August. PTA may reduce production to support prices. It is recommended to expand the TA processing fee on dips [30][31]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of MEG has been strong recently, and the supply has increased. It is recommended to wait and see before the implementation of anti - involution policies. The bottle chip price fluctuates with the cost [32][33]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is macro - driven, and it is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **PP**: The supply - demand pressure of PP is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upward space is limited. Pay attention to downstream demand and macro policies [35][36]. - **PE**: The short - term pressure of PE is large, but the downward space is limited. The demand is expected to pick up in the future [37][38][39]. - **PVC**: The anti - involution sentiment of PVC is unstable. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [39][40]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - **Styrene**: The supply of styrene is expected to increase and the demand to decrease in August. The short - term market is affected by macro emotions. It is recommended to wait and see after important macro meetings this week [43]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil has improved, and the demand has rebounded. The short - term drive is downward, and the market remains weak [44]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil is low, and the demand is slightly improved. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Asphalt**: The supply of asphalt has decreased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price is in a shock pattern, and the peak season is expected in the long term. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution policies [44][45]. - **Urea**: The price of urea has been weak recently. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply of soda ash is in a narrow - range fluctuation, and the demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern is strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to cost fluctuations and policy implementation [46]. - **Glass**: The supply of glass has slightly increased, and the demand is in a weak balance. The market will continue to game between reality and expectations. Pay attention to policy implementation and the approach of the delivery logic [47]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The futures price of live pigs fell 1.81%. The supply is high, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [50]. - **Oilseeds**: The price of US soybeans is weak, and the domestic soybean meal price has declined. The supply of imported soybeans is abundant in the short term, and there may be a supply gap after December. Pay attention to China - US trade negotiations [51].

作者丨孙长忠（清华大学全球私募股权研究院研究员） 编辑丨陆跃玲 美联储将于7月29日至30日召开货币政策例会。目前市场认为这次会议降息概率接近于0，9月 降息概率也不到60%，主要原因是美国6月CPI数据表明，美国关税的通胀效应有所显现，美 联储仍需观察后续影响，且目前美国就业和经济增长情况总体良好，不必急于降息。然而最 近一系列相关进展表明，美国经济金融状况和内外环境正在发生新的变化，美联储决策的重 点和平衡点也将相应发生变化，本月会议可能未必按市场预期行事。 美联储两位理事沃勒和鲍曼6月表示支持7月降息，主席鲍威尔随后在国会听证会上也没有排 除这一可能性，表示对关税向零售价格的传导小于预期持"完全开放"的态度并将影响美联储 的政策，同时也强调预计美国关税将在6到8月间对价格产生显著影响，表示要等待形势更加 清晰明朗再作决定。也有FOMC其他委员表示关税将会使美国通胀上升，应继续维持现行利率 不变，但最新的形势变化也可能使美联储官员调整想法。 美国关税政策不确定性或将减弱。从美国最近与日本和欧盟达成的协议来看，15%关税具有标 志性意义，因为日本和欧盟对美贸易分量更大（欧盟最大），可视为美国的关税要求底线。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on July 29-30 is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a near-zero probability of a rate cut in July and less than 60% for September, primarily due to the recent CPI data indicating the inflation effects of tariffs [1] - Recent comments from Fed officials suggest a potential shift in policy considerations, with some members supporting a rate cut while others advocate for maintaining current rates due to rising inflation concerns from tariffs [1][2] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is diminishing, as recent agreements with Japan and the EU suggest a potential stabilization of tariff levels, which could reduce the Fed's concerns regarding inflation and influence their decision-making [2] Group 2: Inflation Trends - Current inflation levels in the U.S. are not showing significant increases, with the June CPI data indicating a projected PCE inflation growth of 2.5% year-on-year, and core PCE at 2.7% [3] - Research indicates that excluding tariff impacts, U.S. inflation has been close to the Fed's 2% target, suggesting that the inflationary pressure from tariffs may not be as significant as previously thought [3] - If consumers absorb one-third of the new tariffs, a permanent 10% increase in tariffs could raise PCE inflation by 0.3 percentage points this year, but this effect is expected to dissipate by next year [3] Group 3: Employment and Economic Growth - Recent employment data shows signs of weakness, with only 147,000 new jobs added in June, primarily from government sectors, while private sector job growth appears stagnant [4] - The private sector's employment situation is critical for understanding economic momentum, and recent adjustments suggest that previous job growth figures may have been overestimated [4] - Economic indicators such as retail sales and PMI show stability, but sectors sensitive to interest rates, like manufacturing and real estate, are experiencing contraction, indicating a need for potential rate cuts to stimulate consumer spending [4] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Fed Independence - There is growing concern regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, especially with external pressures from the Trump administration advocating for rate cuts [5] - A rate cut in July could be perceived as yielding to political pressure, while a refusal to cut rates when appropriate could undermine the Fed's independence [5] - The possibility of postponing a rate cut until September is being considered by some FOMC members, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [5]

尽管如此，分析师认为，一些关键问题仍未解决——包括美联储是否会隶属于白宫。 近期，美国总统特朗普因扬言要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，并主动要求参观美联储总部正在进行的翻修工 程，将鲍威尔推向了风口浪尖。 然而，本周所有人的目光都将聚焦在鲍威尔身上，因为他将在周四凌晨召开个人新闻发布会，这在当前 的政治大戏中无疑是一场"必看"的电视节目。 即将召开的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议对经济而言，其重要性并非特别高。劳动力市场表现稳 健，通胀也保持稳定，即便略高于美联储2%的目标。本次会议对于利率决定而言，也并非具有决定性 意义。市场普遍预计基准利率不会有任何变动。 然而，派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）全球政策与全球资产配置主管本森·德拉姆（Benson Durham）表 示，在上周特朗普造访美联储后，这次会议感觉"至关重要"。 此次会议召开之际，特朗普已连续数周向鲍威尔和美联储施压，要求其降低利率，这令市场处于紧张状 态。特朗普曾考虑解雇鲍威尔，尽管他在造访美联储期间似乎放弃了这一立场。市场一直密切关注特朗 普对鲍威尔和美联储的态度——任何表明美联储丧失独立性的迹象，都可能震动经济并导致借贷成本上 升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of Trump dismissing Powell is considered low due to the high difficulty, low reward, and significant risks involved. Trump is more likely to influence the Federal Reserve by announcing a successor in advance, but the impact on reshaping the Fed may be limited due to internal policy disagreements [1][3]. Group 1 - Trump's criticism of Powell reflects the spread of "fiscal anxiety," exacerbated by the passage of the "Big Beautiful Bill," which indicates a growing reliance on pro-cyclical deficits, leading to high debt issuance costs and declining long-term bond acceptance [1]. - Pressuring the Federal Reserve is viewed as a "damaging tactic" to address fiscal anxiety, which may have immediate effects but significant side effects, increasing the probability of a "triple whammy" scenario in the stock, bond, and currency markets if investors perceive threats to the Fed's independence and transparency [1]. - The recent stablecoin legislation aims to alleviate the Treasury's debt issuance pressure while stripping the Fed of its authority to issue digital currency, thereby creating a "shadow Fed" represented by stablecoin issuers, which expands the White House's control and regulatory scope over the money supply [1]. Group 2 - Historical experience shows that the credibility of the Federal Reserve in maintaining price stability is crucial. The case of Burns during Nixon's presidency illustrates the risks of political pressure leading to overly accommodative monetary policy, which can create long-term inflationary pressures [3]. - The loss of the Fed's independence and a "stop-and-go" approach to monetary policy could increase the risk of unanchored inflation expectations, making it costly to restore credibility once lost [3]. - The mechanisms designed to ensure the Fed's independence present three significant obstacles for Trump in achieving his rate cut goals [2][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Fundamentals: Last week, the US made progress in tariff trade, reaching tariff agreements with countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan. China and the US will hold the third round of economic and trade consultations, and market risk sentiment has declined, weakening the safe - haven demand for precious metals. However, tariff trade policies still carry risks, leading to an oscillatory adjustment in precious metal prices. US President Trump pressured Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates during a visit to the Fed building for renovation, which raised concerns about the Fed's independence. COMEX gold futures rose and then fell, while COMEX silver futures maintained an oscillatory trend [2]. - Capital: Last week, the inventories of COMEX gold and silver increased. Global gold reserves continued to rise, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold holdings for the eighth consecutive month. The inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased, and hedge funds increased their long - positions in gold and silver [2]. - Strategy: The price of Shanghai gold is bullish in the long - term, continuing to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai silver has a slight upward trend in the short - term, and it is advisable to look for long - entry opportunities. In the medium - term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy when the price drops sharply to the lower edge of the oscillatory range [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Key indicators' price changes: The spot price of London gold decreased by 0.35% to $3343.50 per ounce, COMEX gold futures dropped by 0.51% to $3338.50 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 0.39% to 777.32 yuan per gram. The spot price of London silver increased by 1.22% to $38.74 per ounce, COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.26% to $38.33 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose by 1.28% to 9392 yuan per kilogram [5]. - Gold - silver ratio: The gold - silver ratios of both the domestic and international markets decreased compared to last week, and both continued to repair to around 80 - 85, but were significantly higher than the long - term average of 60 - 70, indicating that the silver price was undervalued. The 50% tariff on copper in the US may drive enterprises to use silver as a substitute, increasing silver demand [10]. - Price spreads between domestic and international markets: The price spreads of gold and silver between domestic and international markets increased compared to last week. Affected by the US tariff trade policy and the Fed's independence, precious metals showed an oscillatory trend [11]. 3.2 Macroeconomics - US dollar index: Trump's continuous pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates has raised concerns about the Fed's independence, causing a slight decline in the US dollar index, which supported the precious metal prices [14]. - US Treasury real yields: Last week, the real yield of the 5 - year US Treasury increased slightly, while that of the 10 - year US Treasury decreased. Affected by the changing expectations of US tariff policies and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metal prices oscillated [17]. - Inflation and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.4% and the expected 2.6%. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 2.8% and slightly lower than the expected 3%. The impact of tariffs on commodity inflation has emerged, but the transmission to service inflation is not significant. The Fed will maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short - term, and the market expects a 62.4% probability of an interest - rate cut in September [22]. - Key US economic data: - PMI: In June, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, slightly higher than the expected 48.8, and the service PMI was 50.8, slightly higher than the expected 50.6 [25]. - Retail sales: In June, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, reversing the decline in May. Core retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.5% month - on - month, exceeding expectations [25]. - Employment data: In June, ADP employment decreased by 33,000, far lower than the expected increase of 95,000. Non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims decreased by 4,000 to 217,000 [31]. - Fed's independence: Trump's visit to the Fed and pressure on Powell to cut interest rates, as well as a lawsuit against the Fed and the criticism from the US Treasury Secretary, have raised concerns about the Fed's independence [34]. - US tariff trade: The US has made progress in tariff trade, but the policy remains uncertain. The US has reached tariff agreements with some countries, and is approaching the August 1 tariff deadline. The 50% tariff on copper may bring positive factors to silver [34]. - Central bank gold purchases: 32% of central banks plan to increase their gold investments in the next 12 - 24 months. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks net - purchased 244 tons of gold. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for eight consecutive months, which supports the price of gold in the long - term [35]. 3.3 Position Analysis - Hedge funds: As of the week ending July 22, 2025, CMX gold speculative net long positions increased by 39,900 lots to 253,000 lots, and CMX silver speculative net long positions increased by 12,000 lots to 60,600 lots [38]. - ETFs: As of July 25, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 13.47 tons to 957.09 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 572.22 tons to 15,230.43 tons, indicating an accelerated inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs [39]. 3.4 Other Elements - Gold and silver inventories: Last week, COMEX gold inventories were 37.7624 million ounces, a 1.53% increase from the previous week, and COMEX silver inventories were 500.3207 million ounces, a 0.62% increase. The 50% tariff on copper may drive up the price of silver due to its industrial demand [43]. - Gold and silver demand: In July 2025, global gold reserves increased by 31.55 tons to 36,305.84 tons, and China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons to 2,296.35 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, global total gold demand increased slightly year - on - year. The global silver deficit is expected to narrow by 21% in 2025, and the industrial demand for silver remains strong [46]. - Key events to watch this week: This week, important events include the third round of China - US economic and trade consultations, the release of US economic data such as PCE, core PCE, and the July non - farm payroll report, the Fed's July interest - rate meeting, and the approaching August 1 tariff deadline [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing tensions surrounding the U.S. economy, particularly focusing on inflation, interest rates, and the implications of political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence, which threaten the dominance of the U.S. dollar [1][10]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, significantly exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [3]. - The June CPI data showed a 2.7% year-on-year increase, marking a four-month high, with notable price increases in clothing, furniture, and household appliances [3]. - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reached 5.01%, indicating rising borrowing costs [1][8]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal divisions, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policies: those advocating for no cuts, those supporting two cuts, and those calling for an immediate cut [8]. - Dallas Fed President Logan warned of stagflation risks and insisted on maintaining high interest rates for at least 6 to 12 months [3]. Political Influence - President Trump publicly demanded a 300 basis point rate cut and hinted at the possibility of dismissing Fed Chair Powell, which led to significant market volatility [5]. - Trump's comments resulted in a surge in gold prices and a drop in the dollar index, reflecting market reactions to potential political interference in monetary policy [5]. Trade and Tariff Impacts - The U.S. government's imposition of a 30% tariff on Mexico has escalated tensions, prompting strong responses from the Mexican government and potential retaliatory measures from the EU [7]. - A survey indicated that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass tariff costs onto consumers, highlighting the broader economic impact of trade policies [3]. Debt and Currency Concerns - The U.S. national debt has reached $37 trillion, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2025, consuming 25% of federal tax revenue [8]. - There is a growing trend of global central banks selling U.S. Treasuries, with predictions that the national debt could exceed $43 trillion by 2028 [8]. - Countries are increasingly exploring alternatives to the dollar, with Brazil's president suggesting trade without using the dollar and the EU accelerating efforts to establish a "de-dollarization" trade network [8].

Core Viewpoint - The visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve marks a significant challenge to the institution's independence, as he pressures for interest rate cuts amid economic concerns [1][3][5]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy is facing pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline in three years [1]. - Consumer spending growth has sharply decreased from 4% in Q4 2024 to 1.8% in Q1 2025, while corporate investment increased by 9.8%, insufficient to offset the negative impacts of rising imports and reduced government spending [1]. Interest Rate Policy - Trump advocates for lowering the benchmark interest rate from the current range of 4.25% to 4.50% down to 1%, claiming it could save over $1 trillion in borrowing costs and stimulate economic growth [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve, led by Powell, is cautious about rate cuts, with the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting expected to maintain current rates while assessing inflation and employment responses to tariff policies [3][5]. Tension Between White House and Federal Reserve - The interaction between Trump and Powell during the visit highlighted the tension, with Powell emphasizing that decisions are based on economic data rather than political pressure [3][6]. - Trump's visit breaks the long-standing tradition of presidential non-interference in Federal Reserve operations, raising concerns about the potential erosion of the institution's independence [3][6]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest Trump's actions are politically motivated, aiming to boost the economy and stock market ahead of the 2025 election [5][8]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for the stability of the U.S. dollar, which has seen a 9% decline since Trump's return to the presidency, with speculative short positions on the dollar reaching a high not seen since October 2024 [5][6]. Global Financial Impact - The ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Federal Reserve could have significant implications for global financial markets, as changes in U.S. monetary policy affect capital flows and currency stability worldwide [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of the stock index is positive, but it may experience a phased adjustment. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. - In the RMB exchange rate market, investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on the progress of China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. - For the container shipping industry, the SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. - In the precious metals market, focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend of gold and silver may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. - For base metals, copper prices may decline slightly; aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term; zinc is in a high - level shock; nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within a certain range; tin prices may decline slightly; lead is mainly in a shock state [8][10][12][13][15][21]. - In the energy and chemical industry, crude oil is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage; PX - PTA can be considered to expand the processing fee at low prices; for other energy and chemical products, pay attention to policy changes and market fundamentals [29][30][33]. - In the black metal market, the over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end; the contradiction in the iron ore market is accumulating; the coal - coke market may return to rationality; for silicon iron and silicon manganese, pay attention to risks [23][24][26][27]. - For agricultural products, the market game for live pigs has intensified [50]. Summaries by Related Catalogs RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1679 at 16:30, down 132 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1680 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.1419, down 34 basis points [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump said the possibility of reaching an agreement with the EU was 50%, and most trade agreements would be reached before August. The Russian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate from 20% to 18% [2]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's independence is being challenged. Investors can use options to hedge tail risks. Focus on China - US trade consultations in the next week [2]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: On Friday, the stock index showed mixed trends, with the large - cap index falling and the small - and medium - cap index rising. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 573.69 billion yuan [3]. - **Important Information**: China's industrial enterprise profits in June decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent supporting role. The State Council executive meeting deployed measures for gradually promoting free pre - school education [3]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index may experience a phased adjustment, but the overall trend is positive. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting this week [3]. Container Shipping - **Market Review**: On Friday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) contracts fluctuated after a sharp decline at the opening. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The freight quotes of Maersk and ONE for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam showed different changes [4]. - **Core Logic**: The SCFI European line has rebounded, but the near - term contracts may have a short - term correction, and the overall may fluctuate slightly downward [5]. Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market showed a reverse V - shaped trend. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased sharply, and there was a large inflow of funds into US gold and silver ETFs at the beginning of the week, but the price reversed on Wednesday [5]. - **Important Information**: The US - Japan and US - EU trade agreements were close to being reached, and the domestic anti - involution policy led to a general rise in commodities and the stock market [5]. - **Core Logic**: Focus on the Fed FOMC meeting and important US economic data this week. The mid - to long - term trend may be bullish, while the short - term volatility is intense [5]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai copper rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory showed different trends in different markets [8]. - **Important Information**: Teck Resources lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine due to tailings storage problems [8]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [9]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The price of Shanghai aluminum showed a slight increase, and the trading volume and positions changed. The price of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding changes [9]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the market sentiment, and the exchange issued a position limit notice [9][10]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, considering the influence of macro events and fundamentals [10]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell slightly, and the trading volume and positions decreased [12]. - **Important Information**: The "anti - involution" sentiment affected the market [12]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc is in a high - level shock. The supply may gradually shift from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. Appropriate short - selling at high prices is recommended [12]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong trend during the week but回调 on Friday night. The price of stainless steel also showed an upward trend during the week [13]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy and relevant news affected the market, and the supply of nickel ore was expected to be loose [14]. - **Core Logic**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the range of [118,000 - 126,000] yuan and [12,500 - 13,100] yuan respectively [15]. Tin - **Market Review**: The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, and the inventory was stable [15]. - **Important Information**: The anti - involution policy affected the price [15]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices may decline slightly as the anti - involution heat fades [16]. Lead - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai lead rose slightly, and the trading volume and positions increased [21]. - **Important Information**: The production of a refinery in Anhui recovered, and a large - scale recycled lead refinery in Inner Mongolia was expected to produce lead next week [21]. - **Core Logic**: Lead is mainly in a shock state, affected by the supply - demand relationship and market sentiment [22]. Energy and Chemical Industry Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Speculative position reduction and inventory increase suppressed oil prices, and the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures fell [29]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced that the US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the Houthi armed forces upgraded the maritime blockade [29]. - **Core Logic**: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment stage. Pay attention to the results of important macro meetings this week [30]. PTA - PX - **Market Review**: PX - PTA was generally strong under the influence of commodity sentiment and polyester demand improvement [30]. - **Important Information**: PX Tianjin Petrochemical carried out maintenance, and there were rumors of PTA plant maintenance in August [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: The PX - TA industry chain has limited fundamental drivers. Consider expanding the processing fee at low prices [32]. Other Energy and Chemical Products - **Market Review and Core Logic**: Each product has different market performances and core logics, mainly affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and market sentiments. For example, MEG - bottle chips are recommended to wait and see; methanol is mainly driven by macro factors; PP and PE are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; PVC is recommended to wait and see in the short term; BZ and styrene are affected by macro emotions and fundamentals; fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have different supply - demand and inventory situations; asphalt follows the cost - end shock; urea is expected to fluctuate weakly; glass and soda ash are affected by anti - involution expectations and fundamentals; pulp is driven by macro emotions;烧碱 focuses on near - month warehouse receipts [32][33][35][37][38][39][41][42][43][44][45][47][48][50]. Black Metal Market Steel - **Market Review**: On Friday night, coking coal hit the daily limit down, and black metal varieties followed suit [23]. - **Important Information**: The profits of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year were announced, and there were price adjustment and position limit news in the coking coal market [23]. - **Core Logic**: The over - heated sentiment in the steel market may lead to a short - term correction, but the rise may not end. Pay attention to the actual demand and tariff policies [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Review**: The price of iron ore has corrected, while coking coal has maintained a strong upward trend [23]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipping volume is at a seasonal high, and the dry bulk freight has increased [24]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of iron ore are okay, but the room for improvement is limited. The contradiction in the market is accumulating, and it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Review**: The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated greatly this week, and the coking coal futures limit on Friday night caused the price to fall [24][26]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke have changed, and the inventory situation is different [25]. - **Core Logic**: The coal - coke market may return to rationality, and pay attention to the Politburo meeting and China - US trade negotiations [26]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rose last week, and they were affected by the anti - involution meeting and the decline of coking coal futures on Friday night [27]. - **Important Information**: The supply and demand, inventory, and profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed [27]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term risk of chasing high is high, and pay attention to the implementation of policies and risk control [28]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Review**: The futures price of live pigs showed a slight increase [50]. - **Important Information**: No specific important information is provided. - **Core Logic**: The market game for live pigs has intensified [50].