Core Insights - Sales of U.S. light vehicles experienced a decline in October due to the expiration of federal government subsidies, which negatively impacted demand for battery-powered electric cars [1] - The easing labor market and potential price increases from tariffs may further restrict any recovery in vehicle sales for the remainder of the year [1] Industry Summary - The expiration of subsidies has led to a decrease in demand for electric vehicles, indicating a potential shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1] - The labor market conditions are showing signs of easing, which could affect consumer confidence and spending in the automotive sector [1] - Anticipated higher prices resulting from tariffs may pose additional challenges for the automotive industry, limiting sales growth [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Order intake grew by 8%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of improvement, reflecting robust demand and disciplined execution [4][5] - Comparable sales growth increased to 3% year-on-year, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding by 50 basis points to 12.3% despite tariff impacts [4][5][24] - Year-to-date order book is up 6% compared to last year, with free cash flow expected to be between EUR 0.2 billion and EUR 0.4 billion for the full year [5][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Personal Health segment saw an 11% increase in comparable sales, driven by strong demand across grooming, oral healthcare, and childcare [21][22] - Connected Care achieved 5% comparable sales growth, supported by strong monitoring solutions, while Diagnostic Imaging experienced a modest decline [20][21] - Diagnosis and Treatment (D&T) comparable sales improved by 1% year-over-year, with Image-Guided Therapy showing solid growth [18][19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - North America remains a key growth driver, with strong demand for hospital patient monitoring solutions and a double-digit order intake growth [6][16] - In China, tender activity is gradually increasing, but centralized procurement is causing longer processing times and tougher competition [17][44] - Capital spending remains stable in Europe and Latin America, while India and Saudi Arabia continue to invest in healthcare and digitization [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving measurable improvements in collaboration with global regulators and reinforcing trust among stakeholders [14] - Continued investment in innovation is expected to fuel growth, with a strong emphasis on AI to enhance productivity across various segments [26] - The company plans to showcase progress under its 2023 to 2025 plan at the upcoming capital markets day in February 2026 [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving full-year commitments, with expectations for comparable sales growth in the range of 1%-3% [30][31] - The impact of tariffs is anticipated to be between EUR 150 million and EUR 200 million for the full year, with ongoing mitigation efforts [24][30] - Management remains cautious about the near-term outlook for China but is optimistic about long-term growth potential [17][44] Other Important Information - The company passed six out of nine FDA inspections with no observations, reflecting progress in quality systems [12][13] - Adjusted diluted EPS from continued operations rose to EUR 0.36, up 13% year-over-year, driven by higher earnings [27] - Free cash flow performance improved significantly, with EUR 172 million reported for the quarter [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Future price hikes and inflation impact - Management indicated that price increases may occur due to inflationary pressures, but growth remains a critical focus [34] Question: Contribution of China to Personal Health sales - Management clarified that there was no restocking effect in China, and broad-based growth was observed across all businesses [35] Question: Maintaining productivity momentum into 2026 - Management expressed confidence in continuing productivity improvements, with a focus on mitigating tariff impacts [36] Question: Order timing in D&T and diagnostic imaging sales outlook - Management noted that order timing is uneven, with expectations for improvement in Q4 [38] Question: Impact of Section 232 on imaging and connected care - Management is actively engaging in discussions regarding tariffs and is preparing to mitigate any potential impacts [40][41] Question: GE's decision to sell its Chinese business - Management highlighted competitive positioning and innovation as key differentiators in the market [49] Question: Currency headwinds for next year - Management expects some currency headwinds in Q4, which will be factored into future guidance [50] Question: Downgrade of D&T sales guidance - Management confirmed that the downgrade is primarily related to China, with longer conversion cycles also impacting sales [54][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views Copper - After the expectations of interest rate cuts and tariff benefits are realized, the short - term driving force is weak, and copper prices oscillated yesterday. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term sharp increases restrain demand. The subsequent focus is on marginal changes in demand and Sino - US tariff situations, with the main contract supported at 86000 - 86500 [1]. Aluminum - Cost support shows signs of bottoming, but the industry's profit space has shrunk significantly, and about 30% of production capacity is facing losses. The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak reality. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a callback to the 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton range [3]. Alumina - It is expected that the alumina price will continue to maintain a weak oscillation. The main contract is expected to be in a weak position. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply in Guinea, domestic environmental policies, and inventory changes [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. The subsequent focus is on scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a squeeze on LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated strongly. In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate strongly, but the fundamentals provide limited upward momentum. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 22300 - 23000 [9]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. The subsequent focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [11]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to oscillate in the range of 118000 - 126000. The subsequent focus is on the RKAB approval in Indonesia in 2026 [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. The subsequent focus is on macro expectations and steel mill supply [14]. Lithium Carbonate - In November, the supply - demand change is expected to be limited. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract reference range of 80000 - 85000 yuan/ton. The current variable lies in whether there will be new information from the mining end [17]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 86840 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 5 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%; in September, the electrolytic copper import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The SMM A00 aluminum price was 21440 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous day; the SMM A00 aluminum premium was 0 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%; the aluminum profile production rate was 53.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.37% [3]. Alumina Price and Spread - The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of alumina in Guangxi was 3010 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day [3]. Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 18.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%; the electrolytic aluminum plant's raw material inventory increased by 2.2 million tons week - on - week [3]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The SMM ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day; the SMM East China ADC12 price was 21400 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.43% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - The SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22350 yuan/ton, up 0.31% from the previous day; the SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 30 yuan/ton [9]. Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%; in September, the refined zinc import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The SMM 1 tin price was 285400 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the SMM 1 tin premium was 500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import volume was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%; the SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [11]. Nickel Price and Basis - The SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122000 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2600 yuan/ton, up 1.96% from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%; the refined nickel import volume was 38164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12800 yuan/ton, down 0.78% from the previous day; the 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) price was 12900 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 81000 yuan/ton, up 0.56% from the previous day; the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 78800 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%; the lithium carbonate demand was 126961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（10.27~10.31） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落，沪铜主力合约下跌0.71%，收报于87010元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，刺激铜价大涨。国内 方面，消费旺季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。 库存方面，铜库存LME库存134625吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增11348吨至116140吨。 期货主力 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 PMI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 4, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and livestock. It also analyzes the fundamental data and macro - industry news of each commodity, and gives the trend strength ratings for each commodity. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Attention should be paid to risks in US banks. The trend strength is 0. The price of Comex gold 2512 was 4013.70 with a 0.01% increase [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. The trend strength is 1. The price of Comex silver 2512 was 47.910 with a - 0.70% decrease [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: A decrease in LME inventory restricts price decline. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 87,300 with a 0.33% increase [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to run strongly. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,565 with a 0.94% increase [2][12]. - **Lead**: A continuous decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,420 with a 0.17% increase [2][15]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 285,760 with a 0.65% increase [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,600 with a 300 increase compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: There is support at the bottom. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2789 with a - 4 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support. The trend strength is 0. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,950 with a 360 increase compared to T - 1 [2][26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level. The trend strength is 0. The price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,630 with a - 25 decrease compared to T - 1 [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related**: - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the futures valuation is high [2][49]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [2][53]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There was a short - term adjustment in the night session, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continued to rise [2][53]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Demand is acceptable, but supply pressure still exists, and it is in a high - level volatile market [2][28]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost has collapsed, and it is running weakly [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It fluctuates following crude oil [2][34]. - **LLDPE**: Unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure [2][36]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [2][37]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cost provides support, and it is in a volatile market [2][38]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][40]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][42]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to run weakly [2][43]. - **Urea**: It is under pressure and fluctuating [2][45]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly [2][47]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][48]. Agricultural Products and Livestock - **Oils and Fats**: - **Palm Oil**: There is a lack of driving factors, and short - term support should be noted [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybeans has rebounded, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil is expected to widen [2][61]. - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans have reached a new high, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound [2][63]. - **Soybean**: The start of state - reserve purchases has stabilized the market [2][63]. - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate [2][65]. - **Sugar and Cotton**: - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound adjustment [2][66]. - **Cotton**: The impact of the price of seed cotton on cotton futures has weakened [2][67]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: - **Eggs**: They are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2][69]. - **Pigs**: The price center has further declined [2][70]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][71].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that the slowdown in job growth is related to changes in labor supply, and tariffs continue to exert upward pressure on prices, with inflation remaining high and facing upward risks [1] Group 1 - Job growth is slowing down due to changes in labor supply [1] - Tariffs are contributing to increased price pressures [1] - Inflation remains elevated and is subject to upward risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The legal challenge by Rick Wattenberg against the president's tariffs could significantly impact the implementation of tariffs in the U.S. and potentially lead to over $100 billion in refunds for affected businesses [3][5][8]. Group 1: Company Impact - Rick Wattenberg leads two educational toy businesses that manufacture most of their products in China, making them vulnerable to tariffs [1][2]. - The company has faced challenges in adjusting production lines in response to tariff changes, leading to financial strain [2]. - The CEO of the company indicated that they have raised prices in the middle single digits due to inflationary pressures caused by tariffs [9]. Group 2: Legal and Economic Implications - The Supreme Court case revolves around the interpretation of a statute that grants the president emergency powers, which has been used to impose approximately 60% of current tariffs [4][5]. - A ruling against the president could invalidate many tariffs, complicating future tariff implementations and potentially easing inflationary pressures [5][8]. - The case is seen as a familiar legal issue for the Supreme Court, focusing on the statutory language regarding the president's authority to regulate importation [6][7].

Economic Overview - The government shutdown has led to a lack of federal data, prompting the use of alternative data sources to assess the economy [1] - The Intuit QuickBooks small business index indicates a decline of over 24,000 jobs in businesses with nine or fewer employees, representing a monthly decrease of approximately 1% [2] Small Business Performance - Despite employment weakness, small business revenue increased by 1.9%, with average monthly revenue per business nearing $51,000 [3] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The ISM manufacturing index for October registered at 48.7%, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month [3] - Although prices paid decreased, inflation remains a concern, with tariffs causing unpredictability in future pricing and costs [4][5] - Demand indicators have shown slight improvements but remain in contraction, with production experiencing a significant drop [6][7] Employment Trends - The ratio of comments regarding hiring versus layoffs is concerning, with a shift from 1:3 to 1:3.4 in favor of layoffs [7][8] - Manufacturing GDP in strong contraction increased from 28% to 41%, indicating worsening conditions [8] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are reportedly delaying orders due to concerns over higher prices, impacting demand across various sectors [9][10] - The hope for reshoring manufacturing has not materialized as expected, leading to indecision among businesses [11] Sector-Specific Developments - The transportation equipment industry has finally moved to the expanding list after months of contraction, although customer ordering remains low [12][13] - There is a notable pattern across sectors regarding economic policy comments, indicating widespread concern [14]

American manufacturers contracted for the eighth month in a row, a new survey showed, and there appeared to be no end in sight because of high Trump administration tariffs. ...

Core Insights - The United States is set to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50% in June 2025, impacting the global packaging industry significantly [1] Rising Metal Costs - The increase in tariffs is expected to drive up consumer prices, as seen in previous tariff implementations where prices for canned goods rose noticeably [2] - A midsized US can producer reported a nearly 33% increase in aluminium sheet costs since the new duties took effect, leading to anticipated price hikes for customers in early 2026 [3] Supply Chain Adjustments - Packaging firms are exploring alternatives to imported metals, such as flexible pouches made from recycled materials, particularly for sauces and pet food [4] - Some companies are shifting towards nearshore production, with North American suppliers investing in local steel rolling mills to reduce reliance on overseas inputs [5] Mergers and Acquisitions - The uncertain tariff landscape has accelerated mergers and acquisitions in the packaging sector, with larger companies acquiring smaller firms to enhance supply chains and sustainable product offerings [6] - Private equity investors are focusing on companies with strong automation and sustainability practices, driven by new regulations like Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) in the UK [7]