Macro Insights - The U.S. job market is cooling more than expected, with inflationary pressures still rising; tariffs have been adjusted, leading to increased tariffs on certain countries in August [2][3] - July's manufacturing PMI showed a marginal decline, indicating that previous "anti-involution" policies may have suppressed overproduction in some sectors, affecting industrial product prices [3][4] Strategy Insights - The recent market adjustments present structural opportunities, particularly in sectors with improving conditions and low valuations, such as technology and consumer electronics [4][5] - Focus on sectors with strong earnings recovery and potential for rebound, including storage chips, optical fibers, and robotics [3][4] Company-Specific Insights - Apple reported Q3 FY25 revenue of $94 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, with net profit of $23.4 billion, reflecting a 12% increase; service revenue grew by 13% [12][15] - Xiaocaiyuan expects a net profit of 360-380 million yuan for H1 2025, a 29%-36% increase year-over-year, driven by operational efficiency and store expansion [14] - Nine Company reported H1 revenue of 11.742 billion yuan, a 76.14% increase year-over-year, with net profit growing by 108.45% [19] Fixed Income Insights - The recent changes in tax policy regarding bond interest income are expected to have a limited impact on insurance funds, with an estimated yield impact of about 12 basis points [12] - The bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with a focus on maintaining a flexible approach to operations and potential opportunities in credit bonds [10][11] Sector Performance Insights - The TMT and financial real estate ETFs saw increased allocations in the second quarter, indicating a shift towards more aggressive and defensive investment strategies [5][6] - The overall performance of valuation and surprise factors in July was positive, with growth and profitability factors showing mixed results across different stock pools [8][9] Energy Sector Insights - Cameco's investment logic is strengthened by recent developments in the U.S. power market, with an upward revision of its 2025 profit forecast to CAD 695 million [16] - First Solar's Q2 revenue reached $1.097 billion, benefiting from a surge in demand due to policy changes, maintaining a positive outlook for the next few years [17] Technology Sector Insights - The focus on AI advancements and tariff impacts remains critical for companies like Apple, with expectations for Chinese firms to close the gap in innovation [12][15] - The overall sentiment in the technology sector is influenced by macroeconomic factors and competitive dynamics, with a cautious outlook on future demand [12][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data has severely hit the financial market, causing a notable decline in oil prices. The OPEC+ meeting on the weekend decided to continue increasing production in September, completely canceling the previous 2.2 million barrels per day production cut, which restricts the subsequent upward space of oil prices. In the short term, crude oil will oscillate at a low level. Currently, most of the negative news has been released. In the future, attention should be paid to the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs during the week and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. There is a possibility that the US may impose sanctions on Russian energy, triggering a round of upward movement due to geopolitical concerns. The short - term trading range is between 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: US trade representative indicated that Trump's tariffs on dozens of countries may continue. US July employment growth was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. OPEC+ agreed to increase crude oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September [3]. - **Basis**: On August 1st, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.99 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $73.06 per barrel. The basis was 18.53 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25th increased by 1.539 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 7.698 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.288 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 690,000 barrels. As of August 1st, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 5.249 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 29th, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term trading range is 510 - 515, and long - term investors can add positions on dips [3]. 2. Recent News - OPEC+ reached an agreement at a video conference on Sunday to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September, marking the early completion of the exit from the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut plan implemented by eight member countries in 2023. The meeting lasted only 16 minutes. The organization will retain the option to re - evaluate the suspension of about 1.66 million barrels per day of production, depending on market conditions. OPEC+ has scheduled a follow - up meeting on September 7th [5]. - US President Trump's new round of tariffs on dozens of trading partners caused a global stock market crash on Friday. The new tariffs will take effect on August 7th at 04:01 GMT [5]. - US July employment growth was weaker than expected, with the non - farm payrolls of the previous two months revised down by 258,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, the labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, and the year - on - year wage increase remained at a high of 3.9% [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and summer demand is starting to increase [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased. The decline rates were - 2.83%, - 2.79%, - 0.73%, and - 2.81% respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil all decreased, with decline rates ranging from - 1.87% to - 2.79% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories in the US increased in the week ending July 25th [3][10][13]. 5. Position Data - As of July 29th, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil increased [3][17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The recent market adjustments were primarily driven by expectations of secondary tariffs due to U.S. sanctions on Russia, alongside a strong performance in major A-share stocks, particularly in the banking and resource sectors [1][5]. Market Performance - On August 4, the A50 index experienced a sharp rise, with significant contributions from major banks such as Agricultural Bank of China, which rose over 2%, and other banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Qingdao Bank also showing gains [1][3]. - The performance of the bond market was notably strong, influenced by a new tax policy on bond interest income announced by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, which led to a wave of buying in existing bonds [1][5]. Economic Factors - The market's previous adjustments were linked to ongoing tariff issues and the U.S. sanctions on Russia, which have created uncertainty in trade relations [4][5]. - The U.S. dollar index saw fluctuations, with a significant drop following disappointing U.S. employment data, which positively impacted cyclical assets [4][5]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market may experience a period of volatility in early August due to earnings disclosures, with potential adjustments in stocks that have seen significant gains [7][8]. - There is an expectation that the market will transition from a phase of profit-taking to a focus on growth potential, with the possibility of new highs later in August as earnings reports confirm improvements in free cash flow for listed companies [8].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. economy showed resilience in Q2 with a GDP growth rate rebounding to 3.0% on a quarter-over-quarter annualized basis, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 2% [3][4][5] - The report highlights a significant drop in non-farm employment numbers for July, with only 73,000 jobs added, down from a revised 147,000 in June, indicating a potential weakening in the labor market [16][22] - The report notes that the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the PCE index, has increased, with personal consumption expenditures rising from 4.66% to 4.75% year-over-year, suggesting some resilience in consumer spending [15][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the impact of tariff policies, indicating that the average effective tariff in the U.S. may rise to around 17% following the implementation of the latest tariffs, which could lead to an increase in inflation and a decrease in GDP growth [27][24] - The report mentions that the U.S. stock market has experienced volatility, with major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ seeing declines of 2.92%, 2.36%, and 2.17% respectively, reflecting market concerns over economic data [29][2] - The report suggests that the healthcare sector is one of the few areas showing positive performance in the Hong Kong stock market, while sectors like materials and technology are facing declines [2]

螺矿产业链月报 汪楠 从业资格号：F3069002 投资咨询号：Z0017123 中航期货 2025-8-1 04 后市研判 目录 01 行情回顾 03 供需分析 02 宏观分析 行情PA回RT顾01 钢材：本月现货价格修复，基差走阔 行情PA回RT顾01 铁矿：现货价格上涨，基差进一步收敛 美国与贸易伙伴谈判取得进展，但后续仍存不确定性 宏观PA分RT析02 Ø 美国与贸易伙伴谈判取得进展，预期乐观：当地时间7月7日，美国总统特朗普签署行政命令，延长所谓"对等关税"暂缓期，将实施时间 从7月9日推迟到8月1日。美国将对等关税推迟至8月1日，市场预期美国及其贸易伙伴之间将达成贸易协议，这提振了风险情绪。 Ø 美国总统特朗普在社交平台宣布，美国分别与菲律宾和印尼达成了贸易协定。特朗普称，将菲律宾商品关税从20%下调至19%。菲律宾将对 美国开放市场，并实行零关税。印尼将对美国取消99%的关税壁垒。而印尼出口到美国的所有产品则需缴纳19%的关税。此外，印尼将向美国供 应其珍贵的关键矿产，并签署价值数百亿美元的重大协议，采购波音飞机、美国农产品和美国能源。特朗普表示，将对世界其他大部分国家征 收15%至50%的简单 ...

美国在瑞士国庆日（8月1日）意外地宣布对瑞士征收全欧洲大陆最高关税，瑞士股市周一开盘大概率将受关税消息冲击。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署行政令，确定了对多个国家和地区征收的“对等关税”税率，具体税率从10%至41%不等，其中对瑞士征收39%的关税。 https://t.co/whZKuBskQe ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the U.S. is moving forward with a new round of tariffs on multiple countries, which has implications for trade relations and market stability [1][2][3] - U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer stated that the new tariffs, including 35% on Canadian goods, 50% on Brazilian goods, 25% on Indian goods, and 39% on Swiss goods, are "basically set" and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [2][3] - President Trump criticized the former Labor Statistics Bureau chief, Erica McEntyre, for allegedly inflating employment data before the election and subsequently revising it down by nearly 1 million jobs, which he termed a "scam" [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, as evidenced by the July unemployment rate rising and non-farm payrolls underperforming market expectations [4] - The Labor Department's recent data revision for May and June, which significantly lowered previously reported job numbers, has led to strong dissatisfaction from the Trump administration, resulting in the dismissal of McEntyre [4]

Core Viewpoint - Apple's FY3Q25 revenue and profit exceeded expectations, with a notable performance in iPhone, Mac, and services, marking the strongest quarterly revenue growth since FY1Q22 [3] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY3Q25 revenue reached $94.04 billion, a year-over-year increase of 10%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $89.3 billion [3] - Gross margin for the quarter was 46.5%, at the upper end of the previous guidance of 45.5%-46.5%, primarily due to lower-than-expected tariff impacts [3] - Net profit for FY3Q25 was $23.43 billion, a year-over-year increase of 9.3%, with basic EPS of $1.57, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $1.43 [3] Group 2: Future Guidance - For FY4Q25, Apple expects mid-to-high single-digit year-over-year revenue growth, which is above market expectations [4] - The company anticipates service revenue growth to remain around 13%, similar to FY3Q25, assuming stable global tariff policies and no significant macroeconomic deterioration [4] - Projected gross margin for the next quarter is between 46%-47%, despite an expected $1.1 billion increase in costs due to tariffs [4] Group 3: iPhone Performance - FY3Q25 iPhone revenue was $44.58 billion, a year-over-year increase of 13%, significantly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $40.22 billion [5] - Global iPhone shipments for 2Q25 were 46.4 million units, a year-over-year increase of 1.5%, outperforming the overall smartphone market [5] - The growth in iPhone revenue was driven by preemptive consumer demand due to tariff concerns and strong sales of the iPhone 16 series, particularly in the Greater China region, which saw a 4% year-over-year revenue increase [5]

当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普与欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩在苏格兰举行了会晤。会后，特朗普表 示，美国已与欧盟达成新贸易协议，对欧盟输美商品征收15%的关税。 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩称，15%税率是欧委会能够达成的最佳结果。此外，钢铁和铝、芯片、烈酒三 大关键领域的关税协议仍待定。 而且以法德为代表的欧盟诸国，一直是想脱离美国的掌控，与美国进行对等谈判。之前在支援乌克兰问 题上，特朗普单方面和俄罗斯谈，断供乌克兰。但欧盟不认这个邪，单方面支援乌克兰，结果乌克兰也 没崩溃，照样打下去了。 理论上如今在关税问题上，欧盟也效仿中国，对美国丝毫不让，那结果或许也会博得一个公平的关税税 率。但冯德莱恩此次对美谈判，直接"缴械投降"，15%的关税虽说不算离谱，但也是凭空白给美国人的 利润。而且后面的附加条件更是要人老命。 但这还没完，特朗普称："欧盟还承诺购买美国7500亿美元的能源产品，并在美追加投资6000亿美元。 此外，欧盟将大规模购买美国军事装备"。 这就是冯德莱恩和特朗普谈后的欧盟与美国对等关税谈判结果。结果出来后，欧盟各国领导人瞬间坐不 住了，直接开喷。 匈牙利总理欧尔班在28日播出的网络节目中表示，欧盟与美 ...

Market Performance - U.S. stock indices collectively fell over 2% this week, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq down 2.36%, 2.92%, and 2.17% respectively[11] - The German DAX, London FTSE 100, Nikkei 225, and Korea Composite Index also experienced declines of 3.27%, 0.57%, 1.58%, and 2.40% respectively[11] Economic Data - Non-farm payroll data was significantly below expectations, with a downward revision of 258,000 jobs in the previous two months, leading to increased concerns about economic momentum[5] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, consistent with expectations, primarily influenced by immigration effects[5] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, with a cautious stance on potential rate cuts in September, dropping the probability of a cut below 40% initially[29] - Following the disappointing non-farm data, market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September surged to 80.3%, with predictions for three rate cuts in total this year[29] Currency and Bond Market - The U.S. dollar index rose by 1.04% over the week, while the euro and Chinese yuan fell by 1.32% and 0.11% respectively[11] - U.S. Treasury yields saw significant declines, with the 2-year yield down 22 basis points and the 10-year yield down 17 basis points by August 1[12] Commodity Market - Gold prices increased by 0.93% amid rising inflation concerns due to tariffs, while copper prices plummeted by 23.88% following a 50% tariff announcement on certain copper products[13] - WTI crude oil prices rose by 3.37% during the week[13] Trade and Tariff Developments - President Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on various imports, with a 40% transit tax on transshipped goods, effective August 7[34] - Tariff concerns have heightened market volatility and investor caution, impacting overall market sentiment[11]