今年以来，政策协同发力与市场内生动力共振，中国经济运行在复杂多变的环境中展现韧性和活力，勾 勒出一幅稳中有进的发展图景。站在年中时点，本报推出"年中经济面面观"系列报道，从消费、投资、 外贸、产业、市场等维度展现上半年经济发展态势，并前瞻下半年的机遇和挑战。 2025年上半年，我国扩内需政策全面加码，成为推动经济稳健前行的关键动力。消费品以旧换新政策效 果持续显现，服务消费需求显著增长，新型消费不断涌现；随着地方政府专项债券和超长期特别国债加 快发行使用，"两重"建设加快推进，基础设施投资平稳增长。 专家认为，扩内需政策在消费与投资两端协同发力，为经济持续回升向好筑牢根基。面对外部不稳定不 确定因素的影响，在持续扩大高水平对外开放的同时，扩大内需尤其是提振和扩大消费将成为下半年乃 至"十五五"时期的必然选择。 政策工具激发消费活力 消费相关政策涉及的消费类目更加细化，产业发展路径日益明晰。从智能消费、绿色消费、健康消费等 新型消费，到银发经济、体育经济、冰雪经济、IP经济、首发经济等新业态新模式，众多消费新概念活 跃于政策文件中，展现出消费新需求与新供给的强大脉动。 金融支持消费的力度显著加大。《指导意见》明 ...

高培勇认为，在宏观经济分析过程中，至少要处理好三个方面的关系，可简单概括为"三兼"。 在证券时报社第十六届上市公司投资者关系管理论坛暨2025中国城市发展新质生产力巡礼走进扬州活动 中，中国社科院原副院长、学部委员高培勇围绕"将预期因素纳入宏观经济分析进程"做了深度分享。 "在需求、供给、预期三者结合的基础上做宏观经济分析，事实上要求我们把预期因素放在更加突出的 位置。"高培勇在论坛上提到，对于中国经济发展，只有企业和居民的预期稳定了、信心增强了，消费 需求和投资需求不足的问题才能随之减轻，源自需求和供给两侧的矛盾和问题才能随之化解，"只有这 样，经济回升向好的态势才会有坚实的基础。" 第三个"兼"，就是要兼容改革与政策两个系统。"宏观调控实际上是双引擎的：一个是政策调整，一个 是改革的行动。"高培勇表示，从历史上看，在经济下行压力突出的背景下，政策调整以增支、减税、 降准降息和增加货币供应量为主。但在加入预期因素之后的宏观经济分析框架中，就必须让政策调整和 改革行动同频共振，两个系统都不可或缺。当前内需不振和预期偏弱交织叠加，既要通过政策调整有效 解决短期的问题，又需立足于改革的行动，致力于解决长期的问题。 ...

金十数据整理：6月25日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 1. 李强出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛工商界代表座谈会。 2. 何立峰在河北调研时指出，积极扩大内需提振消费，更好推动经济高质量发展。 3. 神舟二十号航天员乘组将于近日择机实施第二次出舱活动。 国内新闻： 1. 北约峰会期间特朗普会见泽连斯基。 2. 美国5月新屋销售跌至七个月低点。 3. 美股科技七巨头指数抹去2025年跌幅。 4. 以色列认为美以袭击对伊朗核设施造成"非常严重"的破坏。 5. 北约盟国同意提高国防开支目标至GDP的5%，重申集体防御承诺。 6. 美国交易所与监管机构就减轻上市公司监管负担进行讨论。 7. 美联储柯林斯：今年晚些时候可能降息，但取决于关税影响。 8. 哈塞特：若各国达成贸易协议，则可取消特朗普税收法案中的"报复税"。 国际新闻： 9. 特朗普：我们认为伊朗与以色列之间的战争已经结束。不会放弃对伊朗的制裁；没有必要与伊朗达成 协议；下周美方将与伊朗会谈。以色列-伊朗冲突可能会再次爆发。将与俄罗斯总统普京会谈，讨论结 束俄乌冲突事宜。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China, along with several government departments, has issued guidelines to enhance financial support for consumption, aiming to stimulate demand and improve the macroeconomic environment [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - The guidelines emphasize the need to strengthen structural monetary policy tools and increase credit support for key service consumption areas, while also developing diversified financing channels such as bonds and equity [1][2]. - The focus is on expanding the scope of financial support beyond traditional durable goods like housing and automobiles to include a wider range of consumption scenarios, reflecting a comprehensive approach to boosting domestic demand [2][4]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate financial products tailored to consumer needs, enhancing the quality and efficiency of financial services in the consumption sector [1][3]. Group 2: Long-term Mechanisms and Structural Reforms - The guidelines advocate for a shift from short-term stimulus measures to long-term mechanisms that provide sustainable support for consumption, addressing income distribution and social security reforms [3][5]. - There is a call for the development of personal pension products and commercial insurance innovations to enhance consumer confidence and meet diverse health and retirement needs [3][5]. - The necessity of improving the social security system is highlighted as a critical factor in increasing consumer willingness and credit acceptance, thereby unlocking consumption potential [2][3]. Group 3: Market Implications and Challenges - The issuance of these guidelines is seen as a positive step that could drive innovation in consumer credit products and support consumption growth [2][4]. - However, the effectiveness of these financial measures will depend on overcoming traditional monetary transmission limitations and ensuring that financial support effectively reaches diverse consumer scenarios [4][5]. - The guidelines suggest that financial resources must be allocated more equitably and efficiently to achieve stable long-term growth in consumption, which is essential for economic transformation [5].

策 略 研 究 太 平 2025 年 06 月 25 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.06.25）：价波同涨，年内新高 相关研究报告 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 破>>--2025-06-24 动>>--2025-06-23 <<策略日报（2025.06.20）缩量下 跌>>--2025-06-20 整>>--2025-06-19 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190525050001 大类资产跟踪 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.06.24 ） 突 <<策略日报（2025.06.23）反者道之 债券市场利率债高开低走，股债跷跷板效应延续。股市方面上证指 数放量突破颈线压制，且呈均线排列结构，虽然基本面的疲弱仍将支撑债 市，但股市若继续走强仍将压制债市表现，预计债市后续将高位震荡运行。 后续展望：股市大盘突破，债市预计高位震荡。 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 << 策 略 日 报 （ 2025.06.19 ） 调 证券分析师：张冬冬 股票市场：指数向上变 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects China's GDP growth rate to reach 5.2% in the first half of this year, with potential for upward revision [1] - The shift in macroeconomic growth momentum from export-driven to policy-driven domestic demand is becoming evident, particularly with policies like the trade-in program for consumer goods [1] - The Chinese government plans to issue a total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new debt this year, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, which will support economic growth [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties and high base effects from last year may require further macroeconomic policy adjustments in the second half to achieve the annual growth target of 5% [2] - The central bank is expected to implement another round of "double cuts" (reducing reserve requirements and interest rates) in the fourth quarter, with potential for two more rate cuts next year [2] - The consumer goods trade-in policy has already generated sales of 1.1 trillion yuan this year, nearing last year's total, indicating strong policy impact [2] Group 3 - Government consumption is projected to improve significantly this year, with an expected growth rate of 5% [3] - The central government has reserved sufficient fiscal tools to respond to potential uncertainties, allowing for support in case of a decline in durable goods consumption [3] - Investment remains a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with a framework assessing policy effectiveness based on funding, projects, and official incentives [3]

Group 1: Policy and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China and five other departments issued guidelines to support consumption, outlining 19 specific measures to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate demand [1] - The guidelines aim to inject vitality into the consumer finance market and provide robust financial support for the implementation of domestic demand expansion strategies [1] - Consumer finance is recognized as a crucial component of the consumption environment, with financial institutions actively developing consumer finance products like credit cards to boost market activity [1][2] Group 2: Evolution of Consumer Finance - The consumer finance sector in China has evolved over 40 years, transitioning from the issuance of the first credit card in 1985 to a more regulated and mature industry with 31 licensed companies [2] - The industry has shifted from extensive growth to refined operations, leveraging technologies such as AI, big data, and blockchain to enhance risk control and service experience [2] Group 3: Strategic Role of Consumer Finance - Consumer finance is positioned as a key driver in the domestic demand expansion strategy, providing credit services to retail consumers and facilitating consumption upgrades [3] - The sector is expected to support not only traditional goods consumption but also service, green, and digital consumption, fostering a positive cycle between consumption and industrial upgrades [3] Group 4: Scene-based Financial Solutions - Scene-based finance has emerged as a critical strategy for consumer finance companies to differentiate themselves by embedding financial services into various consumption scenarios [4] - Companies like Zhongyuan Consumer Finance have successfully implemented scene-based financial solutions, significantly enhancing customer engagement and market activity [4] Group 5: Case Study of Haier Consumer Finance - Haier Consumer Finance, as the first industrial consumer finance company, has effectively integrated financial services into various sectors, covering over 11,000 merchants and serving 3 million users [5] - The company has developed a unique B2B2C model, extending its services to everyday consumer needs, thereby driving consumption and supporting the real economy [5] Group 6: Financing Strategies - The guidelines encourage the diversification of consumer financing channels, allowing companies to enhance their customer acquisition and risk management capabilities [7] - Companies are increasingly utilizing various financing methods, including bank loans and asset-backed securities, to meet their funding needs and reduce costs [7][8] Group 7: Industry Transformation - The consumer finance industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by policy guidance, innovative service models, and diversified financing strategies [8] - This evolution is essential for addressing market challenges and enhancing the industry's role in supporting the real economy, positioning consumer finance as a vital engine for high-quality economic development [8]

重点关注 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 研究员: 廖宏斌 6/27 9:30 中国5月规模以上工业企业利润 6/27 20:30 美国5月PCE、核心PCE 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 股指期货全景日报 2025/6/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2509） | 最新 3922.8 | 环比 数据指标 +74.2↑ IF次主力合约（2507） | 最 ...

为完善扩大消费长效机制，中国人民银行、国家发展改革委等六部门于近日联合印发了《关于金融支持 提振和扩大消费的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》）。 业内人士表示，《意见》既着眼于短期消费复苏，也致力于通过金融创新引领消费结构升级，为提振市 场信心、畅通经济循环描绘了清晰的金融路线图；六部门携手形成政策合力，也有助于充分释放居民消 费潜力，促进消费领域的高质量发展。 ——从需求激发到供给升级六部门统筹协调形成合力 当前，外部环境剧烈变化，我国经济正在加速向以内需为主导的增长模式转型。而提振消费也已经成为 扩内需、稳增长的关键点。 为了更好满足消费领域的金融服务需求，《意见》从支持增强消费能力、扩大消费领域金融供给、挖掘 释放居民消费潜力等六个方面提出19项重点举措。 在中信证券首席经济学家明明看来，《意见》精准回应了当前内需不足的核心挑战，通过增强居民消费 能力、挖掘以旧换新等消费潜力、优化供给效能及改善消费环境等供需两端的积极部署，亮出了金融支 持消费的"组合拳"。 "此次政策的亮点在于，其系统性思维和多维协同，不仅覆盖从需求激发到供给升级的全链条，更强调 与设备更新、绿色低碳等国家战略的衔接。" 明明还提到，尤为 ...

股票市场对经济数据的变化一向敏感，但今年6月似乎是个例外。 从刚刚披露的5月经济数据来看，相比前四个月，大部分领域如社融增速、服务消费、就业数据等均呈 现出边际改善的趋势，结果却撞上了资本市场的冷眼旁观。 原因也许并不复杂：当经济发展要向消费转型已经形成一种宏观共识，持续疲软的CPI6月同比-0.1%， 仍然未见起色，按兵不动也就成为了当前这种混沌状态下，许多人的稳妥选项。 2022年中央经济工作会议定调宏观经济的主要矛盾是" 有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏 弱、风险隐患仍然较多 "。而过去这三年，内外部环境发生的所有变化也的确验证了判断，的确看对了 病症。 问题只是，人们还要等待多久才能看到再通胀的拐点到来？ 年初的分歧 去年9月份之后，政策明确转向。但影响通胀的因素实在太多，所以在岁末年初之际，市场对于2025年 的通胀预期仍然分歧很大。 无论是出口还是内需，宏观分析师们都有不同意见 。 其中，最谨慎的可能要属李迅雷。 在去年末发布的《聚焦最终需求——2025年中国经济展望》中，李迅雷预测，2025年物价低位运行趋势 将延续， 全年 CPI 同比甚至将从2024年的0.3%进一步下降到-0.1 ...