Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, both industrial and service sector production achieved rapid growth, but domestic demand remains weak and external demand has declined, indicating a need for further optimization of the supply-demand structure [1][2] - The industrial added value growth rate for January-February was 5.9%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 5.1%, driven mainly by the transportation equipment, metal products, and equipment manufacturing sectors [3][4] - Investment growth in January-February significantly surpassed market expectations, primarily due to strong infrastructure investment performance, while manufacturing investment showed resilience and real estate investment's decline narrowed [14][25] Production Insights - The industrial added value growth was supported by "promoting consumption" and "grabbing exports," with manufacturing sector performance particularly strong in January-February [3][4] - The service sector also maintained a high growth rate, with modern service industries showing particularly good performance [3][4] - However, high-frequency data and tariff impacts suggest that both industrial and service sectors may face weakening pressures in the future [3][4] Investment Analysis - Total investment, infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment in January-February were 4.1%, 9.9%, 9.0%, and -9.8% respectively, showing significant improvements compared to the same period last year [14][25] - The strong performance of narrow infrastructure investment was attributed to the proactive commencement of major projects post-Spring Festival and good progress in the issuance of special bond funds [14][25] - Manufacturing investment is expected to improve in the second quarter of 2025, driven by the continuation of equipment renewal policies and marginal improvements in PPI [14][25] Consumption Trends - In January-February, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 837.31 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.0%, slightly below the market expectation of 4.5% [25] - The growth rate of commodity retail was recorded at 3.9%, while catering revenue growth increased to 4.3%, reflecting improved consumption during the Spring Festival [25] - Future consumption support is anticipated from the recovery of housing prices and stock markets, increased social security income, and the continuation of "old-for-new" policies [25]

图1：1-2月进、出口同比增速大幅下行 资料来源：Macrobond、招商银行研究院 一、出口：增速下行，仍有韧性 2025年1-2月，我国进出口金额同比增速双双下行，出口保持韧性，进口大幅回落，贸易顺差同比保持高 速增长。按美元计价，进出口总金额9,093.7亿美元，累计同比下降2.4%。其中，出口5,399.4亿美元，同 比2.3%；进口3,694.3亿美元，同比-8.4%；贸易顺差1,705.2亿美元，同比扩张460.1亿美元（+36.9%）。 1-2月出口金额累计同比增速较去年12月大幅下行8.4pct至2.3%，基数效应和工作日天数减少是主因。 从 出口商品和地区情况看，美国关税政策的影响尚不明显。一方面，1-2月我国出口数据仅涉及2月4日美对 华进口商品加征10%全面关税的影响，该关税政策生效时间较短，且正值春节，对部分企业的出口冲击或 尚未完全体现；另一方面，近年我国对美出口依赖度下降，叠加产业链转移重构，可部分缓解关税冲击。 此外，海外制造业景气度稳定恢复及"抢出口"行为或形成支撑。 分商品看，部分原材料以及多数下游消费品增速下行，机电产品、以及高新技术产品增速保持较快增长。 钢材、铝材、成品 ...