Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance is neutral but cautious, with over half of the respondents perceiving the current economic situation as stable [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Sentiment - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][9]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% consider it "cold" [5]. - The entrepreneur's macroeconomic heat index stands at 26.0%, which is a decrease from the previous quarter [5]. - The perception of product sales prices and raw material purchase prices remaining stable is reported by 71.2% and 75.5% of entrepreneurs, respectively [7]. Group 2: Banker Sentiment - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is recorded at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% of bankers viewing the macroeconomic performance as normal [11]. - The bankers' sentiment towards monetary policy is positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative [14]. - The bankers' macroeconomic heat expectation index for the third quarter is 37.3%, indicating a more optimistic outlook compared to the second quarter [11]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - The urban residents' survey indicates a cautious outlook on employment, with 51.5% perceiving the job market as severe [17]. - Approximately 69.7% of residents believe their income situation remains unchanged in the second quarter [16]. - The top spending intention among residents for the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [19]. Group 4: Economic Policy and Market Response - The central bank has implemented a series of monetary and financial policies to stabilize the economy, which has positively impacted market confidence [12]. - The overall demand for loans has decreased compared to the previous quarter, reflecting a cautious lending environment [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 30, 2025. It is expected that stock index futures will show a relatively strong oscillation, while some commodity futures such as polycrystalline silicon, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, coking coal, glass, soda ash, alumina, and crude oil futures will oscillate with an upward tendency. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate weakly [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - Stock index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, with specific resistance and support levels provided [2][19]. - Ten - year treasury bond futures T2509 and thirty - year treasury bond futures TL2509 are likely to oscillate weakly on July 30, 2025, and will test support levels [2][39]. - Gold (AU2510), silver (AG2510), copper (CU2509), and other commodity futures are expected to oscillate strongly on July 30, 2025, and will attack resistance levels [2][3]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - During the Sino - US economic and trade talks from July 28 - 29, the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days [7]. - The IMF significantly raised China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 4.8% and for 2026 to 4.2%. The global economic growth forecast for 2025 was raised to 3% [10]. - US economic data: In June, the US commodity trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% month - on - month; in May, the S&P/CS20 major city house price index and FHFA house price index had different changes; in June, JOLTS job openings were 743.7 million, less than expected [11]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - Most domestic commodity futures rose in night trading. Black series such as coking coal and coke, and non - metallic building materials such as glass and PVC increased [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange adjusted the intraday flat - today trading fees for glass and soda ash futures contracts from the night trading session on July 30 [12]. 4. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock index futures**: On July 29, 2025, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 had different trends, with some continuing to rebound slightly and some facing slight downward pressure [14][15][16]. - **Treasury bond futures**: On July 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 2344 billion yuan [37]. - **Other commodity futures**: Each commodity futures contract had different trends on July 29, 2025, and the report provided expected trends and resistance/support levels for July 30, 2025 [43][51][54] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while weak demand is a negative factor [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote stable growth in key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film showing slight improvement. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7400 (+30), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 15, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (-0), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 10, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PP will fluctuate today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7400 (+30), the 09 contract price is 7385 (+50), the basis is 15 (-20), the warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7150 (0), the 09 contract price is 7160 (+30), the basis is - 10 (-30), the warehouse receipt is 12895 (+200), and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 17.8%, and the consumption growth rate in 2019 was 14.3% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend with fluctuations. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate in 2020 was 17.9% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The global trade situation is stabilizing with positive progress in tariff negotiations between the US and its major trading partners, which has led to a decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. Different commodities are expected to show various trends based on their own fundamentals and macro - economic factors [2][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Tariff negotiations have made progress. The US and China plan to extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. Trump advanced the Russia - Ukraine agreement deadline and threatened to raise taxes on Russia, causing oil prices to soar. India postponed concessions and aims to reach an agreement with the US in September - October. The US labor market is cooling but remains robust. The US 6 - month job openings dropped to 7.437 million, and the hiring rate fell to 3.3%. - Domestic: Market sentiment is positive, actively speculating on policy expectations. Commodity fluctuations have intensified. A - shares opened lower and closed higher with heavy trading volume. The bond market significantly adjusted under pressure. In the long - term, social security policies are expected to ease over - capacity and involution problems, and domestic demand policies may continue to strengthen. In the short - term, beware of market adjustments after the fading of sentiment and the realization of policy benefits [2][3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious metal futures prices showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 2.08% to $3383 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.09% to $38.33 per ounce. The market is concerned about Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Fed meeting. The US and China will extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The EU may purchase 40 billion euros of AI chips in the US - EU trade agreement. The US labor market data is weak, and the trade deficit has narrowed. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week but is highly concerned about its policy outlook. If more Fed members support a rate cut in September, it may boost gold prices. Short - term gold and silver prices are expected to fluctuate [4][5][6]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper was weakly volatile, and LME copper sought support at the $9700 level. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper improved slightly, and domestic trade copper rose to a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade talks made positive progress, and the IMF significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year to 4.8%. The market is concerned that the US may impose a 50% copper import tariff starting from Friday. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate supply is tight, and domestic social inventories are at a low level. It is expected that copper prices will stabilize and rebound in the short - term [7][8]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, SHFE aluminum closed at 20,615 yuan/ton, down 0.65%, and LME aluminum closed at $2606 per ton, down 0.95%. The spot market supply has slightly increased, but consumer buying willingness is still low due to high - price concerns and the off - season. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [9][10]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 3307 yuan/ton, up 1.01%. The spot alumina national average price rose to 3267 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price increased to $379 per ton. A strike occurred at the Friguia alumina plant in Guinea, affecting production. The deliverable alumina supply is limited, and the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased to a new low. Alumina's downward trend has slowed, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [12][13]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, SHFE zinc showed narrow - range fluctuations, and LME zinc stabilized. The downstream buying willingness is low, and the spot market maintains a small premium. The Sino - US trade negotiations have not made a major breakthrough. The market is waiting for the Fed's interest - rate decision and domestic important meetings. Although heavy rain in the north has not affected galvanizing plant production, terminal demand is insufficient. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [14][15]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, SHFE lead showed narrow - range fluctuations. Heavy rain in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region has affected raw material transportation. The supply shortage in some areas has slightly improved. The supply is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and consumer demand has changed little. It is expected that lead prices will consolidate horizontally in the short - term [16][17]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, SHFE tin was volatile. The rainy season in Myanmar may disrupt tin ore transportation, intensifying the shortage of raw material supply. Domestic refined tin smelter operations have marginally improved but remain at a low level. The off - season for downstream consumption continues, and high - price buying is insufficient. Domestic inventories have increased, but LME inventories are at a low level. It is expected that tin prices will adjust, but the adjustment range will be limited [18]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract continued to rebound. The spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 silicon has a premium over the 2509 contract. The warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously declining. The supply side is contracting, and the demand side is affected by various factors. It is expected that the futures price will continue to rebound in the short - term [19][20]. 3.10 Steel and Iron - **Screw and Coil**: On Tuesday, steel futures rebounded. The Sino - US trade negotiations reached a consensus to extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. The macro - situation is positive, and supply is expected to shrink in mid - August due to parade - related production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, iron ore futures rebounded. Port inventories decreased, mainly due to reduced arrivals and resilient steel mill purchases. Steel mills are profitable, and iron ore supply remains stable. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate and rebound [23]. 3.11 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is favorable, increasing the expectation of high yields. The US and China will extend reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days. China mainly purchases South American soybeans recently, and there is a concern about supply shortage in the fourth quarter. It is expected that domestic soybean meal futures will stop falling and fluctuate [24]. - **Palm Oil**: On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade tariff quotas. India may increase imports due to low inventories and holiday demand. Crude oil prices have risen. It is expected that palm oil prices will fluctuate strongly in the short - term [25][26]. 3.12 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc., on July 29 [27]. 3.13 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, etc., such as contract prices, warehouse receipt inventories, spot prices, and price differentials between different dates [28][31][33].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content, so this section is skipped. Core Views of the Report - The market volume increase drives full - scale rises in various sectors. Pay attention to the new statements of the end - of - month Politburo meeting which may become the short - term market direction. Suggest buying IF stock index futures on dips [3] - In the bond market, although the economic data in Q2 shows resilience and the central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, the current positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term fluctuations are affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6] - The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, supporting precious metal prices. It is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] - For various metals, the prices are affected by multiple factors such as the Fed's interest - rate meeting, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Most metals are expected to show a trend of volatile and weak operation in the short - term [10][11][12] - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different trends. For example, crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand in August, while some products like methanol and urea face supply - demand imbalances [42][43][44] - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand, weather, and policy [55][56][57] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: Some self - media content about the photovoltaic industry is inconsistent with the facts; from January to June, the total operating income, total profit, and tax payable of state - owned enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the asset - liability ratio increased; the Kremlin's statement about a possible meeting between Putin and Trump in September and the diplomatic response; Novo Nordisk cut its 2025 outlook, causing its US stocks to fall sharply [2] - **Trading Logic**: The market volume increase leads to a full - scale rise in various sectors. Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, and it is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3] Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined [4] - **News**: By the end of H1, the scale of cash - management wealth management products decreased; the US housing price increase slowed down in May [4] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [4] - **Strategy**: The economic data in Q2 shows resilience, but the positive sentiment in commodities and the stock market suppresses the bond market. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [6] Precious Metals - **Market**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rose. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [7] - **Market Outlook**: The weak US economic data increases the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. It is expected that the Fed will make a dovish statement in this interest - rate meeting, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position mindset, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [7][8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the US dollar index is strong, and the copper price rebounds with fluctuations. LME inventory increases, and the domestic spot premium changes [10] - **Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the upward space of copper price is limited due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [11] Aluminum - **Market**: The domestic black series stabilizes and rebounds, and the price of Shanghai aluminum declines with fluctuations. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods changes, and the LME inventory increases [12] - **Outlook**: Although the domestic and overseas sentiment is positive, the price rebound is limited due to the off - season of downstream demand and weak export demand. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [12] Zinc - **Market**: The Shanghai zinc index rises slightly. The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the inventory is increasing [13] - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish. In the short - term, pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and the structural risks in the LME market. Be cautious about price fluctuations [13] Lead - **Market**: The Shanghai lead index declines slightly. The supply of lead ingots tightens marginally, and the price of lead batteries stabilizes [15][16] - **Outlook**: If the inspection of smelters expands, the price may strengthen. Be cautious about price fluctuations affected by capital sentiment [16] Nickel - **Market**: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly. The price of nickel ore and nickel iron is stable, and the spot trading of refined nickel is okay [17] - **Outlook**: The short - term macro - environment cools down, and the price of stainless steel falls. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [17] Tin - **Market**: The tin price is weakly volatile. The inventory of the domestic futures exchange and LME increases, and the price of tin concentrate declines [18] - **Outlook**: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery increases, but the short - term supply of smelting raw materials is still under pressure. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [18] Carbonate Lithium - **Market**: The spot index of carbonate lithium declines, and the futures contract price also falls [19] - **Outlook**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the passive reduction of the mine end. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of carbonate lithium can seize the entry opportunity according to their own situation [19][20] Alumina - **Market**: The alumina index rises, and the spot prices in different regions increase. The import window is closed, and the futures inventory is at a low level [21] - **Strategy**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to factors such as warehouse receipt registration and supply - side policies [21] Stainless Steel - **Market**: The price of the stainless - steel futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of futures and society decreases [22] - **Outlook**: The steel mill's price - supporting policy is firm, but if terminal demand cannot keep up, the price may decline. Pay attention to macro - news and downstream demand [22] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: The price of the AD2511 contract slightly declines, and the trading volume shrinks. The spot price is stable, and the inventory slightly increases [23] - **Outlook**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are both weak. The price is expected to face upward pressure [23] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rise, and the spot prices change. The inventory of rebar decreases, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil increases slightly [25][26] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand [26] Iron Ore - **Market**: The price of the iron - ore futures contract rises, and the inventory of ports and steel mills increases slightly [27][28] - **Outlook**: The demand for iron ore is strong, and the supply pressure is not significant. The short - term price may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - situation [28] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market**: The spot price in Shahe and Huazhong changes, and the inventory decreases [29] - **Outlook**: The short - term glass price is boosted by macro - policies, and it is expected to be volatile. In the long - term, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side contraction [29] - **Soda Ash** - **Market**: The spot price is stable, and the inventory decreases. The price fluctuates widely [30] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be volatile, and the long - term upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [30] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rise. The spot prices also increase [31] - **Outlook**: Short - term price fluctuations are large, and it is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. In the long - term, the fundamentals of both are expected to be weak [32][33] Industrial Silicon - **Market**: The price of the industrial - silicon futures contract rises. The spot prices of different grades decline [35] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. The long - term fundamentals are still in a situation of over - supply and insufficient demand [36] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: NR and RU decline significantly and then fluctuate slightly. The开工 rates of domestic tire enterprises change, and the inventory of natural rubber decreases [39] - **Outlook**: The price is in a state of decline and fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the band - operation of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [41] Crude Oil - **Market**: The prices of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures rise. The gasoline inventory in the port of Fujairah decreases, and the diesel inventory increases [42] - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals are healthy, and the oil price has upward momentum, but it is limited by seasonal demand in August. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [42] Methanol - **Market**: The price of the methanol futures contract rises, and the spot price also increases [43] - **Outlook**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [43] Urea - **Market**: The price of the urea futures contract rises, and the spot price declines [44] - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is recommended to pay attention to going long on dips [44] Styrene - **Market**: The spot price declines, and the futures price rises. The inventory of the port increases, and the demand from downstream industries rises [45] - **Outlook**: The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side [45] PVC - **Market**: The price of the PVC futures contract rises, and the spot price declines. The inventory of the factory decreases, and the social inventory increases [47] - **Outlook**: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the valuation is high. The price may decline after the sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: The price of the EG09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory of the port decreases [48] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to weaken from strong, and the short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - **Market**: The price of the PTA09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory accumulates [49] - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to accumulate, and the processing fee space is limited. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [49] p - Xylene - **Market**: The price of the PX09 contract rises, and the supply and demand sides change. The inventory is at a low level [50] - **Outlook**: The short - term negative feedback pressure is small, and it is expected to continue to reduce inventory. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: The price of the PE futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise decreases, and the inventory of the trader increases [51][52] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise with fluctuations following the cost side, and it is recommended to hold short positions [52] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: The price of the PP futures contract rises, and the spot price is stable. The inventory of the production enterprise, trader, and port increases [53] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and strong in July under the influence of macro - expectations [53] Agricultural Products Pig - **Market**: The domestic pig price mainly declines, and the demand is weak. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction [55] - **Strategy**: Pay more attention to the opportunity of spread trading, and the long - term structure of the spread may change [55] Egg - **Market**: The egg price is mostly stable, and the high temperature reduces the egg - laying rate. The spot price rebounds, and the short - term near - month contract fluctuates [56] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunity after the price rebounds for contracts after September [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: The price of US soybeans declines at night, and the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulates. The spot price of soybean meal slightly declines, and the trading volume is large [57] - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to factors such as squeezing profit and supply pressure. Consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal for the 09 contract [58] Oil - **Market**: The domestic palm oil price fluctuates, and the net long positions of foreign - funded institutions in three major oils increase slightly. The export and production data of palm oil and other products change [59][60] - **Strategy**: The price is expected to be volatile. The palm oil price may be supported in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter, but the upward space is limited [61] Sugar - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuates, and the spot price is stable. The sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [62] - **Outlook**: If the external - market price does not rebound significantly, the price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline [62] Cotton - **Market**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures drops sharply, and the spot price slightly declines. The growth data of US cotton changes [63] - **Outlook**: The short - term price is bearish as the price breaks the upward trend line and the downstream consumption is weak [63]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].

Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is experiencing a noticeable decline in consumer spending, indicating economic pressure on various income groups [1][2] - The company's net sales for Q4 increased by 2% to $20.9 billion, slightly above market expectations, with earnings per share rising by 17% to $1.48, largely due to a significant restructuring charge [1] - P&G forecasts sales growth for FY2026 to be between 1% and 5%, with earnings per share growth projected at 3% to 9% [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are depleting inventories, postponing non-essential purchases, and reducing store visits to avoid buying unnecessary items [1] - Both low-income and high-income consumers are seeking value, but they face different economic constraints [2] Market Conditions - Demand in the U.S. and Western Europe is slowing due to unstable macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical issues, and changing consumer dynamics [2] - P&G anticipates a $1 billion increase in annual costs due to tariffs, a revision from the previous estimate of $1 billion to $1.5 billion [1] Leadership Changes - CEO Jon Moeller will transition to Executive Chairman in January, with COO Shailesh Jejurikar taking over as CEO [2] - Under Moeller's leadership, P&G navigated post-pandemic sales surges and rising costs, with the company's stock price increasing approximately 13% during his tenure [2] Pricing Strategy - Starting this month, P&G will raise prices on about a quarter of its products in the U.S. to offset costs from new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration [2]

Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1][3] - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in business sentiment [5] - The banker macroeconomic heat index decreased to 33.2%, with 61.9% of bankers believing the economy is performing normally, while 35.8% consider it "cold" [7][9] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - In the second quarter, nearly 70% of residents reported that their income situation remained unchanged, with a cautious outlook on employment [10][11] - A significant portion of residents (32.1%) indicated that they plan to increase spending on tourism, surpassing education as the top choice for additional expenditures [2][13] - The majority of residents expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter, with 60.1% anticipating no change in prices and 56.8% expecting housing prices to remain unchanged [11]

Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Over half of entrepreneurs and bankers view the current macroeconomic performance as stable and normal, holding a neutral to cautious attitude towards the overall economy [1] - The entrepreneur's business climate index and profit index both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [3] - The banker macroeconomic heat index decreased to 33.2%, with 61.9% of bankers considering the macroeconomic performance normal [4] Group 2: Price and Production Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continues to show a year-on-year decline, with a significant percentage of entrepreneurs reporting stable product sales and raw material prices compared to the previous quarter [3] - The overall demand for loans has decreased, reflecting a cautious outlook in the banking sector [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - In a survey of urban residents, nearly 70% reported that their income remained unchanged in the second quarter, with a cautious outlook on employment [6] - The majority of residents expect prices and housing prices to remain stable in the next quarter, indicating a lack of inflationary pressure [6] - The top spending priority for residents in the next three months is tourism, surpassing education, with 32.1% planning to increase spending in this area [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) survey indicates a cautious yet stable outlook among entrepreneurs and bankers regarding the macroeconomic performance, with over half expressing a neutral stance towards the economy [1][6][10]. Group 1: Entrepreneur Insights - The business climate index and profit index for entrepreneurs have both increased compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slight improvement in sentiment [2][8]. - In the second quarter, 50.8% of entrepreneurs believe the macroeconomic performance is normal, while 48.6% view it as "cold" [6]. - The profit index for entrepreneurs stands at 53.2%, with 32.5% of entrepreneurs reporting an increase in profits or a reduction in losses, marking a 6.5 percentage point increase from the previous quarter [8]. Group 2: Banker Insights - The macroeconomic heat index for bankers is at 33.2%, showing a decline from the previous quarter, with 61.9% considering the economy normal and 35.8% perceiving it as "cold" [10]. - The bankers' perception of monetary policy is generally positive, with 50% rating it as accommodative, and their expectations for the third quarter have improved slightly [9][12]. Group 3: Consumer Insights - The urban residents' survey reveals that 69.7% of respondents feel their income remains unchanged in the second quarter [15]. - A significant portion of residents (51.5%) perceive the employment situation as severe, reflecting a cautious outlook on job prospects [16]. - When asked about future spending, tourism has surpassed education as the preferred category, with 32.1% of residents planning to increase spending in this area [21].