Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures main contract first rose and then fell, closing down 0.23%. The open interest increased month - on - month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis strengthened. - Fundamentally, on the raw material side, lithium ore prices fluctuate sharply with the spot price of lithium carbonate. On the supply side, the previous relatively strong market quickly turned weak as some smelters in Jiangxi resumed production after equipment maintenance. Currently, domestic supply may increase slightly. On the demand side, downstream buyers are more cautious, but the procurement demand has rebounded as lithium prices fall rapidly. Overall, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the inventory is still high but decreasing. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of open interest is 75.35%, up 0.0109% month - on - month. The call open interest dominates, and the market sentiment is bullish with a slight decline in implied volatility. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are contracting. - The operation suggestion is to short at high levels with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Main contract closing price: 78,860 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. - Main contract open interest: 351,322 lots, up 1,826 lots. - Net position of the top 20: - 138,531 lots, up 13,645 lots. - Spread between near and far contracts: 580 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Warehouse receipts on GZEE: 26,690 lots/ton, up 1,060 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate: 81,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - Average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate: 79,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - Basis of Li₂CO₃ main contract: 2,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China): 961 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - Average price of amblygonite: 7,775 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - Average price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%): 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Lithium carbonate production: 44,600 tons, up 500 tons. - Lithium carbonate imports: 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons. - Lithium carbonate exports: 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons. - Lithium carbonate enterprise operating rate: 48%, down 4 percentage points. - Power battery production: 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh. - Price of lithium manganate: 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of lithium hexafluorophosphate: 55,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of lithium cobalt oxide: 235,000 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Price of ternary material (811 type, China): 147,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. - Price of ternary material (622 power type, China): 123,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - Price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type, China): 130,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. - Operating rate of ternary cathode materials: 52%, up 1 percentage point. - Price of lithium iron phosphate: 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode: 51%, down 1 percentage point. - New energy vehicle monthly production (CAAM): 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles. - New energy vehicle monthly sales (CAAM): 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles. - Cumulative penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales (CAAM): 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points. - Cumulative new energy vehicle sales and year - on - year increase: 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles. - New energy vehicle monthly exports: 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles. - Cumulative new energy vehicle exports and year - on - year increase: 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles. - 20 - day average volatility of the underlying: 52.75%, down 0.03 percentage points. - 40 - day average volatility of the underlying: 56.43%, down 0.07 percentage points. [2] 3.6 Options Situation - Total call open interest: 205,910 contracts, up 4,714 contracts. - Total put open interest: 155,156 contracts, up 3,574 contracts. - Put - call ratio of total open interest: 75.35%, up 0.0109 percentage points. - At - the - money implied volatility: 0.37%, down 0.0168 percentage points. [2] 4. Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized developing new - quality productive forces, promoting the integration of the digital and real economies, boosting consumption, and enhancing innovation capabilities. - Premier Li Qiang stressed expanding high - quality service imports, promoting institutional opening - up of service trade, and building a unified national market. - He Xiaopeng, Chairman of XPeng Motors, said the elimination stage in China's auto industry will last about five years, and about five domestic enterprises may remain. - The National Energy Administration stated that during the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China built the world's largest EV charging network and the largest and fastest - growing renewable energy system, with the proportion of renewable energy power generation capacity increasing from 40% to about 60%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The fundamentals may show a situation of both supply and demand growth, with a slight reduction in social inventory and an increase in exchange inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and a weak - oscillating strategy [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The fundamentals may be in a situation of a slight increase in supply, temporarily weak but expected to recover demand, and a slight accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and an oscillating strategy [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The fundamentals may be in a stage of a slight reduction in supply and weak demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and sell on rallies strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,810 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the closing price of the Alumina futures main contract is 3,046 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,638.50 US dollars/ton, up 16.50 US dollars [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory is 478,075 tons, down 650 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 124,605 tons, up 3,952 tons; Alumina inventory is 103,364 tons, up 14,952 tons [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 269,866 lots, up 18,457 lots; the open interest of the Alumina main contract is 237,684 lots, up 8,959 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price is 20,840 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the Alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Alumina is 124 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 30 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Supply**: Alumina production is 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the import volume of Alumina is 12.59 million tons, up 2.47 million tons [2]. - **Demand**: The demand for Alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high, especially in the southwest region during the July - August wet season [2]. 3.4 Downstream and Application - **Production**: Aluminum product production is 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; automobile production is 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - **Export**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 6.02%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.36%, up 0.08% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Put - Call Ratio**: The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.72%, down 0.0050%; the put - call ratio is 1.09, up 0.0131 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The 13th Plenary Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized the development of new - quality productivity [2]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed the expansion of high - quality service imports and the promotion of high - quality development of the service industry [2]. - Trump may let Stephen Milan serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long time and may visit China this year [2]

Core Insights - Xinhua Insurance achieved a cumulative original insurance premium income of 137.8 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%, continuing its steady growth trend this year [1] Group 1: High-Quality Development - The company emphasizes high-quality development as the core driving force, integrating into the national development strategy and focusing on customer-centric, professional, market-oriented, and systematic reforms [1] - Xinhua Insurance has enriched its product offerings with over 100 products available, focusing on the second and third pillar business opportunities, particularly in the aging economy [2] - The company aims to enhance customer satisfaction through improved claims experiences, achieving a total of 2.41 million claims with a payout amount of 7.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with an average claim processing time of just 0.72 days [2] Group 2: Serving National Strategy - Xinhua Insurance supports the real economy with investments exceeding one trillion yuan, aligning its operations with national strategies [3] - The company has provided risk protection for over 30,000 corporate clients, amounting to approximately 14.5 trillion yuan, and has undertaken 20 public welfare insurance projects [3] - Investments in key national areas have increased by nearly 60% year-on-year, focusing on technology innovation, industrial upgrades, and low-carbon development [3] Group 3: Reform and Innovation - The company is committed to deepening its reforms across products, services, teams, and institutional construction to build multiple core advantages [4] - Xinhua Insurance is enhancing its product framework to offer comprehensive insurance coverage and is actively transforming its dividend insurance products to meet customer wealth preservation needs [4] - The company is also upgrading its service capabilities and expanding its service offerings across various domains, including healthcare and legal services [4] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The insurance industry is entering a golden opportunity period for high-quality development, supported by national policies and regulatory guidance [5] - Xinhua Insurance aims to implement the new national guidelines, focusing on large-scale products, markets, services, and investments to enhance its development capabilities [5]

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has released a draft for the "Management Measures for Mergers and Acquisitions Loans by Commercial Banks," marking a significant revision of the previous guidelines from 2015, aimed at enhancing the merger and acquisition market and supporting the real economy, particularly in technology innovation [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Loan Policy Changes - The new measures increase the loan-to-value ratio for mergers and acquisitions, extending the maximum loan term and introducing "equity-type acquisition loans," thereby broadening the funding channels for mergers and acquisitions [2][4]. - The maximum loan proportion for controlling mergers has been raised from 60% to 70%, while the maximum for equity-type loans is set at 60% [5][6]. Risk Management and Assessment - The measures emphasize the assessment of the acquirer's repayment ability, considering the risks associated with the merger and the future development prospects of the acquired company [5][6]. - The new regulations require banks to have a good regulatory rating and meet specific asset size requirements to engage in these loan types, with a minimum asset balance of 50 billion RMB for controlling loans and 100 billion RMB for equity-type loans [4][5]. Impact on Industries - The technology sector, advanced manufacturing, real estate, and green industries are expected to benefit significantly from these changes, as the increased loan limits will alleviate funding pressures for companies seeking to acquire key technologies and resources [7][8]. - The extended loan terms are particularly advantageous for manufacturing firms undergoing transformation, allowing for better long-term investment returns and easing short-term repayment pressures [7][8]. Regulatory Environment - The draft reflects a differentiated regulatory approach, where smaller banks may face challenges in meeting the risk management requirements necessary for engaging in equity-type acquisition loans [9].

Economic Development - The development of the asset management industry is crucial for reducing the proportion of indirect financing, as it transforms debt into equity through mechanisms like trusts and asset management [3][4] - The current financial system in China primarily supports indirect financing, with a significant reliance on bank loans, while the need for equity capital remains unmet [4][5] - The asset management sector has seen growth but requires further reform, particularly in legal frameworks, to enhance its role in supporting the real economy [6][8] Capital Market and Financing - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes improving the capital market's foundational systems and increasing the proportion of direct financing, especially equity financing [4] - As of June 2023, the total stock of RMB loans reached 228.86 trillion, with an increase of 16.43 trillion from December 2022, while A-share equity financing in the first half of 2023 was 587.1 billion, a decrease of 353 billion from the second half of 2022 [4] - Despite efforts to promote direct financing, indirect financing remains dominant in social financing, indicating a need for more effective measures to enhance equity financing [4][5] Global Economic Trends - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with the IMF projecting growth rates of 3.0% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024, indicating potential recessionary conditions [8][9] - Current global inflation poses challenges, with the need for careful monetary policy to avoid exacerbating economic downturns [8][9] - The trend of de-globalization is emerging, impacting global supply chains and economic efficiency, necessitating a reevaluation of economic strategies [9][10] Financial System and Risk Management - The financial system's primary role is to serve the real economy, with a focus on managing risks effectively [12] - The recent depreciation of the RMB against the USD by 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year raises concerns about currency stability and its impact on asset prices [12][13] - Recommendations suggest prioritizing foreign exchange reserves over currency stabilization, emphasizing the importance of maintaining reserves as a more critical factor [13]

Core Insights - The insurance industry in China is projected to see a significant increase in premium income and total assets by 2025, with a growth of over 25% in premium income and 68% in total assets compared to 2020 [1] Group 1: Strengthening Social Welfare - The insurance sector has expanded its capacity to improve and guarantee livelihoods, with personal insurance payouts reaching 1.2 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of 88.08% from 2020, and property insurance payouts at 1.1 trillion yuan, up 57.14% [2] - The insurance industry is actively developing commercial insurance products, enhancing the supply of insurance for new industries and urban residents, and improving the inclusive insurance system to better meet public needs [2] - Catastrophe insurance has achieved full coverage for common natural disasters in China, with over 20 provinces piloting comprehensive catastrophe insurance [2] Group 2: Enhancing Support for the Real Economy - The insurance industry provides risk protection across various sectors, including agriculture, with agricultural insurance premiums increasing from 97.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 148.37 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The introduction of innovative insurance products, such as weather index insurance for oil tea plantations, demonstrates the industry's commitment to supporting agricultural resilience [3] - Insurance funds are increasingly being utilized for long-term investments in major projects, with the balance of insurance company funds rising from 21.68 trillion yuan at the end of 2020 to 34.93 trillion yuan by the first quarter of this year [4] Group 3: Ongoing Reforms in Key Areas - The insurance industry is undergoing significant reforms, including the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for life insurance product pricing linked to market rates, aimed at enhancing pricing accuracy [7] - The implementation of the "Car Insurance Good to Insure" platform has facilitated the coverage of over 880,000 new energy vehicles, with total insured amounts reaching 888.95 billion yuan [6] - Reforms in the auto insurance sector have led to a 21.2% decrease in average premiums, while the compulsory insurance coverage has increased significantly [6]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China is playing a crucial role in promoting economic development, improving people's livelihoods, and supporting common prosperity, with significant growth in premium income and asset value projected for the coming years [1][2]. Group 1: Insurance Industry Growth - By 2024, the original insurance premium income in China is expected to grow over 25% compared to 2020, while total assets are projected to increase by 68% by mid-2025 compared to the end of 2020 [1]. - In 2024, the personal insurance sector's payout is anticipated to reach 1.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 88.08% from 2020, while property insurance payouts are expected to be 1.1 trillion yuan, up 57.14% from 2020 [2]. Group 2: Enhancing Livelihood Protection - The insurance industry is expanding its coverage and improving service capabilities, with a focus on commercial insurance products such as annuities and long-term care insurance to better meet public needs [2]. - The implementation of catastrophe insurance has achieved full coverage for common natural disasters in China, with over 20 provinces conducting pilot programs [2]. Group 3: Support for the Real Economy - The insurance sector is providing risk protection across various sectors, including agriculture, with agricultural insurance premiums rising from 97.6 billion yuan in 2021 to 148.37 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - The establishment of the China Integrated Circuit Co-insurance Body has provided approximately 4.2 trillion yuan in risk protection since its inception, while technology insurance is projected to cover around 9 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. Group 4: Reform and Innovation - The "Car Insurance Easy to Insure" platform has facilitated the coverage of over 880,000 new energy vehicles with a total insured amount of 888.95 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing reforms in the auto insurance sector [5]. - The average car insurance premium has decreased by 21.2% to 2,773 yuan, while the compulsory insurance coverage has increased from 122,000 yuan to 200,000 yuan [5]. Group 5: Future Directions - The financial regulatory authority plans to continue enhancing risk management, strengthening supervision, and promoting high-quality development within the insurance industry to better serve national strategies and improve social governance [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Tianjin Binhai New Area has made significant achievements during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on high-quality development and aligning with national strategies [1] Group 1: National Strategy and Development - Binhai New Area has actively supported the de-concentration of non-capital functions from Beijing, undertaking 278 major projects with a total investment of 273.4 billion yuan, and attracting 1,484 new institutions from Beijing [2] - Major infrastructure projects such as the Tianjin-Weifang High-speed Railway and Beijing-Tianjin Intercity Railway have been implemented, enhancing regional collaboration and high-quality development [2] Group 2: Economic Performance - In 2024, the region's GDP is projected to reach 784.3 billion yuan, accounting for 43.5% of the city's total, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [3] - The per capita disposable income of urban residents is expected to be 68,000 yuan, an increase of 13,000 yuan from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with an average annual growth rate of 5.3% [3] - In the first half of this year, the GDP and general public budget revenue of Binhai New Area grew by 5.4% and 5.8%, respectively, indicating a solid economic foundation [3] Group 3: Industrial Structure and Upgrading - The region has optimized its industrial structure, forming five industrial clusters with over 100 billion yuan in sectors such as green petrochemicals and new energy vehicles, and five service industry clusters [4] - Binhai New Area has established nine national new-type industrialization demonstration bases and is actively developing future industries, including biomanufacturing and independent innovation [4] Group 4: Reform and Innovation - Major reforms such as "separation of licenses and permits" and "one enterprise, one certificate" have been implemented, leading the nation in reform initiatives [5] - The region has established seven national key laboratories and three national innovation centers, with the number of national high-tech enterprises reaching 5,338, a 60% increase from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [5] Group 5: Social Progress and Quality of Life - Binhai New Area has focused on improving living standards, with 295 old residential communities renovated and 54 new schools built, resulting in an increase in life expectancy to 83.8 years [6] - The area has created 394,000 new jobs and enhanced elderly care services, reflecting a commitment to high-quality living experiences for residents [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Postal Savings Bank of China Fuzhou Branch is committed to supporting the local economy by providing tailored financial services to key sectors such as agriculture, small and medium enterprises, and green development [1][2]. Group 1: Support for Key Industries - The bank has developed specialized service plans for technology-driven, green, and "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" enterprises to meet their unique financial needs [1]. - The bank has achieved breakthroughs in areas such as commercial acceptance bill discounting and self-operated forfaiting, effectively supplying financial resources to local businesses [1]. Group 2: Assistance for Green Development Enterprises - A case study of a local new energy technology company highlights the bank's rapid response to financing needs, providing a combined financing solution of "Technology Credit Loan + Green Credit" that resulted in a 5 million yuan loan issued within a week [2]. - The bank's corporate loan balance has surpassed 2 billion yuan, reaching 2.08 billion yuan, providing solid financial support for the high-quality development of Fuzhou's industries [2]. Group 3: Promotion of Consumer Upgrades - The bank plays a crucial role in enhancing consumer spending by focusing on key areas such as housing, automobiles, education, and healthcare, while continuously optimizing financial service processes [2]. - As of the end of July, the bank's consumer loan balance reached 11.007 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the prosperity of the Fuzhou consumer market [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank plans to continue its commitment to serving the real economy, focusing on customer needs, deepening financial innovation, and enhancing service levels to contribute to the high-quality economic and social development of the Fuzhou region [3].