农产品期权 2025-06-05 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品区间盘整，油脂类，豆类偏弱行情，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品 白糖延续偏弱，棉花反弹后高位盘整形态，谷物类玉米和淀粉逐渐回暖上升后窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2507 | 4,128 | 11 | ...

1、现货市场：钦州中粮进口三级菜油 9300 元/吨，较上一交易日跌 70 元/吨。 2、市场分析：供应方面，端午节后，国产菜籽即将陆续上市。后市，近月进口菜籽到港供 应较为充裕，远月进口菜籽到港暂较为偏紧。菜油下游需求中性。库存端，菜油库存中短 期或维持高位。 3、参考观点：菜油 2509 合约，短线于或平台区间内震荡整理。 现货信息：豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 2770 元/吨（-30）、天津 2850 元/吨（-20）、日 照 2790 元/吨（-20）、东莞 2780 元/吨（-20）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美贸易达成阶段性协议，但长期矛盾仍存。 （2）国际大豆：关税政策和天气为价格主要驱动因素。美豆播种顺利，巴西大豆出口高峰 期。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：大豆供给逐渐恢复，油厂开机率和压榨恢复正常，豆粕供给压力逐 渐凸显。豆粕成交缩量，下游采购意愿偏弱，随着下游企业安全库存建立，下游贸易商维 持随用随采、滚动补库为主。油厂大豆库存回升至高位，豆粕库存累库速度短期较缓。 参考观点：豆粕短线或震荡偏弱。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购均价 2204 元/吨；华北黄淮重 点企业 ...

| 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 铜 | CU2507 | 78,180 | 390 | 0.50 | 8.19 | -0.55 | 18.23 | 0.93 | | 铝 | AL2507 | 19,990 | 50 | 0.25 | 18.35 | 1.24 | 19.11 | -0.45 | | 锌 | ZN2507 | 22,355 | 115 | 0.52 | 15.54 | -2.63 | 12.27 | 0.61 | | 铅 | PB2507 | 16,635 | 60 | 0.36 | 2.85 | -2.44 | 5.55 | 0.22 | | 镍 | NI2507 | 121,860 | 300 | 0.25 | 7.35 | -7.21 | 9.19 | -0.30 | | 锡 | SN2507 | 253,930 | 3,840 ...

有色金属周报(铅) 关注原料支撑有效性 2025年6月4日 宏源期货 研究所 010-8229 5006 祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060） 开工平稳，原生铅供给偏松 目录 CONCENTS 原料告急+需求不佳，再生铅开工低位 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 原料端：全球铅精矿远期供应增量预期尚存，5月下旬海 | | | | | 外银矿招投标报价增多，但铅炼厂因配矿所需铅精矿和粗 | | | | | 铅供应不足而无法接受该类银矿，TC低位偏弱；废电瓶 | | | | | 方面货源依旧偏紧，回收商手中货源亦不多，门店看涨惜 | | | | | 售情绪浓厚。原料端对铅价支撑较强。 | | | |  | 供给端：原生铅前期检修炼厂复产，带来主要增量，部分 | 电解铅供给稳中有增，消费则处于 | | | | | 淡季，对铅价形成拖累，是当前铅 | | | | 炼厂检修安排延后至5月，原生铅供给整体稳中有升；再 | | | | | 生铅方面受原料因素影响减产较多，考虑当前开工已处于 | 市最大的利空，考虑铅精矿和废电 ...

积存金·盯盘神器显示，初步企稳最强支撑，留意反弹可能 盯盘神器入口 金十VIP盯盘神器·积存金可实时查看积存金报价的黄金最新支撑阻力参考位。当前最新的指标共振点汇总图（4小时）显示，积 存金最强支撑参考为778.21元，这之下支撑分布密集。更多积存金价格参考可以点击金十VIP页面-盯盘神器，选择"积存金"分类 即可实时查看。注：本报价为国际金价换算参考的虚拟报价，不代表实际买卖成交数据，仅供参考。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-04 价格低位震荡，夜盘略有回暖 端午假期间宏观情绪偏弱，叠加美国进⼀步加征钢铝关税，昨⽇⿊⾊ 价格价格偏弱运⾏。不过考虑到关税实际影响有限，且外蒙有加征资 源税传闻，夜盘价格有所反弹。产业供需层⾯，国内需求季节性⾛ 弱，制造业抢出⼝不及预期，淡季⼤⽅向不变。⽬前电炉和部分⾼炉 已开始亏损，铁⽔预期内回落，但整体盈利率尚可给予成本端⼀定⽀ 撑。综合来看，估值低位带来反弹驱动，但⾼度有限。 ⿊⾊：价格低位震荡，夜盘略有回暖 1、铁元素方面，供应端海外增量释放不及预期，全年累计发运同比 下降，且新项目爬坡放缓，全年增量下调；需求端钢企盈利和接单状 况依然较好，铁水预计可以维持高位，则全年铁水预计高于去年。 那么供需紧平衡下，预计9月前累库压力较小，整体现实供需矛盾不 突出。昨日夜盘黑色板块或受焦煤消息面扰动，整体反弹，铁矿亦小 幅上涨。 2、碳元素方面，焦煤产量整体高位维稳，叠加蒙煤口岸通关高位， 焦煤整体供应仍显宽松。需求端，焦炭产量暂处同期高位，但焦企去 库压力增加、炼焦利润收缩、焦炭增产空间有限。库存端，提降周期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is weak. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3455 - 3509 [8][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 28.6433%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 764,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. Refineries have reduced production to ease supply pressure [8]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.80 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 437.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 701.2414 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.49%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - **Basis**: On June 3, the Shandong spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 214 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%; the in - plant inventory was 814,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.76%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different asphalt contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as information on weekly inventory, weekly output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly shipment volume, and downstream demand开工率 [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - **Basis Trend**: It shows the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: It presents the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical average price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **开工率**: It shows the historical weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: It shows the historical social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70][71]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][90]. - It shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to May 2025, including data on monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].

Group 1 - OPEC+ crude oil exports in May decreased instead of increasing, indicating a tighter market condition [1] - The futures market is experiencing a significant rise in cross-period price spreads, reflecting a shift towards a tighter pricing environment [1] - Macroeconomic disturbances on both supply and demand sides are frequent, suggesting that oil prices may enter a volatile phase within the month [1] Group 2 - Summer demand is expected to create buying support, but the optimal entry point for bullish positions may not be immediate [1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292 2025年6月3日 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 上游价格及价差 | | --- | | 品种 | 5月30日 | 5月29日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 布伦特原油(7月) | 63.90 | 64.15 | -0.25 | -0.4% | | | WTI原油(7月) | 60.79 | 60.94 | -0.15 | -0.2% | 美元/桶 | | CFR日本石脑油 | રેત્વે | 570 | -11 | -1.9% | 美元/吨 | | CFR东北亚乙烯 | 780 | 780 | 0 | 0.0% | | | CFR中国纯本 | 723 | 730 | -7 | -1.0% | | | 纯本-石脑油 | 164 | 160 | 4 | 2.5% | | | 乙烯-石脑油 | 221 | 210 | 11 | 5.2% | | | 纯本华东现货 | 5820 | 5840 | -20 | -0.3% | | | 纯苯(中石化华东挂牌价) | 5950 | 5 ...

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 3 日 成本支撑与复产博弈 氧化铝震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端几内亚矿业和地质部长在国家电视台上公开 宣布将撤销几内亚129家矿业公司的勘探许可证， 其中涉及7个铝土矿项目，本次撤销暂时对在采矿 山没有直接影响，不过几内亚雨季临近，矿石供应 或有季节性减少。供应端当前开工产能较上周并 未明显增量，但随着氧化铝价格上涨利润增加，企 业生 ...