今日（12月23日）有色金属板块继续冲锋！同标的指数规模最大的有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中涨超0.6%，创ETF上市以来的新高！ 第二，AI革命，数据中心、算力基建离不开有色金属； 第三，战略储备，大国博弈背景下，有色金属等资源就是底气。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色 金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期+政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把握。 细分方向来看，黄金龙头方面，山东黄金领涨超4%，西部黄金、中金黄金涨逾1%；小金属龙头方面，云南锗业、中矿资源涨超2%。权重股方面，紫金矿 业、中国铝业飘红。 图：有色龙头ETF标的指数涨幅前10大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 中万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 山东黄金 | 4.18% | | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 上周A股市场在震荡中整体上行，以商贸零售（受"犒赏经济"概念推动）、美容护理、非银金融为代表 的周期及消费板块表现强势，新零售、氨纶、乳业等表现较好，前期热门题材核聚变、海南自贸区等回 调，科技成长出现调整。 责任编辑：宋雅芳 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 上周A股市场在震荡中整体上行，以商贸零售（受"犒赏经济"概念推动）、美容护理、非银金融为代表 的周期及消费板块表现强势，新零售、氨纶、乳业等表现较好，前期热门题材核聚变、海南自贸区等回 调，科技成长出现调整。 国内方面，最新公布的11月经济数据显示外需呈现修复迹象，价格水平亦有所回升，但内需动能仍显不 足。在总量政策"稳"的基调下，针对性、结构性的政策仍需加快落地。后续需重点关注以下三个方面： 一是地方两会等对明年政策方向的预示；二是政策性金融工具及存量限额所对应的实物工作量可能更多 体现在明年，且存在进一步加码的预期；三是房地产、服务消费补贴等潜在政策的推出节奏。四季度的 政策蓄力，既是为明年储备"弹药"，也可能旨在为明年四季度创造更有利 ...

截至2025年12月23日 09:57，上证180指数(000010)上涨0.13%，成分股寒武纪(688256)上涨4.27%，山东 黄金(600547)上涨4.25%，工业富联(601138)上涨4.11%，沪硅产业(688126)上涨2.70%，海光信息 (688041)上涨2.69%。上证180ETF指数基金(530280)最新报价1.21元。 消息面上，多家知名机构研判，2026年A股与港股市场有望迎来内外资共同驱动的"增量资金潮"。摩根 大通预计，2026年来自家庭、私募基金、ETF的增量资金将流入中国股市。据长江证券测算，2026年A 股市场潜在的增量资金空间约为6万亿元至9.6万亿元。景顺投资中国内地及香港首席投资总监马磊表 示，2026年全球或将进入降息周期，这会推动资金向新兴市场轮动。中国股市规模庞大且企业基本面持 续改善，有望充分受益。沪上一位外资私募负责人表示，养老金、主权财富基金、大学捐赠基金等国际 长线资金对中国市场的态度正发生明显转变，已将中国市场视为未来不可忽略的投资机会。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，上证180指数(000010)前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台(6005 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high and trended upward on Monday, with strong performance in sectors such as communication equipment, electronic components, aerospace, and semiconductors, while sectors like pharmaceutical commerce, education, banking, and retail showed weaker performance [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to consolidate around the 4000-point mark due to factors such as funding disturbances, policy expectations, and fluctuations in overseas liquidity [1] - The market sentiment is likely to improve as external disturbances decrease, with a potential continuation of the rebound trend in the short term [2] Group 2 - The three major A-share indices strengthened collectively on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering the 3900-point level but not yet effectively breaking through resistance [3] - The market liquidity environment is expected to remain loose until the first quarter of next year, with a trend of "deposit migration" likely to continue due to low interest rates and a scarcity of quality assets [3] - The recent market pullback has provided a favorable opportunity for investors to position themselves ahead of the upcoming spring market [3]

每到岁末年初，资本市场的目光总会不约而同地投向一个熟悉的话题——"春季行情"。这不仅是A股市 场一种常见的季节性行情现象，更是投资者布局新一年机会的关键窗口。随着2025年即将收官，市场对 2026年——这一"十五五"规划开局之年的春季行情，也寄予了更高的期待。 （作者薛洪言为星图金融研究院副院长） 理解"春季行情"：不止于指数行情，核心在于结构 所谓"春季躁动"，特指每年年末至次年一季度常出现的阶段性上涨行情。它并非简单的、必定来临的日 历效应，而是政策预期、流动性环境、基本面展望与市场风险偏好等多重力量，在特定时间窗口产生的 共振行情。 回顾过去七年（2019-2025年），若统一以"年初至2月末"作为观察窗口，春季行情虽非"年年都有"，但 发生频率确实较高：七年中有四年市场录得正收益。同时，无论是整体强度还是内在结构，都呈现出显 著的"大小年"特征和风格轮动。 例如，2019年春季躁动行情气势如虹，万得全A指数上涨超20%；而2022年同期，市场却下跌近7%。 从风格看，成长板块在过去数年的春季行情中整体占优，但具体到每一年，主导板块各不相同：2023年 是成长股的普涨盛宴，2024年则切换至以"中特估 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the CSI A500 index has surpassed the CSI 300 index in terms of net inflow of funds, reaching over 46 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor interest towards broader market indices [1] - The total scale of public funds has exceeded 300 billion yuan, with the number of newly established public funds reaching 1,468, marking a four-year high [1] - The market dynamics have shifted, with equity funds gaining prominence over bond funds, which were previously considered the market's stabilizing force [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is currently experiencing a high-level fluctuation, with concerns about weak economic growth potentially impacting corporate profits [1] - Some investors anticipate government intervention to support economic growth, which could bolster market sentiment and investment returns, particularly in innovative technology sectors [3] - The A-share market is viewed as entering a critical window for year-end positioning, with structural opportunities expected to align with policy guidance and industry prosperity [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to stabilize and recover in risk appetite, with a spring rally anticipated in 2026 as the overseas environment becomes more stable and liquidity expectations are clarified [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple brokerages indicate that a classic "cross-year-spring" rally is brewing, with significant institutional investors increasing their holdings in broad-based ETFs, providing stable incremental capital to the market [1][10][11]. - The spring market is characterized by a favorable liquidity environment, with historical patterns suggesting a high probability of a rebound before the Spring Festival [7][10]. - The market is currently experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations, influenced by external factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve policies and Japanese central bank actions, but is expected to resonate upward with global markets [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of finding buying points and waiting for opportunities, rather than chasing prices, as the market adjustment appears to be sufficient [2][12]. - Focus areas for investment include sectors benefiting from domestic demand, such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and tourism, as well as cyclical recovery sectors [4][11][13]. - The spring rally is seen as an opportunity to invest in high-growth sectors, with recommendations to pay attention to industries like industrial metals, non-bank financials, and tourism-related services [11][14]. Group 3: Currency and Asset Allocation - Investors are encouraged to adapt to a continuously appreciating RMB environment, with certain industries expected to benefit from improved profit margins due to currency appreciation [3]. - Approximately 19% of industries may see profit margin improvements due to the RMB's appreciation, which could attract investor attention [3].

Core Insights - The satellite-related ETFs and tourism-related ETFs showed strong performance with gains exceeding 6% during the period from December 15 to 19, while cross-border ETFs faced declines [1][7] - The overall market experienced fluctuations, but there was a significant net inflow of over 87 billion yuan into ETFs, indicating a clear bottom-fishing sentiment among investors [8] - Broad-based ETFs attracted the most capital, with seven out of the top ten ETFs by net inflow being broad-based ETFs, including the A500 ETF and the ChiNext ETF [8] Performance Summary - The top-performing ETFs included: - Satellite ETF (E Fund) with a weekly gain of 7.04% and a turnover rate of 146.49% [9] - Tourism ETFs with gains of 6.77% and 6.71% respectively [9] - Other notable performers included the satellite industry ETF and the aerospace ETF, both showing gains above 5% [9] - Conversely, cross-border ETFs, particularly the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF and the S&P Oil & Gas ETF, experienced significant declines, with the Hong Kong Information Technology ETF down by 5.24% [10] Fund Flow Analysis - From December 15 to 19, several broad-based ETFs saw substantial net inflows, with the A500 ETF (E Fund) and the ChiNext ETF leading with net inflows of 27 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan respectively [11] - The inflow into cross-border ETFs and innovative bond ETFs was also notable, with several ETFs in these categories exceeding 10 billion yuan in net inflows [11] Trading Volume Insights - The trading volume for ETFs tracking the CSI A500 index was significantly high, with multiple ETFs achieving average daily trading volumes exceeding 70 billion yuan [12] - The top three ETFs by trading volume included the Hong Kong Securities ETF, A500 ETF (E Fund), and ChiNext ETF, with weekly trading volumes of 520 billion yuan, 290 billion yuan, and 191 billion yuan respectively [12] Market Outlook - Investment firms like Invesco Great Wall Fund maintain an optimistic outlook for the market, particularly in the equity sector, emphasizing technology as a key focus area for future growth [13] - Recommendations include a shift from defensive to aggressive positioning, with a focus on technology indices and sectors benefiting from domestic demand recovery [13]

智通财经APP获悉，东方财富陈果团队发布研究报告称，此前提示美债利率呈现上升迹象，日本央行加 息在即，需留意外部扰动，从上周市场表现来看，A股有扰动，但增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿也较强 烈，结构上内需板块尤其是非耐用品消费明显占优。春季行情经历长时间高胜率演绎，已经从日历效应 迈过抢跑博弈，进入反身性阶段，后续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢 跑，逢低布局。结构上具备足够赔率吸引力且胜率在上升的内需板块重视程度上移，重点关注：保险、 券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源、创新药等。 春季行情演化论 随着市场参与者结构变化、信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强、经济新旧动能转换，春季行情经 历了深刻的演化，可以划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，2017年及以前，日历效应阶段。行情发酵于春节 后，依赖政策驱动和流动性回流；第二阶段，2018-2023年，抢跑博弈阶段。行情启动时点明显前移至 12月，源于学习效应与市场参与结构变化；第三阶段，2024-2025年，反身性阶段。"抢跑"消耗增量资 金，遇利空易致"深坑式调整"，后续依赖产业趋势+流动性驱动。 最新的美国CPI ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：陈果投资策略 摘要 上周周报我们提示美债利率呈现上升迹象，日本央行加息在即，需留意外部扰动，从本周市场表现来 看，A股有扰动，但增量资金抢跑春季行情意愿也较强烈，结构上内需板块尤其是非耐用品消费明显占 优。我们认为，春季行情经历长时间高胜率演绎，已经从日历效应迈过抢跑博弈，进入反身性阶段，后 续除可能的1月业绩预告扰动外，利空因素能见度不高，可顺应抢跑，逢低布局。结构上具备足够赔率 吸引力且胜率在上升的内需板块重视程度上移，重点关注：保险、券商、有色、AI算力/半导体、零售/ 美护/社服/乳品、航空、新能源、创新药等。 春季行情演化论 随着市场参与者结构变化、信息传播速度加快、投资者学习效应增强、经济新旧动能转换，春季行情经 历了深刻的演化，可以划分为三个阶段：第一阶段，2017年及以前，日历效应阶段。行情发酵于春节 后，依赖政策驱动和流动性回流；第二阶段，2018-2023年，抢跑博弈阶段。行情启动时点明显前移至 12月，源于学习效应与市场参与结构变化；第三阶段，2024-2025年，反身性阶段。"抢跑"消耗增量资 金，遇利空易 ...