Core Conclusions - Since mid-December last year, broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds have successively propelled the spring market rally [1] - Currently, there is net redemption in ETFs, a slowdown in the inflow of flexible foreign capital, and the inflow rate of leveraged funds has been too fast, which may put pressure on the short-term stock market liquidity [2] - The spring market rally is not over, and short-term fluctuations may present layout opportunities, with a balanced allocation structure, focusing on technology applications and upstream cycles, while paying attention to real estate and other traditional assets [1][3] Market Liquidity Changes - Since December 17, 2025, the A-share broad index has continued to rise, with the spring market gradually unfolding. The micro-funding environment has seen broad-based ETFs, flexible foreign capital, and leveraged funds play a supportive role [12] - In December, broad-based ETFs saw significant inflows, with a total net inflow exceeding 100 billion yuan, significantly higher than the -14.2 billion yuan in November. The ETF linked to the CSI A500 index contributed the majority of the subscription scale [12] - The strengthening of the RMB has catalyzed the inflow of flexible foreign capital into A-shares, with an estimated net inflow of at least 13.5 billion yuan in December, despite overall foreign capital being net outflow [12] Recent Changes in Micro-Funding - Recent weeks have seen new changes in the micro-funding environment, with net redemptions in ETFs and a slowdown in the inflow rate of flexible foreign capital. As of mid-January, broad-based ETFs have seen a cumulative net redemption of about 200 billion yuan [22] - The inflow rate of short-term leveraged funds has been too fast, with the financing balance exceeding 2.7 trillion yuan, creating historical highs. The average daily net buying amount since January 15 has reached 19.7 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 2.9 billion yuan in December [13][23] Spring Market Outlook - The current spring market rally is characterized by a significant upward trend rather than a minor rebound, with further potential for development. The market sentiment has not yet reached its peak, and the current policy environment remains accommodative [33] - The AI wave continues to drive technology growth as the main industry line for this bull market, with recommendations to focus on sectors where AI applications are being implemented [36] - There are also opportunities in value sectors such as undervalued real estate, non-bank financials, traditional consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, and upstream resource products [40]

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.1.16」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍上涨，除上证指数下跌外，其余指数均有不同程度上涨。 四期指亦表现分化，中小盘股强于大盘蓝筹股。本周，海内外有大量经济数据公布，周一公 布的12月通胀数据进一步修复带动市场上行；周三公布的进出口数据显示，2025年我国贸易 顺差创出历史记录，净出口强劲同样支撑股市，股指盘中再创高位，然而随着午后，沪深北 交所宣布提高融资保证金比例，市场情绪降温，股指高位回落。本周，市场成交活跃度较上 周进一步上升。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收1.27盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.43 | ...

Market Performance - The market opened high but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 118 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks declining [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance, with stocks like Changdian Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a five-year high, while other companies like Meige Technology and Kangqiang Electronics also saw significant gains [2] - The storage chip sector experienced a notable rise, with Jiangbolong's market value at 148.2 billion yuan increasing over 13%, and Baiwei Storage's market value at 86 billion yuan rising over 17%, both reaching historical highs [2] - Counterpoint Research reported that the storage market has entered a "super bull market" phase, expecting a further increase of 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and about 20% in Q2 2026 [2] Market Outlook - Guojin Securities suggests that the A-share market is likely to perform well in the future, driven by marginal improvements in liquidity, with historical trends indicating a continuation of the spring market rally [3] - The ongoing spring market is expected to benefit from a weak recovery in the economy, with technology and cyclical sectors likely to see upward profit growth [4] - Huajin Securities emphasizes that the current external risks are relatively limited, and the focus should remain on growth sectors that are poised for a rebound [4]

Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a high opening but closed lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.26% at 4101.91 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.18% at 14281.08 points, and the ChiNext Index down 0.2% at 3361.02 points. The STAR Market 50 Index rose by 1.35% to 1514.07 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 3.03 trillion yuan, with over 2900 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with stocks like Changdian Technology hitting the daily limit and reaching a five-year high. Other stocks such as Meige Technology, Kangqiang Electronics, and Shenghui Integration also hit the daily limit [1][4] - The storage chip concept saw a significant rise in the afternoon, with stocks like Baiwei Storage and Jiangbolong reaching historical highs [1] - The human-robot concept gained traction, with stocks like Wuzhou New Spring and Founder Electric hitting the daily limit [1] - The electric grid equipment sector remained active, with stocks like Siyuan Electric and Guangdian Electric also hitting the daily limit [2] Investment Insights - According to Dongfang Securities, the spring market is not over, and a slow bull market is expected to continue. The market is gradually returning to a healthy and rational state, with recent hot sectors experiencing larger corrections [7] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that the market is currently in a "structural bull" high area, anticipating some corrections but with limited magnitude. They expect a phase of adjustment after the spring market [8] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) forecasts a continued slowdown in financial growth in the first half of 2026, with a focus on quality over quantity in fiscal policy [8] Notable Developments - The electric grid company is expected to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a 40% increase from the previous plan, aimed at promoting high-quality development in the new power system supply chain [2] - The carbon fiber sector saw a rise in stocks like Zhongjian Technology and Huayang Co., with the successful production of domestically made T1000-grade carbon fiber, which will be used in various high-tech applications [3] - The optical module concept also saw a resurgence, with stocks like Shijia Technology and Kechuan Technology hitting the daily limit, driven by an increase in long-term shipment expectations for Google's TPU chips [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the "spring market" has arrived early, leading investors to potentially take profits before the Lunar New Year holiday or the National People's Congress, while liquidity support and stimulus policy expectations may boost the A-share market, although the pace of growth is expected to slow, transitioning towards a "slow bull" market [1] - The report notes that the regulatory authority raised the minimum margin ratio on January 14 to cool market sentiment, but it is believed that the A-share market has not yet entered a bubble phase [1] - Financing transactions as a percentage of total trading volume increased from 9.9% to 11.2% over the past month, still below the historical "warning level" of 12% that has previously triggered regulatory tightening [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that investor crowding in the top three popular sectors is still far below the peaks observed in February or October 2025 [1] - The company maintains a positive outlook for the first half of 2026, recommending investors to diversify their exposure in both A-share and Hong Kong markets for balanced sector risk [1] - Preferred stocks in the Hong Kong market include Tencent Holdings, Shenzhou International, Weichai Power, China Resources Land, and Alibaba, while preferred stocks in the A-share market include Midea Group, Northern Huachuang, CATL, Heng Rui Medicine, and Lanke Technology, all rated as "buy" [1]

热点板块： 1月科技和原材料涨价方向占优，高股息可做左侧关注。1月市场迎来春季行情的启动，历年春季躁动行情，科技成长方向大概率占优。 结合短期催化剂，诸如商业航天、脑机接口、低空经济、半导体等未来产业可继续保持关注。此外受益于科技投资热潮的原材料涨价方向也可视作科技产 业的衍生，如小金属、能源金属、化工新材料等同样存在机会。而传统高股息方向可做左侧关注，等待3-4月年报行情可迎来补涨。关注：1）AI硬件的产 业趋势仍然确立，并且主要AI大模型的tokens调用量持续走高。这意味着AI应用的高峰将在2026年出现，继续关注AI硬件的高增长趋势和AI应用从量变到 质变到来的机会。2）机器人国产化和走进老百姓生活依然是2026年比较确定的趋势，机器人产品将从人形机器人向四足机器人、功能型机器人扩展。以 此带来的传感器、控制器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。市场预期特斯拉人形机器人版本有可能更新，或将成为机器人板块新催化剂。3） 半导体国产化仍是大势所趋，关注其中的半导体设备、晶圆制造、半导体材料、IC 设计等。4）新能源材料受益于国内和海外储能需求的快速增长，各环 节均出现了一定的供不应求、价格上涨迹象，涨 ...

Market Overview - On January 15, A-shares experienced a slight fluctuation with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4112.60 points, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.41% to 14306.73 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% to 3367.92 points, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 0.55% to 1825.30 points. The total trading volume across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 29.385 billion yuan [1]. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry chain showed strong performance, with companies like Blue Arrow Electronics and Silicon Power Co. reaching a 20% increase in stock price. Other notable performers included Kangqiang Electronics and Unisplendour, which also hit the daily limit [2]. - TSMC reported a net profit of approximately 505.7 billion New Taiwan dollars for Q4 2025, marking a 35% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [2]. - Gartner's report indicated that global semiconductor revenue is projected to reach $793.449 billion in 2025, reflecting a 21.0% year-on-year growth [2]. - Guosen Securities noted that the semiconductor sector is experiencing unexpected prosperity, with price increases across multiple segments driven by AI demand, leading to a moderate recovery in industry profitability [2]. Tourism and Hospitality Sector - The tourism and hotel sector was notably active, with companies like Zhongxin Tourism achieving a consecutive two-day limit increase. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost the tourism market, with hotel bookings for popular cities increasing by 70% year-on-year as of January 14 [3]. - Data from Qunar indicated that hotel bookings in Hainan during the winter vacation to Spring Festival period have surged by over 150% year-on-year [3]. - According to Hanglv Zongheng, over 3 million domestic flight tickets were booked for the Spring Festival holiday as of January 9, with a daily booking increase of approximately 20% compared to the previous year [5]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Dongwu Securities' chief economist suggested that the current spring market rally is in its later stages, with potential for continued upward movement in indices despite a possible decrease in trading volume [6]. - Huajin Securities indicated that the spring market is likely to continue its slow upward trend, supported by ongoing liquidity and limited external risks. Focus should remain on growth sectors benefiting from policy and industry trends [6]. - Everbright Securities projected that the stock market in 2026 could outperform fundamentals due to liquidity support, with a focus on sectors with favorable economic conditions and cost-effectiveness [6].

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment ETFs experienced a counter-trend increase, with several related ETFs rising over 5% on January 15, despite a general market adjustment [1][4][10] - The largest gain was seen in the Huaxia Semiconductor Equipment ETF, which rose by 6.91%, while other semiconductor ETFs also showed significant increases [4][5][14] - The strong performance of the semiconductor equipment sector is attributed to the clear expansion plans of Chinese wafer fabs, leading to a substantial order backlog for domestic equipment manufacturers, with some orders extending to 2027 [4][10] Group 2 - On January 15, the ETF market was very active, with 21 ETFs exceeding a transaction volume of 10 billion yuan [2][11][18] - The majority of the ETFs with transaction volumes over 10 billion yuan were broad-based ETFs, including the CSI 500 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF, both surpassing 20 billion yuan in volume [2][7][18] - The inflow of funds into industry ETFs was notable, with software and satellite ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan on January 14 [3][12][20] Group 3 - The satellite-related ETFs, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced declines on January 15, with several products dropping over 9% [1][16][17] - The satellite industry ETFs, including the Satellite Industry ETF and the E Fund Satellite ETF, reported declines of 9.68% and 9.66%, respectively [6][17] - The general aviation ETFs also faced declines, with drops exceeding 6% [16][17] Group 4 - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued inflows due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including the appreciation of the RMB and the influx of insurance capital [10][21] - Investment strategies should focus on quality growth themes, particularly in semiconductor and advanced manufacturing sectors, as well as renewable energy [10][21]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "structural bull" phase, with expected limited corrections despite potential fluctuations [1][9]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - "Structural bull" refers to a stage where industry trends are not yet mature, leading to a premature increase in market capitalization and valuation, which may result in adjustments when perceived as overvalued [3][11]. - A "comprehensive bull" occurs when industry trends mature, driven by capital strength and optimistic market expectations, potentially leading to true bubbles [3][11]. - Two key judgments were made: the major bull market is nearing its end, and after the spring rally, a quarterly phase of correction may follow [3][11]. Group 2: Market Trends from 2025 Onwards - The market from 2025 to present exhibits typical characteristics of a "structural bull" year, with extreme positioning by institutional investors, particularly in the electronics and TMT sectors [4][12][14]. - There has been a noticeable upward trend in the net value of public funds and the accumulated profit effect for institutional investors, with new products from 2020 to 2021 recovering above the baseline [6][12][14]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the valuations of key sectors, with investors feeling that the AI industry chain, commercial aerospace, and AI applications are overvalued or have overly optimistic expectations [6][12][14]. Group 3: Spring Market Dynamics - The current spring market is characterized as a continuous expansion within the structural bull framework, with a focus on electronics and communication hardware [15]. - Since September 2025, new industry directions have emerged, including active performance in the power equipment and renewable energy sectors, and themes like commercial aerospace and AI applications have gained traction [15]. - The rapid increase in valuations to historically high levels often leads to stagnation and volatility, indicating a transition from unilateral growth to a waiting phase for new industry trends to develop [15].

Group 1 - The three major indices collectively declined, with the CSI Chip Industry Index (H30007.CSI) falling by 1.13%. Notable stocks within this index included Unigroup Guowei hitting the daily limit, Baiwei Storage rising nearly 5%, Jiangbolong increasing over 2%, and Shengmei Shanghai and Yake Technology both up nearly 2% [1] - The chip ETF Tianhong (159310) experienced a midday drop, with a transaction volume of 6.3427 million yuan and a real-time premium rate of 0.23% [1] - Unigroup Guowei announced a restructuring plan to acquire 100% of Ruineng Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, aiming to enhance its power semiconductor product matrix and complete its semiconductor industry chain layout [1] Group 2 - Haitong International's research report indicated that after a continuous market rise, a certain degree of fluctuation is expected this week, presenting a good opportunity to continue positioning for the spring market [2] - The A-share market outperformed the US stock market last week, with the sentiment for the spring market shifting back to the main line of commercial aerospace, expanding further into AI applications, nuclear fusion, and robotics [2] - The market is anticipated to further consolidate the "technology financing" narrative as IPOs from companies like Changxin, Yushu, Kunlunxin, and Chaogufen continue to progress [2]