Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the market due to multiple positive factors, with a solid foundation for a bull market and an early onset of spring market activity [1] Group 2 - From a macro policy perspective, 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, with multiple departments intensively introducing supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [1] Group 3 - On the funding side, institutional funds, represented by stock ETFs, have shown early signs of inflow in December, and the combination of insurance funds' "opening red" and foreign capital inflow driven by currency appreciation is expected to strengthen the spring market trend [1] Group 4 - In terms of fundamental expectations and industrial cycles, with the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate profits are anticipated to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, making the speculation on profit inflection points a crucial support for the market [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily focuses on the impact of the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) on various industries, particularly the **aviation, airport, and paper printing industries** [1][2]. Core Points and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation Benefits**: The appreciation of the RMB is beneficial for the aviation and airport sectors as it increases the foreign exchange gains for airlines with significant USD debt. Additionally, the paper printing industry benefits from lower import costs for raw materials, which may lead to a recovery in gross margins [1][2]. - **Core Assets Driven by Capital Flow**: There is a notable interest in core assets driven by capital flow, particularly blue-chip stocks with high Return on Equity (ROE) and strong competitive advantages. The Long江证券 Northbound Heavyweight 50 Index and the A500 Index are highlighted as key references for investment [1][2]. - **Valuation Recovery in Low-Valuation Sectors**: Sectors related to economic recovery, such as finance and real estate, present opportunities for valuation recovery. This mirrors the performance of insurance and real estate during the RMB appreciation in early 2023 [1][2]. - **Comparison with Previous RMB Appreciation Cycles**: The current RMB appreciation shares similarities with the 2020-2021 period, supported by industrial trends. However, the influence of foreign capital is less pronounced this time, with a shift towards short-term market dynamics rather than valuation recovery, emphasizing opportunities from technological revolutions [3][4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Short-term Focus**: Attention should be given to the paper and aviation sectors, which are expected to report better-than-expected results during the annual report phase due to the RMB appreciation [5]. - **Long-term Focus**: The market in 2025 is anticipated to be dominated by technology growth, with a focus on commercial aviation, robotics, and AI infrastructure and applications. The Hang Seng Technology Index may offer investment opportunities, while the A-share market should focus on infrastructure and manufacturing sectors, such as humanoid robots and commercial aviation [5]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The recent RMB appreciation has led to a significant increase in market trading volume, reaching over 1.9 trillion to 2 trillion, indicating a strong domestic support effect despite the absence of foreign capital [2]. - The current market environment is characterized by a mix of short-term trading opportunities rather than a clear valuation recovery trend, highlighting the importance of technological advancements in shaping investment strategies [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese asset revaluation process and its challenges, drawing comparisons with Japan's economic history in the 1990s and 2000s [1][5][12]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Chinese Asset Revaluation Drivers**: The revaluation is primarily driven by valuation enhancement, AI industry growth, and capital inflows. However, challenges such as population issues, real estate, and local government debt persist [1][4][12]. - **Market Performance**: The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise during the New Year holiday, with the Hang Seng Index up nearly 3%. However, the lack of substantial trading volume and capital inflow raises questions about the sustainability of this rally [2][4]. - **Sector Performance**: The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to perform strongly in 2026, driven by geopolitical factors, green energy transitions, and AI technology. Prices for gold, copper, and aluminum are anticipated to reach new highs due to supply constraints and demand recovery [2][19][21]. - **Policy Changes**: The 2025 national subsidy policy emphasizes quality and efficiency, with adjustments in energy efficiency product subsidies and a focus on stabilizing market expectations [1][13][23]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Japan's Economic Lessons**: Japan's experience in the 1990s highlights the importance of avoiding reliance on infrastructure investment, timely real estate reforms, and addressing structural issues to ensure long-term economic stability [5][11][12]. - **Investment Trends**: Historical data indicates that fixed asset investment in the first year of a five-year plan may not significantly exceed the previous year, suggesting a need for careful observation of specific investment volumes [14][15]. - **Service Consumption**: There are signs of improvement in service consumption, which is crucial for overall economic recovery. Monitoring upcoming data, especially during the Spring Festival, will be essential [20]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the need for China to learn from Japan's past economic challenges while navigating its own asset revaluation process. The focus on policy adjustments, sector performance, and investment trends will be critical for future economic stability and growth [1][5][12].

证券研究报告 从宏微观维度观测市场节奏 春潮涌动，万木争春 证券分析师 ：芦哲 执业证书编号：S0600524110003 联系邮箱：luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 ：唐遥衎 执业证书编号：S0600524120016 联系邮箱：tangyk@dwzq.com.cn 2026年1月5日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ✓ 2026年1月市场行情展望 ✓ 基金配置建议： 风险提示：发生预期外重大宏观事件；宏观数据不及预期；市场环境变化时，模型存在失效风险。 2 摘要 ✓ 观点：1月宏微观模型结果，呈现开门红评分 ➢ 1月整体走势判断：2026年1月，宏观择时模型的月度评分是0分，历史上该分数万得全A指数全月上涨概率为76.92%，平均涨幅为 3.18%。叠加日历效应中春季躁动的提前启动，我们对后续1月A股权益整体走势持非常乐观的观点。如果后续出现调整，温和调整的 概率偏高，不必过于担忧。结构上依旧推荐关注我们报告中的ETF组合。 ➢ 2025年最后一周大盘指数的日均成交量突破两万亿元，说明交易情绪逐步回暖。ETF资金流向中，本周机器人、工业有色、卫星通信 等方向的ETF净流入金额排名靠前，可以 ...

2026年第一个交易日，A股早盘高开高走，上证指数盘中重回4000点。 题材上，AI、保险、医药等多点开花。脑机接口板块早盘掀起涨停潮，倍益康30cm涨停，三博脑科、美好医疗、翔宇医疗20cm涨停。 开源证券策略研究团队在研报中表示，当前A股市场或已正式进入2026年"春季躁动"的预热与布局窗口。不过，与过往普涨行情不同，本轮躁动在宏观经济 数据尚待验证、增量资金稳步入场的背景下，呈现出鲜明的"结构先行、机会轮动"特征，包括商业航天、机器人、石油化工、有色等。 | | | Wind热门概念指数 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 脑机接口 | 医疗器械 | 存储器 | 保险 | CRO | 保险 | 医疗保健 | | 9.95% | 6.83% | 6.77% | 6.72% | 5.39% | 6.20% | 5.46% | | 医疗服务 | 摩尔线程 | 模拟芯片 | 基因检测 | 虚拟人 | 电脑硬件 | 化肥农药 | | 5.28% | 5.23% | 4.93% | 4.89% | 4.77% | 3.75% | 3.42% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The slow rise of the index since mid - December is a pre - emptive pricing driven by funds' forward - looking layout for 2026 investments, with high expectations for the cross - year market. In the short term, the market may be affected by overseas factors such as US geopolitical frictions and re - inflation expectations. If US inflation and the job market remain resilient, the overly optimistic Fed rate - cut expectations may be revised, affecting the domestic technology - growth style. Otherwise, the stock market may continue to rise in a volatile manner [3][11]. - In the medium term, global liquidity is expected to be in a state of resonant easing. The US may use re - inflation to resolve its huge debt, and its monetary policy is likely to be loose. In China, the monetary policy focuses on cross - cycle adjustment, and after the Spring Festival, fiscal policy is expected to be implemented in advance, with pro - cyclical styles having potential for a supplementary rise [12]. - The bond market last week was sluggish, with yields on various - term government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future. The bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the official completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Observation 3.1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the market was volatile, with major indices showing mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, the CSI 300 fell 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Market highlights were in commercial space, robotics, and AI application sectors, and most industries declined. The average daily trading volume was 2128.3 billion yuan, an increase of 163.2 billion yuan from the previous week [3][11]. - The US's raid on Venezuela may cause short - term increases in gold and crude oil prices and strengthen the US dollar. In the long term, it may form a long - term negative impact on international oil prices. Chinese asphalt and fuel oil products relying on Venezuelan heavy crude oil face risks of unstable raw material sources [13]. 3.1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.04), the bond market was sluggish, with yields on 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds rising. There are both positive and negative factors in the future, and the bond market is recommended to be treated with a neutral and volatile mindset [4][14]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2026.01.02), the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with different trends for various - term yields. The Fed's December minutes showed a likely 2 - time rate cut in 2026, but short - term employment data boosted the yield curve [14][15]. - Last week (2025.12.29 - 2025.12.31), the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 0.49%. In the primary market, 20 REITs were successfully issued in 2025, and 3 new REITs made progress last week [15]. 3.1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On December 31, 2025, the CSRC officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", marking the completion of the three - stage fee reform in the public fund industry. The formal version has made adjustments to the redemption fees of index funds and bond funds, which is beneficial in the short and long term. It also regulates other fees in the fund sales process to build a transparent, fair, and sustainable industry ecosystem [4][16][19]. 3.2 Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and the style distribution is balanced according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index (930950.CSI) [22][23]. 3.2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The value style includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [26][27]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Balanced - style fund managers balance stock valuation and growth. It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [28]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index**: The growth style aims to capture the performance and valuation double - click opportunities of high - growth companies. It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style classification. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth (H30355.CSI) [31]. 3.2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical) components. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 15 funds. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [35][36]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [36][37]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Electronics, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [40]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Construction, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 10 funds. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [45][46]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index**: Selects funds based on the intersection market value ratio of fund equity holdings and representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Securities' fund research and investment platform) [48][49]. 3.2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smooth and upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and passive index - type bond funds (inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds). The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index (H11025.CSI) [52]. 3.2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Aims at liquidity management, pursues a smooth and upward curve while controlling drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns and strict drawdown control. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [55]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Invests in medium - and long - term pure bond funds, pursues stable returns while controlling drawdowns, and selects 5 funds. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds and interest - rate bond funds according to market conditions [57]. 3.2.6 Fixed - Income Plus Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 10%, selects 10 funds each period, and focuses on fixed - income plus products with an equity center within 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index + 90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [59]. - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 20%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index + 80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [63]. - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income Plus Preferred Index**: The equity center is positioned at 30%, selects 5 funds each period, and selects fixed - income plus products with an equity center between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index + 70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index (CBA00303.CS) [66]. 3.2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Preferred Index**: Selects bond - type funds with an average convertible bond investment ratio of more than 60% in the latest period and more than 80% in the past four quarters as the sample space. It constructs an evaluation system and selects 5 funds [68]. - **QDII Bond Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [72]. - **REITs Fund Preferred Index**: The underlying assets are infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the type of underlying assets [74].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a strong opening on the first trading day of 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4000 points, closing up 1.38% at 4023.42 points [1] - Various sectors such as AI, insurance, and pharmaceuticals showed significant activity, with brain-computer interface stocks seeing a surge, including companies like BeiYikang and Sanbo Brain Science reaching their daily limit [1] - The AI application sector saw a notable explosion in the afternoon, with multiple companies hitting their daily limit, indicating strong investor interest and market momentum [1] Group 2 - Recent positive developments in the AI industry include Neuralink's announcement of large-scale production of brain-computer interface devices in 2026, marking a significant breakthrough in AI's integration with biological intelligence [2] - Domestic company Aowei New Materials launched the world's first "backpack-level" humanoid robot, promoting the development of embodied intelligence at lower costs [2] - The financing of over 50 million yuan by Silicon Valley startup Traini for its AI pet collar project expands the boundaries of AI in vertical consumer scenarios, enhancing the emotional interaction and health management service chain in the pet market [2] Group 3 - There is an increasing expectation for a "spring rally" in 2026, driven by favorable factors such as improved overseas conditions, currency appreciation, and proactive domestic policies [3] - The current A-share market is seen as entering a prelude to the "spring rally," characterized by structural leadership and opportunity rotation, unlike previous broad market rallies [3] - The technology sector is expected to maintain its leading position in the market, supported by high-risk appetite and favorable liquidity conditions [3][4] Group 4 - The current market risk appetite remains high, providing room for high-elasticity technology themes to continue their upward trajectory [4] - Despite the technology sector's overall valuation being relatively high, it has not yet reached a frenzy stage, indicating potential for further growth [4] - The strong performance of the AI sector in the US stock market is providing valuation support for corresponding sectors in the A-share market [4]

Group 1 - A-shares opened strong in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.38% to 4023.42 points, surpassing the 4000-point mark again [2][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.24%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.85%, with trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion yuan for five consecutive days [2][7] - Analysts believe that multiple positive factors have initiated a "spring rally" in A-shares, making future trends worth anticipating [2][7] Group 2 - BYD's new energy vehicle sales reached 4.6024 million units, making it the global leader in pure electric vehicle sales, surpassing Tesla [3][8] - Traditional automakers like Geely and Changan are accelerating their efforts in the "new energy + overseas expansion" dual strategy, while new entrants are experiencing increased competition [3][8] - China's automobile exports are expected to exceed 7 million units in 2025 [3][8] Group 3 - The pension fund, exceeding 7 trillion yuan, is undergoing a long-term assessment, with new guidelines aimed at improving long-term risk control and asset allocation [3][8] - This change is expected to lead to more long-term capital entering the market [3][8] Group 4 - Fosun Pharma plans to invest 1.412 billion yuan to acquire a controlling stake in Green Valley Pharmaceutical, which has raised regulatory concerns due to the uncertainty surrounding clinical trial results and drug approval [3][8] - The acquisition may put short-term pressure on Fosun Pharma's performance [3][8] Group 5 - China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation's commercial rocket company has increased its registered capital from 1 billion yuan to 1.396 billion yuan, indicating a growth phase in the commercial space sector [3][8] - A-share commercial aerospace stocks surged on January 5, reflecting market optimism [3][8] Group 6 - Domestic GPU companies, including Birran Technology, have seen significant market value declines post-IPO, with some stocks down nearly 40% [4][9] - These companies are currently unprofitable and face competitive challenges against international giants, highlighting the commercialization hurdles in the domestic GPU sector [4][9] Group 7 - Nike's sales in China fell by 16% year-on-year, with EBIT down by 49% for the fiscal year ending November 2025 [4][10] - Nike is restructuring its strategy in China by empowering regional leaders and focusing on brand image enhancement through reduced discount rates and upgraded stores [4][10] Group 8 - Several listed companies announced significant updates, including asset restructuring and performance forecasts, with notable transactions such as Tianlong's 232 million yuan acquisition of a 54.87% stake in Suzhou Haomi Bo [5][10] - Baillong Oriental expects a net profit growth of 46.34% to 70.73% in 2025 [5][10]

来源：@证券市场周刊微博 上证指数"九连阳"标志着"春季躁动"已经启动，"强者恒强"的有色和科技板块是最确定的主线。此外，随着价格水平的回升，周期板块的盈利 有望迎来改善，也是"春季躁动"值得布局的方向。 廖宗魁/文 如果说之前"春季躁动"还主要停留在市场的憧憬之中，那么随着上证指数自12月17日开始走出"九连阳"，再度逼近4000点关口，期盼已久 的"春季躁动"大幕已经徐徐拉开。 美国股市通常有圣诞行情，中国股市则普遍存在"春季躁动"。这种日历效应看似偶然，其背后也蕴含着必然性。美国经济是消费驱动型，在圣 诞节前后往往是消费的旺季，消费的提升会增加投资者对美国企业盈利的预期，从而推动美股上涨。而在中国，"一年之计在于春"，岁末年初 是一系列政策密集部署的时期，银行信贷的投放很大一部分也会集中在一季度，政策和信贷的预期很容易催生出"春季躁动"行情。 投资者该如何布局当下的"春季躁动"呢？"强者恒强"是"春季躁动"中最确定的主线，从"九连阳"的"春季躁动"预演行情看，有色和通信板块再 度领涨。2025年上市公司的盈利改善是略滞后于经济复苏的，随着"反内卷"的深入推进和促内需政策的持续发力，PPI从底部回升，20 ...

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market maintained volatility with major indices showing mixed results during the three trading days from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext fell by 0.59% and 1.25% respectively [3] - The highlights were in thematic stocks related to commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with significant gains in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media, while public utilities, food and beverage, and electrical equipment saw declines [3] - The average daily trading volume increased to 21,283 billion yuan, up by 1,632 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [3] - The gradual rise in indices since mid-December is attributed to high expectations for the year-end market, driven by forward-looking investments for 2026 [3] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and inflation expectations are influencing market sentiment, with a focus on upcoming non-farm employment and inflation data [3] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed weak performance, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 4.50 basis points to 1.33%, the 10-year yield up by 0.51 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.96 basis points to 2.25% [6] - Factors influencing the bond market include reduced selling pressure from profit-taking at year-end and the implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees, which have eased concerns among institutional investors [6][7] - However, the central bank's stance indicates a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, and there are ongoing concerns regarding long-term bond supply [7] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on December 31, 2025, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reform in the public fund industry [8] - The new regulations provide detailed guidelines on fund subscription and redemption fees, with specific provisions for index and bond funds, allowing for more flexible fee structures [8][9] - This adjustment aims to prevent large-scale redemptions that could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and to mitigate liquidity risks during bear market phases [9]